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Ahead of assembly polls: Amit Shah's ‘Mission Tamil Nadu'
The rehearsals for the assembly elections 2026 have begun with the recent visit of the Union Home Minister Amit Shah to Tamil Nadu last week. The stated objective is to review the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s preparedness and strengthening of ties with its allies. There is a marked difference in the tone and confidence of the BJP in approaching the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. The hard push from the above is for all to witness with the grand bargains and negotiations underway with friends and allies. There are divergent perspectives about the prospects and limitations because of the ground realities.
Amit Shah's attack against the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its leadership conveys the similar disdain and antipathy that BJP holds against Mamta Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. He has gone on record stating that both TMC in West Bengal and DMK in Tamil Nadu will be defeated in the next assembly elections. Amit Shah also reiterated with the same intensity that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP will form the next government in Tamil Nadu. Though the ground realities in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are vastly different, the BJP's aggressive approach to the Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2026 cannot be overlooked. There are inter-party conflicts and intra-party issues within the NDA alliance consisting of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Desia Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) and the BJP itself.
There are core concerns about the electoral ties between the BJP and AIADMK over critical issues of alliance leadership and the AIADMK factional politics stirred and preserved by the BJP. There are hurdles and uncertainties that cannot be pushed aside with Edappadi Palanisamy remaining unmoved over the role, leadership and seat share within the NDA alliance. And his lack of enthusiasm for the reconciliation with O Paneerselvam, Sasiskala and TD Dinakaran is a matter of pragmatic challenge of electoral coordination. BJP's major challenge in Tamil Nadu is not how to run its own party but how to control and influence the AIADMK leadership as well as manage the contradictions of the factional politics. The family feud within the PMK reflecting the father-son duel and the rupture in the ties between AIADMK and DMDK are not favourable conditions for the NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu.
Then why does Amit Shah talk aggressive about the change of regime in Tamil Nadu? All said and done about the shortcomings in the BJP-AIADMK alliance, BJP has been developing a parallel strategy of challenging the DMK with or without an alliance with the AIADMK. BJP has also been focusing on strengthening the organsiational machinery in Tamil Nadu. Amit Shah's meeting with the party office bearers from the state, district and mandal levels is reaffirming this objective. First, this is the real meaning of 'Mission Tamil Nadu' by overtaking the AIADMK not only as an alternative to the DMK but to redefine the electoral game in Tamil Nadu beyond the major Dravidian parties and their allies. Edappadi Palanisamy understands this ploy more than others but is helpless with his own party and flanks broken. Secondly, the BJP is not hesitant to use and apply the religious card to sway the voters like the Lord Murugan Devotees Conference scheduled next week this month. The Madurai Meenakshi Amman temple becoming a runway for the political campaign in the forthcoming assembly elections in 2026 is part of a larger design to draw the Hindu votes and spread a north centric political narrative in Tamil Nadu politics. This is also another version of BJP's growing involvement in Durga Puja festival in West Bengal in order to identify and broaden the socio-cultural basis for the party in West Bengal.
BJP is keen to strengthen its presence and build stakes in Tamil Nadu politics based on the strength of its power at the Centre and the challenge of the final frontier to extend Hindutva politics. The party is more confident after its success in Odisha and Delhi and wants to push itself against the DMK with a belief that DMK is no longer invincible with an aggression matching its methods in West Bengal. There is a need to pause and reflect on the prospects and limitations of this aggressive posture and strategy in Tamil Nadu politics. The socio-political and historical roots of communal polarisation in West Bengal are vastly different from Tamil Nadu and the BJP's strategy to mobilise voters on religious cards may not be successful.
There are significant issues like the language question, challenges of delimitation, the role and functioning of NITI Aayog (National Institute for Transforming India) and the Centre-state relations needs more attention and understanding to go into the electoral battle of 2026.
( Manivannan is a scholar-social activist in areas of education, human rights and sustainable development through an initiative 'Multiversity.')
