Latest news with #NCAAEvaluationTool
Forbes
08-04-2025
- Sport
- Forbes
This Ranking System Predicted The Best March Madness Bracket In 2025
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 29: The Florida Gators celebrate after defeating the Texas Tech ... More Red Raiders to advance to the Final Four in the Elite Eight round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at Chase Center on March 29, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) The 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament concluded with the Florida Gators securing their third national championship, defeating the Houston Cougars in the title game. In the lead-up to March Madness, the NCAA Selection Committee was tasked with seeding 68 teams, a process informed by seven different ranking systems. These included NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom, Torvik T-Rank, ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), Wins Above Bubble (WAB), Strength of Record (SOR), and KPI. These systems incorporate varying methodologies, including efficiency-based models, résumé-based assessments, and hybrid approaches combining performance and opponent strength. To evaluate the predictive validity of these metrics, I conducted an experiment during the 2025 tournament. Using each ranking system independently, I constructed a complete bracket based solely on the relative rankings as of Selection Sunday. No adjustments were made once the tournament began, and no subjective inputs were included. The objective was to assess which system most accurately predicted the actual outcomes of the NCAA Tournament. This year's tournament produced very few upsets relative to historical norms. All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, and three of the four No. 2 seeds reached the Elite Eight. In all the tournament produced only eleven upsets, defined here as any lower-seeded team defeating a higher-seeded opponent. Even among those results, many were minor deviations from expectation. Two were 9-over-8 matchups, and two others were 10-over-7. According to historical data, a No. 9 seed wins about 49% of the time against No. 8 seeds and No. 10 seeds win about 39% of the time against No. 7 seeds. PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND - MARCH 20: The McNeese Cowboys celebrate their win over the Clemson ... More University Tigers during the first round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at Amica Mutual Pavillion on March 20, 2025 in Providence, Rhode Island. (Photo by Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) The four South region upsets included: No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 Louisville, No. 10 New Mexico over No. 7 Marquette, No. 5 Michigan over No. 4 Texas A&M, and No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 3 Iowa State. The West region accounted for the largest share: No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, No. 11 Drake over No. 6 Missouri, No. 10 Arkansas over No. 7 Kansas, and No. 10 Arkansas over No. 2 St. John's. East region upsets included: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Mississippi State and No. 6 BYU over No. 3 Wisconsin. The lone upset in the Midwest region included: No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Clemson. SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MARCH 21: Jalen Lake #15 of the Colorado State Rams reacts after making a ... More three-point basket during the first half in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Climate Pledge Arena on March 21, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by) This relatively low rate of disruption suggests a high level of accuracy in the Selection Committee's seeding decisions. Given that the Committee's process is informed in large part by advanced ranking systems, the tournament's chalk-heavy nature may also reflect the strength and consistency of the underlying metrics used to evaluate team quality. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the ranking systems used by the NCAA Selection Committee, I submitted bracket entries into the 2025 ESPN Tournament Challenge with picks made purely based on each of the seven rankings used by the NCAA Selection Committee in order to determine which ranking system proved most accurate this season. The selection process followed a systematic approach. For each ranking system, the team ranked No. 1 was selected as the national champion. The remaining picks were made sequentially: the team ranked No. 2 was advanced as far as possible without facing a higher-ranked opponent, and so on, until a complete bracket was filled. This process ensured a consistent and objective methodology across all seven systems. SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - APRIL 3: Head coach Kelvin Sampson of the Houston Cougars arrives during Final ... More Four Media Day at the 2025 Men's Final Four at Alamodome on April 3, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Jack Dempsey/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) To assess performance, each ranking system was evaluated using two scoring frameworks: Together, these two metrics offer complementary views of performance and capture both bracket efficiency in a competitive context and underlying predictive accuracy. None of the brackets constructed using the seven ranking systems correctly predicted the Florida Gators as national champions. However, five of the seven systems accurately projected all four Final Four teams. Only Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and KPI omitted Duke in favor of Alabama, a divergence that ultimately reduced their overall predictive performance. Comparison of all seven ranking metrics and how they performed in the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball ... More Tournament. The Tournament Challenge results present an interesting pattern. Only 290 out of a possible 1,920 points separated the top performer, KenPom, from the bottom performer, KPI. However, these brackets landed in very different percentiles. The percentile is an indicator of how the bracket performed relative to other brackets submitted on ESPN. A KenPom bracket was better than 97.5% of all other brackets while a KPI bracket was only better than 68.6% of all other brackets. This gap underscores how even modest differences in bracket accuracy can translate into substantial variance in competitive standing. Unweighted accuracy showed less variability across systems. KenPom and Torvik T-Rank led with 51 correct picks out of 63 games (81.0%), while KPI trailed slightly with 46 correct picks (73.0%). The narrow five-game spread between the top and bottom performers illustrates the relative consistency in baseline predictive ability. However, the compounded value of correct predictions in later rounds, particularly the Elite Eight, Final Four, and championship, amplified the separation in weighted performance. ATLANTA, GEORGIA - MARCH 28: Head Coach Bruce Pearl of the Auburn Tigers watches from the sideline ... More during the Sweet Sixteen round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at State Farm Arena on March 28, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Grant Halverson/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) This analysis demonstrates that while all seven NCAA-endorsed ranking systems offer a reasonably accurate view of team quality, not all are equally effective at predicting tournament outcomes. KenPom and Torvik stood out, combining strong overall accuracy with high-impact picks in later rounds. In contrast, systems like KPI and WAB lagged behind, missing key matchups and failing to match the predictive performance of their peers. In a year with relatively few upsets, the best models closely mirrored the actual trajectory of March Madness. This performance reinforces their value not just to the Selection Committee, but to analysts, fans, and bettors seeking a competitive edge. When the margin between a good bracket and a great one is only a few games, the choice of ranking system can make a meaningful difference.
Washington Post
18-03-2025
- Sport
- Washington Post
‘Inexcusable!': South Alabama coach blasts NIT for rescinded invite
A men's college basketball coach blasted the National Invitation Tournament for rescinding its invitation to his program. 'What they did to us last night is inexcusable!' South Alabama's Richie Riley wrote Monday in an X post. In a statement provided to The Washington Post, South Alabama's athletic director said his department was 'disappointed that the NIT prematurely extended an invitation to our men's basketball team to participate in this year's tournament before confirming a spot was available.' The episode, which led to an apology from the NIT and a statement of regret from the Sun Belt Conference, unfolded after the announcement of the 68-team NCAA tournament bracket Sunday evening. The NIT then filled its 32-team field with programs not chosen by the NCAA tournament's selection committee. In comments published Monday by Riley said he received a call Sunday night from a pair of NCAA officials, including Dan Gavitt, who oversees the NIT as well as NCAA basketball tournaments. The other official was Keith Gill, vice chair of the NCAA tournament selection committee and also the commissioner of the Sun Belt, to which South Alabama belongs. Riley said he was told that UC Riverside, which was announced as in the NIT field, had already committed to play in the College Basketball Invitational tournament. That opened a spot in the NIT, Riley said the two officials told him, and he accepted their invitation after getting assurances that a berth was '100 percent' available for South Alabama. The coach said he then told his players the good news. Late that night, however, he got a call back from Gavitt and Gill, who he said told him UC Riverside was spurning the CBI for the NIT. That left Riley to give his players an unhappy update Monday morning that they were not, in fact, being rewarded for a 21-11 season and a share of the Sun Belt regular season title with a trip to the NIT. In a statement Monday that the NIT shared on X — while turning off the reply function for its post — it acknowledged that its invitation to the Jaguars was 'prematurely extended.' 'We understand the emotional impact this confusion created and we sincerely apologize to South Alabama, Head Coach Richie Riley, and all the student-athletes for the error,' the statement read. In a repost of that statement, Riley described it as a 'meaningless apology to the most meaningful group of players I've ever coached!' 'These guys in our locker room don't deserve this,' added the coach, in his seventh season with the Jaguars, 'and it's sad your idea of making it right is a copy and paste apology!' Riley on Monday also reposted several comments on X critical of the NIT. Another comment suggested the NIT expand its field to 33 to accommodate the Jaguars, who finished with a better mark (123rd) than UC Riverside (142nd) in the NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings, a key metric for the organization. The NIT tips off Tuesday with seven games, including one featuring UC Riverside against Santa Clara. 'Prior to UCR being selected for the NIT, it was announced earlier that the team would be competing in the 2025 [CBI], which the Highlanders were extremely excited about,' UC Riverside said in confirming it would play in the NIT. Its athletic director said that 'garnering the attention of tournament committees is an honor and to receive multiple postseason invitations is indicative of our program's growth.' Having initially included UC Riverside in its 12-team field, the CBI subsequently shared an updated bracket that omitted the Highlanders and shrunk the field to 11 teams. CBI officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether they might try to replace UC Riverside with another program. Riley told that his program had an 'NIT-or-bust' mindset and had already ruled out participating in the CBI, which requires an entry fee and is considered less prestigious than the NIT. Having lost in the semifinals of the Sun Belt tournament, thus missing out on an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, the Jaguars had an effective end to their season with the NIT's rescinded invitation. 'It's just unfair for our players,' Riley said. 'We've got a team with zero NIL [revenue from name, image and likeness endorsements]. They're a bunch of underdogs that fought their a — es off. And now I have to tell them they're not in the NIT. It's just an absolute joke.' In a statement provided to The Post, the Sun Belt said: 'We regret the emotional impact this chain of events had on South Alabama's student-athletes and want to congratulate Sun Belt Coach of the Year Richie Riley and his team on a historic season, including a Sun Belt regular-season co-championship.' 'This was an avoidable situation that has made a negative impact on our student-athletes and coaches,' South Alabama Athletic Director Joel Erdmann said in his statement, 'so we appreciate and acknowledge the NIT's apology.'
Yahoo
03-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Women's basketball: Gophers coach Dawn Plitzuweit makes her pitch
Like a senior scorer willing her team to victory, Dawn Plitzuweit didn't hesitate to take her shot on Monday. Speaking to reporters, the Gophers women's basketball coach was asked if she thinks her 20-win team will be an NCAA tournament team regardless of what happens in Minnesota's first-round Big Ten tournament game Wednesday against Washington. 'I really can't answer that,' Plitzuweit said. As far as whether the Gophers deserve a shot, she said, 'I absolutely do.' In the leadup to Wednesday's 2:30 p.m. CT tip against the Huskies, the Gophers (20-10, 8-10) are absolutely on the bubble to get one of the NCAA tournament's 68 invitations. Further, they probably need to beat Washington (18-12, 9-9) to convince some, if not all, of the selection committee. Minnesota lost fairly convincingly to the Huskies on Feb. 26, and in fact lost seven of their last 10 regular-season games. They finished 0-7 against ranked opponents, 0-7 in Quad 1 games — a key metric in determining the field — and finished 13th in the 18-team Big Ten. The Big Ten has never sent more than seven teams to the NCAA tournament in one year, a feat matched last year, when Iowa, one of four top seeds, lost to South Carolina in the championship game. Thirteen seems like a push. But Plitzuweit doesn't think so, and she has a point. And took her shot. 'I would say this. The landscape of college athletics is totally different; it completely changed, 100 percent changed,' she said. 'So, if you look at historical numbers of teams that get in from conferences, that all has to go right out the window. It has to.' After adding Oregon, Southern Cal, UCLA and Washington this season, the Big Ten is up to 18 teams. All four are among the Top 43 in NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings, which take into account metrics such as results, strength of schedule, game location, offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of a team's wins and losses. UCLA is ranked fifth, Southern Cal sixth, tops among the conference's 11 teams in the top 41 in a poll the selection committee uses to choose 37 at-large participants in the 68-team tournament. Heading into Wednesday's game, Minnesota is ranked No. 38. 'You've added four really good teams to our already strong conference and then the other teams have gotten better, too,' Plitzuweit said. One of those teams is Minnesota, which won five conference games in a 14-team league last season, then advanced to the WNIT final. This season, the Gophers won eight league games but still finished under .500 in conference, another indicator. 'You're looking at 13 teams in the Top 43 or so of the net. That's unbelievable,' the Gophers coach added. 'When you listen to, or read up on the bracketologists, they're saying there are 13 teams that are NCAA tournament teams.' ESPN, in fact, had Minnesota and Washington among the 'last four in' on Monday. So does Megan Gauer of which presumably means they think neither team has to win on Wednesday to make it. USAToday has three Big Ten teams with Top 4 seeds: UCLA (1), Southern Cal (1) and Ohio State (4). The Gophers lost to all three on the road, getting clobbered by the Bruins but putting a late scare into USC and pushing the Buckeyes to overtime. All seven of the Gophers games against ranked teams, in fact, were on the road — Nebraska was ranked No. 24 when they played — and seven of their 10 losses were to opponents ranked among the NET's top 31 teams. The problem is Minnesota has more good losses — slim setbacks at No. 15 Maryland, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 2 USC — than good wins Illinois (No. 31 NET) and Indiana (No, 39). 'This is unprecedented. This is the best, in my opinion,' Plitzuweit said. 'The Big Ten women's basketball conference is the deepest ever in the history of NCAA women's basketball. It's never been like this before.' There's one way, of course, for the Gophers to take the guess work out of it. The winner of Wednesday's game advances to play Oregon, a 76-70 winner against Minnesota, on Thursday afternoon. 'I think because our young ladies have competed and knocked off some decent teams, really good teams, and competed with the best teams. I think we have earned an opportunity,' Plitzuweit said. 'Now, would it help us to get to work and do some work in the Big Ten tournament? Absolutely.' College Sports | Women's basketball: Gophers finished Big Ten with loss at Michigan State College Sports | Women's basketball: Gophers can't keep up in 72-62 loss to Washington College Sports | Grace Grocholski, Sophie Hart push Gophers to ragged win at Purdue College Sports | Women's basketball: Turnovers killing Gophers during 1-5 skid College Sports | Women's basketball: Gophers squander early lead in loss to Oregon
Yahoo
21-02-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Surging USF women control destiny, but not metrics, as March looms
TAMPA — Their confidence brims as March beckons. USF's women have won eight in a row to move within a game of first place in the American Athletic Conference. Their defense has grown more stingy, their turnovers more scarce. 'I think as we head into the stretch run here with about a week and a half left in the season,' said 25th-year coach Jose Fernandez, 'everything that we want is still ahead of us.' Except, perhaps, an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Should the Bulls (19-8, 12-2) win the league tournament in Fort Worth, Texas, in a couple of weeks, their at-large odds become a moot point. But if they stumble in that event, they likely miss the NCAAs for the second year in a row. Why? Because while momentum's in USF's favor, metrics are not. And the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings — the primary tool for evaluating NCAA tourney teams — are steeped in factors such as offensive and defensive efficiency. For Fernandez, that's a sorer subject than the torn knee ligaments hobbling him these days. 'All it is, is protecting the (Power) Four programs,' Fernandez said. 'That's all it is.' A cursory look at the latest NET rankings — where USF is 67th — validates his point. Despite a daunting non-conference slate that Fernandez annually schedules by design, the Bulls have a better overall record and more quality wins (Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins, in NET vernacular) than some Power Four peers ranked ahead of them. Their lone Quad 1 triumph — a 65-56 win against then-No. 9 Duke just before Christmas — is still one more than Missouri (64th), Auburn (57th), Florida (55th) or Stanford (48th). Of those, only Stanford and Auburn have as many Quad 3 wins (three) as the Bulls. 'Do the blind resume of 20 teams ahead of us, and don't put a name, and (compare) our resume as far as who we've played and the margin of victory and that Quad 1 (win),' Fernandez said. 'I would find it hard to believe that (an at-large bid would be denied) if we go to Dallas and somehow don't win the conference tournament, when you're sitting at around probably 24 wins. We did everything that the (selection) committee asked you to do: challenge yourself in November and December, play a great schedule.' Therein lies the other issue: USF's AAC peers didn't schedule nearly as aggressively. The Bulls' strength-of-schedule ranking (44th) according to is by far the highest in the league, where seven teams' schedules rank 120th or worse. The AAC received only one NCAA bid last season and is projected to have only one this year. Longtime ESPN women's bracketologist Charlie Creme lists the Bulls as one of his 'first four out' of the 68-team field. 'I think we're the only (conference) team that has scheduled, unfortunately, for an at-large bid,' Fernandez said. 'If other people don't do that, this league will continue to be a one-bid league.' Win the AAC tourney next month and it all becomes academic for the Bulls, clearly the league's hottest team at the moment. During their eight-game streak, the Bulls are averaging only 12.9 turnovers, a noticeable reduction from their season average (14.4), and have shot at least 41% from the floor in all eight contests. Moreover, four foes have been held to fewer than 60 points during that stretch. 'I think we're doing a much better job taking care of the basketball, and I think we're doing a really good job defending,' said Fernandez, whose club hosts Memphis (7-19, 5-9) on Saturday. 'If we can continue to do that, and (low-post standouts) Carla Brito and L'or (Mputu) can rebound and finish around the rim, and Mama (Dembele) and (Janette Aarnio) can be steady at the point guard spot, and those three wings (Sammie Puisis, Vittoria Blasigh and Romi Levy) can make shots, we're a good basketball team.' Contact Joey Knight at jknight@ Follow @TBTimes_Bulls. Despite a seemingly superior resume, USF's women remain behind several teams in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, the primary tool for evaluating teams for the NCAA Tournament that sorts the quality of wins and losses into quads: USF NET rank: 67 Record: 19-8 Quad 1: 1-5 Quad 2: 0-1 Quad 3: 3-1 Quad 4: 15-1 Stanford NET rank: 48 Record: 13-12 Quad 1: 0-9 Quad 2: 1-2 Quad 3: 3-1 Quad 4: 9-0 Florida NET rank: 55 Record: 13-13 Quad 1: 0-9 Quad 2: 3-2 Quad 3: 0-1 Quad 4: 10-1 Auburn NET rank: 57 Record: 11-14 Quad 1: 0-11 Quad 2: 1-0 Quad 3: 3-2 Quad 4: 7-1 • • • Sign up for the Sports Today newsletter to get daily updates on the Bucs, Rays, Lightning and college football across Florida. Never miss out on the latest with your favorite Tampa Bay sports teams. Follow our coverage on Instagram, X and Facebook.
USA Today
13-02-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Florida moves into No. 4 in NET rankings after toughest stretch of season
Florida moves into No. 4 in NET rankings after toughest stretch of season The Florida Gators are back in the No. 4 spot of the NET Rankings after a two-week stretch at No. 5. The impetus for the move is a 3-1 finish through arguably the toughest four-game stretch in the sport. Florida dropped its road game against Tennessee on Feb. 1 by 20 points but responded with an 11-point win at home over Vanderbilt, a nine-point road win over No. 1 Auburn (Florida's second victory over a No. 1 this season) and a 13-point road win over Mississippi State Tuesday night. Auburn, Duke and Houston still fill out the top three, in that order, and Tennessee and Alabama give the SEC four teams inside the top six. Rounding out the top 10 are Iowa State, Purdue, Texas Tech and Arizona; Purdue and Texas Tech recently swapped places. Florida has just seven games left in the regular season, four of which are Quadrant 1 matchups. Following the tough stretch, Florida gets a bit of a breather facing South Carolina and Oklahoma at home (Q3 and Q2) and LSU on the road (Q2). It's important to remember that while they are called 'rankings' the NET is an evaluation tool at heart — that's what the E and T stand for. It's not a hard list and is more of a sorting tool for the selection committee come bracket time. The rankings rely on a quadrant system (below), where Quadrant 1 (Q1) wins and Q3/Q4 losses matter the most. 'The 2024-25 men's basketball season marks the seventh season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams,' according to the NCAA. Breaking down Florida's wins by Quadrant Before going into Florida's resume, it's important to understand how the quadrants are divided. Where a game is played has as much to do with the quadrant as the quality of the opponent. As the rankings change, so do the quality of the wins. For example, Florida's win over Florida State was a Q1 victory when the game was played but spent most of the non-conference slate as a downgraded Q2 win. Then FSU stabilized and returned to Quad 1 status before moving back into Q2 territory at the start of February. Nothing is guaranteed until the conference tournaments come to an end. Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75 Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135 Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240 Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353 North Carolina remains a neutral-site Q1 opponent at No. 50 but is right on the threshold. All three of Florida losses to No. 5 Tennessee, No. 15 Kentucky and No. 19 Tennessee are Q1 losses, and the Gators have Q1 wins over No. 1 Auburn, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 30 Mississippi State, No. 41 Arkansas and No. 42 Vanderbilt. (Florida vs. Q1: 5-3) As mentioned above, the Florida State (No. 83) win is back in Q2 range, joining neutral-site wins over No. 63 Arizona State and No. 67 Wake Forest in the non-conference slate. During SEC play, Florida has beaten No. 33 Texas, No. 35 Georgia and No. 42 Vanderbilt at home and No. 90 South Carolina on the road. (Florida vs. Q2: 7-0) Florida's season-opening win against No. 195 South Florida on a neutral court is the first of three Gators Q3 wins. Wins over No. 146 Wichita State (neutral site) and No. 105 Virginia at home round out the smallest group in this breakdown. (Florida vs. Q3: 3-0) All six of Florida's Q4 wins have come at home. There's little hope for Florida A&M (No. 318), Grambling (No. 328) and Stetson (No. 352) to reclassify, and North Florida (No. 235) is running out of time. Jacksonville (No. 169) and Southern Illinois (No. 185) are both trending up, though. (Florida vs. Q4: 6-0) Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
