11 hours ago
Will Venezuela, Mexico benefit from Iran war oil price surge? Yes, but no
The conflict in Iran has triggered speculation that soaring global oil prices could deliver a windfall for Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia and other Latin American oil producers. But surprisingly, most oil experts say that's not likely to happen.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and other financial institutions say oil prices could surge beyond $100 a barrel if Iran were to interrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 25% of world oil shipments. But most are quick to add that the impact of such disruption would probably be limited and short-lived.
First, there is an oversupply of oil in world markets, partly because the global economy is growing more slowly than expected due to President Trump's tariff wars. Five days after Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, world oil prices remained below their 2024 average of $80 per barrel, according to a Deutsche Bank analysis.
Second, Iran is a relatively small oil exporter, producing about 3% of the world's output. And due to U.S. and European sanctions, Iran sells 90% of its oil to a single country — China. If Iran's oil production stopped, it would affect mainly China, although it currently has high oil inventories.
Third, in the most catastrophic scenario — if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. or European actions in support of Israel — Washington would most likely intervene militarily to reopen that vital trade passage. And China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states — rhetoric aside — would probably welcome a reopening of their oil supply lanes, analysts say.
Francisco J. Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute, told me that in the worst-case scenario — an extended disruption of the Strait of Hormuz that dramatically drives up world oil prices — there would be a 'net gain' for Latin American oil exporters.
'Guyana, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and even Brazil and Argentina, to some extent, would see a positive impact on their balance sheets,' Monaldi told me. 'Mexico has become a net oil importer, but higher prices would also benefit Pemex's [state-owned oil company's] revenues.'
He added, 'Of course, such gains could be somewhat offset by negative secondary effects, like a global recession. But the net outcome for these countries would be an important surge in their revenues and exports.'
However, when I asked Monaldi about the chances of a prolonged disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, he said that it's unlikely to happen. The U.S. Navy would re-open that shipping lane immediately, and oil prices would soon return to normal, he added.
'We could see a temporary spike in oil prices, but there shouldn't be a long-term impact,' he concluded.
By the same token, oil importers such as Chile, Cuba and other Caribbean countries would have to spend more money in the short run to make their purchases, but their pain may not last too long.
Interestingly, the World Bank, which earlier this month issued a report forecasting a major slowdown in the U.S. and global economy — partly due to Trump's tariffs — is not anticipating changes in its economic projection as a result of the Iran war.
Valerie Mercer-Backman, the lead author of the Latin American section of the World Bank's forecast, told me that despite the latest Iran conflict, the general trend was toward a 'slight decline' in world oil prices. The war may produce a temporary spike, 'but we don't see that the latest geopolitical events will have a major impact on our forecast,' she said.
This brings me back to the conclusion that the Venezuelan dictatorship — perhaps Latin America's biggest potential winner of a global oil price hike — along with Colombia and Mexico may get, at best, a brief respite if the Iran war disrupts world oil shipping lanes. But it's not likely to be enough to help Venezuela emerge from its severe economic crisis or to solve the current troubles of Mexico and Colombia.
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