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Indian Express
5 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
Niti Aayog asks if think-tanks should work on new data as MoSPI says alternative data can be used in official stats
Even as the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) presses ahead with the use of alternative sources of data in India's official statistics, the NITI Aayog has asked if the ministry should even be engaging with such data sets. Speaking on Thursday at the start of a two-day workshop on 'Using Alternate Data Sources and Frontier Technologies for Policy Making', NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Suman Bery questioned if these new areas should be a priority for MoSPI and cautioned that they should 'not become an all-consuming task or preoccupation', although he added that using new data sources and technologies is 'very powerful' as it helps give a sense about the direction in which the economy is headed in a fast-moving world for real-time interventions. 'I would also make the point that to some extent the issue of whether all of this should be going on in MoSPI and in the statistical infrastructure or whether it should be going on in our rich network of think tanks is, I think, an appropriate issue. For example, NCAER… has a centre for data analytics,' Bery said. New Delhi-based think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) set up a National Data Innovation Centre in 2017 to serve as a 'laboratory for experiments in data collection', among other objectives. Meanwhile, speaking at the same workshop, MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said alternate data sources and frontier technology have 'reached a stage that we can actually use it for official statistics' and that this augured well for the future of data analysis. In an interview to The Indian Express, published on Thursday, Garg had said the Statistics Ministry is looking to use data from sources such as online booking platforms for air and rail fares and over-the-top (OTT) streaming services, among others, for the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series that will be released in early 2026. 'For the new CPI series, MoSPI is expanding its approach by exploring alternative data sources, such as online platforms for airfare, rail fare, OTT platforms and administrative records for price data of petrol, diesel and LPG. Discussions are ongoing with IRCTC, under the Ministry of Railways, and the PPAC under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas for direct transfer of data for integration in CPI,' Garg said. MoSPI is in the process of revising its key macroeconomic indicators — CPI, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Apart from updating the base years to 2022-23 for GDP and IIP, and 2024 for CPI, the revision exercise will also see changes in methodology used to compute the indicators. In addition, the updated CPI series will be based on a new basket of goods and services as per the findings of MoSPI's recent Household Consumption Expenditure Survey. This could result in near-obsolete items such as audio casettes being removed from the CPI basket, with prices of more contemporary goods like treadmills being used in the measurement of retail inflation. 'Intelligent integration' Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, also speaking at the workshop, pushed for the use of alternative data in official statistics. While surveys, administrative, and national accounts data remain indispensable as inputs in making decisions, the pace, complexity, and granularity required by modern policymaking and the challenges attached to them 'have exposed limitations in both the periodicity and dimensionality of such data,' he said. According to Nageswaran, alternative data such as satellite-based night-time luminosity — used as a proxy for economic activity in areas with delayed or weak statistical reporting — and other satellite data can help policymakers monitor industrial activity, road connectivity, and cropping patterns, among others. 'These insights can inform timely decisions on input provisioning, crop insurance payouts, and regional procurement strategies,' he said. These new types of data capture emergent behaviour, respond faster to shocks, and reflect the 'lived experience of economic agents in ways that conventional aggregates sometimes cannot,' he added. However, the government's top economist warned that while alternative data can help policymakers move from 'retrospective diagnostics to proactive intervention', they could not replace official statistics and warranted 'intelligent integration'. 'Therefore, the mature approach is not to choose between official and alternative data but to design systems where each informs and validates the other, especially in environments where timely action is crucial,' Nageswaran said, adding that enthusiasm must be tempered with prudence as official data still carried a 'certain higher sense of authenticity and reliability and accuracy given the years of usage and in-built checks and balances'. With reference to frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence, Nageswaran said the 'black box nature of certain algorithms, the potential for bias embedded in training data, and risks to individual privacy must be actively mitigated through robust governance frameworks'. Further, these technologies should be deployed in a way that they are tailored to institutional absorption capacity. 'A well-designed algorithm is only as effective as the human systems interpreting and acting upon its output,' the chief economic adviser said. Aanchal Magazine is Senior Assistant Editor with The Indian Express and reports on the macro economy and fiscal policy, with a special focus on economic science, labour trends, taxation and revenue metrics. With over 13 years of newsroom experience, she has also reported in detail on macroeconomic data such as trends and policy actions related to inflation, GDP growth and fiscal arithmetic. Interested in the history of her homeland, Kashmir, she likes to read about its culture and tradition in her spare time, along with trying to map the journeys of displacement from there. ... Read More
Time of India
09-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Can India create an effective framework to bridge the skill gap in its workforce?
Skill shortage, where job vacancies remain unfilled due to a lack of qualified candidates. Skill gap, where individuals, even if formally qualified, lack actual competencies needed to perform effectively on the job. The study also broadens the definition of 'skills' to include not only technical and vocational proficiency, but also cognitive and socio-emotional capabilities - all of which are critical for productivity and long-term employability. To test and validate the proposed framework, the study took a stepwise approach. Live Events Selected 7 high-growth sectors based on such indicators as their contribution to GVA, employment share, growth trajectory and strategic relevance. Additional parameters such as input-output multipliers and sunrise potential were used to identify sectors most likely to drive employment in the short-to-medium term. Roles, as defined by Sector Skill Councils (SSCs), were aligned with National Classification of Occupations (NCO) 2015 to ensure consistency across data and analytical frameworks. This harmonisation enables more accurate forecasting and helps align skill development efforts with actual labour market needs. Macro-level workforce analysis included examining the profile of workers - educational qualifications (general, technical and vocational), gender and occupation types - using available national datasets like PLFS and Annual Survey of Industries. Simultaneously, the study identified geographical clusters across states and districts to understand where economic and employment activity is concentrated. Input-output modelling techniques used to forecast shifts in job demand over a 3-year horizon. Drawing on data from NAS, PLFS and international growth forecasts, these simulations offered insights into the scale and nature of workforce requirements likely to emerge across sectors. Identification of top occupations or potentially facing skill shortages and/or gaps, stakeholders across the value chain were systematically mapped and interviewed. India needs a dynamic framework to track skill demand and supply. While national and state-level studies have been conducted since 2011, lack of a common methodology has made it difficult to reconcile a national 2024-25, skill development and entrepreneurship ministry and NCAER launched a study to build a unified, scalable framework for skill gap assessment . This aimed to create a regularly updated system for tracking skill needs across states and sectors. It proposes a dynamic framework that enables continuous monitoring and periodic countries with mature skill ecosystems rely on a combination of quantitative and qualitative tools to assess skill needs. India, too, has seen fragmented efforts by multiple institutions, each applying its own framework creates a baseline from which governments, training providers and employers can work together to better target resources, update training curricula, revise qualification packs, and identify underserved regions or occupations requiring focused it requires additional steps needed to make the system fully operational and responsive to real-time changes:A more robust and granular survey instrument can capture data on employment levels, wage structures, qualifications and skill requirements across non-agricultural enterprises, with district-level representation to ensure that local workforce trends are adequately reflected in national vacancies could serve as a practical proxy for identifying hard-to-fill roles. A common national definition of such vacancies would allow for consistent tracking across regions and labour market insights drawn from enterprise records, online job portals and digital employment platforms could help identify emerging occupations, spatial mismatches and shifting industry needs. This would allow for quicker course corrections and timely updates to training curricula and qualification task ahead is to institutionalise the MSDE-NCAER framework and align it with evolving labour market trends through regular data flows and support state-level adoption. For this to happen, skill-gap studies must become central to how we plan, fund and implement investments.
United News of India
03-05-2025
- Business
- United News of India
Dr Poonam Gupta takes over as Dy Governor of RBI
Mumbai, May 3 (UNI) Poonam Gupta has taken over as the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The government appointed her as Deputy Governor on April 2, 2025 for a period of three years from the date of assumption of charge or until further orders, whichever is earlier. As Deputy Governor, Dr Gupta will take charge of the monetary policy department, financial markets operations department, economic and policy research department, department of financial stability, international department, department of statistics and information management, corporate strategy and Budget department and department of communications. Prior to this appointment, Dr Gupta was the Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), dealing with issues related to economic development, international financial architecture, central banking, macro economic stability, public debt and state finance. She also served as a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister and Convener of the Advisory Council of the 16th Finance Commission. Prior to joining NCAER, Dr. Gupta held senior positions at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for nearly two decades. Dr. Gupta also taught at the Delhi School of Economics, University of Maryland (USA) and also served as a visiting faculty at the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Delhi. She has been an RBI Chair Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and a Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). Dr. Gupta has published several research papers and authored an edited book 'Emerging Giants: China and India in the World Economy'. She holds a Master's degree and PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland, USA, and a Master's degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi. UNI GNK PRS
Time of India
25-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's Business Confidence inches up to 139.3 in Q4: NCAER
NEW DELHI: India's Business Confidence Index (BCI) stayed strong in the fourth quarter of FY2024-25, indicating that businesses remain optimistic about the country's economic trajectory, according to the National Council of Applied Economic Research ( NCAER ). The index inched up to 139.3, slightly higher than 138.4 in the previous quarter and 138.2 in the same period last year, pointing to steady economic activity, albeit at a moderated pace. The BCI is based on four key components: Expectations of overall economic conditions over the next six months Expectations of a firm's own financial position over the next six months Assessment of the current investment climate Present capacity utilisation being close to or above the optimal level In Q4, over 50% of respondents remained optimistic across all four indicators, although the responses showed mixed trends when compared to the previous quarter. The share of firms expecting improvement in overall economic conditions over the next six months dipped slightly from 66.3% in Q3 to 64.7% in Q4. Expectations about their own financial position remained nearly unchanged, with 59.2% of firms expressing a positive outlook in Q4, compared to 59.3% in Q3. Despite these minor fluctuations, the sustained level of confidence underscores that businesses continue to perceive the macroeconomic environment as stable and supportive. Export sentiments decreased to 57.8 per cent, while import expectations rose to 46.1 per cent. Pre-tax profit optimism remained strong at 65.2 per cent, the report said. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Master Value & Valuation with ET! Learn to invest smartly & decode financials. Limited seats at 33% off – Enroll now!
Zawya
28-02-2025
- Business
- Zawya
India's GST collections surge in January 2025: Gross up 12.3%, net rises 10.9%: NCAER report
New Delhi: GST collections, gross and net, achieved robust double-digit growth of 12.3 per cent and 10.9 per cent respectively in January 2025, as compared to subdued growth of 7.3 per cent and 3.3 per cent in December 2024, according to NCAER monthly review. PMI for manufacturing increased to 57.7 in January, signalling expansion while PMI for services remained at an elevated level of 56.5. NCAER Director General Dr Poonam Gupta said, "Moderation in inflation (headline inflation to 4.3 per cent) has opened up more policy space. The agriculture sector is also exhibiting much-needed resilience, which bodes well for both inflation control and rural push to the economy." As of February 4, Rabi sowing for the 2024-25 season reached 104 per cent of the normal sown area while areas sown under rice and pulses reached 101.2 per cent and 100.3 per cent of the normal sown area respectively. Growth rate of bank credit, however, remained subdued at 11.2 per cent in December 2024, compared to 20.2 per cent in December 2023. Credit from banks to NBFCs too decelerated from 15 per cent in December 2023 to 6.7 per cent in December 2024. "Credit from NBFCs being important sources of consumer finance and finance for the SME sector, such subdued credit growth rates could further weigh on the economy's growth rate," said Dr Gupta. In this context, she welcomed the recent restoration of risk weight on the exposures of Scheduled Commercial Banks to NBFCs. The NCAER DG said another factor that needs to be monitored is the continued outflow of FII flows. "Empirical studies show that FII flows are driven more by external factors than by domestic ones, and hence are quite volatile in nature. As in the past, the current phase of reversal of FII flows from India is a global phenomenon and is associated with reversals from many other emerging markets," she said. Dr Gupta said that in order to attract more stable external funding, it would be desirable to prioritize FDI over FII inflows. Besides ensuring stable financing, FDI flows enable more direct access to global technology and markets. "Perhaps it would, therefore, make sense to accord priority to FDI inflows from the US in the ongoing discussions with the Trump Administration," she said. © Muscat Media Group Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
