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Iran-backed Hezbollah stays out of conflict with Israel as tensions escalate
One of Israel's most feared scenarios has long been that Iran would one day unleash an attack on the country in coordination with its powerful network of allied militant proxies.
Tehran spent decades arming and funding a number of Islamist groups in countries like Iraq, Yemen and Israel's northern neighbor Lebanon — all committed to bringing about Israel's demise.
Yet since Israel started its attack on Iran late last week, they've all been conspicuously absent from the unfolding conflict.
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Most notable of those is Hezbollah, once one of the most formidable non-state forces in the world and seen as the greatest asset of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Middle East.
The Lebanon-based group has been a mere observer as Israel and Iran trade fire for a fifth consecutive day, after Israel killed many of its leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal in a bombing and ground campaign in the second half of last year.
A key part of Hezbollah's mission as an Iran-backed militia across the border from Israel is to act as a deterrent to attacks meant to hurt the Islamic Republic.
Therefore as news emerged of Israel's initial salvo on Iran, eyes turned to Lebanon and the group's response. Naim Qasem, the organization's leader after Israel assassinated long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah in September, struck the usual tone of public support for Tehran and pledged defeat for Israel.
Yet a Lebanese government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said army leaders received indications from Hezbollah that it would not intervene.
The situation was very different at the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, a response to the October 2023 attacks by Hamas, another Iranian proxy group. Hezbollah began firing missiles at northern Israeli communities almost immediately, and the two sides exchanged limited but regular fire for the best part of a year.
Israel then dramatically stepped up its approach by exploding thousands of booby-trapped pagers and other mobile devices used by Hezbollah members, wounding many of them and leaving the group in disarray.
A subsequent military campaign saw Israel bombard parts of Beirut and target Hezbollah strongholds and commanders across the country before a November ceasefire — an ambiguous deal that appears to still allow Israel to strike any targets in Lebanon it deems a Hezbollah threat.
The offensive against Hezbollah destroyed swaths of south Lebanon, where the group is most influential. Reconstruction and recovery costs are estimated at $11 billion, something neither the Lebanese government nor Hezbollah have been able to secure so far.
With Iran's finances squeezed by sanctions and the cost of the unfolding war, it's difficult to see Hezbollah rebounding in the short term. That said, the group, which is also a political party, remains influential within Lebanon and may yet find a way to support its key backer.
Hezbollah's decline leaves only one other Iran-backed group with the ability to attack Israel in a significany way — the Houthis in Yemen. But they are probably too far away to present a major threat — reserving the bulk of their firepower to disrupt maritime shipping.
The US began a bombing campaign against the Houthis earlier this year but stopped last month after a ceasefire facilitated by Oman.
Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas are all designated terrorist organizations by the US.
The Lebanese army is more heavily deployed in the south of the country than it has been for years and has seized the arsenal left behind by Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun, elected in January with US backing, and his government have vowed to regain total control over arms in the country, though negotiations over Hezbollah's remaining stockpile have yet to start.
While it's not clear how much of Hezbollah's arsenal is still intact, the group has lost its freedom to maneuver, with Israeli drones buzzing almost daily over Beirut and jets continuously striking targets, according to Sami Nader, head of Beirut-based thinktank the Levant Institute.
'Internally, it's under massive pressure. Not only from Lebanese rivals but also its own constituencies who feel they paid the heaviest price,' Nader said.
