Latest news with #NeilHowe
Euronews
09-05-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Is this the end of US exceptionalism and start of European rebirth?
There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happen. The past few weeks have certainly fallen into the latter category, with remarkable intensity. Since Donald Trump's Liberation day announcements, stock markets have made a round trip. After an initial collapse we saw one of the strongest and fastest rebounds in recent history. For the moment, things seem to have calmed down. Still, we are clearly not out of the woods yet. Or to put it in market terms: expect volatility to persist. This volatility originates from both the geopolitical and economic domains. As Neil Howe so eloquently argues in his book "The Fourth Turning Is Here," a fourth turning is unfortunately a period marked by wars and geopolitical tensions — an era in which extremist parties, both from the left and the right, gain strength, while the centre becomes smaller, weaker and increasingly powerless to make the decisions that, in the end, everyone knows must be made. It is also a point in history during which sitting presidents, parties, and governments of any colour, shape or ideology are typically voted out. The second big source of uncertainty and volatility originates from the economic sphere and is closely related to the first one. In a fourth turning, globalisation is under pressure. In our book "The New World Economy in 5 Trends," Koen De Leus and I discuss not deglobalisation but multi-globalisation. We are no longer looking at a unipolar world solely centred around the US. Say hello to the multipolar world in which China is rapidly becoming a pole of economic and military power. Meanwhile, the old continent is struggling to speak with one voice and remain relevant. Just to say that the economic volatility that we are witnessing is closely related to the geopolitical fragmentation. Not so long ago, when the world was still truly globalised, we had one global business cycle. All the major blocks tended to move together on the waves of global expansion and global contraction. In this world, central banks' action would sometimes differ a bit in an amplitude, but generally the direction would be the same. Today, it is not so hard to envision the US and the European economies to grow at a different pace and central banks as a consequence conduct and all together different policy. Also, China will, depending on the policies conducted, grow at a different speed. Japan is finally exiting more than four decades of deflation and its interest rates are on the rise, while in most other parts of the world they are coming down. We should look at this new economic reality in terms of tectonic plates. The blocks are no longer moving at the same speed in the same direction. Instead, the plates are shifting unpredictably at different speeds. It's no wonder that we'll see collisions, leading to massive volatility in currency and interest rate markets as a logical consequence. In this world, volatility will be more the rule than the exception. The main conclusion of our book 'The new world economy in 5 trends' is that after the COVID-19 pandemic, we have moved into a new economic paradigm in which both interest rates and inflation will be structurally higher than from 1982 until the pandemic. It all comes and goes in waves, it always does. And a huge wave is coming. The drivers of this totally new environment are the massive debts, aging of the population, multi-globalisation (including a new arms race) and climate change. Innovation may play a mitigating role and may in an extreme scenario be even powerful enough to counter the four other forces. All of this has deep and profound consequences for investors. Even though volatility will be huge, holding too much cash is not an option as inflation will eat up its purchasing power. Above all, investors should focus on real assets like equities, real estate, wine and gold and silver, for which the bull market has only just has begun. The same goes for the commodity space. We are only in the very first inning of the largest commodity bull market in time due to massive supply shortages that we foresee. For companies, it means that they should put in place hedging techniques for navigating a world of higher interest rates, higher inflation and higher and more volatile commodity prices. Countries have a unique opportunity to outperform in a fourth turning, at least for those who understand the rules of the new game. Those who don't will have a hard time keeping the bond vigilantes off their backs. Maybe in 30 years' time we will look back on today as both the start of the European Renaissance and the end of US Exceptionalism. This would bode well for both the euro and European equities. However, it will not be a walk in the park. The road that the old continent will have to travel to be once again a voice on the world stage will be long, hard and winding. Philippe Gijsels is Chief Strategy Officer at BNP Paribas Fortis. Germany's Commerzbank posted better-than-expected results for the first three months of 2025. Instead of the anticipated declining net income, the bank's net result increased by 12% to €834 million. The lender's revenues increased by 12% to €3.1 billion, while net interest income was slightly less than a year ago, standing at €2.07bn at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the net commission income, driven by a strong securities business, grew by 6% to €1bn in the same period. 'We achieved the highest quarterly profit since 2011, demonstrating that we can grow even in economically challenging times,' Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp said. 'We are progressing with the implementation of our strategy 'Momentum'. We plan to return more capital to our shareholders in the coming years.' Commerzbank completed a share buyback programme of €1bn starting from November 2024, and it also proposes to pay a dividend of €0.65 per share, which will be decided at the Annual General Meeting on 15 May 2025. The better-than-expected results are coming at a time when the German bank is making efforts to fend off Italian banking group Unicredit's takeover advances. Unicredit has recently acquired a large stake in Commerzbank, raising its stake to 29.9%, just short of the 30% threshold at which Unicredit is required to make a public offer for the entire bank. In February, Commerzbank announced cost-cutting measures, including job cuts of about 10% of the bank's workforce, to fend off any takeover bid by the Italian bank. The German lender's employee representatives are also organising a protest against a possible takeover, scheduled just hours before Commerzbank's annual general meeting on 15 May. The German bank said that this year it expects a higher net result of around €2.4bn for the full year, after restructuring expenses. The bank set aside €40m for restructuring expenses in the first quarter, for an early partial retirement programme, which the bank will offer later this year. It is part of the job reductions, the lender is currently negotiating with the employee representative committees. Furthermore, to preserve profitability, Commerzbank reduces its dependence on net interest income –the difference between what it earns from loans and pays for deposits–as interest rates fall. The return on tangible equity improved to 11.1% from last year's 10.5% in the first quarter, which is seasonally strong. 'We are on track to reach our full-year target of around 9.6%,' Commerzbank CFO Carsten Schmitt said. 'At the same time, we are reducing our dependency on net interest income. We confirm our outlook for 2025.'
Telegraph
22-03-2025
- General
- Telegraph
What boomers really think about Gen Z
Are you a retired boomer, and find millennial whingeing a massive irritation? Or perhaps you are a go-getting Gen Xer who can't understand stay-at-home Gen Z? The truth is, most of us have a view on the other generations and their perceived shortcomings, believing the era we were born in to be the most character-building of all. In the Eighties, two American authors, William Strauss and Neil Howe, came up with a generational theory that sought to define people who lived through specific periods in history. The theory suggests that every 21 years, a new generation arrives – shaped by political, financial, social and technological changes. Thus baby boomers's personalities are shaped by the huge social changes that took place post-Second World War, and Generation X's by Margaret Thatcher and the Big Bang. Meanwhile, millennials grew up with the internet and the credit crunch, while for Gen Z the defining moment of their lives is the pandemic. In recent years, inter-generational warfare has reached a zenith thanks to endless memes and reels on TikTok and Instagram. But how much do the stereotypes we associate with each generation hold true? What do people think shaped their generations's values and, crucially, how much do they buy into the criticisms of their forebears and successors? We travelled the length and breadth of Britain to find out what the generations really make of each other – and found out feelings towards other generations are more nuanced, complex and contradictory than first thought. Meet the baby boomers Defined as those born between 1946 and 1964, baby boomers are the post-war generation who came of age during a new era for Britain. A series of revolutions changed the lives of young boomers – women's access to work and education had never been greater, the contraceptive pill changed sexual politics, and the space race was accelerating technology throughout their childhoods. Jane Barker, 65, an education officer for a wildlife charity from Lancashire, and Justin James, 75, a heating engineer and company director from Wiltshire, reflect on what it means to be a boomer. What does it mean to be a boomer? I was the first woman in my family to go to university; a big change from that traditional home-bound female role my mum embodied. I never thought for a moment I'd have a life like that. I was a punk (not a very radical one) and that movement said you could do whatever you wanted. If you had the guts, what would stop you? Perhaps that has made us a pushy, opinionated generation, used to getting what we want. Boomers were ambitious. We wanted to better ourselves and were prepared to put in the work – we worked really long hours, but we expected to be able to achieve a good life through work. That social contract has changed nowadays. But there's an element of bigotry. There's less tolerance for people who are different to us. – JB We had the best era. We were happier in those days because we didn't have mobiles or TVs, we had to make our own enjoyment. We had better friendships too. Nowadays it's all about who you are and what you've got – none of that used to matter. I had friends on good money while I had nothing, and it was no problem. People were more prepared to be friends with those outside of their socio-economic class or political background in those days. The one thing I fall out with my children over all the time is the idea that I never worry about anything whereas they're always stressed. My generation was never like that: if the roof fell in, what's the point of panicking? Let's get it sorted. We were more resilient. Nowadays you have to be so careful about what you say. – JJ On Gen X I don't think Gen X are too different to us. They're resourceful, they're grafters, probably because they're pre-digital, like boomers. – JB I agree. It wouldn't have been until the late 1970s that most of them got colour televisions and there still wouldn't have been mobile phones or the internet. It's only since the 1990s things were falling apart. – JJ On millennials This is the generation where the work ethic starts to dissipate. I suspect millennials feel that it's not the case that hard work leads to rewards. You can't build resilience unless you're allowed to fail. We created a generation of young people who struggle because they've never had to confront things. It's awful to say 'you might have to just cope with that', but sometimes that's how you learn. – JB They were sold up the river. Life is harder now and it's not their fault. I think they've been lied to by governments who told them that they'd go to university and all come out with great jobs. They all want to be at the very top: lawyers, doctors and Hollywood actors. Millennials are quite a disappointed generation. – JJ On Gen Z I feel desperately sorry for Gen Z because they will be constantly miserable. Their expectations are so high and they need so much validation. The world they live in is tough, the constant scrutiny they're faced with is tough. – JB They only see what's in front of them. They know they can look things up online so they don't want to learn. If they can't do something, they sulk. They don't want to try. – JJ Meet Generation X Born between 1965 and 1980, Generation X came of age during a period of prosperity and positivity. Business was booming, and as Generation X hit adulthood, technologies including mobile phones and email were starting to proliferate. Britain entered a period of economic and cultural dominance. Annabel Eyres, 60, a former Olympian and wellness entrepreneur based in Hampshire, and Martin Sharp, 49, a fitness and lifestyle coach from York. consider what it means to be Gen X. What does it mean to be Gen X? We grew up in an era of British optimism. Politics was glamorous, there was a sense of fun, music was great – Fleetwood Mac, Genesis, Super Tramp, ABBA, Soft Cell – incredible. Our parents were tough cookies but reserved. Some of that filtered down to Gen X. We recoil from self-promotion. The culture of shouting about your achievements, which you get from boomers, millennials and Gen Z, is an anathema to Gen X. My generation was taught not to shout about our achievements. The humbler you were, the better. Because our parents were war babies, there was an emphasis on getting together and working together against a perceived threat. Even if Thatcher said 'there's no such thing as society', I don't think that's true for Gen X. We knew the bogeyman was round the corner, but it didn't stop us doing anything. Threats were more distant and abstract. Now they're in our phones, on computers, on TV; there's no escape. Even if we grew up with the threat of nuclear war, it felt too big to worry about. – AE We grew up with the space race, a huge movement towards consumerism, people learning a lot more, way more social mobility. We grew up with old world values and an old world way of doing things, but then by the time I got into secondary school there were a lot of exciting technological changes happening. We're optimistic. When you speak to Gen Xers, the glass is always half full. There's always opportunity on the table, always something to be done. Rather than worrying about things, we just get on with it and make the best of what we can. We were unshackled from the worries of the post-war era. That filled our generation with optimism. – MS On boomers They're quite buttoned up. They're not open about their emotions and they're not obsessed with mental health; they still had their issues but they didn't really talk about them. – AE You had your job for life, you had an amazing pension, you had your house for peanuts and it was paid off by the time you retired. Every generation has made decisions I wouldn't have. The demolition of the coal industry decimated communities around where I grew up in Leeds, which is still felt today. – MS On millennials Hard-working, but perhaps in a more traditional way. They want an employer and a corporate job, something with a defined path. As a generation, millennials aren't big risk-takers. They might not be the Sloane Rangers like we had in my generation, but they are still party people, definitely enjoy a drink and know how to relax. The whole thing about millennials being woke is overstated. We witnessed the most vile homophobia when I was growing up, and that has changed massively. – AE Millennials get a hard time. They're seen as getting stuff handed to them, but they've run a hell of a lot faster than we did to get to the same pace we achieved as Gen X. – MS On Gen Z They're entrepreneurial, they're excited about doing things differently. They're constantly attached to their phones. That has put more of a stamp on this generation than any other. That ties into the rise of ADHD diagnoses which is sweeping across all generations. I'm sure there's more to come out about what phones do to your brains. They're not a resilient generation but that's not their fault. – AE People don't realise the expectations placed on Gen Z. We would go to school to meet up with friends and have a laugh, nowadays kids can only do school work, they don't get to have fun anymore. – MS Meet the millennials Sometimes known as the 'digital native' generation, millennials were born between 1981 and 1996. Their childhoods and teenage years were marked by the mass adoption of the internet and later, social media. Globalisation made the world more accessible for millennials than it had ever been, but the buoyant optimism of Gen X was tempered by the global war on terror and the financial crash which changed economic fortunes. Frankie O'Dowd, 44, a fashion retail technologist from Northamptonshire, and Joel Smith, 29, a business development consultant who lives in Manchester, reflect on what it means to be millennials. What does it mean to be a millennial? We went from having a childhood that a Victorian would recognise to something unlike anything before – in the space of a few years, we got computers, Tamagotchis, phones and then the internet in our pockets. Our generation realised the past wasn't always better, and thought 'can't we find a new way of doing things?'. Via the internet we were able to look further and get information more quickly. The 2008 financial crash solidified that position. The old world order: work for a company, make money, buy a house; it wasn't going to happen. So why would we play by the old rules? Why not live in a way that makes us happier? Millennials have embraced work/life balance. Work no longer defines us. – FO We were the first generation in human history to experience adolescence online. We formed our social lives with an online audience. Friends on the other side of the world were just as important as friends we saw every day, so we wanted to share our lives more widely. Because everyone is sharing the highlights of their lives online, we're constantly comparing ourselves to others. Not only are you being told you are spending too much money on things, you're also being told 'buy more, engage with consumerism, get a personal trainer, go on luxury holidays. If you don't, you're a failure'. It's tough. Millennials can be pessimistic. Every government budget our entire adult lives has been about austerity, belt tightening, everything getting more expensive, getting paid less, being taxed more. We know that success isn't always possible, no matter how much we work for it. – JS On boomers Boomers were similar to millennials. They were trying to be modern and fun, trying to move on from the war. They didn't want to go back to the drab 1950s. I sometimes think that the real cause of all the strife between millennials and boomers is that they're a bit frustrated we don't recognise how radical their lives were. – FO Boomers are credulous. They swallow what they're told without question. I guess that comes from growing up in the shadow of war. They're patriotic because when they think of Britain there's a national identity. In contrast, millennials tend to just associate Britain with how the country is run. We don't understand their patriotism. – JS On Gen X If I think about all the rights I enjoy: equal pay, anti-discrimination, being respected as a woman at work; those were fights that Gen X had. They pulled up their Doc Martens and went out to create the world that we enjoy. You can't micromanage Gen X because they grew up with a level of freedom in childhood you don't see anymore. It set them up well for life. – FO They were more free-thinking than boomers. There was a lot more social reform going on in Gen X: women's rights, Pride marches; society's views on what was normal was being developed by Gen X. – JS On Gen Z I feel a lot of sympathy for them, they've lived with social media their whole lives. They haven't been able to make mistakes without it being online. They are also better educated; more information is available to them so they're more clued up, which is a factor in why they're healthier. They're more sensible than us. No hate for Gen Z, but millennials had a bit more fun. – FO They're such an open-minded and accepting generation. When I was a teenager, coming out as gay was terrifying, but Gen Z don't bat an eyelid. They're socially aware: what people's needs are, what's polite and what's impolite to say. - JS Meet the Gen Zs Gen Z (those born between 1997 and 2010) grew up in an age where the internet and social media were commonplace, but the biggest event which shaped their childhood was the global Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdowns radically changing schooling, university experiences, and early stage careers. George Wakely, 26, a public relations consultant from Scarborough and Alice Maxwell-Hyslop, 19, a social anthropology student currently living in Edinburgh discuss what it means to be Gen Z. What does is mean to be Gen Z? Some of the most important years of our lives were spent entirely on screens, whether that was university or taking our first steps into work. Thankfully, we're very tech-savvy because we never experienced a world without it. It's a new normal. We're less focused on work than previous generations, probably because we know work isn't going to reward us as much: it's not like we can buy houses! Instead, myself and the rest of my generation seek flexibility and work/life balance. It ties into Gen Z being seen as health-focused. While people used to go for drinks after work, I'd prefer to read. Gen Z is sometimes called the ' anxious generation ' and that resonates a lot. Social media has given us big expectations of what life should look like. A perfect life isn't just a far flung idea; it's personified as someone we know on there. That's tricky to live up to. – GW There's more activism and that comes from growing up online and seeing what's going on in the wider world. A lot of people my age want careers where they can do good, even if it means not getting paid loads. They want to end climate change or poverty. We're more liberal. We respect authenticity, the focus is on personal character, not someone's skin colour, gender identity or sexuality. Growing up on the internet where anyone can be anything they want, we respect people who are real. We've stepped back from some of the more strident aspects of millennial culture. I'm pretty anti-cancel culture for instance. Nowadays, the main cancellers are 50-year-old men telling us how evil some 18-year-old celeb is, or anonymous guys with usernames like ''user2596'. It's embarrassing and has definitely gone too far. We find socialising harder. Coming back into the real world after lockdown, you realise how quickly you lose the ability to chat, you don't know what to say to people, you overthink conversations. The more time we spend online, the more we'll see that. – AMH On boomers It depends on gender. Boomer women really did pave the way. Women have more choice now about how they live and that's thanks to boomer women fighting for that. Boomer men, in contrast, knew what they wanted and that was it. Not more, not less. Now I see a lot of frustration from boomer men about their place in the modern world. – GW That generation is the complete opposite to ours. My grandparents could say racist or homophobic things as they grew up in the days when they were told people who were different to them were monsters or not normal. Boomers are very career-driven. At university I study social anthropology, and when I tell people of my grandparents's age about that, they ask: 'what career is that going to lead you into?' Nowadays, jobs are more abstract and there are so many different fields to work in. For Gen Z work is about transferable skills, whereas boomers were more about specific trades. – AMH On Gen X They're very professional and single-minded. There's a stereotype about Gen X, and maybe even the younger boomers, that they're the 'Karen' generation. My mum is called Karen and she hates it, but it rings true: that element of being quite demanding. They complain and act quite entitled, and get wound up about trivial issues. – GW They're seeing a contrast between themselves and the way we have grown up with tech. They're sceptical about social media and they're forever writing thinkpieces about the dangers. My mum panics about my online footprint: 'what if your future employer sees that?' But I don't think posting silly TikToks will deter employers, because everyone's doing it. My parents's generation are obsessed with professionalism, even in their personal lives. – AMH On millennials Millennials paved the way for Gen Z to have fun. They changed society for the better. They normalised sexual freedom: before millennials it was taboo, now it's like going bowling. Sometimes millennials go too far with wokeness. They get offended over silly things. A good example is pronouns; one person gets annoyed at someone's pronouns, the other gets annoyed their pronouns aren't being used correctly, others get annoyed that they don't understand it. Gen Z rolls our eyes and gets on with it. – GW They can be quite cringeworthy on the internet. They have Facebook pages and post selfies of them in front of a view. Lame. I don't know any Gen Zs who use Facebook or who would ever post pictures of themselves in front of the Eiffel Tower for instance. Millennials are still a bit excited about technology while we view it as passé. Half of them were like Gen Z: they got technology in their teenage years when they were probably most worried about what people thought of them. In contrast, older millennials got social media when they were in their 20s and cared less what people thought of them, so they've been less warped by having to perform for an audience online. – AMH
