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Straits Times
26-05-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Trump's 50% EU tariff threat could cause economic damage beyond Europe
The Custom House in Dublin last year. A 50 per cent tariff would hit the continent hard, hurt the US economy and slow growth globally. PHOTO: THERESE AHERNE/NYTIMES LONDON – Is it a negotiating tactic, a credible threat or a howl of rage? US President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 50 per cent tariff on all goods coming into the United States from the European Union starting next weekend was the latest zag after several zigs on trade policy that have befuddled financial markets, businesses and political leaders around the world. 'No one was expecting this,' said Agathe Demarais, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 'We essentially don't have a clue as to what it means.' Whatever the strategy – or lack of one – the economic fallout on the American, European and global economies will be severe if Trump follows through. Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at Dutch bank ING warned that such tariff levels could lead to a dreaded combination of higher inflation and slower growth in the US. Europe could be pushed into a recession, and global growth would fall. At the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Julian Hinz, a trade researcher, calculated that US economic growth would drop 1.5 per cent. The magnitude of this latest tariff jolt is significantly higher than the 20 per cent 'reciprocal' tariff that Trump announced for the EU in April and later paused. (That figure would have been added on top of an across-the-board global tariff of 10 per cent.) Many analysts said Trump's announcement was clearly a bid to pressure Europe, a region that he has treated with particular scorn. Yet they agreed that the president's announcement had caused damage. The scale of the increase in tariffs, the capricious manner in which they were threatened and the growing size of US budget deficits are unsettling financial markets, said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics. A week earlier, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, citing concern over Washington's ability to limit rising debt levels. 'This all points to concerns about policy direction in the US lacking credibility,' Mr Shearing said, and that the 'guardrails are coming off.' Companies across the board are already raising their assessments of the riskiness of investments in the US, a sign that uncertainty is dimming the allure of investing in America, said Mary E. Lovely, an emeritus professor of economics at Syracuse University. 'One of the president's big goals is to increase investment,' she said. 'But who wants to do manufacturing here when the president at any moment might put high taxes on things that you buy to produce, and you might be subject to retaliation from the markets into which you will sell?' The shift between oversize threats and reversals has become familiar. Mr Trump imposed high global tariffs and then quickly postponed them when the bond market shuddered. He threatened China with exorbitant tariffs of 145 per cent. When China hit back with a 125 per cent tariff on US goods, Trump took a step back. Two weeks ago, the two governments issued joint statements that they would suspend the highest tariffs for 90 days and negotiate. That experience is likely to bolster Europe's resolve. 'We've already seen what's happened with China, which is that he climbed down,' said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. If you hit back hard, markets will get nervous, and Trump will back off. 'That's the message' that the Europeans have absorbed, he said. But as several analysts pointed out, it's hard for the Europeans to negotiate when Trump has not made it at all clear what he wants. And the notion that Europe could be pressured to quickly make concessions shows a deep misunderstanding of what it takes to reach a consensus among the EU's 27 very different members. Still, European officials have prepared a raft of countermeasures in response to higher US tariffs. Roughly a fifth of EU exports go the US, and about the same share of American exports go to the European Union. 'We're playing for big stakes here,' Mr Obstfeld said. 'There's the ability of both sides to do substantial damage to the other.' In addition to wide-ranging tariffs on automobiles, food items and automobile parts, the EU has threatened to put tariffs on the American services sector. That is a serious vulnerability since service industries like technology, finance and travel make up the bulk of the US economy and European consumers are major users of them. If Trump does end up imposing 50 per cent tariffs on June 1, Ireland – the European country with the most trade with the United States – would be hit the hardest, with an estimated 4 per cent decline in total economic output, according to Capital Economics. Germany's gross domestic product is projected to shrink by around 1.5 per cent, Italy's by 1.2 per cent, France by 0.75 per cent and Spain by 0.5 per cent. To some degree, the policy swings coming out of the White House may simply depend on which adviser was the last to speak to the president, said Mark Blyth, a political economist at Brown University. Given Trump's repeated claim that the EU has long been 'ripping off' the US, it's worth remembering that in 2008, both had the same size economies, Mr Blyth added. Now, Europe's economy is one-third smaller. 'How can you be ripping someone off,' Mr Blyth asked, 'if you're a third poorer than them?' NYTIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Harvard Law paid $36 for a copy of the Magna Carta. Surprise! It's an original
A 'copy' of the Magna Carta owned by Harvard Law School was, in fact, an extraordinarily rare original from 1300. PHOTO: LORIN GRANGER/NYTIMES LONDON – Bought for US$27.50 (S$35.70) after World War II, the faint, water-stained manuscript in the library of Harvard Law School had attracted relatively little attention since it arrived there in 1946. That is about to change. Two British academics, one of whom saw the manuscript by chance, have discovered that it is an original 1300 version – not a copy, as long thought – of the Magna Carta, the medieval document that helped establish some of the world's most cherished liberties. It is one of just seven such documents from that date still in existence. 'I never in all my life expected to discover a Magna Carta,' said Professor David Carpenter, who teaches mediaeval history at King's College London, describing the moment in December 2023 when he made the startling find. The manuscript's value is hard to estimate, although it is fair to say that its price tag of under US$30 (about US$500 today) must make it one of the bargains of the last century. A 710-year-old version of Magna Carta was sold in 2007 for US$21.3 million. Professor Nicholas Vincent, of the University of East Anglia, in eastern England, helped authenticate the text. He noted that the document, which bound Britain's rulers to acting within the law, resurfaced at a time when Harvard has come under extraordinary pressure from the Trump administration. 'In this particular instance, we are dealing with an institution that is under direct attack from the state itself, so it's almost providential it has turned up where it has at this particular time,' he said. 'You and I both know what that is!' Providential or not, the discovery happened largely by chance. Prof Carpenter was at home in Blackheath, south-east London, ploughing his way through Harvard Law School's digital images as research for a book when he opened a file named HLS MS 172, the catalogue name for Harvard Law School Manuscript 172. 'I get down to 172 and it's a single parchment sheet of Magna Carta,' he said. 'And I think, 'Oh my God, this looks to me for all the world – because I read it – like an original'.' Prof Carpenter e-mailed Prof Vincent, who was, at the time, at work in a library in Brussels. 'David sent it with a message saying, 'What do you think that is?'' said Prof Vincent. 'I wrote back within seconds, saying, 'You and I both know what that is!'' The two academics were able to confirm the manuscript's authenticity after Harvard Law School photographed it under ultraviolet light and then subjected it to various levels of spectral imaging, a technique that can enhance aspects of historical documents undetectable to the human eye. Comparing it with six previously known originals from 1300, the professors found that the text matched, as did the dimensions: 489 mm x 473 mm. The handwriting used in the manuscript, with a large capital 'E' at the start in 'Edwardus' and elongated letters in the first line, also tallied. 'It's the best sort of thing that can happen to a librarian,' said Ms Amanda Watson, assistant dean at Harvard Law School's library. 'This is our daily work to digitalise things, to preserve things, to save things, to open things up for people like David Carpenter.' Ms Watson said the document itself had sometimes been put on display, but, as part of a large collection, it was not kept out permanently. The library has yet to decide whether it will now be made available to the public, but Ms Watson said she 'can't imagine' that it would be sold. 'In the United States, having things that are 700 years old is special,' added Professor Jonathan Zittrain, chair of the Harvard Law School library. The Magna Carta resurfaced at a time when Harvard has come under extraordinary pressure from the Trump administration. PHOTO: REUTERS 'The law of the land' The Magna Carta – 'Great Charter' in Latin – has been used to justify many different causes over the centuries, sometimes on shaky historical ground. But it has evolved into a global symbol of the importance of fundamental freedoms, including habeas corpus. By limiting the power of the monarch, it came to represent the right to protection against arbitrary and unjust rule. One of its most famous passages states: 'No free man shall be seized or imprisoned, or stripped of his rights or possessions, or outlawed or exiled, or deprived of his standing in any other way, nor will we proceed with force against him, or send others to do so, except by the lawful judgment of his equals or by the law of the land.' First issued in 1215, it put into writing a set of concessions won by rebellious barons from a recalcitrant King John of England – or Bad King John, as he became known in folklore. He later revoked the charter, but his son, King Henry III, issued amended versions, the last one in 1225, and King Henry's son, King Edward I, in turn confirmed the 1225 version in 1297 and again in 1300. A researcher analyses photographs of the Magna Carta, a medieval text held in the Harvard Law School library for 80 years. PHOTO: DEBORA MAYER/NYTIMES The document influenced the US Constitution, and the Bill of Rights includes several provisions that are thought to descend from the Magna Carta. There are 25 original manuscripts of the Magna Carta in all, produced at various times. Including the one at Harvard, only three are outside Britain. Harvard Law School bought its version from a London legal book dealer, Sweet & Maxwell, which in turn purchased the manuscript in December 1945 from Sotheby's, the auctioneers. In the 1945 auction catalogue, it was listed as a copy and with the wrong date (1327) and was sold for £42 (S$72) – about a fifth of the average annual income in Britain at the time – on behalf of Air Vice-Marshal Forster Maynard, who served as a fighter pilot in World War I. Air Vice-Marshal Maynard inherited it from the family of Thomas and John Clarkson, who were leading campaigners in Britain against the slave trade from the 1780s onward. Prof Vincent believes the document could be a lost Magna Carta that was once issued to the former parliamentary borough of Appleby-in-Westmorland, in the north of England, and which was last mentioned in print in 1762. While undoubtedly famous, many Britons seem to have a hazy knowledge of the document. Former prime minister David Cameron was famously unable to translate the term Magna Carta when asked by David Letterman on his late-night talk show in 2012. But few doubt its significance in the evolution of Western notions of rights and freedoms. With some of those now more under threat, Prof Vincent said the discovery at Harvard was timely. The Magna Carta, he said, places the king under the rule of law. The 'head of state cannot simply go against somebody because he doesn't like them. He has to do it using the law,' he said. The text of the charter is incorporated within 17 state constitutions of the United States, he added, 'so there is more of it in American state law than there is in the UK.' NYTIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
26-04-2025
- Straits Times
Enjoy London on the cheap
Though London often winds up on lists of the world's most expensive cities, budget travellers will find plenty of free affordable distractions. PHOTO: ALICE ZOO/NYTIMES LONDON – Jet lag can be demanding. Within an hour of arriving in London, my case led me to a £5.50 (S$10) slice of lemon, raspberry and pistachio cake at the cafe in the Victoria and Albert Museum. The museum itself was free and included the unquantifiable payoff of dining in opulent 1868-vintage rooms with arches, stained glass and William Morris wallpaper. It fit my bottom line on travel in London: Free museums, priceless surroundings and slightly expensive food that together deliver a net gain. Though London often winds up on lists of the world's most expensive cities, travellers will find free attractions and arresting architecture linked by easy-to-navigate public transportation. Hotel prices often seem high. But unlike rates in the United States, they generally include taxes and extras like breakfast . And tipping is not standard, so you can save 15 to 20 per cent on each meal. There are many worthy ways to splurge in London, including visiting landmarks such as the Tower of London (£35), Westminster Abbey (£30) and St Paul's Cathedral (£26). I took a wide-angle approach over a recent four-day, budget-stretching trip, staying in three neighbourhoods – one central and two more outlying – to assess what is gained and lost by chasing bargains. A combination of free art, attractions and £4 lunches, with some minor splurges on entertainment, kept my expenses to about US$200 (S$260) a day. Secrets and salt beef To reach the V&A from the airport, I took the Heathrow Express train to Paddington Station (£25) in 15 minutes, which saved me more than half an hour on the Tube underground train (£5.60). The airport is distant, but most bus and subway rides within central London cost less than £3 and are capped at £8.90 a day when you use the same credit card or electronic payment method each time. In addition to cake, jet lag led me to a Secret London Tour from Fun London Tours (£18). I hoped the 90-minute walk would keep me moving despite exhaustion. In Trafalgar Square, I met Mr Joe Brown, a former London cabby who guided our group of 15 to 'secrets' that were hidden in plain sight. They included a Trafalgar Square police station disguised as a light fixture; Goodwin's Court, a Covent Garden alley lined with 17th-century buildings; and the last street lamp lit by sewer gas located, ironically, near the high-end Savoy hotel. A room at the Buxton hotel in the Brick Lane area of East London. PHOTO: ALICE ZOO/NYTIMES My cheaper lodging choice in the Brick Lane area of East London took about 30 minutes to reach by the Tube. With 15 cosy rooms above a small, stylish restaurant, the Buxton's thoughtfully designed quarters included espresso machines and books on the city from the nearby Libreria Bookshop. Though the room (£150) was a reach for my budget, it included a generous breakfast. The location anchored me in lively Brick Lane, where markets and restaurants run by Bangladeshi entrepreneurs meet street art, vintage clothing shops and bakeries selling beigels (also known as bagels) with salt beef (about £8). Art with backstories Sherlock Holmes, Scrooge, Shakespeare. London is synonymous with incredible characters. But have you heard the one about Canaletto? A Venetian, Giovanni Antonio Canal, known as Canaletto, was a favourite of 18th-century British travellers to Venice, where he sold detailed, souvenir-size paintings. When an Austrian war stifled travel in 1740, he followed his fans to London, only to find forgers making a fortune impersonating him. In 1749, he painted London: The Old Horse Guards From St James's Park, a broad canvas of blushing clouds above a cityscape now hanging in the Tate Britain (free). 'Canaletto painted this large canvas to prove he was not an impostor,' said Mr Malcolm Morris, a gallery docent. The gallery also displays artworks made in the country or by artists including John Singer Sargent and J.M.W. Turner over the last 500 years. A traveller records a video of the Palace of Westminster while riding an Uber Boat in London. PHOTO: ALICE ZOO/NYTIMES From the Tate Britain, I headed to the riverbank and caught an Uber Boat by Thames Clippers (£9) for the six-stop ride past the Palace of Westminster and Big Ben to the south shore Southwark area bound for the bustling Borough Market. Dating to 1756, the indoor-outdoor complex hosts produce stands, cheese shops and wine stores among a world of prepared-food vendors. Crowds shuffled through the market scarfing down oysters, paella, shawarma and cannoli while vendors hawked samples of wild mushroom risotto and triple-cooked chips. I settled on a pork, Parmesan and fennel slaw ciabatta sandwich from the Black Pig (£12) that was big enough for two. Artists work in the subterranean Leake Street Arches, a colourful, constantly changing gallery of street art in the South Bank area of London. PHOTO: ALICE ZOO/NYTIMES I walked it off along the untouristed streets of neighbouring South Bank to reach Waterloo Station and its subterranean Leake Street Arches. Street artist Banksy began painting in the abandoned, nearly 300m-long Leake Street tunnel in 2008. Today, it is a constantly changing gallery of spray-paint ed works (free). The price-location trade-off The Dalston Eastern Curve Garden, with an outdoor cafe and park, is situated on a former railway line. PHOTO: ALICE ZOO/NYTIMES On day two, I moved to another East London neighbourhood, Dalston, for a residential stay and the chance to explore the area's offbeat attractions, including the Dalston Eastern Curve Garden, a former railway line turned into an outdoor cafe and park (free), and the Dusty Knuckle, a bakery that supports at-risk youth with job training in baking crusty sourdough (£5) and shattering croissants (£3). The loft-style Luxury Inn, home to four rooms (from £110, including breakfast) in a former industrial building, also exerted considerable sway. My airy room offered shared access to a sky-lit living room and well-stocked kitchen. Escaping London's teeming tourist districts was its own attraction, but returning to Soho, a buzzy nightlife quarter near the West End theatre, took 40 minutes on a double-decker bus during rush hour. I made it in time for a pre-theatre meal at the 30-seat Bao Soho, which caters to diners at the bar with a 'Long Day Menu' of five small Taiwanese courses, including savoury peanut milk, fried chicken and guinea fowl rice (£20). I then walked to the former Playhouse Theatre renamed the Kit Kat Club in honour of its resident show, Cabaret, where I had booked a relatively cheap seat in the second to last row (£50). The performance was electric, even viewed from two storeys up. Cabstand and crypt dining On my last day, I moved to the more central Bloomsbury area and the no-frills Judd Hotel, with a crescent-shaped Georgian exterior. My tidy single accommodated little more than a narrow bed and desk, but I was paying for location (£154, including breakfast). Patrons outside Cabmen's Shelter in London. Only taxi drivers are welcomed inside the cafe on Russell Square. Other patrons use the takeaway window. PHOTO: ALICE ZOO/NYTIMES I found a more distinctive breakfast option nearby in Russell Square, home to Cabmen's Shelter, one of 13 remaining green cottages conceived in 1875 as roadside rest stops for carriage drivers. Today, only taxi drivers are welcomed inside for meals while a public window sells basic bargain fare (£5 for eggs with sausage and bacon) for takeaway to a park bench. Around the corner, the 10am opening-hour line for the British Museum (free) was snaking down the block. The vast collections of antiquities are overwhelming. My stimulation limit was two hours, enough time to explore Rooms 4 (Egyptian sculpture) and 41 (the remains of the Anglo-Saxon burial ship Sutton Hoo, which was the subject of the 2021 film, The Dig). Inside St Martin-in-the-Fields, a centuries-old Anglican church in Trafalgar Square that is renowned for its music programming. PHOTO: ALICE ZOO/NYTIMES By noon, I was back in Trafalgar Square at St Martin-in-the-Fields, an Anglican church with 13th-century roots – the current building dates to 1726 – which is renowned for its music programming, including bargain Friday afternoon concerts (£10). From a wooden pew, I caught classical Indian vocalist Sach Dhanjal accompanied by a moody harmonium and a hand drum. Before the 1pm show, I visited the church's Cafe in the Crypt, serving bargain food in the brick-vaulted basement. Healthy servings of two delicious salads for £4 – quinoa and beets, and pearled couscous with chicken – was the food bargain of the trip. That evening, I aimed for a London double feature – a pub and a show – by visiting a pub theatre. Normally above a bar, pub theatres showcase local comedians, theatre companies and emerging artists in small venues. I arrived in the Earl's Court neighbourhood to find the pub downstairs from the Finborough Theatre disappointingly closed for renovation. But the show, a riveting revival of the 1933 screenplay The Silver Cord (£35), more than compensated. 'It's like being inside the telly,' said my seatmate on one of 10 cushioned benches arrayed around the set representing a New England living room. Afterwards, the Tube whisked me back to busy Chinatown for a messy late-night crepe from Chinese Tapas House (£5) and the always-free theatre of London street life. NYTIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
