Latest news with #NationalElectricityMarket
The Advertiser
04-06-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Waratah Super Battery charging ahead despite collapse of parts supplier
The company behind the $1.1 billion Waratah Super Battery at Munmorah says it is confident there will be no ramifications from the pending collapse of the project's US parts supplier. Powin advised regulatory authorities in the state of Oregon last week that it would be forced to shut down by July 28 or earlier due to poor economic conditions. It is believed the company, which is reliant on Chinese components for its battery packs, has been affected by the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese goods. In addition to the Waratah Super Battery, Powin is supplying Akaysha's 150 MW and 300 MWh Ulinda Park battery that is under construction in Queensland. Construction of the 850MW (1680MWh) Waratah Super Battery, Australia's most powerful battery, was finished on schedule in October 2024. It was energised and registered with the National Electricity Market late last year. Testing and commissioning are ongoing. The battery's owner, Akaysha, said it recently became aware of financial difficulties at Powin. It said an unspecified contingency plan was in place to ensure minimal delivery disruption and sustained project momentum. "Akaysha Energy, as a leading global developer and operator of large-scale battery energy storage systems, has long had a robust and forward-looking supply chain strategy in place. This includes proactive risk management measures designed to navigate challenges across our supply chain," an Akaysha spokeswoman said. "Our priority remains the uninterrupted and successful progression of these projects through to operations as planned." A spokesman for the state government's energy corporation, EnergyCo, said the project was progressing as planned. "With 100 per cent of battery packs installed, the battery energy storage systems (BESS) portion of the project is progressing through hold point testing in the lead-up to the start of its operation," he said. "This process is being overseen by Akaysha, Transgrid and the Australian Energy Market Operator." The project is critical for NSW's energy security, as the state's coal-fired power stations close. It is designed to enhance grid reliability in the state by acting as a shock absorber in the event of sudden power surges from events such as lightning strikes. The broader project includes upgrades to the state's existing transmission network and the development of an overarching control system. "This is a huge step forward for the Waratah Super Battery project and our state's transition to secure, reliable grid powered by renewables and storage," director of power systems at EnergyCo, Lulu Shao, said last year. "Registering on the National Electricity Market is no easy feat, especially for the largest single dispatchable unit on the market and one of the largest grid-scale batteries in the world." "This milestone is a testament to the hard work and collaboration of Akaysha and Transgrid and their delivery partners." The company behind the $1.1 billion Waratah Super Battery at Munmorah says it is confident there will be no ramifications from the pending collapse of the project's US parts supplier. Powin advised regulatory authorities in the state of Oregon last week that it would be forced to shut down by July 28 or earlier due to poor economic conditions. It is believed the company, which is reliant on Chinese components for its battery packs, has been affected by the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese goods. In addition to the Waratah Super Battery, Powin is supplying Akaysha's 150 MW and 300 MWh Ulinda Park battery that is under construction in Queensland. Construction of the 850MW (1680MWh) Waratah Super Battery, Australia's most powerful battery, was finished on schedule in October 2024. It was energised and registered with the National Electricity Market late last year. Testing and commissioning are ongoing. The battery's owner, Akaysha, said it recently became aware of financial difficulties at Powin. It said an unspecified contingency plan was in place to ensure minimal delivery disruption and sustained project momentum. "Akaysha Energy, as a leading global developer and operator of large-scale battery energy storage systems, has long had a robust and forward-looking supply chain strategy in place. This includes proactive risk management measures designed to navigate challenges across our supply chain," an Akaysha spokeswoman said. "Our priority remains the uninterrupted and successful progression of these projects through to operations as planned." A spokesman for the state government's energy corporation, EnergyCo, said the project was progressing as planned. "With 100 per cent of battery packs installed, the battery energy storage systems (BESS) portion of the project is progressing through hold point testing in the lead-up to the start of its operation," he said. "This process is being overseen by Akaysha, Transgrid and the Australian Energy Market Operator." The project is critical for NSW's energy security, as the state's coal-fired power stations close. It is designed to enhance grid reliability in the state by acting as a shock absorber in the event of sudden power surges from events such as lightning strikes. The broader project includes upgrades to the state's existing transmission network and the development of an overarching control system. "This is a huge step forward for the Waratah Super Battery project and our state's transition to secure, reliable grid powered by renewables and storage," director of power systems at EnergyCo, Lulu Shao, said last year. "Registering on the National Electricity Market is no easy feat, especially for the largest single dispatchable unit on the market and one of the largest grid-scale batteries in the world." "This milestone is a testament to the hard work and collaboration of Akaysha and Transgrid and their delivery partners." The company behind the $1.1 billion Waratah Super Battery at Munmorah says it is confident there will be no ramifications from the pending collapse of the project's US parts supplier. Powin advised regulatory authorities in the state of Oregon last week that it would be forced to shut down by July 28 or earlier due to poor economic conditions. It is believed the company, which is reliant on Chinese components for its battery packs, has been affected by the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese goods. In addition to the Waratah Super Battery, Powin is supplying Akaysha's 150 MW and 300 MWh Ulinda Park battery that is under construction in Queensland. Construction of the 850MW (1680MWh) Waratah Super Battery, Australia's most powerful battery, was finished on schedule in October 2024. It was energised and registered with the National Electricity Market late last year. Testing and commissioning are ongoing. The battery's owner, Akaysha, said it recently became aware of financial difficulties at Powin. It said an unspecified contingency plan was in place to ensure minimal delivery disruption and sustained project momentum. "Akaysha Energy, as a leading global developer and operator of large-scale battery energy storage systems, has long had a robust and forward-looking supply chain strategy in place. This includes proactive risk management measures designed to navigate challenges across our supply chain," an Akaysha spokeswoman said. "Our priority remains the uninterrupted and successful progression of these projects through to operations as planned." A spokesman for the state government's energy corporation, EnergyCo, said the project was progressing as planned. "With 100 per cent of battery packs installed, the battery energy storage systems (BESS) portion of the project is progressing through hold point testing in the lead-up to the start of its operation," he said. "This process is being overseen by Akaysha, Transgrid and the Australian Energy Market Operator." The project is critical for NSW's energy security, as the state's coal-fired power stations close. It is designed to enhance grid reliability in the state by acting as a shock absorber in the event of sudden power surges from events such as lightning strikes. The broader project includes upgrades to the state's existing transmission network and the development of an overarching control system. "This is a huge step forward for the Waratah Super Battery project and our state's transition to secure, reliable grid powered by renewables and storage," director of power systems at EnergyCo, Lulu Shao, said last year. "Registering on the National Electricity Market is no easy feat, especially for the largest single dispatchable unit on the market and one of the largest grid-scale batteries in the world." "This milestone is a testament to the hard work and collaboration of Akaysha and Transgrid and their delivery partners." The company behind the $1.1 billion Waratah Super Battery at Munmorah says it is confident there will be no ramifications from the pending collapse of the project's US parts supplier. Powin advised regulatory authorities in the state of Oregon last week that it would be forced to shut down by July 28 or earlier due to poor economic conditions. It is believed the company, which is reliant on Chinese components for its battery packs, has been affected by the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese goods. In addition to the Waratah Super Battery, Powin is supplying Akaysha's 150 MW and 300 MWh Ulinda Park battery that is under construction in Queensland. Construction of the 850MW (1680MWh) Waratah Super Battery, Australia's most powerful battery, was finished on schedule in October 2024. It was energised and registered with the National Electricity Market late last year. Testing and commissioning are ongoing. The battery's owner, Akaysha, said it recently became aware of financial difficulties at Powin. It said an unspecified contingency plan was in place to ensure minimal delivery disruption and sustained project momentum. "Akaysha Energy, as a leading global developer and operator of large-scale battery energy storage systems, has long had a robust and forward-looking supply chain strategy in place. This includes proactive risk management measures designed to navigate challenges across our supply chain," an Akaysha spokeswoman said. "Our priority remains the uninterrupted and successful progression of these projects through to operations as planned." A spokesman for the state government's energy corporation, EnergyCo, said the project was progressing as planned. "With 100 per cent of battery packs installed, the battery energy storage systems (BESS) portion of the project is progressing through hold point testing in the lead-up to the start of its operation," he said. "This process is being overseen by Akaysha, Transgrid and the Australian Energy Market Operator." The project is critical for NSW's energy security, as the state's coal-fired power stations close. It is designed to enhance grid reliability in the state by acting as a shock absorber in the event of sudden power surges from events such as lightning strikes. The broader project includes upgrades to the state's existing transmission network and the development of an overarching control system. "This is a huge step forward for the Waratah Super Battery project and our state's transition to secure, reliable grid powered by renewables and storage," director of power systems at EnergyCo, Lulu Shao, said last year. "Registering on the National Electricity Market is no easy feat, especially for the largest single dispatchable unit on the market and one of the largest grid-scale batteries in the world." "This milestone is a testament to the hard work and collaboration of Akaysha and Transgrid and their delivery partners."
Sky News AU
25-05-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Australia set to be fully cashless in 30 years as the country is slowly squeezed by fewer ATMs, higher fees and ‘convenient' alternatives
If current trends hold, just a few decades from now, Australia is set to become a country where physical money becomes a relic, an object more likely to be found in a museum than your wallet. And yet, barely anyone is sounding the alarm. This isn't mindless paranoia. Across the ditch, New Zealanders are already struggling to withdraw cash. ATMs are vanishing. Cash transactions are being phased out quietly, without a boot stamping down — just the slow squeeze of fewer machines, higher fees, and 'convenient' alternatives. The genius of the strategy is that it doesn't feel like coercion. It feels like progress. Progress draped in convenience and contactless transactions. They don't need to ban cash outright. They just need to make it a hassle, and they are. But cash is more than a payment method. It's freedom. It's privacy. It's a last line of defense when systems fail. It is also—crucially—offline. And that might be the most important trait of all. Because systems will fail. Australia's energy grid is already straining under the weight of contradictory mandates. On one hand, we're being told to go green. Switch to EVs. Electrify everything. On the other hand, we're told the grid will cope. Really? When power prices are skyrocketing, coal plants are being shut down, and summer blackouts are becoming normal in places like Adelaide and Melbourne? The National Electricity Market (NEM) has had multiple near-collapse incidents in recent years, and yet we're piling on even more demand. More data centers. More electric cars. More 'smart' cities. And now, more digital payment infrastructure—all of it dependent on a fragile supply of electrons humming through brittle wires. What happens when the juice runs out? Remember the 2024 global IT outage? Banks froze, payment apps glitched, and card readers crashed. What happened next? Businesses shut their doors, supermarkets turned customers away, and public transport systems stalled. Without electricity or the internet, digital money became useless. That was a warning shot. And the scariest part? No one had a backup. Everyone just stood there, waiting, like children locked out of the house with no key. Now fast forward. Picture the same scenario in a world where no one carries cash. Not one dollar in your pocket. No change in the glove box. No envelope under the bed. Just a dead card and a useless phone. That's not science fiction. That's the logical conclusion of our current trajectory. In a future packed with EVs, smart homes, AI-powered logistics, and real-time analytics for everything from groceries to garbage pickup, outages will be more frequent, not less. Cyberattacks. System overload. Biblical-like floods. Regulatory mishaps. Even solar flares. It won't take much to break the chain. And when it breaks, it breaks everything. Still feel safe going cashless? Now, imagine that future with every transaction tied to a digital ID, every purchase monitored, and every payment decision run through an invisible scoring matrix. Welcome to the birth of the financial panopticon. Social credit logic will be baked in, even if no one calls it that. Deny a mandatory system update? Lose access to your account. Say something flagged as 'unhelpful' on social media? Get throttled. Accused—not convicted—of some civic violation? Wallet suspended pending review. And if you don't think this can happen in a liberal democracy, you haven't been paying attention. Canada froze the bank accounts of protesting truckers. The EU has discussed programmable CBDCs. China's system already exists. We are being lulled into a digital cage. Not through force. Through design. Because the fewer the ATMs, the easier it is to make cash inconvenient. And the more inconvenient it becomes, the more we stop using it—until one day, we won't even remember how. And when the grid goes down or a cyberattack hits—or you simply get flagged as 'problematic'—you'll find yourself standing in line not for bread but for access. Hoping your biometric scan works. Hoping you didn't post the wrong thing last week. Hoping the algorithm hasn't mislabelled you. Hoping the lights stay on. Australians, pay attention. Australia now ranks as the 13th most difficult place in the world to access cash and is set to go cashless in 30 years, according to a new report from UK-based payments analyst Merchant Machine . Banks are closing physical branches at record speed. Major events are now cashless by default. Try paying with paper at a stadium or concert, and you'll be treated like an alien species. And that's exactly how it's meant to feel. Foreign. Suspicious. Entirely alien. They want you uncomfortable with cash. They want your kids to grow up thinking it's dirty, slow, and dangerous. That's not a conspiracy theory. That's the actual language being used in boardrooms and central bank papers. And they're winning. The erosion isn't dramatic. It's slow. Bureaucratic. Boring, even. But the endgame is not. Because this isn't just about money. It's about dependency. About obedience. About making sure that when the system says 'jump', you don't even ask why—you just tap. Cash is messy. Cash is anonymous. Cash is inconvenient. But that's precisely why we need it. Keep some. Use it often. And tell your kids what it's for. Because if we let it vanish, we won't be living in a free country anymore. We'll be living in a monitored one. And by then, it'll be too late. John Mac Ghlionn is a researcher and essayist who writes on psychology and social relations. He has a keen interest in social dysfunction and media manipulation.
ABC News
02-05-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Does more gas supply mean cheaper power bills for Australians? Here's what we know
Australia's two major political parties have promised that they would do more about gas prices in a bid to reduce the cost of living if elected. To understand the hot topic of energy, Australians need to understand how the gas market operates. So, what sets the gas price, and how could the federal government intervene in the trading market? Let's break it down. Does more gas supply mean cheaper power bills? This is not a simple question to answer, said Eric Lilford, an associate professor from the Minerals, Energy and Chemical Engineering School at Curtin University. "In summary, more gas produced domestically will not bring gas prices down, unless there is a regulatory capture of that additional gas that guarantees increased volumetric flows into the domestic market," he told the ABC. "Note that gas producers are not philanthropic organisations, and are driven by profits. "They need to appease shareholders and accommodate other stakeholders." Samantha Hepburn, a director of research who specialises in energy regulation and policy at Deakin University, said it was pointless to bring more gas into the market "in the absence of strong export controls". "The main reason for gas price hikes is that surplus domestic uncontracted gas is being sold on the international market, and domestic consumers must compete with international prices," she said. What are Australian gas markets? The gas market in Australia is made up of three distinct regions — the eastern gas region, the western gas region and the northern gas region. Liquified natural gas plant and LNG ship on Curtis Island, Queensland ( Supplied: Photopia Studio ) An interconnected gas grid connects all of Australia's eastern and southern states and territories — Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. The gas basins that supply this market contain around one-third of Australia's gas reserves. While traditionally focused on domestic sales, this market has undergone structural change as the Queensland gas export industry has developed. Western gas region Infrastructure at a gas plant in Western Australia. ( ABC News: Daniel Mercer ) The gas basins of the western gas market contain over half of Australia's gas reserves. This market is heavily focused on exports but also supplies domestic consumption in Western Australia. Northern gas region Territory Generation's Channel Island Power Station at Wickham NT. ( Supplied: Territory Generation ) The northern gas market is Australia's smallest producer. Its basins provide gas for export and also for domestic consumption in the Northern Territory. Meanwhile, Australia's two wholesale electricity markets are operated by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO): the National Electricity Market (NEM), which operates in eastern and south-eastern Australia, and the National Electricity Market (NEM), which operates in eastern and south-eastern Australia, and the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), which operates in Western Australia. The NEM runs on one of the world's longest interconnected power systems, delivering power to over 23 million Australians. Is gas the main fuel to generate electricity? No, it is not. In the NEM, which delivers about 80 per cent of Australia's electricity consumption, 41 per cent of the generation supply was black coal as of December 2024, while gas only contributed 5.3 per cent. Why does Australia have abundant gas reserves but is facing gas shortages? Australian gas is a business, Dr Lilford said. "Decisions drive profits," he told the ABC. "The producers preferentially sell into offshore markets due to the [higher] margins they can make vis-a-vis domestic sales. "Hence, most production is sold into offshore markets." About 80 per cent of Australia's gas is exported as liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to the Australia Institute. In 2024, the International Energy Agency reported that Australia was the world's second-largest gas exporter, following the United States. Want even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 federal election coverage Catch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on ABC iview and ABC Listen What sets gas pricing in the Australian market? Gas prices in Australia, especially on the east coast market, are heavily impacted by global market trends. "Since gas producers have the option to sell into international markets via LNG export terminals, domestic prices often reflect international LNG prices," Dr Lilford said. "As a result, east coast gas prices are closely linked to, and can be driven by, fluctuations in global LNG markets." Gas prices in Australia, especially on the east coast market, are heavily impacted by global market trends. ( ABC News: Danielle Bonica ) Ms Hepburn added that east coast wholesale gas prices were determined by supply, demand, the cost of production and regulation. "It is important to distinguish between contract and wholesale markets," she said. "On the east coast, only a small share of gas is traded because most goes to fulfil long-term contracts. "Contracts for domestic purchasers usually incorporate a premium over wholesale spot prices due to [the] certainty and longevity of supply." She said prices were negotiated and would be subject to regulation. "Domestic wholesale prices on the east coast, for instance, purchases without a contract, are often high because the three Queensland LNG projects have linked domestic prices for this surplus gas to international [prices]." The three LNG plants on Curtis Island are owned by QGC Pty Ltd, Santos GLNG, and Australia Pacific LNG, exporting roughly 5 per cent of the world's LNG when fully operational. What could governments do to bring gas prices down? Dr Lilford said it would be challenging for any government to dictate how a commercial business runs. "Trade (gas) is set through supply and demand fundamentals, unless a government dictates that the product being the subject of supply and demand is 'strategic,'" he said, "Gas is not defined as being 'strategic', so market forces play. "However, governments can provide subsidies, concessions, offsets, tax (or royalty) breaks, that will incentivise producers to supply this product into the local market. He added that there was also a sizeable cost associated with the liquefaction and transport aspects of gas. "If a local producer can obviate those costs and still recognise an adequate return on investment, the local market will be economically attractive." Are there controls over gas exporters? "There is no direct export control on the east coast [market]," Ms Hepburn said. "In the west coast market, there is a reservation mandate of 15 per cent. The only regulatory measure on the east coast is the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM). "It is a measure of last resort and must be triggered by November of the previous year, where a shortfall is forecast. "If so, the ADGSM can require LNG projects to limit exports," she added, "To date, the ADGSM has never been triggered." No direct gas export restriction is in place on Australia's east coast market, according to experts. ( ABC Kimberley: Ben Collins ) In 2022, the federal government implemented an emergency price cap — $12 per gigajoule for domestic purchasers. This ended in December 2023, and the federal government replaced it with the Gas Market Code for the wholesale domestic market. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is set to review the price code this year. Is there a cheaper way to generate electricity than gas? Yes, there is. However, Dr Lilford said Australia needed to "look beyond cheaper" to the core of sustainability, reliability and efficiency. "We need a mix of energy solutions, since no-one energy system will provide everything we need," he said. "We don't have that yet, and we are not heading in the direction to achieve that either, even looking out to 2050. "We should be addressing long-term paradigms to support affordable sustainability, not short-term promises to secure votes." Loading Having trouble seeing this form? Try this link.
ABC News
26-04-2025
- Business
- ABC News
The six things you should know about gas and if it can make power cheaper
Gas has been making lots of headlines throughout this election campaign and both major parties agree it's an important part of our energy system. The Coalition has made it the centrepiece of its plan to bring down electricity prices, promising more gas, making it cheaper, and keeping more of it in the country. As we enter the final week of this election campaign, there are a few things to know about the role of gas in Australia. We will step through how much we actually use, how it plays into our power bills, and what role it plays in the energy system of the future. What do we actually use gas for? In Australia, gas is used both directly in households for cooking, hot water and heating, as well as generating electricity that then powers homes and businesses. Some 3 million Australian households are still connected to gas. In Victoria, it's 90 per cent of homes, although that figure is dropping (more on that later). Gas is also used in businesses and by large industrial manufacturers. Gas currently plays an important role in the electricity mix in Australia because it can turn on at short notice and quickly provide power to the grid. Despite this critical role, gas only makes up 6 per cent of the overall electricity mix in the National Electricity Market. Increasingly, batteries are taking that role in the grid, and Even in a renewables-dominated grid, gas is forecast to play a small but ongoing role for decades to come. Australia has lots of gas You might have heard of a looming "gas crunch" in Australia, but there's more to unpack. The gas fields off the coast of Victoria that traditionally supplied the southern states are running out, and there have been warnings of a looming gas crisis in recent years, prompting both sides of politics to tussle with this issue. We have plenty of gas, it's just that we send most of it overseas. This gas is mostly produced in northern Australia, adding the challenge of how to transport it to the south where supplies are dwindling. In 2021, Australia was the world's largest exporter of LNG (gas that has been condensed to move around by ship), and 75 per cent of the gas produced in Australia was exported. That's where a domestic gas reservation policy comes into play. The Coalition is proposing to keep in Australia some of the gas that would be sent overseas, but as yet hasn't been sold in long-term contracts. "This will secure an additional 10 to 20 per cent of the east coast's demand — gas which would otherwise be exported," Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said. "Gas sold on the domestic market will be decoupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks." As part of it, the Coalition is also supporting new gas projects, but there isn't a lot of detail about how these policies would work. While many energy experts support a reservation policy in theory, they have questioned whether the plan will deliver on lower power prices, or how quickly any new gas projects could come online. But it would be almost impossible to bring gas prices down to make them cheaper than renewables, which the CSIRO and other researchers have found to be the cheapest form of electricity. Gas is expensive in Australia Australia used to have cheap gas, but gas prices have more than tripled since Australian gas started being exported overseas. Then, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a boycott of Russian gas, which sent gas prices spiking even further. Gas often 'sets the price' When it comes to gas-fired electricity, gas isn't used much overall in the National Electricity Market (which doesn't include the Northern Territory or Western Australia). In fact, it's being used less than it was a few years ago. It usually comes online at peak times when demand is high, especially in the evening when the sun goes down, solar power fades just as people arrive home from work. Throughout the day, the wholesale cost of electricity changes depending on how much power is being used and what's providing that power. Every energy provider sells their power in the market at different prices to cover their costs. Gas generators usually sell their power at a higher price than renewables for a couple of reasons: they often come online for a short time and have to cover the cost of the gas that's being burnt. But here's the catch: every power generator selling electricity to the grid at that time is paid at the rate of the most expensive generator, so everyone will get paid the gas price. That is what's meant by "setting the price". This has resulted in gas pushing up the wholesale power prices in recent years. Wholesale prices aren't the same as the price you pay for electricity on your bill, but it is a significant factor. The Clean Investors Industry Group, which represents renewables investors, recently crunched the numbers on Australia's electricity prices and found that without any renewables, prices would have been between 8 and 22 per cent higher last year. How much gas do we use in Australia? The chart below looks at all the different areas where gas is used in Australia. As you can see, the largest chunk of Australian gas is sold overseas. The LNG industry — that is, the gas export industry — is the largest single user of Australian gas, burning gas to compress and process more gas to send overseas. Outside of the LNG industry, The agency that oversees the energy market, AEMO, said the reduction is because of high gas prices, as well as more households moving to electric appliances and cutting their gas use. Large industrial manufacturers have been hit hard by the high gas prices, and some have been forced to close, again reducing the demand for gas. In the electricity sector, although gas is expected to still play a role in the decades to come, big batteries will increasingly push down gas use by dispatching their power at those key moments in the evening when people are using lots of power. Energy market analyst BloombergNEF recently predicted that Australia is on the cusp of a big battery boom and they could increase eightfold, so this will undoubtedly change the role of gas in the future. Gas is a fossil fuel driving climate change All of this talk about gas in the current Australian election doesn't change this critical fact: gas is one of the fossil fuels driving climate change, causing hotter global temperatures and more extreme weather. For a long time, gas was touted as a "cleaner" option than coal, and therefore a useful "transition" fuel on the journey to a green grid. But a groundbreaking study conducted in the United States last year found that American LNG was worse than coal when it came to emissions. Photo shows Pipelines leading the LNG terminal and the LNG tanker For years, the mantra from the industry has been that gas is a bridge between coal and renewable energy. A landmark study has sensationally challenged that idea. The peer-reviewed study by Robert Howarth, a professor at Cornell University, found that greenhouse gas emissions from LNG were 33 per cent greater than those related to coal over 20 years. And while Australia's LNG industry maintains its emissions are far lower than US counterparts largely due to different extraction methods, gas is responsible for high levels of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over a short timeframe. "As a greenhouse gas, methane is more than 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide when considered over a 20‐year period and so even small methane emissions can have a large climate impact." According to the study, methane leaked into the atmosphere at every point along the chain of gas production. To reach our climate goals, and to stop catastrophic warming, fossil fuel use needs to go down.
ABC News
25-04-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Can renewables and nuclear play nice in Australia's power grid of tomorrow
Does our evolving power grid have room for nuclear energy? The end of coal and rise of renewables is shaping tomorrow's power grid today. It poses challenges for nuclear power. Turning on the lights is something we do without thinking, but have you ever thought about what makes it possible? With the press of a finger, we interact with 'Australia's largest machine' — the National Electricity Market (NEM), which spans 5,000 kilometres north to south along the continent's eastern seaboard and supplies just the right amount of electricity through almost 800,000 kilometres of power lines. You might not have thought about it, but understanding how it works will help you understand the implications of the policies Australians are voting for at this election. Sounds complicated? Don't worry, we're here to step you through how it works, what it could look like in the future, and what plans by the Coalition for nuclear energy in Australia mean for the transition. You'll never look at a power bill the same way again. To help us make sense of it all, we've turned to one of Australia's leading energy experts — Dylan McConnell from the University of New South Wales. Dr McConnell says the changes in Australia's energy mix over the past two-and-a-half decades have been profound, and we're further along the transition to the system of tomorrow than people might expect. "We're very much on the path towards a renewables dominated system firmed (backed up) by storage and a little bit of peaking gas." To understand power prices, you have to start at the beginning. Where do energy prices come from? Let's look at the economics, starting with demand. Over a typical 24 hours, demand for energy builds through the day and continues into the late afternoon or evening as people come home from school or work and start using appliances like TVs, lights and air conditioners. An important distinction needs to be made here. There is the overall demand for electricity in any given day and then there is the demand excluding rooftop solar, which can be a very significant source of supply indeed. But more on that later. Energy generation follows our activity. Now let's look at how demand is met. Meet AEMO, the Australian Energy Market Operator. AEMO's job is to manage the grid and ensure we have enough energy — not too little, and not too much. AEMO's job is to keep the lights on, so to speak. AEMO is like a conductor, orchestrating the sale of power from generators — via the poles-and-wires networks — to retailers, who ultimately sell it to homes and businesses. Often, generators and retailers will be one and the same business. AEMO monitors supply and demand. This is the energy "grid" or "market". Australia has two main grids: the NEM covering most of the population, and the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), which is Western Australia's biggest. The NEM and WEM run like proper markets. Power stations set their prices competitively to sell energy to customers (energy retailers). AEMO runs the market and will make sure there's enough energy available to meet demand. Logically, we aim to buy the cheapest energy first. In this example, say it's coal. Price setting in the grid Conceptually, AEMO will progressively call on more expensive sources of energy once the cheapest supply is exhausted. Importantly, the market price for energy is set by the most expensive plant needed at a given time and this price is paid to all subsequent generators. Gas is often the 'price setter'. Like in any market, how generators decide to set their prices is based on a variety of factors. For example, if there's a lot of sun available, a solar farm can offer to sell its supply for less. The electricity market at work. If your plant's operating costs are high, that limits how low you can afford to drop your prices. Or if all other competing plants are sold out (like during evening peak demand), you can charge a premium. Solar and wind are the cheapest forms of power because they have free fuel. They can outcompete everything else when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. Typically, gas is the most expensive form of generation, and its rate often sets the price of electricity at peak times. Its flexibility as a source of supply means gas can remain offline much of the time and come on only when needed. Prices by energy source Sources like batteries and pumped hydropower (which functions like batteries) act like gas, with the added benefit that they can soak up cheap renewable energy during the day and release it in the evening when needed. But the grid used to be much simpler — it was virtually all coal. Renewables enter the picture If we take a look at the NEM (the grid covering most of Australia's population), we can trace back its evolution over time. Our energy mix is evolving Much of this change has taken place thanks to policies aimed at making renewable energy cheaper and more competitive. But Australia has never had a ban on new coal-fired power stations, most of which were built decades ago. Those plants weren't designed to last forever. Like any piece of machinery, we eventually need to replace them. And, according to many industry analysts, renewable energy sources these days are the cheapest way of doing it. But while they may be the cheapest, they operate in a very different way to coal-fired power. The shape of supply Let's look at an average day's energy mix in New South Wales as an example. NSW's daily energy mix You can see that solar and coal are the two biggest contributors — solar during daylight hours and coal running 24/7, making up the largest share of the mix. Wind, hydro and gas, along with any imports from other parts of Australia make up the rest of the supply. But what you notice is that as solar falls away in the afternoon, there's a big spike in afternoon demand for power from the grid. And that's because most rooftop solar doesn't come from the grid. Rather, householders generate it themselves. To show you in a bit more detail, let's look at a week in March. NSW 7-day energy mix We've split up each type of power so it's easier to compare them and see how they act differently. Coal is an example of a source that runs 24/7. It can ramp up and down but can't easily switch off. It's often referred to as base-load generation because it was designed to run around the clock to meet the base load of our electricity needs. Coal generation over 7 days in NSW. Solar and wind generation vary day to day. Some days can offer surpluses of energy while others see low outputs. Solar and wind generation over 7 days in NSW. To fill in the gaps, sources like hydro, gas and batteries step in. These sources can fire up and down very quickly and are useful for peak demand periods. Hydro, gas and battery generation over 7 days in NSW. Additionally, energy imported from out of state can also be part of the mix. This is one advantage of having an interconnected grid like the NEM. Energy imports over 7 days in NSW. In the evening when the sun has set and demand for electricity from the grid is highest, this dispatchable, fast flexible energy comes online. Evening demand in NSW. During the day, as solar supply increases, demand for coal decreases because solar costs much less. Supply and demand in action. In the middle of the day, demand for coal is low. Dr McConnell says solar and wind are radically changing the way other generators have to behave. "We basically see, in the middle of the day in particular, coal plants across the NEM, brown coal and black coal, being squeezed out by renewable energy," he says. "We're seeing coal plants' overall utilisation essentially decline, but the shape of that utilisation changing dramatically. It is behaving much more like a flexible peaking plant almost." Tensions between renewables and base-load generation You've probably heard we're at the point where sometimes we have too much renewable energy. But that's not quite right. What we have at times is more renewable than can be accommodated by coal-fired plants. Particularly in bumper periods like spring and autumn where mild temperatures reduce energy demand, we actually have to curtail — or turn off — solar and wind production to keep coal plants running. You see, base-load generation needs to avoid shutting down because of both mechanical limitations and operating costs. Like riding a bike, it can only slow down to a minimum speed before it becomes unsafe to operate. And the grid still needs the stability and security services those base-load plants provide. Solar is being 'wasted' to make room for coal. When solar is consistently the cheapest form of generation, it creates this awkward scenario where we have to switch off large-scale solar farms to figuratively keep the lights on for coal — effectively paying more than we need to for energy during those times. Dr McConnell says this "curtailment" of renewable energy is a growing feature of Australia's electricity system. It is sometimes caused by physical limitations on the poles-and-wires networks — like a freeway at peak hour, there just isn't enough capacity to handle anymore electricity. But it's also being driven by economics. Renewable energy is pushing wholesale prices to such low, or even negative levels, it makes doesn't make sense for wind and solar farms to keep producing at times. "(Curtailment) basically just represents an amount of generation that is theoretically possible to be generated but isn't because of a combination of either technical limits or economic conditions," he says. "We're seeing quite a lot of that. "Some solar farms are upwards of 40 per cent curtailed at different times of the year, sometimes even higher. "But at an aggregate level, we're seeing 10 per cent of renewable energy curtailed across the grid." Solar and coal demand over the course of the day. To complicate things further, Australia has one of the highest rates of rooftop solar in the world. There are now more than 4 million small-scale installations on homes and businesses all over the country. And rooftop solar can't just be shut down. It's growing presence has implications for grid demand and for operators like AEMO to manage. Remember that metaphor in which AEMO is like a conductor? In the case of rooftop solar, it's like the audience has started singing along and the conductor has to work out whether to conduct it or when tell it to be quiet. More than any other technology, it's rooftop solar that has undermined the business case for coal and forced change on the market. Dr McConnell says coal plant operators are, to a certain extent, learning to adapt to the new world, but at a certain point working this way becomes unprofitable. "I guess there's a distinction between being technically possible and economically viable." Without new coal being built, we've got a limited amount of time until it exits the system. State governments are striking deals to keep some coal plants on for longer, but AEMO still expects most of the fleet to be gone in the next decade. So, what would a grid without coal look like? Looking at our electricity use on a state level gives us a good idea. Evolving the grid for the future Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are primarily run by coal. WA uses a large share of gas due to its large-scale production in the state. Meanwhile, Tasmania makes use of its water resources for hydro power, with imports from neighbouring Victoria for support. The energy mix in the six states. But take a closer look at South Australia. South Australia closed its last coal-fired power plant in 2016, and now runs on a mix renewables, gas, imports and, increasingly, batteries. Energy mix in South Australia over 5 days. There are days when the grid runs at nearly 100 per cent renewables. Keep in mind that this clean energy is also the cheapest option when it's producing. When demand is highest you can see gas, batteries and imports from other states step in. Gas could run all the time, but it only jumps in when there's money to be made. But see this little line in the bottom? For the most part, it's the only "base-load" power needed to keep things going in a grid dominated by renewables. Gas demand in South Australia. It's required by AEMO to keep the grid stable, but increasingly there are discussions about how batteries and other kit could do this job. Also worth noting in SA is what wind and batteries are doing. These dips in generation show just how much wind is being curtailed to make way for rooftop solar. Solar, wind and batteries in South Australia. But if this cheap power could be stored by batteries or other sources, less wind would need to be turned off. Storage could play a bigger role in the evenings when solar goes offline. Demand is high in the evenings. The grid of the future Dr Mconnell says SA provides a really useful snapshot into what much of Australia's grid could look like, but it's not quite there yet. He says storage is something that will need to grow. SA is a leader in battery use, but there's still a long way to go for battery projects in Australia, and even then, batteries aren't always sufficient or the only solution. Big batteries generally discharge for about four hours and although there are eight-hour ones coming online, they work well in a cycle of charging up during the day before discharging in the evenings. For those situations where we might want power over a longer period of time, pumped hydro is another technology that's on the rise. Snowy 2.0 in the Snowy Mountains has been hailed as an important addition to the NEM. Essentially, it's one big battery — you pump water uphill using cheap electricity and then run it though a turbine back down to generate electricity when needed. The big difference is that storing all this energy in the form of water is easy to do at a scale that's vast compared to an average battery. It can't compete with batteries in terms of how quickly it can charge and discharge power, but it can step in when renewable energy levels are lower over longer periods of time. Pumped hydro works by charging and discharging water reservoirs. While we roll these technologies out at scale, open-cycle and peaking gas plants are much better suited to complementing solar and wind power than coal. Crucially, Dr McConnell says they can run for days or weeks at a time. "They are complementing renewable energy rather well," he says. "They are spending a lot of time offline and then coming on in those critical peaks." On the downside, he says gas generators, like coal plants, still face a critical problem — their share of the market is being eroded by renewable energy. And they, too, produce emissions. He says it's hard to make a business case for a plant that only runs some of the time. He says that's why Australia should be prioritising things that are cheap to build, even if they're expensive to run. Longer-term Dr McConnell reckons gas turbines will still be a natural complement to and back-up for intermittent wind and solar power and storage. Whether the gas is natural gas — or fossil gas, as he calls it — or some other type of fuel such as hydrogen is an open question. What does this mean for nuclear power? But what is clear, according to Dr McConnell, is there is a very limited role for any base-load power in Australia in the future, let alone large amounts of what is in nuclear almost the ultimate source of round-the-clock generation. He says that's why the experience of coal is such a useful way to understand the challenge nuclear faces. In both cases, the up-front — or capital — costs of building the plant are high and construction can take a long time — decades, even. The key to the economic success of such plants is running them at or near their capacity as much as possible to ensure owners can recoup their huge investments. The Coalition's plan assumes that we will run nuclear almost around the clock to recoup those costs, but Dr McConnell says in Australia the experience of coal suggests that's not feasible. "If you were running a nuclear power plant flat out, a 90 per cent capacity factor… most of the year, then the cost of that generation is very different to what we might see, say, with a 50 per cent capacity factor," he says. "(That) is getting close to what we see in some coal plants in New South Wales at the moment or even lower. "The costs disproportionately increase as you decrease that utilisation rate." And while he acknowledges that technically nuclear plants can be more flexible than brown coal generators, he says that would do little to improve their viability. "Just to reiterate, being technically flexible and running like that is quite distinct from that being an economically viable thing to do," Dr McConnell says. To reconcile the dissonant natures of renewable energy and nuclear power, he argues something will have to give. Already in New South Wales coal isn't running at anywhere the level required to make nuclear viable. Coal generation in NSW is declining. But remember that little red line in SA. That's what's currently needed to keep the grid secure — a tiny fraction of total demand. Gas only plays a small part in SA's energy mix. Either nuclear power plants will have to dial down during periods of high green energy production — as coal plants do now — or solar and wind will need to be curtailed or not built at all. And that won't mean just turning off solar farms. It'll also involve turning off rooftop solar and charging households to use power from the grid when they could be getting it for free from the sun. "If… you're turning off rooftop solar as opposed to ramping down your nuclear plant, then that's obviously going to be a politically challenging direction," Dr McConnell says. For Dr McConnell, the answers to Australia's energy problems are not as complicated as they might seem. He says there's now so much renewable energy in system — and so much more coming — that trying to turn back the clock in favour of a base-load technology would be folly. Instead, he argues Australia should come to grips with the likelihood that its grid would soon be dominated by renewable energy — and take the necessary steps to ensure it works properly. "Essentially, the things that you want to balance renewables… tend towards lower capital cost and higher running costs," he says. "And that's why peakers and gas generators play this role now or fit well with this role. "They are essentially the opposite of what is provided by a nuclear power plant." Could things change in the future? Elsewhere in the world, nuclear power is enjoying renewed interest as demand for electricity — driven by factors from rising wealth to the growth of data centres and artificial intelligence — surges. Nuclear power is, after all, already a major source of emissions-free electricity in many places. Similarly, the electrification of everything — from the cars we drive and our household heating systems, to the industrial processes we use to make things — will add ever more to demand for power. Even accounting for this, Dr McConnell says the case for nuclear energy in Australia will be a hard sell. In places where nuclear is resurging, the availability of land or the quality of the wind and solar resources is often lacking. But he says that's not the case in Australia. "Honestly, I struggle to see that in Australia, specifically, because we have such an abundance of resources and land and renewable energy capacity," he says. "Depending on who you talk to, we're talking 20 years until a nuclear power plant will be built in Australia. Maybe you could go plus or minus five years on that, but we're talking a long time. "And we've got a lot of coal-fired power stations that are coming to the end of their technical lives. "It's sort of like, 'Well, what do we do in the meantime?'" Australia's future will be a mix of power sources. Notes on the data Energy data is from OpenElectricity Energy data is from OpenElectricity Average generation data for states covers the period from 12am March 6 to 8am April 3, 2025 Average generation data for states covers the period from 12am March 6 to 8am April 3, 2025 Average prices by energy source is for the NEM between April 8, 2024 to April 13, 2025 Average prices by energy source is for the NEM between April 8, 2024 to April 13, 2025 Data for solar includes both utility and rooftop solar Credits
