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The Independent
5 days ago
- General
- The Independent
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says Russian planes destroyed in drone attack ahead of Istanbul peace talks
Dozens of Russian military aircraft have been destroyed in an unprecedented drone attack deep inside Russia, a Ukrainian official has said, the day before critical peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv resume in Istanbul. Codenamed 'spider web', first-person view (FPV) drones were smuggled deep inside Russian territory inside trucks, before they were unleashed on multiple Russian airfields destroying more than 40 warplanes, Ukrainian security officials said. Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the 'absolutely brilliant' operation which he said destroyed one third of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at air bases. Russia confirmed on Sunday that Ukraine had targeted military airfields across five regions on Sunday, causing several aircraft to catch fire - but claimed it had repelled most of the attacks. Vladimir Putin will be 'infuriated' by the 'unprecedented' attack if it is as damaging as Kyiv claims, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre John Lough told The Independent, describing it as a 'huge win' for Ukraine. The attack came one day before delegations from Moscow and Kyiv sit down for direct peace talks in Istanbul at 10am UK time (1pm local time) on Monday. Ukraine's delegation will be led by defence minister Rustem Umerov, Mr Zelensky said. Seven killed in bridge collapse and train derailment in Russia - ICYMI At least seven people were killed and 30 hospitalised after "illegal interference" caused a bridge to collapse and a train to derail in Russia's Bryansk region that borders Ukraine, Russian authorities said this morning. The train's locomotive and several cars derailed "due to the collapse of a span structure of the road bridge as a result of an illegal interference in the operation of transport," Russian Railways said on Telegram. Two children were among those hospitalised, one of them in a serious condition, according to Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of the Bryansk region. Among those killed was the locomotive driver, Russia's state news agencies reported, citing medics. Russia's ministry of emergency situations said its main efforts were aimed at finding and rescuing victims, and that some 180 personnel were involved in the operation. Russia's Baza Telegram channel, which often publishes information from sources in the security services and law enforcement, reported without providing evidence that the bridge was blown up. Since the start of the war that Russia launched more than three years ago, there have been continued cross-border shelling, drone strikes, and covert raids from Ukraine into the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions that border Ukraine. The train was going from the town of Klimovo to Moscow, Russian Railways said. It collided with the collapsed bridge in the area of a federal highway in the Vygonichskyi district of the Bryansk region. The district lies some 100km from the border with Ukraine. Alex Croft2 June 2025 00:15 Nato may be attacked by Russia in next four years, says German defence chief Nato should prepare for a possible attack from Russia within the next four years, Germany's chief of defence has told the BBC. Russia is producing hundreds of tanks per year, which could be used for an attack on Nato Baltic state members before 2029, General Carsten Breuer said. Nato is facing a 'very serious threat' which is more significant than General Breuer has seen in his four decades of service, he told the BBC at the Shangri-la Dialogue, a defence summit in Singapore. Russia is producing nearly 1,500 battle tanks per year, he added. "Not every single tank is going to [the war in] Ukraine, but it's also going in stocks and into new military structures always facing the West," he said. "There's an intent and there's a buildup of the stocks.' Alex Croft1 June 2025 23:30 Four killed in Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia as woman's home destroyed Russian shelling and an air attack killed four people in areas outside the southeastern Ukraine city of Zaporizhzhia, the regional governor said on Sunday. Ivan Fedorov, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said three women died in a series of Russian shelling incidents targeting the village of Ternuvate, east of Zaporizhzhia. A shop and several homes were badly damaged. A man died in a nearby district in a Russian strike by a guided aerial bomb, Fedorov said. A private home was destroyed. 1 June 2025 22:55 Drone attack destroyed one third of Russian strategic bombers, says Zelensky Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Ukraine's operation against Russian airfields struck one third of the strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at air bases. 'Today, a brilliant operation was carried out. The preparation took over a year and a half,' he wrote on X alongside his Sunday evening address. 'What's most interesting, is that the 'office' of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions. 'In total, 117 drones were used in the operation with a corresponding number of drone operators involved. 34% of the strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at air bases were hit. We will continue this work.' Alex Croft1 June 2025 22:50 Russia says it has captured Oleksiivka in Ukraine's Sumy region Russia's Defence Ministry has said Russian forces captured Oleksiivka in Ukraine's Sumy region. It comes a day after the ministry claimed its forces captured two villages in eastern Ukraine - Novopil in Donetsk region and Vodolagy in Sumy region. The Independent could not verify battlefield reports. Hundreds of villages are under evacuation orders in the region amid fears that Russia could launch a significant offensive from the northeast. Alex Croft1 June 2025 22:16 Recap | Ukraine says Russia launched biggest number of drones in 3-year war today Russia launched 472 drones at Ukraine overnight, Ukraine's air force said on Sunday, the highest nightly total of the war so far. The air force said in a statement that Russia had also launched seven missiles. It added that 382 of the drones were shot down or otherwise neutralised, along with three of the missiles. Russia has recently stepped up the amount of drones it launches at Ukraine in its regular nightly barrages. Alex Croft1 June 2025 21:49 Zelensky hails 'historic' attack on Russian warplanes Volodymyr Zelensky has hailed the 'absolutely brilliant' operation against Russian warplanes, saying it will 'undoubtedly be in [the[ history books'. 'A result achieved solely by Ukraine. One year, six months, and nine days from the start of planning to effective execution. Our most long-range operation,' Mr Zelensky said The Ukrainian agents involved in the operation were successfully extracted from Russian territory, he added. Appearing to refer to the fact that a limited number of videos have so far been released - with analysts saying they cannot independently verify Kyiv's claim that 41 planes were destroyed - Mr Zelensky said: 'I instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to inform the public about the details and results of the operation that can be disclosed. 'Of course, not everything can be revealed at this moment, but these are Ukrainian actions that will undoubtedly be in history books.' In a later post on X, Mr Zelensky claimed one third of Russian strategic cruise carriers were destroyed. 'In total, 117 drones were used in the operation with a corresponding number of drone operators involved. 34 per cent of the strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at air bases were hit. We will continue this work.' Alex Croft1 June 2025 21:30 Full report: Dozens of Russian warplanes destroyed in Ukrainian drone attack, claims Kyiv Dozens of Russian military aircraft have been destroyed in an unprecedented Ukrainian drone attack on military airfields deep inside Russia, Kyiv has said. The so-called 'Spider Web' operation, carried out by Ukraine's SBU security service, saw drones smuggled thousands of kilometres into Russian territory using lorries, before they were unleashed to destroy more than 40 warplanes, the SBU said. Vladimir Putin will be 'infuriated' by the 'unprecedented' attack if it is as damaging as Kyiv claims, Russia expert John Lough told The Independent, describing it as a 'huge win' for Ukraine that will boost morale within the military. Dozens of Russian warplanes destroyed in Ukrainian drone attack, claims Kyiv Putin will be 'infuriated' by the attack, a Russia expert said, which comes a day before Moscow and Kyiv sit down in Istanbul for direct peace talks Alex Croft1 June 2025 21:02 Senior Ukrainian military commander tenders resignation over lethal strike on training facility The commander of Ukraine's land forces, one of the most senior positions in the country's armed forces, announced on Sunday that he was tendering his resignation, citing a lethal strike on Ukrainian military training facility. Alex Croft1 June 2025 20:40 Ukraine to set out roadmap for peace at Istanbul talks, document shows Ukrainian negotiators will present to the Russian side a proposed roadmap for reaching a lasting peace settlement in Istanbul, according to a copy of the document seen by news agency Reuters. The proposed roadmap begins with a full ceasefire of at least 30 days, to be followed by the return of all prisoners held by each side, and of Ukrainian children taken into Russian-held territory, and then a meeting between Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Under the blueprint, Moscow and Kyiv – with the participation of the United States and Europe – will work to hash out the terms on which they can agree to put a complete end to their three-year-old war, the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two. Ukrainian officials said earlier this week that they had sent the blueprint to the Russian side in advance of the Istanbul talks.
Japan Today
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Today
U.S.-led effort to end war in Ukraine looks favorable to Russia, but mixed signals emerge
FILE - In this combination of file photos, President Donald Trump, left, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, are seen at the Elysee Palace, Dec. 7, 2024 in Paris, and President Vladimir Putin, right, addresses a Technology Forum in Moscow, Feb. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard, left and center, Pavel Bednyakov, right, File) By DASHA LITVINOVA The discussions have taken place in an ornate Kremlin hall, on the polished marble of St. Peter's Basilica and in a famously contentious session in the Oval Office of the White House. What's emerged so far from the Washington-led effort to end the war in Ukraine suggests a deal that seems likely to be favorable to Russia: President Donald Trump has sharply rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoed Kremlin talking points, and indicated Kyiv would have to surrender territory and forego NATO membership. What's more, he has engaged in a rapprochement with Moscow that was unthinkable months ago. More recently, Trump has offered mixed signals — social media posts that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is stringing him along — and a deal has yet to materialize. While the optics so far have been in the Kremlin's favor, no proposals that were put forth have been cemented. And on Wednesday, Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement granting American access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources that could enable continued military aid to the country under ongoing attacks from Russia. Zelenskyy said Thursday the deal was the first result of his 'truly historic' meeting with Trump at the Vatican before the funeral of Pope Francis. One gain for the Kremlin is that Washington is talking again to Moscow after years of extremely strained ties following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine — and not just about the war, said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank. Russian officials and state media from the very start of discussions with Trump's officials sought to underscore that Ukraine was only one item on the vast agenda of the 'two superpowers.' Trump and Putin talked in March about Ukraine but also the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic weapons and even organizing hockey games between the countries. Russia's main state TV channel reported that the meeting between Putin and Trump envoy Steve-Witkoff showed that Moscow and Washington were building 'a new structure of the world' together. In this sense, 'Putin already got a part of what he sought' — the optics of Russia as a country that is on par with the U.S., Petrov said. Trump has said Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, 'will stay with Russia,' and outlines of a peace proposal his team reportedly presented to Kyiv last month apparently included allowing Russia to keep control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a contentious meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, lashed out at him for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land, and also said that Kyiv was unlikely to ever join NATO. All of these reflect Moscow's long-held positions, and Trump's echoing of them suggested his administration's vision was aligned with the Kremlin's. Trump also seemingly puts more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow in trying to reach a peace deal and appears eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its 'big business opportunities," said Sam Greene of King's College London. 'Is there any part of this that doesn't look like a win for Russia? No,' Greene adds. But so far, all of this has remained nothing but rhetoric, with terms of a possible settlement still very much 'in the air,' says Sergey Radchenko, a historian and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Moreover, there are still demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be hard to reconcile in any kind of peace settlement. Ukraine refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees against future aggression, possibly involving a contingent of peacekeepers -– something a handful of European nations have been discussing and Russia publicly rejects as a nonstarter. Russia, in turn, demands that it holds onto the territory it has seized as well as no NATO membership for Ukraine. It also wants Kyiv to 'demilitarize,' or significantly reduce its armed force. Radchenko sees the latter as a major sticking point in peace talks, because a strong, viable army is important for Ukraine to defend itself. 'If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive (from the West) or the size of the army, then it will be very difficult to get them to accept this sort of agreement,' he said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemingly raised the stakes further this week by saying that international recognition of regions annexed from Ukraine by Russia was 'imperative' for a peace deal. Achieving that remains unclear, given that dozens of countries have decried the annexations as violating international law. Some analysts believe it is in Putin's interest to prolong the war and keep making gains on the battlefield. Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have threatened to wash their hands of the peace effort if there is no progress soon. Putin, in an apparent gesture of willingness to keep talking, announced this week a 72-hour ceasefire starting May 8 for Russia's Victory Day holiday that marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Zelenskyy dismissed the gesture as a further attempt by Putin at 'manipulation' to string along the U.S., saying a ceasefire should begin immediately and last longer. Greene noted that the Russian ruble and markets have been doing better recently over expectations of a peace deal and U.S. businesses and investors coming back, "and there may be a price to be paid' for pulling out the rug from under that. The larger question is what happens on the battlefield if the Trump administration withdraws from the peace effort. 'When the Trump administration says they'll walk away, we don't know what that means. Does that mean they walk away from negotiations and keep supporting Ukraine?' Greene said. Greene says that Ukraine probably doesn't feel confident that the U.S. stepping back from the process means that Washington will keep supporting Kyiv, adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration ending aid, either. 'I think it's very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of dragging this out,' he said. And U.S. Treasury Secretary Sctott Bessent said the mineral deal "signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.' A lot depends on whether Europe can step up and fill any gaps in U.S. aid. If Trump walks away from the peace effort and still pursues normalizing relations with Russia, lifting sanctions, 'this will amount to a major breakthrough' for Putin, but it's not a given, Radchenko says. That would be an uphill battle for Trump as 'there's a lot of congressional sanctions that are predicated on the war in Ukraine,' Greene notes. © Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
Chicago Tribune
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Chicago Tribune
A US-led effort to end the war in Ukraine looks favorable to Russia, but mixed signals emerge
TALLINN, Estonia — The discussions have taken place in an ornate Kremlin hall, on the polished marble of St. Peter's Basilica and in a famously contentious session in the Oval Office of the White House. What's emerged so far from the Washington-led effort to end the war in Ukraine suggests a deal that seems likely to be favorable to Russia: President Donald Trump has sharply rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoed Kremlin talking points, and indicated Kyiv would have to surrender territory and forego NATO membership. What's more, he has engaged in a rapprochement with Moscow that was unthinkable months ago. More recently, Trump has offered mixed signals — social media posts that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is stringing him along — and a deal has yet to materialize. While the optics so far have been in the Kremlin's favor, no proposals that were put forth have been cemented. And on Wednesday, Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement granting American access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources that could enable continued military aid to the country under ongoing attacks from Russia. Zelenskyy said Thursday the deal was the first result of his 'truly historic' meeting with Trump at the Vatican before the funeral of Pope Francis. Dialogue and aligned vision One gain for the Kremlin is that Washington is talking again to Moscow after years of extremely strained ties following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine — and not just about the war, said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank. Russian officials and state media from the very start of discussions with Trump's officials sought to underscore that Ukraine was only one item on the vast agenda of the 'two superpowers.' Trump and Putin talked in March about Ukraine but also the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic weapons and even organizing hockey games between the countries. Russia's main state TV channel reported that the meeting between Putin and Trump envoy Steve-Witkoff showed that Moscow and Washington were building 'a new structure of the world' together. In this sense, 'Putin already got a part of what he sought' — the optics of Russia as a country that is on par with the U.S., Petrov said. Trump has said Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, 'will stay with Russia,' and outlines of a peace proposal his team reportedly presented to Kyiv last month apparently included allowing Russia to keep control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a contentious meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, lashed out at him for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land, and also said that Kyiv was unlikely to ever join NATO. All of these have long been Moscow's talking points, and Trump's use of them suggested his administration's vision was aligned with the Kremlin's. Trump also seemingly puts more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow in trying to reach a peace deal and appears eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its 'big business opportunities,' said Sam Greene of King's College London. 'Is there any part of this that doesn't look like a win for Russia? No,' Greene adds. So far, it's only talk But so far, all of this has remained nothing but rhetoric, with terms of a possible settlement still very much 'in the air,' says Sergey Radchenko, a historian and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Moreover, there are still demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be hard to reconcile in any kind of peace settlement. Ukraine refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees against future aggression, possibly involving a contingent of peacekeepers -– something a handful of European nations have been discussing and Russia publicly rejects as a nonstarter. Russia, in turn, demands that it holds onto the territory it has seized as well as no NATO membership for Ukraine. It also wants Kyiv to 'demilitarize,' or significantly reduce its armed force. Radchenko sees the latter as a major sticking point in peace talks, because a strong, viable army is important for Ukraine to defend itself. 'If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive (from the West) or the size of the army, then it will be very difficult to get them to accept this sort of agreement,' he said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemingly raised the stakes further this week by saying that international recognition of regions annexed from Ukraine by Russia was 'imperative' for a peace deal. Achieving that remains unclear, given that dozens of countries have decried the annexations as violating international law. What if the US walks away? Some analysts believe it is in Putin's interest to prolong the war and keep making gains on the battlefield. Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have threatened to wash their hands of the peace effort if there is no progress soon. Putin, in an apparent gesture of willingness to keep talking, announced this week a 72-hour ceasefire starting May 8 for Russia's Victory Day holiday that marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Zelenskyy dismissed the gesture as a further attempt by Putin at 'manipulation' to string along the U.S., saying a ceasefire should begin immediately and last longer. Greene noted that the Russian ruble and markets have been doing better recently over expectations of a peace deal and U.S. businesses and investors coming back, 'and there may be a price to be paid' for pulling out the rug from under that. The larger question is what happens on the battlefield if the Trump administration withdraws from the peace effort. 'When the Trump administration says they'll walk away, we don't know what that means. Does that mean they walk away from negotiations and keep supporting Ukraine?' Greene said. Greene says that Ukraine probably doesn't feel confident that the U.S. stepping back from the process means that Washington will keep supporting Kyiv, adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration ending aid, either. 'I think it's very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of dragging this out,' he said. And U.S. Treasury Secretary Sctott Bessent said the mineral deal 'signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.' A lot depends on whether Europe can step up and fill any gaps in U.S. aid. If Trump walks away from the peace effort and still pursues normalizing relations with Russia, lifting sanctions, 'this will amount to a major breakthrough' for Putin, but it's not a given, Radchenko says. That would be an uphill battle for Trump as 'there's a lot of congressional sanctions that are predicated on the war in Ukraine,' Greene notes. Originally Published: May 2, 2025 at 7:32 AM CDT
Time of India
02-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US-led effort to end war in Ukraine looks favourable to Russia, but mixed signals emerge
Dialogue and aligned vision Live Events So far, it's only talk What if the US walks away? (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel The discussions have taken place in an ornate Kremlin hall, on the polished marble of St. Peter's Basilica and in a famously contentious session in the Oval Office of the White House. What's emerged so far from the Washington-led effort to end the war in Ukraine suggests a deal that seems likely to be favourable to Russia : President Donald Trump has sharply rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy , echoed Kremlin talking points, and indicated Kyiv would have to surrender territory and forego NATO membership. What's more, he has engaged in a rapprochement with Moscow that was unthinkable months recently, Trump has offered mixed signals - social media posts that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is stringing him along - and a deal has yet to the optics so far have been in the Kremlin's favour, no proposals that were put forth have been on Wednesday, Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement granting American access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources that could enable continued military aid to the country under ongoing attacks from gain for the Kremlin is that Washington is talking again to Moscow after years of extremely strained ties following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine - and not just about the war, said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think officials and state media from the very start of discussions with Trump's officials sought to underscore that Ukraine was only one item on the vast agenda of the "two superpowers." Trump and Putin talked in March about Ukraine but also the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic weapons and even organizing hockey games between the main state TV channel reported that the meeting between Putin and Trump envoy Steve-Witkoff showed that Moscow and Washington were building "a new structure of the world" this sense, "Putin already got a part of what he sought" - the optics of Russia as a country that is on par with the US, Petrov has said Crimea , the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, "will stay with Russia," and outlines of a peace proposal his team reportedly presented to Kyiv last month apparently included allowing Russia to keep control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a contentious meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, lashed out at him for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land, and also said that Kyiv was unlikely to ever join of these have long been Moscow's talking points, and Trump's use of them suggested his administration's vision was aligned with the Kremlin' also seemingly puts more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow in trying to reach a peace deal and appears eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its "big business opportunities," said Sam Greene of King's College London."Is there any part of this that doesn't look like a win for Russia? No," Greene so far, all of this has remained nothing but rhetoric, with terms of a possible settlement still very much "in the air," says Sergey Radchenko, a historian and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International there are still demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be hard to reconcile in any kind of peace refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees against future aggression, possibly involving a contingent of peacekeepers -- something a handful of European nations have been discussing and Russia publicly rejects as a in turn, demands that it holds onto the territory it has seized as well as no NATO membership for Ukraine. It also wants Kyiv to "demilitarise," or significantly reduce its armed sees the latter as a major sticking point in peace talks, because a strong, viable army is important for Ukraine to defend itself."If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive (from the West) or the size of the army, then it will be very difficult to get them to accept this sort of agreement," he Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemingly raised the stakes further this week by saying that international recognition of regions annexed from Ukraine by Russia was "imperative" for a peace that remains unclear, given that dozens of countries have decried the annexations as violating international analysts believe it is in Putin's interest to prolong the war and keep making gains on the Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have threatened to wash their hands of the peace effort if there is no progress in an apparent gesture of willingness to keep talking, announced this week a 72-hour ceasefire starting May 8 for Russia's Victory Day holiday that marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War dismissed the gesture as a further attempt by Putin at "manipulation" to string along the US, saying a ceasefire should begin immediately and last noted that the Russian rubble and markets have been doing better recently over expectations of a peace deal and US businesses and investors coming back, "and there may be a price to be paid" for pulling out the rug from under larger question is what happens on the battlefield if the Trump administration withdraws from the peace effort."When the Trump administration says they'll walk away, we don't know what that means. Does that mean they walk away from negotiations and keep supporting Ukraine?" Greene says that Ukraine probably doesn't feel confident that the US stepping back from the process means that Washington will keep supporting Kyiv, adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration ending aid, either."I think it's very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of dragging this out," he US Treasury Secretary Sctott Bessent said the mineral deal "signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term."A lot depends on whether Europe can step up and fill any gaps in US Trump walks away from the peace effort and still pursues normalising relations with Russia, lifting sanctions, "this will amount to a major breakthrough" for Putin, but it's not a given, Radchenko would be an uphill battle for Trump as "there's a lot of congressional sanctions that are predicated on the war in Ukraine," Greene notes.
Boston Globe
02-05-2025
- Business
- Boston Globe
A US-led effort to end the war in Ukraine looks favorable to Russia, but mixed signals emerge
Advertisement While the optics so far have been in the Kremlin's favor, no proposals that were put forth have been cemented. And on Wednesday, Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement granting American access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources that could enable continued military aid to the country under ongoing attacks from Russia. Dialogue and aligned vision One gain for the Kremlin is that Washington is talking again to Moscow after years of extremely strained ties following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine — and not just about the war, said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank. Russian officials and state media from the very start of discussions with Trump's officials sought to underscore that Ukraine was only one item on the vast agenda of the 'two superpowers.' Trump and Putin talked in March about Ukraine but also the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic weapons and even organizing hockey games between the countries. Advertisement Russia's main state TV channel reported that the meeting between Putin and Trump envoy Steve-Witkoff showed that Moscow and Washington were building 'a new structure of the world' together. In this sense, 'Putin already got a part of what he sought' — the optics of Russia as a country that is on par with the U.S., Petrov said. Trump has said Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, 'will stay with Russia,' and outlines of a peace proposal his team reportedly presented to Kyiv last month apparently included allowing Russia to keep control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a contentious meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, lashed out at him for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land, and also said that Kyiv was unlikely to ever join NATO. All of these have long been Moscow's talking points, and Trump's use of them suggested his administration's vision was aligned with the Kremlin's. Trump also seemingly puts more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow in trying to reach a peace deal and appears eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its 'big business opportunities,' said Sam Greene of King's College London. 'Is there any part of this that doesn't look like a win for Russia? No,' Greene adds. So far, it's only talk But so far, all of this has remained nothing but rhetoric, with terms of a possible settlement still very much 'in the air,' says Sergey Radchenko, a historian and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Advertisement Moreover, there are still demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be hard to reconcile in any kind of peace settlement. Ukraine refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees against future aggression, possibly involving a contingent of peacekeepers -– something a handful of European nations have been discussing and Russia publicly rejects as a nonstarter. Russia, in turn, demands that it holds onto the territory it has seized as well as no NATO membership for Ukraine. It also wants Kyiv to 'demilitarize,' or significantly reduce its armed force. Radchenko sees the latter as a major sticking point in peace talks, because a strong, viable army is important for Ukraine to defend itself. 'If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive (from the West) or the size of the army, then it will be very difficult to get them to accept this sort of agreement,' he said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemingly raised the stakes further this week by saying that international recognition of regions annexed from Ukraine by Russia was 'imperative' for a peace deal. Achieving that remains unclear, given that dozens of countries have decried the annexations as violating international law. What if the US walks away? Some analysts believe it is in Putin's interest to prolong the war and keep making gains on the battlefield. Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have threatened to wash their hands of the peace effort if there is no progress soon. Putin, in an apparent gesture of willingness to keep talking, announced this week a 72-hour ceasefire starting May 8 for Russia's Victory Day holiday that marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Advertisement Zelenskyy dismissed the gesture as a further attempt by Putin at 'manipulation' to string along the U.S., saying a ceasefire should begin immediately and last longer. Greene noted that the Russian ruble and markets have been doing better recently over expectations of a peace deal and U.S. businesses and investors coming back, 'and there may be a price to be paid' for pulling out the rug from under that. The larger question is what happens on the battlefield if the Trump administration withdraws from the peace effort. 'When the Trump administration says they'll walk away, we don't know what that means. Does that mean they walk away from negotiations and keep supporting Ukraine?' Greene said. Greene says that Ukraine probably doesn't feel confident that the U.S. stepping back from the process means that Washington will keep supporting Kyiv, adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration ending aid, either. 'I think it's very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of dragging this out,' he said. And U.S. Treasury Secretary Sctott Bessent said the mineral deal 'signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.' A lot depends on whether Europe can step up and fill any gaps in U.S. aid. If Trump walks away from the peace effort and still pursues normalizing relations with Russia, lifting sanctions, 'this will amount to a major breakthrough' for Putin, but it's not a given, Radchenko says. That would be an uphill battle for Trump as 'there's a lot of congressional sanctions that are predicated on the war in Ukraine,' Greene notes. Advertisement
