Latest news with #NewYorkFederalReserveBank
Business Post
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Post
O'Leary edges closer to €100m deal as Ryanair share price rises
Markets in Europe recovered from the sudden shock of Trump's tariff announcement... New research from the New York Federal Reserve Bank shows how job prospects for arts... The Iseq All Share closed out the start of the week in the green, rising 0.82 per... The former chief executive of Eirgrid has urged the government to 'immediately'... The European Union said it agreed to accelerate negotiations with the US to avoid... Sweden's Volvo Cars will cut 3,000 mostly white-collar jobs as part of a restructuring... The euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, earning the 20-nation bloc...
Business Post
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Post
Iseq closes in the green, bouyed by climbing Glenveagh shares
Markets in Europe recovered from the sudden shock of Trump's tariff announcement... New research from the New York Federal Reserve Bank shows how job prospects for arts... The Iseq All Share closed out the start of the week in the green, rising 0.82 per... The former chief executive of Eirgrid has urged the government to 'immediately'... The European Union said it agreed to accelerate negotiations with the US to avoid... Sweden's Volvo Cars will cut 3,000 mostly white-collar jobs as part of a restructuring... The euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, earning the 20-nation bloc...
Business Post
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Post
Euro could become the dollar's alternative, Lagarde says
New research from the New York Federal Reserve Bank shows how job prospects for arts... The Iseq All Share closed out the start of the week in the green, rising 0.82 per... The former chief executive of Eirgrid has urged the government to 'immediately'... The European Union said it agreed to accelerate negotiations with the US to avoid... Sweden's Volvo Cars will cut 3,000 mostly white-collar jobs as part of a restructuring... The euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, earning the 20-nation bloc... Taoiseach Micheál Martin has welcomed US President Donald Trump's move to extend...
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stagflation is America's most 'optimistic scenario' at this point, former Fed president says
Stagflation might be the best-case America can hope for amid Trump's tariffs, former Fed president Bill Dudley said. "More likely, the US will end up in a full-blown recession accompanied by higher inflation." Once painted as a worse-than-recession scenario, stagflation might now be the best that Americans can hope for with the trade war about to be in full swing. Bill Dudley, former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, says only one question remains: how bad will the damage be? Whereas a "Goldilocks economy" seemed alive and well at the start of this year, tariff policy has flipped the economic outlook in a matter of days. Writing in a Bloomberg opinion piece, Dudley said he expects devastating consequences from the White House's across-the-board tariffs. As dwindling demand derails US growth, 5% inflation is likely in the next six months, he said. Dudley added that a slowdown will occur even if Congress is able to implement tax cuts, "because there will be a considerable lag, and because low-to-moderate-income families, which tend to spend more of their income, will be hurt by tariffs more than helped by tax relief." Rising inflation in a cooling economy is the basis for stagflation. The scenario has no clear solution, making it a paralyzing situation for central banks. If central bankers raise interest rates to clamp down on inflation, they restrict economic growth. Cutting rates, meanwhile, could cause prices to spiral higher again. "All told, stagflation is the optimistic scenario. More likely, the US will end up in a full-blown recession accompanied by higher inflation," Dudley estimates. It's bound to be a no-win situation for stocks, he added. Since President Donald Trump announced the tariffs on Wednesday, indexes have tanked into bear market territory. "If companies pass along the cost of higher imports to consumers, inflation will be more persistent and the Fed less friendly. If they can't, profit margins will shrink and earnings will underwhelm. Not to mention the risk of foreign tariff retaliation." Of course, the Federal Reserve can hope the tariff inflation bump is temporary, an idea investors seem to agree with. Traders see the central cutting interest rates by 100 basis points through December, implying that growth will be the Fed's main concern. Dudley sees it differently. If Fed officials allow US inflation to remain above the 2% target rate — as has been the case for five years — it could amplify inflation expectations. Meanwhile, a tariff-induced productivity shock will historically impact inflation for longer, forcing the Fed to raise rates down the road. Others have taken the same stance. Rockefeller International Chair Ruchir Sharma warned that if the Fed chooses to stimulate growth with rate cuts, it would harm its reputation as a bulwark against inflation. "After missing its target for many years, it would be a mistake for the Fed to dismiss the inflation fallout from tariffs as transitory and revert once again to stimulating the economy," he wrote for the Financial Times. Not only might investors be wrong in expecting large-scale rate cuts this year, but one Wall Street heavy hitter warned that the Fed might tighten policy, instead. "This notion that the Federal Reserve is going to ease four times this year, I see zero chance of that. I'm much more worried that we could have elevated inflation that's going to bring rates up much higher than they are today," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Monday. Read the original article on Business Insider
Boston Globe
27-03-2025
- Automotive
- Boston Globe
How long until car prices go up? These brands are in the shortest supply.
How much sooner? That depends. Car dealers estimate inventory based on how many days it'll take to sell everything they've got. The industry research firm Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Car dealers might try to hike prices even before they start getting tariff-affected cars. But O'Koniewski said that nobody in the business wants to demand more money from cash-strapped consumers. 'I don't think there's any dealer that is happy with an added cost onto the car,' he said. Advertisement US consumers are already finding it harder to afford new cars. Financial services firm Experian says that in 2024, the average monthly payment for new cars reached $742 per month, compared to $576 per month in early 2020. Meanwhile, the New York Federal Reserve Bank says that in October 11.4 percent of car loan applicants were rejected. That's the highest rejection rate since the Fed began keeping track in 2013. How much will car prices rise? It's difficult to say. O'Koniewski said that 70 percent of cars sold in the commonwealth carry international nameplates. But that doesn't mean they're imported; half of all cars manufactured in the US carry foreign brands. That means these vehicles are shielded from the tariffs — but not entirely. They may still be subject to tariffs on foreign-made parts, such as engines and transmissions. Thus even made-in-US Hondas or Toyotas may get more expensive. The same goes for US brands stuffed with imported parts. Advertisement In addition, the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian vehicle imports won't go up until the Secretary of Commerce, figures out the percentage of non-US components in these cars, and applies the tariffs only to those parts. As a result, the impact of the tariffs on consumers won't be clear for some time. 'We have to see how that works its way through the retail digestive system,' said O'Koniewski. The Trump administration is betting that the higher tariffs will attract auto and auto parts manufacturers to the US. But O'Koniewski said that even if this happens, it'll take years. Meanwhile, tariff sticker shock is just weeks away. 'The end result is not a quick one,' he said. 'The immediate harm is.' Hiawatha Bray can be reached at
