Latest news with #NaheedNenshi
National Post
7 days ago
- Business
- National Post
Poll finds that Alberta-Ottawa tensions are boosting Smith's popularity
OTTAWA — Separatist winds are lifting the political sails of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, according to a study from an Alberta pollsters. Article content Article content The provincewide poll, taken this month by Janet Brown, found that Smith's popularity has ticked upward from the same time last year, giving her a double-digit edge over rival Naheed Nenshi. Article content Brown told the National Post that the perception that Smith is better at dealing with Ottawa is part of what's driving her favourables. Article content Article content 'Right now… the thing that we see that's most strongly correlated with (Smith's) support numbers, is the relationship with Ottawa,' said Brown. Article content Brown noted that Smith is doing especially well with the 'middle third' of Albertans who still identify strongly as Canadians, but still think that the province is being treated unfairly by Ottawa. Article content 'They don't necessarily want to separate, but they don't want the status quo either… and the NDP hasn't really been speaking to this group,' said Brown. Article content Brown noted that, on the question of identity, Albertans were split neatly into thirds, with 32 per cent saying they felt most attached to Alberta, 34 per cent saying they felt more attached to Canada, and 33 per cent saying they were attached to both equally. Article content Smith spoke directly to this third, ambivalent group in a livestreamed address to Albertans earlier this month. Article content 'And then there are hundreds of thousands of Albertans that probably feel a lot like I do — that are deeply frustrated with the way our province has been mistreated (but) still believe there is a viable path (for Alberta) to succeed and prosper within a united Canada,' Smith told viewers. Article content Nenshi, by contrast, has staked out a hardline position as a staunch federalist and defender of Canadian identity, accusing Smith of playing 'stupid separatist games ' and calling Alberta separatism an 'extremist fringe agenda.' Article content Nenshi's Alberta NDP has also launched the website to mobilize opposition to the premier. Article content Brown added that Albertans are currently giving Prime Minister Mark Carney 'the benefit of the doubt' and holding out to see if he and Smith are able to strike a deal on national unity. Article content The survey showed Smith's United Conservative Party leading across all age demographic and on-track to win a commanding 17-seat majority in the next provincial election. Article content The poll was taken between May 7 and 21, using a random sample of 1,200 Albertans contacted by phone (40 per cent landline, 60 per cent cell phone), carrying a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20. Article content
CBC
7 days ago
- Business
- CBC
NDP still waiting for Nenshi wave: poll shows party farther behind UCP with new leader
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research to be conducted immediately following the federal election and leading into the second anniversary of the United Conservative Party's provincial election win in May 2023. As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time. This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow. Naheed Nenshi, the Alberta NDP leader and prolific public speaker, spent 55 minutes delivering a speech to his party's convention in early May about the state of Alberta politics and where he wants to take his movement and province. Well, at least most of it was present- and future-focused. He spent 11 minutes near the top of his address looking back at the Calgary flood — the defining moment of his mayoralty. A dozen years ago. At one point in that reminiscence, he became self-aware he was dwelling on the past. "So I know this feels like an old story," Nenshi said. "Why is he going back to the greatest hits?" He then tried to bridge his storytelling about Calgary's flood-time resilience into a metaphor about the UCP government. "It's a flood of economic uncertainty. It's a flood of attacks on our public services. It's a flood of policies that divide rather than unite. And today, my friends, we're going to start stopping that flood." But it seems like the hero of 2013 Calgary isn't stirring hearts in 2025 Alberta, according to new polling from Janet Brown Opinion Research. Ex-mayor behind in cities The massive enthusiasm that surrounded his big win last year as the Opposition party's leader appears to have failed to resonate beyond his base. He was a star recruit from outside the NDP ranks, selected to deliver victory after former premier Rachel Notley had failed in her second and third bids to return the party to that electoral Jerusalem. However, NDP fortunes have fallen sharply in Calgary under its first Calgarian leader. They'd narrowly won the popular vote and won the most seats in the province's largest city in 2023, but now trail the UCP there by 13 percentage points, the poll shows — nearly as far back as they are provincewide. And in Edmonton, the city they swept (again) and won by 29 points in 2023, it's nearly a tie. Nenshi is running in a by-election in Notley's former riding of Edmonton–Strathcona, and is even mingling among the city's hockey fans in a newish team sweater. But he has a lot of ground to make up in his newly adoptive political home base to even bring the NDP back to its 2023 levels of success, let alone faring better than that next election. "Our life's work is not to be the biggest Opposition Alberta has ever seen," Nenshi told his party convention. "Our life's work is to be the best government Alberta's ever had." While the NDP brand often struggled, Notley in her latter years tended to enjoy higher personal support than her UCP rivals Jason Kenney and Danielle Smith. The progressive party's current leader holds no such edge, compared to the current premier. In both Edmonton and Calgary, more poll respondents are likely to say they have a negative impression of Nenshi than a positive one. Brown said he may have Smith to blame for his fortunes, as impressions of the premier have edged upward over her time in office. "It's always difficult to look at a leader in isolation because how well a leader is doing is always related to how well the person on the other end of the teeter-totter is doing," the pollster told CBC News. "So Danielle Smith probably owes something to Nenshi for how well she's doing, and Nenshi probably has to acknowledge that Smith is one of the reasons that he's not performing as well." Brown cites Smith's "dynamic" communicating skills — say, wasn't that Nenshi's reputation too? — but also her ability to dominate the agenda as premier. "She just takes up so much of the energy, it's hard for Nenshi to get into the debate," Brown said. Over his nearly one year as leader, Nenshi hasn't been able to get onto the legislature floor for any formal debate; but with a by-election win on June 23, he'll have that opportunity when the assembly resumes sitting in October. But getting in four weeks of question period jousts this fall won't likely matter much — not with so many other modern ways to make his political message heard, said Keith McLaughlin, a former NDP senior aide and strategist. To him, Nenshi should change the content and approach of his message, rather than expect the venue to improve things for him. "Voters want fighters, not feelers," McLaughlin said in an interview. "They don't want to go for a bleeding heart." While Nenshi's recollections of the Calgary spirit during the flood were well received by convention-goers, McLaughlin said, the partisans were far more energized by their leader's more spirited rhetoric about labour strife among education staff and about their rivals' flirtation with provincial separatism. David Climenhaga, a provincial NDP supporter and blogger, wrote after the Alberta convention that Nenshi's been "weirdly passive" when he's had the opportunity to take on Smith. "There are lots of social media videos, but I don't get the feeling Mr. Nenshi's professorial lectures have homed in on the issues that matter the most to the working Albertans whose votes the provincial NDP requires to push it over the top," Climenhaga wrote. However, time and circumstances may have prevented Nenshi from capitalizing on two of the biggest fights his NDP have taken to the United Conservatives. The opposition was girding for a big fight last fall, when Smith put forth her legislation making major policy changes on transgender youth health care and in schools in late October. But soon afterward, headlines were dominated by Donald Trump's victory south of the border, and his subsequent threats on Canadian sovereignty. Months later, controversy erupted over Alberta Health Services' contracting practices and the ouster of CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos. Nenshi's NDP swiftly branded it a scandal and demanded another ouster, that of Health Minister Adriana LaGrange. The Trump bump (of all else off the agenda) But other events dominated the headlines as those health-management stories broke, too. A newly inaugurated President Trump ramped up his tariff threats on Canada, and the rise of Liberal Leader Mark Carney and the federal election became the main story in Alberta and elsewhere, perhaps giving less spotlight to provincial politics, where Nenshi and his MLAs were busy fervently denouncing their rivals and trying to highlight the AHS saga. Brown also said she believes the recent evaporation of federal NDP support is helping drag down the provincial party. Nenshi's team has recently started referring to themselves as "Alberta's New Democrats" instead of using the NDP acronym — a subtle attempt to distance themselves from their federal cousins. That's on top of a more formal separation of federal and provincial branches. At the same convention where Nenshi shared his flood reminiscences, members voted to end automatic membership in the federal NDP for all provincial card-holders. They also showed unity behind their leader with an 89.5 per cent vote of support in his leadership review. The party is leaning on him in these by-elections. Not only is Nenshi's name on his own candidate lawn signs in Strathcona, but his cross-town colleague running in the vacant Edmonton-Ellerslie has a "Team Nenshi" logo in one corner that's larger than the party's logo in another corner. Despite his subpar performance in polls to date, there's far more patience than discontent among New Democrats with Nenshi, McLaughlin said. There's also awareness that he has time to make up ground before the next Alberta election in fall 2027. While his NDP remains united, there's sharp division At the end of Nenshi's speech, he spent three more minutes on one last 2013 Calgary flood story — about one family wracked by the disaster, and the shepherd's pie that strangers made for them. He spoke about the deep kindness and generosity of Albertans in the face of adversity, and then spoke of tapping into that spirit to overcome what Smith's UCP have wrought. It may have been a new anecdote to many of the non-Calgarians at this Alberta NDP event, but it's one that by 2014 had already been well-worn in Nenshi's rhetorical repertoire. He may choose to refresh the content of his speeches as he continues in his bid to overtake the UCP and Smith. Or, he could stick with his greatest hits, the pivotal moment of his past political career and for Calgary. But if the flood is still his favourite reference point come next election, he'll be seized by something that happened 14 years ago, when voters will be concerned about the next four years. The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 7 to 21, 2025, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger. The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e. residential and personal) was 12.8 per cent.
CTV News
27-05-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
3 byelections called in Alberta, including in Nenshi's riding
3 byelections called in Alberta, including in Nenshi's riding Albertans in three ridings will head to the polls on June 23, including the Edmonton-Strathcona riding, where NDP leader Naheed Nenshi will run.
Globe and Mail
27-05-2025
- Politics
- Globe and Mail
NDP's Nenshi will get chance to secure Alberta seat as Smith calls three by-elections
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has called three by-elections to take place on June 23. The three vacant ridings are Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Ellerslie and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi will run in Edmonton-Strathcona, which became vacant when former premier Rachel Notley resigned her seat late last year. It'll be Mr. Nenshi's first chance at getting a seat in the legislature since taking the party reins last summer. In an e-mail, NDP executive director Garett Spelliscy criticized Ms. Smith for waiting as long as she did to call Mr. Nenshi's by-election. Ms. Smith, in a statement, said her own candidates are up for the challenge. 'We need strong local leaders who will defend this province and get things done – and that's exactly what our UCP candidates will do,' she said. Facing off against Mr. Nenshi in Edmonton-Strathcona, which has voted NDP in 11 of the past 12 general elections dating back to 1986, will be United Conservative Party candidate Darby Crouch, who has worked as a government press secretary. In a statement Monday, the party described Crouch as a communications professional with experience in public service. Danielle Smith shuffles cabinet, makes major changes to health care roles 'I'm committed to Edmonton-Strathcona and to the people who live here. I'm ready to listen, show up and work hard every day for this community,' Mr. Crouch said. Besides candidates from Alberta's two main parties, Alberta Republican Party Leader Cam Davies is also running in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. A long-time conservative activist and organizer, Mr. Davies has become a key figure in Alberta's renewed separatist movement following last month's federal election. He said Monday that he's going into the by-election with a sense of momentum. 'Albertans are ready for change,' he said. 'They're ready to send a strong message.' Mr. Davies said even if he comes up short of winning, any result will be a sign of growth for the movement. The Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills riding became vacant earlier this month when Nathan Cooper, the former legislature Speaker and a long-time United Conservative representative, resigned to become Alberta's delegate in Washington, D.C. The Premier appointed Tara Sawyer, a farmer and former chair of the Grain Growers of Canada, to run under the United Conservative banner in the riding. The party's statement described Ms. Sawyer as a 'respected rural advocate' who would give farmers a strong voice at the table. The NDP has yet to announce its candidate, but a party spokesperson said one would be announced this week. Edmonton-Ellerslie became vacant in March when third-term NDP member Rod Loyola resigned to run for Mark Carney's Liberals in last month's federal election. The NDP's candidate for the riding is Gurtej Singh Brar. 'With strong local roots and a commitment to public service, he's ready to be a strong representative for Edmonton-Ellerslie in the legislature,' the NDP said earlier this month when Mr. Brar won the candidacy nomination. Facing Mr. Brar will be Naresh Bhardwaj, a former Alberta Progressive Conservative associate cabinet minister, who was first elected under the PC banner in 2008 and was re-elected in 2012. In 2013, then-premier Jim Prentice named Mr. Bhardwaj associate minister of persons with disabilities. He withdrew his candidacy heading into the 2015 election after being accused of bribing another prospective Progressive Conservative candidate not to run against him for the nomination. The party cleared him of any wrongdoing after an internal investigation, and the Edmonton Police Service closed its own investigation that fall without laying any charges.
CTV News
26-05-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
Alberta by-elections announced in 3 districts, including where NDP leader will run
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi can be seen at a press conference in Edmonton on April 30, 2025. (Sean McClune/CTV News Edmonton) Voters in Edmonton and Olds will take to the polls in June following the issue of writs for Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. The announcement comes after three orders in council were approved Monday afternoon. Election day is June 23 with advanced polls opening on June 17 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. On Dec. 30, 2024, NDP leader Rachel Notley stepped down, freeing up the stronghold position in Edmonton-Strathcona. Current party leader Naheed Nenshi announced that he will be running in her place earlier this year. Darby Crouch will run in Edmonton-Strathcona for the UCP. Gurtej Singh Brar was nominated as the NDP candidate for Edmonton-Ellerslie following a vote on May 14. Naresh Bhardwaj, who served as MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie from 2008 to 2015, will seek to return to the position after winning the UCP nomination on May 3. Bhardwaj withdrew from the 2015 general election after being accused – and cleared by the Progressive Conservative Party's investigation – of bribery. In Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Tara Sawyer will run for the UCP. An NDP candidate will be chosen on June 14. 'These candidates understand what's at stake,' said UCP leader Danielle Smith in a statement Monday. 'We need strong local leaders who will defend this province and get things done — and that's exactly what our UCP candidates will do." With files from CTV News Edmonton's Alex Antoneshyn
