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Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
How Retail Weakness Is Skewing Small Business Optimism Data
It's not all gray skies. For now, the dark clouds are mostly over retail. (Photo by) Small business optimism looks weak, but worries are most pronounced among retailers. The April 2025 Small Business Optimism Index came in at 95.8, below the 51-year average of 98. The index, published monthly by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), fell across all sectors tracked in the report: construction, manufacturing, retail, and services. The latest survey reflects responses collected during the first two weeks of April and captures small business owner expectations for hiring, investment, sales, and the broader economy. The overall optimism reading was down 1.6 percentage points from March. Retail business owners were the least optimistic, with an index reading of 93.7, according to a supplementary report published by NFIB on May 27. That is 6.4 points below January and the only sector to come in below the overall long-term average. Retailers also reported the weakest hiring plans, the most inventory complaints, and the most widespread supply chain disruptions. Many, if not all, of these concerns are tied to President Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods, which were announced on April 2. Only 10% of retail owners plan to hire, compared to 13% across all small businesses. Seventy-six percent of retailers say supply chain issues are affecting their business. Fourteen percent say their inventories are too low, the lowest of any sector. Even with those headwinds, a net 7% expect real sales to rise, which is better than the overall small business outlook. Construction, on the other hand, remains the most confident sector. Its index reading was 100.9, down 3.9 points from January but still the highest among all industries. More than half of construction businesses report unfilled job openings, and 20% plan to hire in the next three months. Labor remains the industry's top concern. Nearly a third of construction owners said finding qualified workers is their most pressing issue. That shortage is likely being made worse by the Trump Administration's immigration crackdown. About one in three construction workers is an immigrant, and nearly half of painters and drywall installers are foreign born. Manufacturing and services also declined but stayed above the overall long-term average. Manufacturing optimism fell the most of any industry, dropping 6.8 points. This came despite the Trump Administration's push to onshore production and strengthen domestic supply chains. Even so, manufacturers reported the strongest earnings trends and the best expectations for future sales. In the services sector, hiring plans actually increased slightly, and expectations for the economy were the second highest of any group. Despite the broader decline in optimism, 69% of all small business owners rated their business health as excellent or good. That was true across every industry. Finance (74%) led the way. Transportation came in last (just 60%). Tariffs may be weighing on confidence, but outside of retail, most small businesses still see a path forward. While the overall index is down, three of the four major sectors remain more optimistic than the historical trend. That said, retail's struggles aren't a sideshow. When including direct and indirect employment, such as supply chain workers, retail employs about 55 million Americans and contributes $2.2 trillion to the country's annual gross domestic product, according to the National Retail Federation. Even if tariffs are hitting retailers hardest for now, the ripple effects could spread quickly. A slowdown in retail hiring, investment, and consumer spending could drag down broader economic momentum in the months ahead. More from Forbes
Time of India
15-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US weekly jobless claims unchanged amid stable labor market
Unemployment claims remained steady at 229,000, signaling a stable labor market, but businesses are hesitant to hire amid tariff-related economic uncertainty. A survey indicated fewer small businesses are struggling to fill job openings. Despite a temporary trade truce with China, lingering import duties contribute to concerns, influencing economists to adjust unemployment rate forecasts slightly downward. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, but job opportunities are becoming more scarce for those out of work as economic uncertainty from tariffs discourages businesses from boosting claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended May 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 229,000 claims for the latest have moved in a 205,000-243,000 range this year, consistent with a historically low level of have been hanging on to their workers following difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. President Donald Trump's on-and-off again tariffs have created an uncertain economic environment, resulting in major companies from airlines to motor vehicle manufacturers pulling their 2025 financial forecasts.A National Federation of Independent Business survey this week showed the share of small businesses reporting job openings they could not fill dropped in April to the lowest level since January the United States and China struck a 90-day truce in their trade war over the weekend, slashing tariffs on imports, uncertainty remained over what happens thereafter. A 10% blanket duty on almost all imports into the United States stayed in place as did sectoral number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.881 million during the week ending May 3, the claims report showed. That aligns with a surge in the median duration of unemployment to 10.4 weeks in April from 9.8 weeks in the reduction of the Chinese imports duty to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, economists trimmed their estimates for unemployment this year. Goldman Sachs now sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% in December, down from 4.7% previously. The jobless rate was at 4.2% in April. (Reporting By Lucia Mutikani)
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US weekly jobless claims unchanged amid stable labor market
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, but job opportunities are becoming more scarce for those out of work as economic uncertainty from tariffs discourages businesses from boosting hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended May 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 229,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have moved in a 205,000-243,000 range this year, consistent with a historically low level of layoffs. Companies have been hanging on to their workers following difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. President Donald Trump's on-and-off again tariffs have created an uncertain economic environment, resulting in major companies from airlines to motor vehicle manufacturers pulling their 2025 financial forecasts. A National Federation of Independent Business survey this week showed the share of small businesses reporting job openings they could not fill dropped in April to the lowest level since January 2021. Though the United States and China struck a 90-day truce in their trade war over the weekend, slashing tariffs on imports, uncertainty remained over what happens thereafter. A 10% blanket duty on almost all imports into the United States stayed in place as did sectoral taxes. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.881 million during the week ending May 3, the claims report showed. That aligns with a surge in the median duration of unemployment to 10.4 weeks in April from 9.8 weeks in March. Following the reduction of the Chinese imports duty to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, economists trimmed their estimates for unemployment this year. Goldman Sachs now sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% in December, down from 4.7% previously. The jobless rate was at 4.2% in April. (Reporting By Lucia Mutikani)
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US weekly jobless claims unchanged amid stable labor market
WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, but job opportunities are becoming more scarce for those out of work as economic uncertainty from tariffs discourages businesses from boosting hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended May 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 229,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have moved in a 205,000-243,000 range this year, consistent with a historically low level of layoffs. Companies have been hanging on to their workers following difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. President Donald Trump's on-and-off again tariffs have created an uncertain economic environment, resulting in major companies from airlines to motor vehicle manufacturers pulling their 2025 financial forecasts. A National Federation of Independent Business survey this week showed the share of small businesses reporting job openings they could not fill dropped in April to the lowest level since January 2021. Though the United States and China struck a 90-day truce in their trade war over the weekend, slashing tariffs on imports, uncertainty remained over what happens thereafter. A 10% blanket duty on almost all imports into the United States stayed in place as did sectoral taxes. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.881 million during the week ending May 3, the claims report showed. That aligns with a surge in the median duration of unemployment to 10.4 weeks in April from 9.8 weeks in March. Following the reduction of the Chinese imports duty to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, economists trimmed their estimates for unemployment this year. Goldman Sachs now sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% in December, down from 4.7% previously. The jobless rate was at 4.2% in April.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US weekly jobless claims unchanged amid stable labor market
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, but job opportunities are becoming more scarce for those out of work as economic uncertainty from tariffs discourages businesses from boosting hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended May 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 229,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have moved in a 205,000-243,000 range this year, consistent with a historically low level of layoffs. Companies have been hanging on to their workers following difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. President Donald Trump's on-and-off again tariffs have created an uncertain economic environment, resulting in major companies from airlines to motor vehicle manufacturers pulling their 2025 financial forecasts. A National Federation of Independent Business survey this week showed the share of small businesses reporting job openings they could not fill dropped in April to the lowest level since January 2021. Though the United States and China struck a 90-day truce in their trade war over the weekend, slashing tariffs on imports, uncertainty remained over what happens thereafter. A 10% blanket duty on almost all imports into the United States stayed in place as did sectoral taxes. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.881 million during the week ending May 3, the claims report showed. That aligns with a surge in the median duration of unemployment to 10.4 weeks in April from 9.8 weeks in March. Following the reduction of the Chinese imports duty to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, economists trimmed their estimates for unemployment this year. Goldman Sachs now sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% in December, down from 4.7% previously. The jobless rate was at 4.2% in April. (Reporting By Lucia Mutikani)
