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The Guardian
28-05-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
‘Most dangerous moment since 1995': renegade Dodik leaves Bosnia in limbo
The members of the elite Hungarian police unit crossed the border in civilian clothes, putting on their uniforms only once they had reached their destination. After arriving in Banja Luka, the capital of the Serbian half of Bosnia and Herzegovina, they posed in green fatigues with balaclava-wearing Serbian police. Officially, the Hungarians had come as trainers, but the mission was announced only after their presence was reported in the local press. The supposedly sovereign Bosnian state government in Sarajevo had not been informed that up to 300 paramilitary police officers from another country would be crossing the frontier. The timing was key: the Hungarians had arrived on the eve of a pivotal, potentially explosive, date. On 26 February, Milorad Dodik, the firebrand president of the Serb-run republic, Republika Srpska, was sentenced to a year in prison and a six-year ban from holding office for separatist actions. Dodik, who has run the entity since 2006, was convicted for having defied the envoy of the international community in Bosnia, a position created to ensure implementation of the Dayton agreement that ended the 1992-1995 war. Technically the supreme power in the country, the high representative has the power to impose or annul laws and sack officials. Responding to the ruling, Dodik told his supporters the conviction was 'nonsense' and called on them to 'be cheerful'. He then said that Bosnia and Herzegovina had 'ceased to exist' and, in an apparent move towards secession, had local laws passed that ban the presence of national law enforcement or judicial officials on Republika Srpska soil. Dodik insisted he would not appeal against the verdict as he did not recognise the court's jurisdiction, but noted he could not stop his lawyers appealing. The lawyers did so and the appeal is due to be heard in the next few months. The verdict and Dodik's response represented a moment when Bosnia's long-term dysfunction tipped into a dangerous crisis, that could split Europe. It showed that in a squeeze, the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, would actively side with Vladimir Putin and allies such as Dodik rather than Brussels. During almost two decades in power, Dodik has been a frequent visitor to Moscow, showing up there on Tuesday for the third time since March. Serbia's authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vučić, also routinely backs Dodik in his standoff with Sarajevo and western capitals. Vučić went to Banja Luka in solidarity, after what he called the court's 'unlawful, anti-democratic' verdict. The two men met again in Belgrade on Monday, as Dodik made his way to Moscow. The ruling and its aftermath also showed that, 30 years after conflict in Bosnia killed more than 100,000 people, its underlying divisions are far from being resolved. Few expect a return to war, but the country remains a flashpoint in the heart of Europe with potential for strife and violence. The war that was ended by the Dayton accords was a horrendous conflict that brought genocide back to the heart of Europe. The accords will be commemorated this week by a Nato meeting in the Ohio city that gave the peace deal its name. But while Dayton stopped the killing, it also simply froze the conflict by splitting the country into two halves: Republika Srpska and a Federation of Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks) and Croats. Dayton's critics denounced it as a reward for ethnic cleansing. The bandage that stemmed the bloodshed has hardened over the decades into a straitjacket that has prevented Bosnia from developing into a functional state. It established a multi-tiered system of governance that favoured nationalist parties, paralysis and corruption. Since coming to power, Dodik, the Republika Srpska president and leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, has blocked reforms and European integration with threats of secession and a return to conflict. But there are signs he is growing politically more frail: Bosnian officials and foreign diplomats in Sarajevo confirmed reporting in the Hungarian press that said Orbán's paramilitaries had been in Banja Luka to extract Dodik if he found himself cornered and had to make a run for it. That has not happened yet, but experts say Dodik's departure remains a strong possibility: in the past few months, the Serbian leader's family has approached a senior western official to negotiate terms for his departure, the Guardian has been told.. But it is not a foregone conclusion that Dodik will choose exile. Instead, he may continue to try to defy the sentence – and international community – and cling to office behind a shield of his paramilitary police. For the country itself, the limbo is full of risk. 'It's very clearly the most dangerous moment in Bosnia since 1995,' said Jasmin Mujanović, a Bosnian political analyst. 'It's a crisis that can only end with his arrest or if he opts ultimately to flee.' There was an attempt to detain Dodik in April, after the passage of legislation deemed extreme even by his standards. The Bosnian prosecutor issued arrest warrants for him and two other Serbian officials, and six weeks later there was a tense standoff in east Sarajevo, when Serbian police prevented agents of the Bosnia State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) from arresting Dodik. The SIPA agents withdrew. The appeal judgment on the February verdict is due by the end of the year but it is generally expected by the summer. If it upholds Dodik's conviction and sentence, the ban on holding office would take effect, potentially triggering new presidential elections in Republika Srpska and the possible victory of an opposition coalition prepared to collaborate against ethnic boundaries and revive Bosnia's EU membership bid. It could also mean that another, more determined, attempt may be made to arrest him, and Bosnia could ask the small European peacekeeping force, Eufor, for at least a show of support. 'The only mystery is whether Dodik will accept the ruling and leave his premises in the presidential palace,' said Igor Crnadak, a former Bosnian foreign minister and senior member of the Party of Democratic Progress, part of the Serb opposition bloc. 'Or will he refuse to leave his position? I don't think anybody knows what he will do.' He added: 'I think that Bosnia is at the turning point.' Christian Schmidt, a German former minister serving as the current high representative, insists that, for now, it is a political rather than security crisis. 'How do we solve this kind of challenge without an escalation? I think this is something which needs a lot of diplomacy and talks behind the scenes for the moment,' Schmidt said, but he added: 'I do not see that Mr Dodik meets the requirements for a responsible member of the political leadership in this country.' Last week, Schmidt reported to the UN security council on the worsening situation and appealed for international engagement to forestall a disaster. The signs at the council meeting were not encouraging. The Russian delegation left the chamber while Schmidt was speaking, and the Serbian member currently holding the chair in Bosnia's rotating trilateral presidency, Željka Cvijanović, flew in for the occasion to try to turn the tables on Schmidt, questioning his legitimacy and accusing him of 'dictatorship' and 'repression'. At the EU level, action has also been limited. Hungary has so far blocked sanctions against Dodik, with help from Croatia. The financial pressure on Dodik is mounting, however. The US, UK, Germany, Austria, Poland and Lithuania have all taken individual punitive measures against him. His hope that Trump's restoration to power in Washington would lead to a swift suspension of US sanctions has not been fulfilled; the new administration has little interest in Bosnia. If his appeal fails, Crnadak suggested he follow the same advice Dodik once gave to the Bosnian Serb wartime leaders when they were on the run from the war crimes tribunal in The Hague: give yourself up. 'What you are doing now is directly affecting Serbian people and Republika Srpska,' Crnadak said. 'If you love your people, you will go to the court and fight for your innocence there.'
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Wanted Bosnian Serb leader makes third visit to Russia
. SARAJEVO: Bosnian Serb political leader Milorad Dodik announced on Tuesday he was in Moscow, a challenge to Bosnia's central authorities, who have issued a national arrest warrant against him. The president of Republika Srpska (RS) which is the ethnic Serb half of Bosnia was given a prison sentence in February by a court in Sarajevo but the Balkan country's police forces have not arrested him. The court sentenced him to one year in jail and banned him from holding public office for six years for not complying with rulings by the international envoy overseeing Bosnia's 1995 peace accords. Since the end of the war in 1995, Bosnia has been divided into two autonomous entities - the Republika Srpska and the Croat-Muslim Federation - connected by a weak central government. In response to the Sarajevo court verdict, the parliament in the Republika Srpska passed a law prohibiting the central police and judicial authorities from operating in the Serb entity. That lead to the central Bosnian judicial authorities issuing a national arrest warrant for Dodik on charges of undermining "constitutional order". "I am here again," Dodik wrote on X of his third trip to Russia since the arrest warrant was issued in March. RS state television said he had arrived in the Russian capital overnight and was expected to attend an international security conference. He was also due to meet top Russian security official Sergei Shoigu, Bosnian media said. En route to Moscow, Dodik stopped over in Belgrade on Monday to meet Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Bosnia's central judicial authorities asked Interpol to take action against Dodik, who has led the RS since 2006, but the international police force has not issued a red notice against him. A red notice is a request to law enforcement worldwide to locate and provisionally arrest a person pending extradition or other legal action. Local media alleged Interpol's decision was made at the request of Serbia and Hungary, who had condemned Dodik's trial as "political". Russia has also criticised his conviction.
Bloomberg
22-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
EU Nations Mull Options to Rein In Separatist Leader in Bosnia
By Misha Savic and France and Germany have drafted a set of options to financially and politically isolate, including with sanctions, officials in Bosnia's Serb-majority region whose bid to secede has plunged the Balkan country into crisis, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg News. The key target is President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, who's attempted to claim further autonomy and possibly independence for the Serb-majority half of the country, recently banning Bosnia's federal institutions in the territory. The goal of the proposed measures is to compel Dodik to abandon those policies, the document read.
Straits Times
13-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Poland to ban Bosnian Serb leader Dodik from its territory
FILE PHOTO: Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik arrives at the Kremlin to attend a festive concert, held on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Moscow, Russia, May 8, 2025. Alexander Kryazhev/Host agency RIA Novosti/Handout via REUTERS WARSAW - Poland will ban Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik from entering its territory, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday, amid a political crisis in the Balkan state where he is wanted for attacking the constitutional order. The decision means that Poland joins Germany and Austria in barring Dodik, who triggered Bosnia's biggest political crisis since the end of the country's war in the 1990s by allegedly defying rulings by the international envoy whose role is to prevent the multi-ethnic state from slipping back into conflict. "A procedure has been initiated regarding a national entry ban for Milorad Dodik," the Polish foreign ministry said in an email. "The procedure is ongoing. It will be finalised in a few days." The press office of Dodik's party did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. Bosnia's international peace envoy, Christian Schmidt, said in April he had ordered a halt of all budget allocations for the Dodik's party. Bosnia's state police, SIPA, tried to arrest Dodik in April but were stopped by his armed police forces. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Poland to ban Bosnian Serb leader Dodik from its territory
WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland will ban Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik from entering its territory, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday, amid a political crisis in the Balkan state where he is wanted for attacking the constitutional order. The decision means that Poland joins Germany and Austria in barring Dodik, who triggered Bosnia's biggest political crisis since the end of the country's war in the 1990s by allegedly defying rulings by the international envoy whose role is to prevent the multi-ethnic state from slipping back into conflict. "A procedure has been initiated regarding a national entry ban for Milorad Dodik," the Polish foreign ministry said in an email. "The procedure is ongoing. It will be finalised in a few days." The press office of Dodik's party did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. Bosnia's international peace envoy, Christian Schmidt, said in April he had ordered a halt of all budget allocations for the Dodik's party. Bosnia's state police, SIPA, tried to arrest Dodik in April but were stopped by his armed police forces.
