Latest news with #MoritzKraemer
Observer
26-04-2025
- Business
- Observer
Climate action requires debt relief
Moritz Kraemer The writer is a former global chief ratings officer at S&P Global Today's global economic turmoil is not just about trade. As G20 finance ministers gather in Washington during the annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that growing economic uncertainty and financial market stress pose serious threats to developing countries. The danger is particularly acute for highly indebted economies, which are now facing weaker growth prospects and reduced financial support from the US and other donor countries. In February, the IMF estimated that nearly half of the lowest-income countries were at risk of debt distress, at which point they may no longer be able to meet their debt obligations. That number is expected to rise as conditions continue to deteriorate. Compounding the crisis, the world's poorest countries — especially small island developing states — are highly vulnerable to climate change and biodiversity loss. Extreme weather events like hurricanes, droughts and floods can wipe out critical infrastructure and cripple agricultural production in an instant, while slower-onset changes like rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns require continuous and costly adaptation measures. The debt and climate crises are closely intertwined. As more public funds are diverted towards disaster relief and recovery, fewer resources are available for climate adaptation, nature conservation and long-term investment. This, in turn, increases vulnerability, weakens growth prospects and drives up borrowing costs, shrinking fiscal space even further. The result is a self-reinforcing, vicious circle. But it doesn't have to be this way. Over the past year, we have co-chaired the Expert Review on Debt, Nature and Climate — an initiative launched by the governments of Colombia, Kenya, France and Germany. In our final report, 'Healthy Debt on a Healthy Planet,' we outline several steps that emerging and developing economies can take to break free from the debt-climate trap and move towards a virtuous cycle of low-carbon, climate-resilient and nature-positive growth. First, climate and nature considerations must be integrated into macroeconomic and fiscal analyses. This is especially critical in the debt sustainability frameworks used by the IMF and World Bank to assess developing countries' fiscal health. Although both institutions have made some progress in recent years, much more needs to be done to ensure that these frameworks fully account for climate-related risks. Equally important, such assessments must recognise not only the risks posed by climate change but also the economic benefits of investing in resilience. Their value — especially their potential to fuel medium-term growth and reduce a country's financial risks — must be properly reflected in economic and financial models to encourage governments to act. Second, many developing countries need assistance in reducing their debt burdens. Some are already in debt distress, while others suffer from liquidity problems. Our report proposes new mechanisms for restructuring and refinancing debt in return for investments in climate adaptation and conservation projects that promote sustainable growth. Third, proven approaches to addressing debt, nature and climate risks must be scaled up. These include contingency clauses in debt contracts that suspend repayments during natural disasters and various forms of sustainability-linked finance. While debt-for-climate and debt-for-nature swaps are not yet scalable due to a lack of standardisation, they have already delivered vital funding for environmental initiatives, demonstrating their value and warranting greater support. More broadly, MDBs must significantly boost lending to support low-carbon, climate-resilient and nature-positive growth. While discussions on much-needed recapitalisation are ongoing, optimising MDB balance sheets remains the most effective way to stretch scarce public resources and accelerate sustainable development. Lastly, our report calls for the development of new financing instruments aimed at mobilising private capital for climate mitigation and adaptation. For example, we propose establishing a Finance Facility against Climate Change (F2C2) — a special-purpose vehicle designed to issue green bonds backed by future donor commitments. The proceeds would be directed primarily towards climate-mitigation investments in developing countries. These are all practical, actionable proposals. When combined with technical assistance and policy support, they could significantly improve the growth prospects of developing countries grappling with debt and climate risks. Making debt management both fiscally and environmentally sustainable is not only feasible but also essential to safeguarding global growth, which is in the interest of all countries — not just the poorest.
Bloomberg
06-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
More Pressure on Weaker Sovereigns in Europe: Kraemer
Moritz Kraemer, chief economist at LBBW, discusses the outlook for European bonds as nations look to fund increased defense spending. "This will heighten the pressure on sort of weaker sovereigns in the euro area," Kraemer says. "Not so much from the rating agencies, but from the markets," he says on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
01-03-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
How AI could help to prepare for future pandemics according to Oxford scientists
Artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to help society prepare for future pandemics, researchers from the University of Oxford say. Scientists from across the globe, including Africa, America, Asia, Australia, and Europe, have outlined how AI can change the landscape of infectious disease research and improve preparedness for pandemics. The study highlights the importance of safety, accountability, and ethics in the use of AI for infectious disease research. The researchers are calling for a collaborative and transparent approach in terms of datasets and AI models. Lead author Professor Moritz Kraemer, from the University of Oxford's Pandemic Sciences Institute, said: "In the next five years, AI has the potential to transform pandemic preparedness. The scientists warned against relying solely on AI to deal with the challenges of a pandemic (Image: PA) "It will help us better anticipate where outbreaks will start and predict their trajectory, using terabytes of routinely collected climatic and socio-economic data. "It might also help predict the impact of disease outbreaks on individual patients by studying the interactions between the immune system and emerging pathogens. "Taken together and if integrated into countries' pandemic response systems, these advances will have the potential to save lives and ensure the world is better prepared for future pandemic threats." The research identifies several opportunities for AI in pandemic preparedness, including improving current models of disease spread, pinpointing areas of high-transmission potential, and enhancing genetic data in disease surveillance. AI could also help to determine the properties of new pathogens, predict their traits, and identify whether cross-species jumps are likely, as well as predict which new variants of already-circulating pathogens might arise. However, the scientists caution against relying solely on AI to solve infectious disease challenges. They suggest integrating human feedback into AI modelling workflows could help to overcome existing limitations. The authors also express concerns about the quality and representativeness of training data, the limited accessibility of AI models to the wider community, and potential risks associated with the deployment of black-box models for decision making. Study author Professor Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said: "While AI has remarkable transformative potential for pandemic mitigation, it is dependent upon extensive worldwide collaboration and from comprehensive, continuous surveillance data inputs." Study lead author Samir Bhatt, from the University of Copenhagen and Imperial College London, added: "Infectious disease outbreaks remain a constant threat, but AI offers policymakers a powerful new set of tools to guide informed decisions on when and how to intervene." The authors suggest rigorous benchmarks to evaluate AI models, advocating for strong collaborations between government, society, industry, and academia for the sustainable and practical development of models for improving human health.
Wall Street Journal
16-02-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Former S&P Ratings Executive Shares Concerns Over U.S. Creditworthiness
Moritz Kraemer was an executive in S&P's sovereign-bond unit when it cut the U.S.'s rating in 2011. Now an economist for German bank LBBW, he says the dysfunction in Washington has only worsened. Read more here:
