Latest news with #NewColdWar
Bloomberg
6 hours ago
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Vladislav Zubok on What the Cold War Actually Was
By and Joe Weisenthal Save Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify Subscribe to the newsletter These days, it's common to talk about the emergence of a New Cold War that exists between the US and China. It's debatable whether or not this is a useful framing. But in order to answer the question, it requires that you have some conception of what the original Cold War actually was. Vladislav Zubok, a professor at the London School of Economics, has a new book out on exactly this question. In The World of the Cold War: 1945-1991, Zubok attempts to explain how we should understand this period, which he sees as both an ideological battle, as well as a geo-strategic one — and also a battle that the two main actors (the US and the USSR) saw very differently at the time. In addition to understanding the contours of that tension, we discuss its applicability today, as the new administration attempts to re-arrange our relationship with China and the Middle East, as well as other rivals, allies, and partners.
Time Magazine
17-05-2025
- Business
- Time Magazine
It's Time for Trump and Xi to Meet
The world sighed a breath of relief this week when the U.S. and China agreed to hit pause on unprecedented tariffs between the world's two most powerful countries. Although the decision is a major breakthrough in the trade war, both sides should take the further step of pursuing détente. Fortunately, that may be on the cards. That is because only two men—Donald Trump and Xi Jinping—must be convinced. And they have both shown an openness to the idea. Trump had repeatedly expressed desires to meet with Xi and strike a wide-ranging deal earlier on in his presidency. But the April 2025 tariffs created a bilateral impasse. The 90-day truce announced on Monday has changed that, and Trump has subsequently suggested that a direct call with Xi could be imminent, putting a broader rapprochement back on the agenda. If they talk, Xi might find Trump a more appealing negotiating partner than Joe Biden. The prior President's approach to China was highly ideological and competitive, stressing democracy versus autocracy, and seeking to align countries against China—while offering Beijing few incentives for cooperation. But unlike the Biden team, which focused on technocratically managing tensions, Trump seems to share China's preference for negotiating fundamental issues. On contentious problems like TikTok's status in America, Trump has already bucked political orthodoxy, delaying a ban repeatedly to convince China to allow its sale. The leader duo might conclude that moving toward détente could allow them to better address their shared concerns over domestic economies, growing debt, and social stability. Simply put, Trump and Xi might prefer nation-building at home to escalating a costly and dangerous rivalry. But if the two leaders wait too long, rivalry will gain momentum as hawks on both sides continue pushing for a New Cold War and preparing for a possible armed showdown. For a reset to begin, both men must be confident that an agreement can be rapidly struck. They need to speak directly but also empower their advisors to make concrete and actionable proposals. And ideally, a phone call leads to a face-to-face summit. This process will not be easy, but if Trump is prepared, he can make history. The two sides should look to resolve the most acute points of tensions. Trump could begin orchestrating a new trade deal while also trying to defuse the emerging nuclear weapons rivalry. Finding common ground with one could help with the other. China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal to over 600 warheads and—if U.S. intelligence assessments are correct—is on a path to matching America's and Russia's deployed arsenals of about 1,500 warheads each. Trump has repeatedly voiced a desire to negotiate nuclear cuts, yet Beijing has resisted, citing the huge gap between its nuclear arsenal and that of Washington. So how could this dynamic shift? There are reasons to believe that China is still open to arms control. A significant step forward for U.S.-China nuclear diplomacy could be a joint 'sole purpose' declaration that nuclear weapons are only for deterring nuclear attacks. This would address a major Chinese concern, as some in Washington are advocating using nuclear weapons first against Chinese conventional military forces in a Taiwan conflict. Yet the most bold and adroit diplomatic maneuver for Trump could be to induce China into 'meeting halfway': coordinating a trilateral cap between China, Russia, and the U.S. at 1,000 warheads each, averting an unprecedented three-way nuclear weapons race. That would be a drastic shift, but Trump has shown a willingness to junk political orthodoxy, as this week's decision to lift sanctions on Syria and meet Ahmed el-Sharaa showed. The Taiwan issue is also ripe for compromise and would strongly enhance a U.S.-China détente. Trump could be the right leader to forge compromise. Mutual accommodation could involve Washington adhering more closely to its ' One China Policy ' and removing the U.S. troops working as military advisors on Taiwan's outer islands. In return, Beijing could ease its nearby force deployments and slow the tempo of its military exercises around Taiwan. Lowering the temperature on Taiwan would have positive impacts elsewhere. China-Philippines frictions might subside if Washington adopted more caution in building up military forces in the archipelago—a buildup linked to Taiwan conflict scenarios. A wider South China Sea agreement could encompass both joint resource development and reciprocal limits on military deployments. Likewise, diplomatic compromises could alleviate Korean Peninsula tensions. A new government in Seoul might favor working with Trump on fresh overtures to Pyongyang. American and Chinese diplomats could work together to end North Korea's direct participation in the Russia-Ukraine War, while jointly reassuring South Korea that it does not need to develop its own nuclear weapons. A successful Trump-Xi meeting would allow both superpowers to claim diplomatic wins, stave off armed confrontations, and most importantly, keep talking and solving problems. But waiting too long risks closing a golden window of opportunity and allows tensions to fester. If Trump acts now, while conditions are ripe, he could help secure American peace and prosperity for the 21st century and beyond.
Bloomberg
27-04-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
The US Is Already Losing the New Cold War to China
Of all today's crises and conflicts, the US-China rivalry will most fundamentally remake our world. A contest between the two top powers will shape the international system and the lives of people everywhere. At best, it will be a long, tense struggle — a 'New Cold War' — lasting many years. At worst, it could explode into nuclear catastrophe. For Americans, winning this competition will be the central challenge of our time. Beijing understands the stakes. For decades, it has been working to overtake the US as Asia's leading power. Its long-term goal, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has stated, is to make 'a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.' Since 2017, two different US presidents — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — have identified China as America's foremost rival. America's military, economy and government are being transformed by competition with Beijing. In a polarized country, anti-China policies are among the few measures that can still win broad, bipartisan support.
