Latest news with #MoneyLife
Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Analyst says popular pet-food company's stock is spoiled
Stock market analysts have long maintained that no one goes broke by underestimating how much money Americans will spend to pamper their pets. For proof, there is the $125 billion that Americans are expected to spend this year on pet food and treats. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter There's also Chewy (CHWY) , the pet-supply retailing giant that opened in 2011, went public in 2019, and which today boasts a market capitalization of roughly $20 billion. Yet in the dog-eat-dog world of pet-food companies, the giant players dominate, and at least one industry watcher believes one well-known brand name is struggling amid the industry's big dogs. Image source: Goodney/Bloomberg via Getty Images Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) is a leader in the "fresh pet food" category, which typically features high-end food for dogs and cats made with natural ingredients and without additives and preservatives, cooked in small batches at lower temperatures to retain nutrients. In May, the company said it was cutting its outlook for the year as if first-quarter conditions would continue for the whole year. Related: Veteran analyst reveals stocks, gold price forecast Freshpet now expects sales for 2025 to come in between $1.12 billion and $1.15 billion, down from a prior range of $1.18 billion and $1.21 billion. Veteran stock analyst and New Constructs research firm President David Trainer says the company's stock is a barking dog with fleas. It's "losing a lot of money [at a] stock price that implies they're going to make a lot of money and take huge amounts of market share away from the firms that provide the much higher volume sales of food," he explains. New Constructs combines discounted cash-flow analysis and forensic accounting to evaluate securities on a scale of "most attractive" to "most dangerous." SumZero routinely rates the firm's stock-picking at or near the top of multiple investment categories, most notably consistently leading in consumer discretionary stocks. SumZero is a buy-side community in which more than 15,000 professional portfolio managers compete for rankings. Trainer featured Freshpet in "The Danger Zone" on the May 12 edition of Money Life, but he first singled the stock out in the fall of 2022. He is focusing on it again now because he believes the shares – trading around $80 – are worth "less than a dollar." Trainer says he loves the idea of gourmet dog food (full disclosure: the author of this piece feeds Freshpet regularly to a 10-year-old, six-pound Yorkie) and believes there's a market for the products. Related: Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast Yet Trainer says he dislikes that Freshpet has persistently high operating costs, is burning hard through its cash, has a lagging market share, faces more profitable competition, and has "a stock valuation that implies Freshpet will grow its market share by seven times while also growing profit levels that the company has never seen before." "They've got the lowest amount of market share [among pet-food producers], and yet the stock price implies they're going to move up to third place, also dramatically improving profits," Trainer notes. He explains how growing the bottom line while improving market share is a tough task for all companies, because those actions require different things. Companies often take market share by reducing prices, thereby cutting profitability. Freshpet is looking up at virtually the entire pet-food business when it comes to market share, according to Research and Markets, which pegged the company's global market share at 1% in 2023. The big dogs were Nestle Purina with a 32% market share, followed by Mars at 29%. More on retail: Surprising China trade deal news sends retail stocks surgingJim Cramer calls this popular retailer's stock 'the real winner'Morgan Stanley makes bold call on Kraft Heinz, Conagra "I think Freshpet has been employing this 'Let's lose money to get market share' strategy for a long time," Trainer says. "And they are growing sales. But the stock price and implies that they're going to be able to dramatically 700% improve market share while also dramatically improving profits. We just don't see how that's possible." Trainer notes that if Freshpet's margin improves slightly, but they just reach consensus levels of growth, the stock would be worth $26 per share, but he puts the company's economic book value – its "no-growth value" – at zero. Trainer adds that he doesn't expect the outcome to be quite that dire – and suggests that Freshpet could be a takeover target for a bigger food company that wants its footprint in grocery stores before it reaches catastrophe. But he says you can't have a small player "whose stock price implies it is as big as the whole market." Related: Veteran fund manager revamps stock market forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Veteran analyst says stock market rally not 'real' until this happens
Veteran analyst says stock market rally not 'real' until this happens originally appeared on TheStreet. Investors are feeling good about the stock market's rally from April lows created after the bottom fell out when tariff plans were first announced. Yet as investor emotions show a little more positivity, they are also more vulnerable to the idea that the rebound is nothing more than a bear-market rally, a brief bounce that could go away when the headlines change. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index – which entered the year just under 5,900 -- set a record close at 6,144.15 on February 19 as it reacted to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve Board's late-January index—the most common proxy for 'the stock market'—had fallen from that level by the time President Trump announced his tariff plans on April 2. This sent the index reeling toward bear-market territory, nearly down 20% from its peak. As tariff plans changed and morphed and were delayed, the market rebounded, recapturing its loss on the year by the middle of May. Since then, however, the stock market has failed to break through to new record levels, and a long-time technical analyst, Willie Delwiche, says stocks will stay stuck in a volatile range—and potentially re-test lows—unless we see a crucial signal that the rally will be lasting. Willie Delwiche runs Hi Mount Research. He is a business professor at Wisconsin Lutheran College and spent more than two decades as an investment strategist at Baird. He has seen rapid rebounds before, and he says they are meaningless without follow-through. In a market with limited bandwidth, investors are caught in the middle of their range of latest AAII Sentiment Survey, released June 4, showed that neutral sentiment – an expectation that stock prices will remain largely unchanged over the next six months – was up this week, to nearly 26%. While bearish sentiment leads the way with more than 40% of investors, the negative and flat sentiment shows investors don't trust the rally wholeheartedly. 'We have seen instances in the past where we've had big drawdowns, then huge rallies that failed just shy of new highs, that then cascade lower months later,' Delwiche said in an interview on 'Money Life with Chuck Jaffe.' 'So, breaking out to new highs would be the best sign of strength in the market. 'New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do,' he added. 'And if we see that, it confirms that we are still in a bull market, not just some sort of very protracted, very exaggerated bear-market bounce.' Delwiche says that the market is currently stuck in a wide and volatile range, below the previous peak of nearly 6,200 on the S&P 500, but above its 200-day (long-term) moving average of roughly 5,800. He warned that a breakout to the downside could quickly send the market back to the April lows, particularly if the market takes it as a sign that the rally is over. One positive sign Delwiche points to is the strength of international markets, which hints that the current rally is broader and not entirely based on the Magnificent Seven stocks, the largest of the U.S. giants. Delwiche pointed to data showing that 55% of global markets finished May at new highs, but the United States was not among them. He said that more international markets are making new highs than there are single industry groups of domestic companies trading at peak levels. 'While we talk a lot about what the US is doing, we're also seeing international leadership, international strength, which is something that most investors -- if you look back over the past 10 years -- haven't seen much of at all,' Delwiche said. 'That's encouraging on two fronts. We see global leadership, and then we also see broad participation within the U.S.' Delwiche has plenty of positives to point to based on both technical and fundamental analysis. He noted that the picture is hyper-dependent right now on the risks of the daily news cycle. 'The market is hostage to headlines right now, unlike any point I can remember in my career,' said Delwiche, whose interview aired on the June 6 edition of Money Life. More Experts Fed official sends strong message about interest-rate cuts Billionaire fund manager sends surprising message on trade deficit Hedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming Greece 'Not that the rest of the world is all unicorns and roses or whatever, but everyone is crowded into the U.S.,' Delwiche said. 'If something has changed in the US from a political perspective or from a news perspective, I think at the margin that makes investors a little less complacent to stick around in the U.S.,' making the market more volatile and sensitive to news. One possible play with the market in a trading range would be gold, which is up nearly 30% in 2025. Delwiche said that, unlike commodities, which have not performed well, gold has not yet exhausted its upside potential. 'If there was a time that you would be interested in gold, this would be the time to have gold in your portfolio. is an absolute uptrend and it is trending higher relative to US stocks. Commodities overall are not holding up well. Gold specifically is and There are periods where you want to have gold and there are periods where you don't want to have gold,' Delwiche said. 'If ever there was a time when you should be interested in gold, this would be it.'Veteran analyst says stock market rally not 'real' until this happens first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 7, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 7, 2025, where it first appeared. 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Miami Herald
3 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran analyst says stock market rally not ‘real' until this happens
Investors are feeling good about the stock market's rally from April lows created after the bottom fell out when tariff plans were first announced. Yet as investor emotions show a little more positivity, they are also more vulnerable to the idea that the rebound is nothing more than a bear-market rally, a brief bounce that could go away when the headlines change. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index – which entered the year just under 5,900 -- set a record close at 6,144.15 on February 19 as it reacted to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve Board's late-January meeting. Related: Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast The index-the most common proxy for "the stock market"-had fallen from that level by the time President Trump announced his tariff plans on April 2. This sent the index reeling toward bear-market territory, nearly down 20% from its peak. As tariff plans changed and morphed and were delayed, the market rebounded, recapturing its loss on the year by the middle of May. Since then, however, the stock market has failed to break through to new record levels, and a long-time technical analyst, Willie Delwiche, says stocks will stay stuck in a volatile range-and potentially re-test lows-unless we see a crucial signal that the rally will be lasting. Image source: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images Willie Delwiche runs Hi Mount Research. He is a business professor at Wisconsin Lutheran College and spent more than two decades as an investment strategist at Baird. He has seen rapid rebounds before, and he says they are meaningless without follow-through. In a market with limited bandwidth, investors are caught in the middle of their range of emotions. Related: Jobs report shifts Fed interest rate forecasts The latest AAII Sentiment Survey, released June 4, showed that neutral sentiment – an expectation that stock prices will remain largely unchanged over the next six months – was up this week, to nearly 26%. While bearish sentiment leads the way with more than 40% of investors, the negative and flat sentiment shows investors don't trust the rally wholeheartedly. "We have seen instances in the past where we've had big drawdowns, then huge rallies that failed just shy of new highs, that then cascade lower months later," Delwiche said in an interview on "Money Life with Chuck Jaffe." "So, breaking out to new highs would be the best sign of strength in the market. "New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do," he added. "And if we see that, it confirms that we are still in a bull market, not just some sort of very protracted, very exaggerated bear-market bounce." Delwiche says that the market is currently stuck in a wide and volatile range, below the previous peak of nearly 6,200 on the S&P 500, but above its 200-day (long-term) moving average of roughly 5,800. He warned that a breakout to the downside could quickly send the market back to the April lows, particularly if the market takes it as a sign that the rally is over. One positive sign Delwiche points to is the strength of international markets, which hints that the current rally is broader and not entirely based on the Magnificent Seven stocks, the largest of the U.S. giants. Delwiche pointed to data showing that 55% of global markets finished May at new highs, but the United States was not among them. He said that more international markets are making new highs than there are single industry groups of domestic companies trading at peak levels. "While we talk a lot about what the US is doing, we're also seeing international leadership, international strength, which is something that most investors -- if you look back over the past 10 years -- haven't seen much of at all," Delwiche said. "That's encouraging on two fronts. We see global leadership, and then we also see broad participation within the U.S." Delwiche has plenty of positives to point to based on both technical and fundamental analysis. He noted that the picture is hyper-dependent right now on the risks of the daily news cycle. "The market is hostage to headlines right now, unlike any point I can remember in my career," said Delwiche, whose interview aired on the June 6 edition of Money Life. More Experts Fed official sends strong message about interest-rate cutsBillionaire fund manager sends surprising message on trade deficitHedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming Greece "Not that the rest of the world is all unicorns and roses or whatever, but everyone is crowded into the U.S.," Delwiche said. "If something has changed in the US from a political perspective or from a news perspective, I think at the margin that makes investors a little less complacent to stick around in the U.S.," making the market more volatile and sensitive to news. One possible play with the market in a trading range would be gold, which is up nearly 30% in 2025. Delwiche said that, unlike commodities, which have not performed well, gold has not yet exhausted its upside potential. "If there was a time that you would be interested in gold, this would be the time to have gold in your portfolio. is an absolute uptrend and it is trending higher relative to US stocks. Commodities overall are not holding up well. Gold specifically is and There are periods where you want to have gold and there are periods where you don't want to have gold," Delwiche said. "If ever there was a time when you should be interested in gold, this would be it." Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast
Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast originally appeared on TheStreet. Nervous investors have flocked to gold as a safe haven against inflation, geopolitics, and, most recently, tariff turmoil, and they have been well-paid for their move this year. Now, those same investors are anxious about whether the precious metal's run can continue. Gold is up nearly 30% this year, after gaining more than 25% in 2024; it's up 44% over the last 12 months. The three-year annualized average return on gold, as measured by SPDR Gold Shares () , is 21.4%, well above its historic averages; from 1971 to 2024, the annualized return on the shiny stuff was just under 8%. Great runs like this don't last forever, so fearing a regression to the mean is normal. Calm the nerves; one of the world's leading gold strategists says record price levels will be broken regularly through the end of the Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist for State Street Global Advisors, said in a recent interview on 'Money Life with Chuck Jaffe' that gold will continue to make sense for investors for its attributes and potential. 'We still have a lot of geopolitical turbulence, and gold historically has tended to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil,' said Milling-Stanley. Milling-Stanley has spent some five decades overseeing gold's fit into investment portfolios and helped develop GLD, the world's first gold-backed ETF. Clearly, he knows a thing or two about the yellow metal. 'We still don't know where we stand with interest rates. … We don't know what the outcome of that is going to be. We still have an enormous amount of uncertainty on the macroeconomic front, as well as geopolitical shock. 'When faced with uncertainty,' Milling-Stanley added, 'I've always turned to gold in the past and I think it's served me well.' Gold's run-up over the last few years has coincided with higher inflation, but that hasn't fueled the run, according to Milling-Stanley. He says it only serves the role of an inflation hedge when the economy is 'suffering sustained high inflation,' which he defines as two or more years when prices rise persistently by 5% or more. That hasn't happened since the 1970s, so even if price hikes continue at their current pace—higher than the Fed's 2% target—gold isn't likely to respond to the uncertainty that Milling-Stanley says gives gold more upside potential than downside risk. 'The higher the uncertainty, the higher the upper limit,' he explained, noting that emerging tariff policies and the pall they've cast on global markets have forced the team at State Street to revise forecasts made last December, intended to last the whole of 2025, several times already. 'I guess the most important thing to say is it looks very much as if we've established a new floor in the gold price, somewhere above $3,000 an ounce,' Milling-Stanley explained. 'The floor last year was at $2,000 an ounce. That is a huge leap. With a new floor in place—gold didn't sustain a breach of the $2,000 level until February 2024 but has been higher ever since—and with the huge gains in the last 12 months, Milling-Stanley said he would not be surprised or even disappointed if gold consolidated a bit, trading in the $3,000 to $3,500 range for a while, simply holding value if market turmoil causes other asset values to drop. But, he noted, 'our bullish case suggests that we could actually take out whatever resistance is available at the $3,500 area, and possibly even trade as high as $3,900.' By that best-case forecast, gold would gain more than 15% from current levels, on top of its huge gains of the last two years. While price performance has been glitzy, Milling-Stanley noted that a gold allocation makes sense in most portfolios for its non-glamorous, protective attributes:Diversification, thanks to 'a zero relationship' to the movement of both stocks and bonds. Protection from stock market calamity. Milling-Stanley isn't predicting disaster, but said that macroeconomic uncertainties make it impossible to eliminate the potential for something catastrophic. 'If you look at, Black Monday in 1987, if you look at the bursting of the bubble in 2001-2002, you look at the global financial crisis of 2008, you look at the advent of Covid in 2020, equities took a significant downturn and gold performed very, very well,' Milling-Stanley said. Milling-Stanley notes that gold's momentum hasn't carried over to gold miners; he favors owning the physical metal, particularly because of concerns about market swings. Miners historically have sharply underperformed metals in big downdrafts. Gold typically holds up against weakness in the dollar. The value of the dollar is off roughly 9% this year, and it lost about 4.5% in the wake of the Liberation Day tariff announcements. Inflation protection in the unlikely event that tariff policies hit home harder and longer than anticipated with the Fed losing control on price hikes. 'I think people are still looking to gold for its protective attributes, rather than necessarily hoping that the price will go up so they can sell at a profit tomorrow or next week,' Milling-Stanley said. Still, he acknowledged that those timeless attributes shine brighter when attached to gold's enhanced profit potential strategist unveils updated gold price forecast first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 3, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 3, 2025, where it first appeared.
Miami Herald
7 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast
Nervous investors have flocked to gold as a safe haven against inflation, geopolitics, and, most recently, tariff turmoil, and they have been well-paid for their move this year. Now, those same investors are anxious about whether the precious metal's run can continue. Gold is up nearly 30% this year, after gaining more than 25% in 2024; it's up 44% over the last 12 months. The three-year annualized average return on gold, as measured by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) , is 21.4%, well above its historic averages; from 1971 to 2024, the annualized return on the shiny stuff was just under 8%. Great runs like this don't last forever, so fearing a regression to the mean is normal. Calm the nerves; one of the world's leading gold strategists says record price levels will be broken regularly through the end of the year. Related: Veteran analyst who predicted gold prices would rally offers a blunt new forecast George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist for State Street Global Advisors, said in a recent interview on "Money Life with Chuck Jaffe" that gold will continue to make sense for investors for its attributes and potential. "We still have a lot of geopolitical turbulence, and gold historically has tended to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil," said Milling-Stanley. Milling-Stanley has spent some five decades overseeing gold's fit into investment portfolios and helped develop GLD, the world's first gold-backed ETF. Clearly, he knows a thing or two about the yellow metal. "We still don't know where we stand with interest rates. … We don't know what the outcome of that is going to be. We still have an enormous amount of uncertainty on the macroeconomic front, as well as geopolitical shock. "When faced with uncertainty," Milling-Stanley added, "I've always turned to gold in the past and I think it's served me well." Gold's run-up over the last few years has coincided with higher inflation, but that hasn't fueled the run, according to Milling-Stanley. He says it only serves the role of an inflation hedge when the economy is "suffering sustained high inflation," which he defines as two or more years when prices rise persistently by 5% or more. That hasn't happened since the 1970s, so even if price hikes continue at their current pace-higher than the Fed's 2% target-gold isn't likely to respond to inflation. Related: Veteran fund manager sends surprising message on the weak dollar It's the uncertainty that Milling-Stanley says gives gold more upside potential than downside risk. "The higher the uncertainty, the higher the upper limit," he explained, noting that emerging tariff policies and the pall they've cast on global markets have forced the team at State Street to revise forecasts made last December, intended to last the whole of 2025, several times already. "I guess the most important thing to say is it looks very much as if we've established a new floor in the gold price, somewhere above $3,000 an ounce," Milling-Stanley explained. "The floor last year was at $2,000 an ounce. That is a huge leap. With a new floor in place-gold didn't sustain a breach of the $2,000 level until February 2024 but has been higher ever since-and with the huge gains in the last 12 months, Milling-Stanley said he would not be surprised or even disappointed if gold consolidated a bit, trading in the $3,000 to $3,500 range for a while, simply holding value if market turmoil causes other asset values to drop. But, he noted, "our bullish case suggests that we could actually take out whatever resistance is available at the $3,500 area, and possibly even trade as high as $3,900." By that best-case forecast, gold would gain more than 15% from current levels, on top of its huge gains of the last two years. While price performance has been glitzy, Milling-Stanley noted that a gold allocation makes sense in most portfolios for its non-glamorous, protective attributes: Related: Rich Dad Poor Dad author makes surprising silver, gold price forecast Diversification, thanks to "a zero relationship" to the movement of both stocks and from stock market calamity. Milling-Stanley isn't predicting disaster, but said that macroeconomic uncertainties make it impossible to eliminate the potential for something catastrophic. "If you look at, Black Monday in 1987, if you look at the bursting of the bubble in 2001-2002, you look at the global financial crisis of 2008, you look at the advent of Covid in 2020, equities took a significant downturn and gold performed very, very well," Milling-Stanley said. Milling-Stanley notes that gold's momentum hasn't carried over to gold miners; he favors owning the physical metal, particularly because of concerns about market swings. Miners historically have sharply underperformed metals in big downdrafts. Gold typically holds up against weakness in the dollar. The value of the dollar is off roughly 9% this year, and it lost about 4.5% in the wake of the Liberation Day tariff protection in the unlikely event that tariff policies hit home harder and longer than anticipated with the Fed losing control on price hikes. "I think people are still looking to gold for its protective attributes, rather than necessarily hoping that the price will go up so they can sell at a profit tomorrow or next week," Milling-Stanley said. Still, he acknowledged that those timeless attributes shine brighter when attached to gold's enhanced profit potential now. Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
