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Telegraph
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
How Iran could retaliate against a US strike
As Donald Trump weighs up whether to join the war in Iran, his defence chiefs will be gaming out the possible retaliation. The US Air Force has flown to Europe at least three dozen aerial refuelling tankers, used to boost the range of heavy bombers and keep fighter jets in the air for longer. And Washington has put its 40,000 troops deployed in the Middle East, including in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, on high alert amid escalating tensions. With US forces seemingly poised to join the fight, here are the top threats they must consider. Missiles The most conventional of Iran's possible retaliations against America would be through its arsenal of ballistic missiles. The Islamic regime has launched hundreds at Israel in response to the Jewish state's ongoing campaign to cripple its nuclear programme and military capabilities. American intelligence officers have identified Iranian preparations for missile strikes on US military bases in the Middle East, according to anonymous officials cited in a report by the New York Times. The US military has a presence at no fewer than 20 bases in the Middle East and the surrounding regions. The majority of these would be within the 2,000km range of Iran's Sejil-2 ballistic missile. Its bases in Iraq and Syria would likely be first on the hit list, with Tehran then turning its attention to outposts in Arab countries. Any attempt to strike US military facilities in the Middle East is likely to be less effective than the ballistic missile attack on two US bases in Iraq in January 2020 to avenge the assassination of Qassim Solemaini, ordered by Donald Trump at the end of his first term. Although the attacks on the two American bases caused no fatalities, partly because Iran had issued a warning in advance, 110 servicemen suffered concussions and other brain injuries because of the force of the impact. So great was the cause of the damage that it may have deterred Mr Trump from retaliating. Washington also has two hulking aircraft carriers, with a third en route, deployed to the Middle East, which would be considered prime targets for Iranian missiles. Targets Israel has proven just how hard ballistic missiles, which are fired up high into the earth's atmosphere before travelling to ground at supersonic speeds, can be to intercept, even with what is considered to be one of the most sophisticated air defence systems in the world. The US military possesses at least two tried and tested surface-to-air systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles - Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense. And they've slowly been redeploying these systems from Asia to the Middle East for months amid mounting tensions between its ally Israel and Iran, and its Islamist proxies. Its bases in Iraq - Erbil & Ain al‑Asad Air Base - have Patriot batteries positioned at them, which have been previously used to fend off militant attacks. American commanders also ordered for Patriots to be removed from South Korea to be placed at Isa Air Base, Bahrain, and Al Udeid Air Base in recent months. Capacity Of course, mass barrages of ballistic missiles can confuse and overwhelm these systems, as witnessed in both Israel and Ukraine. US servicemen and women will, however, be quietly confident that the Israel Defense Force has significantly reduced Iran's capacity to launch hundreds of missiles at once. Iranian salvos have drastically shrunk in size in recent days. What started as 100-projectile blitzes aimed at Israel has been reduced to just dozens of missiles being fired off at any one time. Iran's production capacity has been significantly eroded, with Israel striking various elements of the supply chain in recent days. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert, said: 'Iran is heavily constricted in the missile domain. 'The likelihood that Iran can cause a large amount of damage is very, very slim. 'It could also be counterproductive because if you strike American infrastructure, there will be an even greater cost because you risk the Americans getting involved and really getting involved. So I think that's also a huge political consideration.' Proxies Iran's network of regional proxies was always considered its first line of defence. Hezbollah and Hamas were responsible for keeping Israel's military occupied and unable to strike at the Islamic Republic. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels also distracted the West by targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Militant armed by Iran have been responsible for deadly attacks on the US base in Iraq, using one-way attack drones. It's most likely that the Houthi rebels will once again resume targeting American shipping containers travelling through the Red Sea. The militants had briefly paused attacks on American ships after Donald Trump ramped up strikes on the group. In Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah would likely carry out its threat to 'act directly against its [US] interests and bases across the region', if the US president joins the war against Iran. But Israel's decimation of these proxy groups - chiefly Hamas and Hezbollah - in the past year is one saving grace that will comfort the Americans. 'The fact that virtually the only missiles and drones that are launched against Israel right now are coming from Iran is striking,' Dmitri Alperovitch, chair of the Silverado Policy Accelerator think tank in Washington, said. Strait of Hormuz Tucked between the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf's western flank, lies one of Tehran's most powerful weapons against the West. Nothing hurts a government more than the price of oil, and this narrow stretch of water between Oman and Iran is vital in the global supply. The Islamic Republic has the means to effectively shut down access to the strait, crippling shipping through the region, as there are no alternative routes. The threat of its closure is perhaps why the USS Nimitz, one of America's largest aircraft carriers, is being moved into the region. Iran could quite easily close the strait by mining it, repositioning mobile ballistic missile launchers, and using maritime drones. It employed similar tactics during the so-called Tanker Wars of the 1980s – although it never fully succeeded, largely due to Royal Navy and later US Navy efforts to escort commercial vessels through the Gulf. This, US officials fear, would keep American naval warships in the Persian Gulf. 'Mine clearance is one of the US Navy's few weaknesses,' Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy officer, wrote in the Telegraph this week. For Tehran, closing the strait is one of the most likely ways of bringing the US into the conflict. Mr Trump was happy to expend billions of dollars in strikes against Houthi rebels, the Iranian-backed militia, when they attempted to snarl up Western shipping through the Red Sea. The US president is acutely aware of global oil prices, and with a fifth of global petroleum shipped through Hormuz. Any blockages would likely lead to him sanctioning some strikes to restore shipping. The other fact that makes this option particularly nuclear for Tehran is that China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, uses the strait for shipping its purchases. This hasn't stopped Iran from meddling with shipping through GPS navigation interference. Two tankers collided and caught fire on the narrow stretch of water after allegedly being impacted by the disruption. US officials have claimed the GPS meddling originated from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, located just north of the strait. Some analysts believe Iran is unlikely to carry out such threats, fearing it would provoke Arab states into the conflict and complete Tehran's global isolation. Oil fields If the Iranian regime believed it faced an existential crisis or the irreversible destruction of its nuclear programme, it could play what analysts describe as its 'last big card' by also attacking energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The world got a glimpse of what could be to come in 2019 when drone and missile strikes hit the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility – but both the US and Saudi governments accused Iran of orchestrating the attacks. The attacks temporarily knocked out half of Saudi Arabia's oil production, triggering a sharp spike in global energy prices. Abqaiq, which processes seven million barrels of crude a day – more than two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's production capacity – would almost certainly be a prime target if Iran followed through on its threats. Other potential targets include oil and LNG terminals in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as oil tankers moving through the region's waters. In May 2019, limpet mines damaged three tankers and a bunkering ship off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE. No one claimed responsibility, but Western officials suspected Iranian frogmen were behind the attacks. Cyber Over the years, Iran and its regional proxies have claimed responsibility for numerous cyber attacks against Israel. They include destroying data, phishing campaigns and information operations. Given the threat poses a danger to both civilian and military worlds, the US government has been appealing for information on Iranian hackers responsible for targeting critical infrastructure. A $10 million reward was posted for details on a group, known as CyberAv3ngers, who US officials have linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp. Experts, however, say Iran may struggle to properly deploy cyber attacks at a time when its regime is under threat. 'The regime is under existential threat. Iranian cyber is a toy,' Mr Alperovitch said, adding that it was unlikely Tehran would lean on this as a serious offensive tool against the Americans.
Asharq Al-Awsat
2 days ago
- Politics
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Lebanon at Risk as Iran Uses Its Airspace, Israel Responds
Lebanon found itself entangled in the latest flare-up between Israel and Iran, as its skies became a battleground for Iranian missiles and drones, and Israeli interceptor rockets throughout Friday night and into Saturday morning. Residents across several towns and cities endured a tense and sleepless night, fearing the fallout of missiles potentially crashing into populated areas. The country's airspace, which was shut down Friday evening as a security precaution, was reopened at 10 a.m. on Saturday. Minister of Public Works and Transport, Fayez Rasamny, speaking from Beirut's international airport during an inspection visit, said the facility would remain open 'unless an emergency beyond our control arises'. The Ministry of Public Works said in a statement that the airspace closure and accompanying emergency measures were taken 'strictly for security reasons,' stressing that 'the safety of passengers and airport facilities remains a top priority.' Middle East Airlines (MEA), Lebanon's national carrier, rescheduled several flights to and from Beirut after passengers were left stranded overnight at the airport due to cancellations and delays. Lebanon's skies have become a corridor for conflict in the intensifying Israeli-Iranian standoff, sparking growing fears among Lebanese officials and analysts who warn the country is losing control over its own airspace - and may be paying the price. Beirut lacks the leverage to deter Iran from using its airspace to launch attacks on Israel, nor can it stop Israeli forces from intercepting drones and missiles mid-flight over Lebanese territory. With Iranian projectiles and Israeli countermeasures crossing through the same skies, experts warn Lebanon faces mounting military and civilian risks as long as it remains entangled in the regional confrontation. 'The passage of Iranian missiles and drones through Lebanese airspace toward Israel presents serious military and security threats on multiple levels,' retired Brigadier General Saeed Al-Qazaz told Asharq Al-Awsat. He warned that turning Lebanon into a de facto battleground increases the risk of missiles falling into populated areas -- as seen in the Bekaa Valley during the overnight bombardment between Friday and Saturday. 'Israeli attempts to intercept these threats over Lebanon could result in casualties on the ground, whether due to guidance malfunctions or fuel depletion. The fragmentation of these weapons is just as dangerous as a direct hit,' explained Al-Qazaz. One missile reportedly landed late Friday in the outskirts of Beit Shama, west of Baalbek, sending shockwaves through the valley and stoking fears of further fallout. Airspace Safety and Legal Concerns Al-Qazaz also voiced grave concern over aviation safety, saying Lebanon's crowded airspace could become a deadly zone for civilian aircraft. 'There is an immediate threat to air navigation, and the risk of a commercial aircraft being struck is real. That justifies the need to close the airspace entirely in such circumstances,' he said. Using the airspace of a sovereign nation without consent, he added, constitutes 'a flagrant violation of international law,' citing the 1944 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, which affirms a state's sovereignty over its own skies. He stressed that the Lebanese government bears responsibility and 'must not allow missiles and drones to pass through its airspace without taking action'. International legal liability could arise if any damage is caused to third countries by these aerial operations. At the same time, Al-Qazaz pointed out a double standard: 'While Israel uses the airspace of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq without consequence, these countries fail to respond or prevent such actions. Jordan, however, has recently intercepted projectiles to avoid international accountability'. Calls for International Action Despite Lebanon's limited capacity to influence either side in the conflict, Al-Qazaz said the government could still lodge a formal complaint with the UN Security Council over repeated airspace violations. 'Lebanon can protest to the international community over the use of its skies by both Israel and Iran, even if no concrete outcome is expected,' he said. 'But remaining silent while missiles continue to pass overhead exposes Lebanon to greater danger, undermines its sovereignty, and drags it further into a military confrontation it did not choose'. As tensions simmer and skies remain contested, Lebanon finds itself navigating a high-stakes crisis with few tools to shield its people, or its sovereignty.
Egypt Independent
4 days ago
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Iran unleashes advanced missile barrage on Israeli cities, escalating regional tensions
Iran has launched a new wave of ballistic missiles targeting areas within occupied Jerusalem, Haifa, and the capital, Tel Aviv. This military operation is seen as a retaliation for an unprecedented Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear reactors and the assassination of a significant number of military commanders and nuclear scientists. According to Missile Threat, a website specializing in missile detection, Iran is deploying high-impact ballistic missilesto challenge Israel's Iron Dome defense system. The Iron Dome typically succeeds in repelling most attacks, protecting Israeli territory from such assaults. Data published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that Iran possesses over 15 active missile systems, ranging from short and medium-range missiles to cruise missiles and various ballistic missiles currently under development. Among the most notable missiles, as per Missile Threat, are: The 'Sejjil' is an operational medium-range missile capable of striking targets up to 2,000 km away. The 'Khorramshahr,' also a 2,000 km range missile, though it remains under development. The 'Ghadr-1' and 'Emad,' with ranges between 1,700 and 1,950 km. Both are upgraded versions of the 'Shahab-3' missile. Short-range missiles like the 'Fateh-110,' 'Zolfaghar,' and 'Qiam-1,' boasting ranges between 300 and 800 km . These are considered crucial for any limited confrontation with neighboring countries or U.S. forces in the Gulf. Iran's military strategy goes beyond just ballistic missiles, incorporating cruise missiles like the 'Soumar,' with a range of 2,000 to 3,000 km. These are engineered for low-altitude flight to bypass air defense systems. The development of anti-ship missiles such as the 'Raad' further extends Iran's threat capability into regional waters. Military analysts assert that this combination of ballistic and cruise missiles allows Iran to execute surprise strikes on land or sea. This dual approach also grants them a significant ability to overwhelm advanced air defense systems like the Iron Dome or Patriot. This growing arsenal poses a clear danger to Israeli targets, as most of Iran's medium-range missiles (1,000-2,000 km) can cover the entire territory of Israel. They also represent a direct threat to U.S. bases in the Gulf, Iraq, and Syria. The presence of these capabilities is causing increasing concern among security and defense agencies in Tel Aviv and Washington. This apprehension is compounded by Tehran's continued missile development despite international sanctions, and its reported cooperation in this field with countries like Russia and North Korea, according to Western intelligence reports.
