13 hours ago
This electoral weapon could keep Nigel Farage out of Downing Street
Our democracy is in a mess. We don't need a think tank to tell us this because we can see it with our own eyes. But in its annual survey published today, the National Centre for Social Research has confirmed that this gnawing sense of a system that is no longer working has become deeply ingrained in the national psyche.
Its most obvious manifestation is a surge in support for Reform UK, which is now running well ahead of Labour and the Tories. There is already talk of Nigel Farage becoming the next prime minister, though with another election four years away, a good deal can happen in that time to scupper his chances. Reform would need to win 326 seats in the Commons from their present base of five MPs. That seems highly unlikely, but is no longer inconceivable.
What the 2024 election showed is that its possible to achieve a substantial majority with the support of just one third of the voters, which is roughly where the polls put Reform. Last July, Labour won with 33.7 per cent; Reform are currently on 34 per cent, though without a strong base that does not necessarily translate into a majority.
Since the turnout last year was only 60 per cent, the Government had the support of around one in five of those eligible to vote. It was the lowest share ever won by a party with a parliamentary majority. In addition, the Tories recorded their worst result. Fewer than three in five of all votes were cast for either Labour or the Conservatives, the lowest proportion since, and including, 1922.
Moreover, Labour won just 1.6 per cent more of the vote than it did in 2019, when it lost comprehensively, yet this time won 411 seats – 63 per cent of all MPs – and a majority of 174. That worked out at 23,000 votes per seat, whereas Reform needed 850,000 for each of its MPs.
For obvious reasons, Mr Farage used to be an ardent supporter of proportional representation (PR) since his party was being woefully disadvantaged. Had the last election been run under the system of PR that operates in Scotland for the Holyrood parliament, then Labour would have had 228 seats and Reform 100.
But there comes a point where first past the post (FPTP) suddenly becomes Mr Farage's friend and PR no longer seems the pressing moral crusade it once was. If at the next election Reform won one third or more of the votes, with support elsewhere split three or four ways, then they can do what Labour did.
As more and more voters become disillusioned with Labour – and remain so with the Tories – then FPTP becomes ever more attractive to Mr Farage. At around 34 per cent of the vote, he reaches an inflection point where Reform can itself disproportionately pile up the seats.
Not since the 1950s has a party won office with around 50 per cent of the vote. Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair both won large majorities with around 43 per cent, but on bigger turnouts than we are now seeing, which provided legitimacy.
The social attitudes survey suggests the turnout has fallen precisely because voters are fed up with the way their wishes are ignored and have lost confidence in parties to do what they promise. In 1987, almost half of voters said they trusted the government to place the needs of the country above the interests of their party. In the recent survey, that had fallen to 12 per cent, an astonishing collapse. Again, in 1987 30 per cent of voters wanted to change the voting system – now 60 per cent do.
Unsurprisingly, perhaps, support for PR has surged among Tory supporters and fallen, though only marginally, among Labour voters. The Lib Dems, funnily enough, have also stopped talking about PR after winning 72 seats, which roughly reflected the support they received.
But is PR really the answer? We have been here before, after all. At the 1983 general election, the SDP/Liberal Alliance secured 24 per cent of the vote and won only 23 seats. Labour notched up just 27 per cent yet bagged 209 MPs. If ever there was an argument for proportional representation along continental lines, there it was. Yet it has never been adopted even, if it is periodically flirted with.
Before the 1997 election Blair led Paddy Ashdown a merry dance by hinting at his support for PR. When he won a majority of 170, his enthusiasm evaporated. The Tory failure to win outright in 2010 meant a coalition deal with the Lib Dems, the price of which was a now-forgotten referendum on voting reform.
When it was held in 2011, few wanted the alternative vote (AV) that was on offer. AV is not true PR and the country could not get excited at the prospect, with 68 per cent opposed to a change on a 42 per cent turnout; but the idea never went away.
In 2022, fearing they were never going to win outright again, the Labour conference voted for PR in what supporters called 'a seismic shift towards a fair voting system'. However, Sir Keir Starmer shot it down and has subsequently reaped the rewards of sticking with FPTP. Reform voters still overwhelmingly support PR, though that might change when they realise they could win under the current system, while 90 per cent of Greens – who would have 70 seats under PR rather than four – want change.
FPTP usually produces strong government able to get things done, though the system does not need PR to produce a coalition, just the failure of one party to win a majority, as in 2010. The trouble with PR is that the need to keep disparate coalition partners on board leads to solemn election pledges being abandoned.
It can also give disproportionate influence to small parties, as happened when the DUP held the balance of power after the 2017 election. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is in thrall to extremist settler parties without whose support his government would collapse.
Between 2010 and 2015, the Lib Dems comprised half the so-called 'Quad' that ran the administration. They wielded 50 per cent of the power with nine per cent of the seats, though a fat lot of good it did them at the following election.
The social attitudes report suggests disenchantment is such that public opinion is now more inclined towards favouring a coalition over single party rule than at any time for 40 years. Judging by the polls, they will probably get their wish after the next election, though how it will be made up is anyone's guess.
