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Business Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Thailand Q1 GDP growth beats forecast, but full-year forecast cut due to tariffs
[BANGKOK] Thailand's economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, data showed on Monday (May 19), but the state planning agency slashed its full-year growth and trade forecasts as US tariffs threaten the country's export engine. Thailand faces a 36 per cent tariff on shipments to the US, its biggest export market, if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a moratorium expires in July. The economy grew 3.1 per cent in the January-to-March quarter from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said, above market expectations of 2.9 per cent growth and just below the 3.3 per cent pace in the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council said. The agency cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.3 to 2.3 per cent from a range of 2.3 to 3.3 per cent seen earlier, saying high consumer and corporate debt burdens and the global trade war are expected to weigh on activity later in the year. 'This is not too pessimistic... and can be adjusted according to the changing situation,' NESDC head Danucha Pichayanan told a news conference. 'The impact of the US tariffs on the Thai economy is expected to last about two years as the economy already has structural problems,' he said. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up The NESDC cut its forecast for export growth this year to 1.8 per cent from 3.5 per cent. The main Thai stock index and the baht dropped slightly after the GDP data. 'Negative quarter-on-quarter GDP may be seen in the second half of the year,' Siam Commercial Bank economist Poonyawat Sreesing said, adding he expected two more interest rate cuts this year as the US tariffs slow economic activity. On a quarterly basis, South-east Asia's second-largest economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7 per cent in the March quarter, above the poll forecast of 0.6 per cent growth and 0.4 per cent growth in the prior quarter. The US tariffs were announced in early April, and while full implementation has been delayed there is a 10 per cent interim rate on shipments. Danucha said growth could slow in the current quarter as the private sector waited for clarity on the tariffs, but noted the government had prepared 200 billion baht (S$7.8 billion) for stimulus measures. Industrial sentiment fell to a six-month low in April due to concerns about the tariffs, the Federation of Thai Industries said on Monday. The NESDC also lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals to 37 million this year, from 38 million seen earlier, with Chinese tourists, the biggest source market, projected at five million. Tourist arrivals hit a record of nearly 40 million in 2019, the year before the Covid-19 pandemic. REUTERS
Free Malaysia Today
19-05-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Thailand cuts growth forecast on tariff uncertainty
Thailand cut the forecast for tourists from 38 million to 37 million after a drop in the number of Chinese visitors in the first quarter. (EPA Images pic) BANGKOK : Thailand has downgraded its 2025 economic forecast due to uncertainty over trade tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump, senior officials said today. The Southeast Asian country faces a 36% levy as part of sweeping global 'reciprocal' tariffs proposed by Washington unless a reduction can be agreed by July. The office of national economic and social development council (NESDC) said today that the economy grew by 3.1% from January-March compared with a year earlier. However, it lowered the growth forecast for the year to between 1.3% and 2.3%, down from 2.3% to 3.3%. Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the NESDC, blamed tariff uncertainty as well as a projected drop in tourist numbers in 2025 for the downgrade. 'The (trade) talks have not yet concluded and there are several countries waiting in line to discuss,' he told a news conference. He said the economic situation in the second quarter was likely to be slow, with the private sector delaying investments until the results of the trade talks emerge. Thailand also cut the forecast for tourists in 2025 to 37 million from 38 million after a drop in the number of Chinese tourists in the first quarter.
Malay Mail
19-05-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Thailand cuts 2025 growth forecast as US tariff threat looms and Chinese tourism dips
BANGKOK, May 19 — Thailand has downgraded its 2025 economic forecast due to uncertainty over trade tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump, senior officials said today. The Southeast Asian country faces a 36 percent levy as part of sweeping global 'reciprocal' tariffs proposed by Washington unless a reduction can be agreed by July. The Office of National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said today that the economy grew by 3.1 percent from January-March compared with a year earlier. However, it lowered the growth forecast for the year to between 1.3 percent and 2.3 percent, down from 2.3 percent to 3.3 percent Danucha Pichayanan, secretary general of the NESDC, blamed tariff uncertainty as well as a projected drop in tourist numbers in 2025 for the downgrade. 'The (trade) talks have not yet concluded and there are several countries waiting in line to discuss,' he told a news conference. He said the economic situation in the second quarter was likely to be slow, with the private sector delaying investments until the results of the trade talks emerge. Thailand also cut the forecast for tourists in 2025 to 37 million from 38 million after a drop in the number of Chinese tourists in the first quarter. — AFP
New Straits Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Thai Q1 GDP growth beats forecast, but full-year forecast cut due to tariffs
BANGKOK: Thailand's economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, data showed on Monday, but the state planning agency slashed its full-year growth and trade forecasts as US tariffs threaten the country's export engine. Thailand faces a 36 per cent tariff on shipments to the US, its biggest export market, if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a moratorium expires in July. The economy grew 3.10 per cent in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said, above market expectations of 2.90 per cent growth and just below the 3.30 per cent pace in the previous quarter, the NESDC said. The agency cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to between 1.30 per cent and 2.30 per cent from a range of 2.30 per cent to 3.30 per cent seen earlier, saying high consumer and corporate debt burdens and the global trade war are expected to weigh on activity later in the year. "This is not too pessimistic... and can be adjusted according to the changing situation," NESDC head Danucha Pichayanan told a news conference. "The impact of the US tariffs on the Thai economy is expected to last about two years as the economy already has structural problems," he said. The NESDC cut its forecast for export growth this year to 1.80 per cent from 3.50 per cent. The main Thai stock index and the baht dropped slightly after the GDP data. "Negative quarter-on-quarter GDP may be seen in the second half of the year," Siam Commercial Bank economist Poonyawat Sreesing said, adding he expected two more interest rate cuts this year as the US tariffs slow economic activity. On a quarterly basis, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.70 per cent in the March quarter, above the poll forecast of 0.60 per cent growth and 0.40 per cent growth in the prior quarter. The US tariffs were announced in early April, and while full implementation has been delayed there is a 10 per cent interim rate on shipments. Danucha said growth could slow in the current quarter as the private sector waited for clarity on the tariffs, but noted the government had prepared RM200 billion (US$6 billion) for stimulus measures. Industrial sentiment fell to a six-month low in April due to concerns about the tariffs, the Federation of Thai Industries said on Monday. The NESDC also lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals to 37 million this year, from 38 million seen earlier, with Chinese tourists, the biggest source market, projected at five million. Tourist arrivals hit a record of nearly 40 million in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Business Recorder
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Thai Q1 GDP growth beats expectations, but full-year forecast cut
BANGKOK: Thailand's economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025, data showed on Monday, but the state planning agency cut its full-year growth forecasts as US tariffs threaten to hit the country's export engine. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 3.1% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, slowing slightly from a revised 3.3% pace in the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council said. The growth rate was above a median forecast of 2.9% growth in a Reuters poll. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in the March quarter, above the poll forecast of 0.6% growth and 0.4% growth in the prior quarter. Growth at the start of 2025 was helped by private consumption and government expenditure, but high consumer and corporate debt burdens and the global trade war are expected to weigh on activity later in the year, the NESDC said in a statement. Thai consumer confidence hits 7-month low in April due to US tariffs The agency cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.3% to 2.3% from a range of 2.3% to 3.3% seen earlier, and also lowered its forecast for export growth to 1.8% from 3.5%. Foreign tourist arrivals are now seen at 37 million this year, down from an earlier projection of 38 million, the NESDC said. Tourist arrivals hit a record of nearly 40 million in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic.
