Latest news with #NancyVandenHouten
Khaleej Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
US weekly jobless claims at seven-month high; trade deficit posts record contraction
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased to a seven-month high last week, pointing to softening labor market conditions amid mounting economic headwinds from tariffs. The report from the Labour Department on Thursday also continued to show workers losing their jobs having a tough time landing new opportunities as uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy leaves employers reluctant to increase headcount. Economists said technical difficulties adjusting the data at the start of summer could have contributed to the second straight weekly increase in unemployment claims. Still, they said the data offered some evidence of labor market strains. "We won't dismiss the rise in claims over the last two weeks, which may be signaling weakening labor market conditions in response to the Trump administration's tariff policies and uncertainty," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "However, seasonal quirks might have contributed to the rise in claims." Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000 for the week ended May 31, the highest level since last October. Economists had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week. There was a sharp rise in unadjusted claims in Kentucky, likely related to layoffs in the motor vehicle industry amid duties on imported parts. There was also a notable increase in filings in Tennessee, which also has motor vehicle assembly plants. Claims surged in the prior week in Michigan, attributed to layoffs in the manufacturing industry. But companies are generally hoarding workers after struggling to find labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday showed "comments about uncertainty delaying hiring were widespread," noting that "all districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses and staff reduction plans." It said while some districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, "these layoffs were not pervasive." An Institute for Supply Management survey also made similar observations, reporting steady employment in the services sector in May, but also pointing out that "higher scrutiny is being placed on all jobs that need to be filled." U.S. stocks were trading lower. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, slipped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.904 million during the week ending May 24, the claims report showed. The elevation in the so-called continuing claims aligns with consumers' ebbing confidence in the labor market. The claims data have no bearing on the Labour Department's closely watched employment report for May, scheduled to be released on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 130,000 jobs last month after advancing by 177,000 in April, a Reuters survey of economists showed. The unemployment rate is forecast being unchanged at 4.2%. "A gradual but genuine slackening of the labor market is underway," said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. There was, however, some welcome news on the economy. A separate report from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the trade deficit narrowed sharply in April, with imports decreasing by the most on record as the front-running of goods ahead of tariffs ebbed, which could provide a lift to economic growth this quarter. The trade gap contracted by a record 55.5% to $61.6 billion, the lowest level since September 2023. The goods trade deficit eased by a record 46.2% to $87.4 billion, the lowest level since October 2023. A rush to beat import duties helped to widen the trade deficit in the first quarter, which accounted for a large part of the 0.2% annualized rate of decline in gross domestic product last quarter. The contraction in the deficit, at face value, suggests that trade could significantly add to GDP this quarter, but much would depend on the state of inventories. "The collapse in the trade gap in April, although unlikely to be sustained, points to a massive trade addition to GDP growth and, if the offset to the import swing is not measured in inventories, second-quarter measured GDP growth could be eye-popping, possibly in the area of 5%, but as meaningless as the first-quarter's decline in output," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital. Imports decreased by a record 16.3% to $351.0 billion in April. Goods imports slumped by a record 19.9% to $277.9 billion, held down by a $33.0 billion decline in imports of consumer goods, mostly pharmaceutical preparations from Ireland. Imports of cellphones and other household goods fell $3.5 billion. Industrial supplies and materials imports declined $23.3 billion, reflecting decreases in finished metal shapes and other precious metals. Motor vehicle, parts and engines imports fell $8.3 billion with passenger cars accounting for much of the decline. The front-loading of imports is probably not over. Higher duties for most countries have been postponed until July, while those for Chinese goods have been delayed until mid-August. The Trump administration had given U.S. trade partners until Wednesday to make their "best offers" to avoid other punishing import levies from taking effect in early July. Exports rose 3.0% to $289.4 billion, an all-time high. Goods exports increased 3.4% to a record $190.5 billion, boosted by a $10.4 billion jump in industrial supplies and materials, mostly finished metal shapes, nonmonetary gold and crude oil. Capital goods exports advanced $1.0 billion, lifted by computers. But exports of motor vehicles, parts and engines fell $3.3 billion, held down by passenger cars as well as trucks, buses and special purpose vehicles. Exports of services increased $2.1 billion to $98.9 billion, lifted by travel, despite reports of decreased tourist visits because of the trade tensions and an immigration crackdown.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Job openings fall more than expected in March, hover near 4-year low
Job openings slid in March to sit near a four-year low as the labor market continued to cool. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.19 million jobs open at the end of March, a decrease from the 7.48 million seen in February. Job openings in March hit their lowest level since September 2024 and were near levels not seen since December 2020. The data comes as investors closely watch for any signs that economic growth may be slowing further. The February figure was revised lower from the 7.57 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.5 million openings in March. "The March JOLTS report showed some cooling of labor-market conditions, but it wasn't weak enough to bring forward our rate-cut expectations as the Federal Reserve will be monitoring the impact of tariffs on inflation," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.4 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.37 million made during February. The hiring rate held flat at 3.4%. Also in Tuesday's report, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved up slightly to 2.1% from 2%. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell to 1.02% in March, a new low since the post-pandemic labor market recovery began. "The hiring rate remains stuck at relatively low levels, which is usually consistent with a higher level of unemployment, but a low pace of layoffs is holding down the unemployment rate for now," Vanden Houten added. Tuesday's data comes as economists and consumers have grown increasingly concerned about the outlook for the US economy amid President Trump's tariff escalation. In a survey released on Tuesday, 32.1% of consumers told the Conference Board they expected jobs to be "hard to get'" in the next six months, up from 28.8% in March. "Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession," Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, said in the release. "In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations." Another wide-ranging update on the state of the labor market is slated for release on Friday morning. The April jobs report is expected to show 133,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Job openings fall more than expected in March, hover near four-year low
Job openings slid in March to sit near a four-year low as the labor market continued to cool. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.19 million jobs open at the end of March, a decrease from the 7.48 million seen in February. Job openings in March hit their lowest level since September 2024 and were near levels not seen since December 2020. The data comes as investors closely watch for any signs that economic growth may be slowing further. The February figure was revised lower from the 7.57 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.5 million openings in March. "The March JOLTS report showed some cooling of labor-market conditions, but it wasn't weak enough to bring forward our rate-cut expectations as the Federal Reserve will be monitoring the impact of tariffs on inflation," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.4 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.37 million made during February. The hiring rate held flat at 3.4%. Also in Tuesday's report, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, move up slightly to 2.1% down from 2%. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell to 1.02% in March, a new low since the post-pandemic labor market recovery began. "The hiring rate remains stuck at relatively low levels, which is usually consistent with a higher level of unemployment, but a low pace of layoffs is holding down the unemployment rate for now," Vanden Houten added. Tuesday's data comes as economists and consumers have grown increasingly concerned about the outlook for the US economy amid President Trump's tariff escalation. In a survey on released on Tuesday, 32.1% of consumers told the Conference Board they expected jobs to be "hard to get'" in the next six months, up from 28.8% in March. "Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession," Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board said in the release. "In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations." Another wide ranging update on the state of the labor market is slated for release on Friday morning. The April jobs report is expected to show 133,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Job openings hit lowest level since September as labor market cools
Job openings hovered near a four-year low in February as the labor market showed continued signs of slow cooling. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.57 million jobs open at the end of February, a decrease from the 7.76 million seen in January. Job openings in February remained near a level last seen in early 2021 and marked the lowest level since last September. The data comes as investors closely watch for any signs that economic growth may be slowing further. The January figure was revised higher from the 7.74 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.66 million openings in February. "The February JOLTS report showed some cooling of labor market conditions but is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its view that the job market is stable enough to withstand an extended period of unchanged interest rates as the central bank monitors progress on inflation," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. As of Tuesday morning, investors were pricing in a roughly 66% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest by the end of its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Read more about the latest economic data releases and today's market action. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.4 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.39 million made during January. The hiring rate held flat at 3.4%. Also in Tuesday's report, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 2%, down from 2.1% the month prior. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows. This could put the labor market in a tough position should layoffs begin to increase, per Invesco chief global market strategist Kristina Hooper. "If we think we're going to see layoffs increase, which I very much anticipate going forward, and we continue to have pretty tepid job growth, that's a problem," Hooper told Yahoo Finance. "And underscores that message that the risk of stagflation, or at least a deceleration in the economy and potential recession, is increasing." February's JOLTS report comes as recent surveys have shown consumers are beginning to sour on the labor market. The most recent survey of consumers from the University of Michigan showed two-thirds of respondents expect the unemployment rate to move up in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Also out on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing employment index fell to 44.7% in February, down from 47.6% in February and at its lowest level since September 2024. Broadly, that sentiment hasn't shown up in economic data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists expect that trend to continue in the March employment report due for release on Friday morning. Consensus expects the report to show the US labor market added 140,000 jobs in the month, down from the 151,000 seen in February. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
USA Today
20-02-2025
- Business
- USA Today
Mortgage rates fall to a two-month low, but buyers are still on the sidelines
Mortgage rates fall to a two-month low, but buyers are still on the sidelines Show Caption Hide Caption BBB warns of stimulus check text message scam The IRS is issuing $1,400 tax rebate checks to eligible taxpayers, but scammers are sending fake texts pretending to be the IRS. Fox - Fox 29 Rates for home loans fell for the fifth straight week, but buyers aren't feeling the love just yet. In the week ending Feb. 20, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.85%, Freddie Mac announced Thursday. That puts the popular mortgage product at exactly the level at which it closed 2024. Those figures don't include fees or points, and rates in some parts of the country may be higher or lower than the national average. Last week, the 30-year-fixed averaged 6.87%. Even as mortgage rates continue to tick gradually lower, it hasn't provided any relief for a challenging housing market. Homebuilders broke ground on fewer homes in January, the government said Wednesday, meaning there won't be a big influx of new homes for Americans to buy any time soon. Residential construction will be suppressed in 2025 'by elevated mortgage rates and an erosion in homebuilder sentiment due to higher input costs resulting from tariffs and possibly labor shortages resulting from President Trump's immigration policies,' wrote Nancy Vanden Houten, an economist at Oxford Economics, in an analysis out Wednesday. Builder sentiment tumbled to a five-month low in February, the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday. More: Why is housing so expensive? There simply aren't enough homes. Tight conditions are squeezing buyers across the country. In Westchester County, New York, real estate agent Pamela Grunstein is navigating a market that has 1.6 months of supply – a far cry from the 6 months or so that's long been considered the sign of an evenly balanced market. Just like at the height of the pandemic, buyers are waiving contingencies and bidding properties sharply higher. But, said Grunstein, who works with the Francie Malina Team at Compass, 'It's actually gotten worse because the prices are higher. And it's trickier because of the higher interest rates.' Many would-be buyers may be opting to stay on the sidelines. Mortgage applications to purchase a home – not refinances – were down 6% in the most recent week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
