Latest news with #MonetaryPolicyMeeting
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
RBI MPC Meet Live: All eyes on Malhotra & co amid expectations of third consecutive rate cut this year
06 Jun 2025 | 07:14:20 AM IST RBI MPC Meet Live News Updates: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy today at 10 AM. RBI Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its bi-monthly monetary policy today, with expectations running high for another rate cut to boost economic growth, which has been facing pressure from global trade Sanjay Malhotra is set to present the monetary policy statement at 10 am, capping the three-day deliberations of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that began on June 4. The central bank has already slashed the key repo rate by 25 basis points each in February and April this largely anticipate another 25 basis points cut, continuing the current easing cycle. However, a research note from the State Bank of India has projected a sharper cut of 50 basis points, citing the need for stronger policy support amid weakening global trade a statement on Thursday, the Reserve Bank noted that the impact of the 50-bps cumulative cut since February has already prompted several banks to lower their repo-linked external benchmark-based lending rates (EBLRs) and marginal cost of funds-based lending rates (MCLR). A reduction in the repo rate generally leads to lower lending rates, translating into reduced EMIs for both households and six-member MPC includes three RBI officials—Governor Sanjay Malhotra, Deputy Governor M Rajeshwar Rao, and Executive Director Rajiv Ranjan—and three external members appointed by the government. The external panelists are Nagesh Kumar, Director-General of the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development; economist Saugata Bhattacharya; and Professor Ram Singh of the Delhi School of Economics. Show more The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain its focus on supporting the ongoing recovery in economic growth momentum, Careedge Ratings said in a data intelligence firm added in the report that the rate-cut cycle that began in February is likely to continue, with a further 25-bps reduction in the repo rate expected at the June meeting, while retaining an "accommodative stance"."The healthy growth momentum and the already easing money market rates may prompt the RBI to take incremental steps in policy easing, reducing the likelihood of a larger rate cut in this meeting," CareEdge said in the report further added, "We anticipate the policy statement to strike a dovish tone while remaining cautious about evolving global developments."The report cites the ease in retail inflation, saying that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April fell to 3.16 per cent, marking a six-year low. RBI MPC Meet Live: In the April meeting, the MPC unanimously decided to slash rates by 25 bps for the second consecutive time, from 6.25% to 6.00%, while changing the stance to 'accommodative' from 'neutral'. RBI MPC Meet Live: The MPC consists of three members from the RBI and three external members appointed by the members are: Governor Sanjay Malhotra, Deputy Governor M Rajeshwar Rao, and Executive Director Rajiv external members are: Nagesh Kumar, Director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi; Shri Saugata Bhattacharya, Economist, Mumbai; and Professor Ram Singh, Director, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi. Governor Sanjay Malhotra will deliver the policy statement at 10 am, following the conclusion of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) three-day meeting that began on June 4. Good morning, ET readers! The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be announcing its bi-monthly monetary policy today, with markets widely anticipating another rate cut to support economic growth amid ongoing global trade RBI had earlier lowered the key repo rate by 25 basis points in both February and April.
IOL News
08-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Possible interest rate cuts as inflation slows in South Africa
Despite a slight rise in the cost of living for April, economists foresee potential interest rate cuts, offering hope for South African consumers. Image: Ayanda Ndamane / Independent Newspapers. While the rate of increases in the cost of living may have ticked somewhat higher for April, some economists are anticipating a different sort of good news: potential interest rate cuts. Statistics South Africa will release its consumer price index data for April on May 21 – the same day as Budget 3.0. This information will be taken into consideration at the next Monetary Policy Meeting of the South African Reserve Bank. That committee will announce its decision on interest rates a week later. Investec chief economist, Annabel Bishop, said that there are likely to be two interest rate cuts this year of 0.25 percentage points. This, however, depended on whether the US Federal Reserve limits its cutting cycle to two drops of 0.25 percentage points each instead of the anticipated three. Old Mutual chief economist, Johann Els, told IOL that the South African Reserve Bank is likely to be conservative given current geopolitical issues. However, the low inflation rate could lead several committee members to cut, especially given the local currency's reversal of more than R19 to the dollar in the first week of last month, dropping fuel prices, and repeated downward revisions in inflation from the central bank. Although the cost of living rose slightly in April, some economists expect good news: possible interest rate cuts. Image: Stats SA/SARB/Investec 'I think the governor is going to be still very cautious and worried about global risks. But I think the balance of the committee might shift to a cut… There is a window of opportunity. But still, I think it's a 50-50 chance for a rate cut in May,' said Els. Els added that there was, however, room for a cumulative 0.75 percentage point cut currently. 'If they don't cut in May, they will definitely cut in July.' Bishop noted that the rate of increase in the cost of living is at its lowest point currently in the inflation cycle at 2.7%. This, she pointed out, compares with the 7.8% year-on-year rate seen in July 2022, although its move to the lower end of the South African Reserve Bank's target of 3% to 6% was 'quite uneven'. Investec's expectation for April is a rate of nearer to 3%. 'The overall moderation in inflation was caused by slowing inflationary pressures as fuel prices fell markedly in periods, along with lower agricultural price pressures, while the rand saw periods of strength and demand pressures were weak overall,' said Bishop. Bishop added that the consumer price index, which averaged 4.4% last year, is expected to average near 3.5% for 2025 on a year-on-year basis, which she said is 'a very modest outcome'.
Arab News
23-04-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Pakistan central bank expected to cut key interest rate— survey
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's central bank is expected to slash the policy rate in its upcoming Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC), a leading brokerage firm said on Wednesday, saying decreasing global oil prices and higher remittances make a strong case for a cut. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the interest rate unchanged at 12 percent in its last MPC meeting in March. The central bank put a hold on slashing the interest rate after it made a series of cuts totaling 1,000 basis points to revive the economy from a record high of 22 percent in June 2024. The SBP is scheduled to hold its MPC committee meeting on May 5, Topline Securities said. 'In a Poll conducted by Topline Securities, 69 percent of the market participants expect a rate cut of at least 50bps, while 31 percent believe that the central bank will observe the status quo,' Topline Securities said in a report. 'The ratio of participants observing status quo has come down from 38 percent in previous poll to current 31 percent.' The report said out of this 69 percent, 37 percent expect a rate cut of 50bps while 30 percent expect a rate cut of 100bps. Only 2 percent expect a rate cut of 150bps. Topline Securities said that the SBP has further room to cut around 200bps till December as the FY26 inflation can average between 6-7 percent, translating into a real rate of 500-600bps. 'Furthermore, falling oil prices, falling dollar index and higher remittances also make a strong case for a rate cut,' it added. 'However, the sustainability in prices/index of the former two (oil and dollar) is yet to be seen.' Topline Securities said that despite its view, it believes the central bank will observe the status quo in the upcoming MPC meeting due to various reasons. It said the expected foreign inflows for the second half of FY25 have not materialized yet and are expected to be received once the first review of the International Monetary Fund is approved by the Board. Furthermore, the IMF has also mentioned in its press release that Pakistan remains committed to maintaining a sufficiently tight monetary policy to keep inflation low. It said another reason why the central bank will maintain the same rate is because the US tariff risks still loom and 'we expect the central bank to maintain status quo till any clarity on this global development.' Inflation in Pakistan soared to around 40 percent in May 2023, driven by currency devaluation and subsidy removals for IMF approvals. But inflation dropped to a near-decade low of 1.5 percent in February, providing room for the central bank to boost growth. Economists also warn of the risk of the government taking advantage of lower interest rates to increase borrowing for an expansionary budget. That would potentially destabilize the progress made under the IMF program and crowd out the private sector. With additional input from Reuters
IOL News
23-04-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Inflation might be down, but don't get your hopes up for an interest rate cut just yet
Inflation has eased to 2.7%, but geopolitical risks are likely to weigh heavily on upcoming repo rate discussions. Image: Henk Kruger / Independent Newspapers Even though the rate of increase in the cost of living declined by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year in March – beating expectations – the Reserve Bank will remain cautious about cutting interest rates next month due to current geopolitical tensions. Yet, the central bank may see room to start cutting rates marginally from around the middle of the year, according to Old Mutual's chief economist, Johann Els. Els said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside, coming in at 2.7% in March instead of his anticipated 3%. The February figure was 3.2%. 'So, significantly lower than expected by me, anybody out there in the market, and by the Reserve Bank,' he said. Elna Moolman, Standard Bank Group Head of South Africa Macroeconomic Research, said that inflationary pressure remains quite benign, vindicating the Reserve Bank's decision to cut rates last year. However, she said it doesn't remove all the Bank's concerns about medium-term upside pressure on inflation given global tariff concerns. Despite the welcome number, Els believes that the South African Reserve Bank will be cautious at the next Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC) on May 8, when they consider interest rate cuts. This, he explained, is given all the global uncertainty created by Trump's tariff positioning now. 'I think the Reserve Bank will welcome these lower numbers, but they will keep rates unchanged at their next MPC meeting, given all the global uncertainty at the moment,' Els said. However, Els does see room for the Reserve Bank to cut rates around July again. 'For the moment, I think there's going to be one more 25 basis point rate cut, but there might be room for two 25 basis point rate cuts, given the low trajectory of inflation over the next few months.' Els explained that 'the lower-than-expected March number means that, during the second quarter, the April, May, and June numbers could be around 2.5%. Lower than what I previously expected, and definitely lower than the Reserve Bank's latest forecast,' Lower inflation was seen across almost all categories and, while food inflation crept up a bit, it was well contained at 2.2%, said Els. Food inflation, especially in maize, was a notable driver of February's inflation figure. Els also noted that, given the fact that alcoholic beverage prices increased at a slower rate than expected, the sin tax increase in the latest budget didn't seriously affect that number. He added that clothing, shoes, fur, appliances and vehicle inflation were all well contained. 'So, there's no consumer price pressures out there,' said Els.
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Record Break-Even Rate May Embolden BOJ to Raise Rates Further
(Bloomberg) -- An indicator of investors' inflationary expectations in Japan has risen to a record high, which could encourage the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates, analysts say. Texas HOA Charged With Discrimination for Banning Section 8 Renters Budapest Mayor Aims to Block Orban's Plans to Build 'Mini Dubai' Vienna Embraces Heat Pumps to Ditch Russian Gas Billionaire Developer Caruso Slams LA Leadership Over Wildfires Hoboken PATH Station Will Close for Almost a Month on Jan. 30 The break-even inflation rate (BEI) exceeded 1.6% level on Jan. 27, following the BOJ's additional interest rate hike to 0.5% and upward revision of its price forecast. The BEI is calculated by subtracting the yield on inflation-linked bonds from the yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds and Monday's level marks its highest since 2004, when inflation-linked bonds were first issued, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 'The breakeven yields are moving up, suggesting the market is beginning to reflect greater confidence that BoJ will achieve it's inflation target on a consistent basis and may need to hike further,' said Philip McNicholas, Asia sovereign strategist at Robeco. An increase in the BEI, which is a typical indicator of inflation expectations in financial markets, will make it easier for the BOJ to push through an interest rate hike as it puts pressure on the yen via falling real interest rates. Although the BOJ is raising interest rates in contrast with global central banks, Japan's real interest rates remain negative and the gap with overseas rates has not narrowed, Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities. There is a strong view that there will be a gap of around six months before the next interest rate hike, and 'There is also a lot of room for yen carry trades to resume,' he said and added that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates in a manner that tracks the depreciation of the yen. At its Monetary Policy Meeting on the 24th, the BOJ decided to raise interest rates for the first time since July last year. In the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices released after the meeting, the Bank revised its forecast for the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI excluding volatile food and energy (core-core CPI) for fiscal 2024 from 2.0% to 2.2%, and for fiscal 2025 from 1.9% to 2.1%. The Bank assessed that the risk of an upward swing was greater in both years. 'Although it is a cost push, there is a possibility that the expected inflation rate will increase slightly due to rising prices.', said Governor Kazuo Ueda at a press conference on the Jan. 24. What Trump's Tech Billionaires Are Buying Forget Factories, Small US Towns Want Buc-ee's Gas Stations The CDC Won't Give the Public a Full Picture of Fertility Treatment Risks Elon Musk's Inaugural Highs (and Lows) How Kendrick Lamar Turned Beef With Drake Into Music Superstardom ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
