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The Advertiser
3 days ago
- Business
- The Advertiser
The burning question about renewable energy
Every time a light is switched on in a farmhouse, or a dairy, or an abattoir, that electricity has arrived via a power line that runs across the paddocks of hundreds of farmers. It's a truth forgotten by some advocates for rural and regional Australia that we need power in the country, every bit as much as people need power in the cities. Australia is in the middle of shifting its power system from one fueled primarily by coal to one powered primarily by a mix of clean energy technologies and storage. Currently, around 40 per cent of our electricity is generated from renewable projects like wind, solar and hydro. By 2028, the time the next federal election rolls around, this will be closer to 60 per cent. If government plans are successful, by the election after that this number will be above 80 per cent. That shift is happening because coal plants are reaching the end of their lives and becoming increasingly unreliable. Nexa Advisory has been analysing the performance and reliability of Australia's remaining coal-fired power stations. Their work shows that coal has now become the greatest threat to the reliability of our energy supply. Yallourn in Victoria had unplanned outages for 32 per cent of the time in 2024, Callide B in Queensland was offline for 42 per cent of 2024 due to unplanned outages and maintenance, and each of Eraring's units in NSW experience an average of about two months of downtime annually - all of which pushes our bills higher. Throw in extraordinarily high prices for gas stoked by international conflict and supply issues, and we have a growing problem. To maintain a reliable, affordable power supply for all Australians - across the bush and from the cities to the coast - we urgently need to build infrastructure that replaces the coal and gas plants that have served us well in the past, but no longer can in the future. This is the plan that the majority of Australians voted for at the recent federal election. So the burning question now is, how can we do this in a way that works for rural and regional Australia? READ MORE: RE-Alliance has been working with regional communities at the centre of the shift to renewables for more than a decade. Our work with leaders across country Australia has shown us there is a real appetite for a seat at the table in shaping legacy benefits like better roads, housing infrastructure and energy discounts for entire postcodes. They also want to share local knowledge on where projects should be situated to work best for farmers, nature and communities. There are hundreds of councillors, council staff, leaders of community organisations, farmers and passionate locals who want to come together to get the best outcomes for their communities - we need to listen to them and get on with the job of making this once-in-a-generation change work for rural and regional Australia. Every time a light is switched on in a farmhouse, or a dairy, or an abattoir, that electricity has arrived via a power line that runs across the paddocks of hundreds of farmers. It's a truth forgotten by some advocates for rural and regional Australia that we need power in the country, every bit as much as people need power in the cities. Australia is in the middle of shifting its power system from one fueled primarily by coal to one powered primarily by a mix of clean energy technologies and storage. Currently, around 40 per cent of our electricity is generated from renewable projects like wind, solar and hydro. By 2028, the time the next federal election rolls around, this will be closer to 60 per cent. If government plans are successful, by the election after that this number will be above 80 per cent. That shift is happening because coal plants are reaching the end of their lives and becoming increasingly unreliable. Nexa Advisory has been analysing the performance and reliability of Australia's remaining coal-fired power stations. Their work shows that coal has now become the greatest threat to the reliability of our energy supply. Yallourn in Victoria had unplanned outages for 32 per cent of the time in 2024, Callide B in Queensland was offline for 42 per cent of 2024 due to unplanned outages and maintenance, and each of Eraring's units in NSW experience an average of about two months of downtime annually - all of which pushes our bills higher. Throw in extraordinarily high prices for gas stoked by international conflict and supply issues, and we have a growing problem. To maintain a reliable, affordable power supply for all Australians - across the bush and from the cities to the coast - we urgently need to build infrastructure that replaces the coal and gas plants that have served us well in the past, but no longer can in the future. This is the plan that the majority of Australians voted for at the recent federal election. So the burning question now is, how can we do this in a way that works for rural and regional Australia? READ MORE: RE-Alliance has been working with regional communities at the centre of the shift to renewables for more than a decade. Our work with leaders across country Australia has shown us there is a real appetite for a seat at the table in shaping legacy benefits like better roads, housing infrastructure and energy discounts for entire postcodes. They also want to share local knowledge on where projects should be situated to work best for farmers, nature and communities. There are hundreds of councillors, council staff, leaders of community organisations, farmers and passionate locals who want to come together to get the best outcomes for their communities - we need to listen to them and get on with the job of making this once-in-a-generation change work for rural and regional Australia. Every time a light is switched on in a farmhouse, or a dairy, or an abattoir, that electricity has arrived via a power line that runs across the paddocks of hundreds of farmers. It's a truth forgotten by some advocates for rural and regional Australia that we need power in the country, every bit as much as people need power in the cities. Australia is in the middle of shifting its power system from one fueled primarily by coal to one powered primarily by a mix of clean energy technologies and storage. Currently, around 40 per cent of our electricity is generated from renewable projects like wind, solar and hydro. By 2028, the time the next federal election rolls around, this will be closer to 60 per cent. If government plans are successful, by the election after that this number will be above 80 per cent. That shift is happening because coal plants are reaching the end of their lives and becoming increasingly unreliable. Nexa Advisory has been analysing the performance and reliability of Australia's remaining coal-fired power stations. Their work shows that coal has now become the greatest threat to the reliability of our energy supply. Yallourn in Victoria had unplanned outages for 32 per cent of the time in 2024, Callide B in Queensland was offline for 42 per cent of 2024 due to unplanned outages and maintenance, and each of Eraring's units in NSW experience an average of about two months of downtime annually - all of which pushes our bills higher. Throw in extraordinarily high prices for gas stoked by international conflict and supply issues, and we have a growing problem. To maintain a reliable, affordable power supply for all Australians - across the bush and from the cities to the coast - we urgently need to build infrastructure that replaces the coal and gas plants that have served us well in the past, but no longer can in the future. This is the plan that the majority of Australians voted for at the recent federal election. So the burning question now is, how can we do this in a way that works for rural and regional Australia? READ MORE: RE-Alliance has been working with regional communities at the centre of the shift to renewables for more than a decade. Our work with leaders across country Australia has shown us there is a real appetite for a seat at the table in shaping legacy benefits like better roads, housing infrastructure and energy discounts for entire postcodes. They also want to share local knowledge on where projects should be situated to work best for farmers, nature and communities. There are hundreds of councillors, council staff, leaders of community organisations, farmers and passionate locals who want to come together to get the best outcomes for their communities - we need to listen to them and get on with the job of making this once-in-a-generation change work for rural and regional Australia. Every time a light is switched on in a farmhouse, or a dairy, or an abattoir, that electricity has arrived via a power line that runs across the paddocks of hundreds of farmers. It's a truth forgotten by some advocates for rural and regional Australia that we need power in the country, every bit as much as people need power in the cities. Australia is in the middle of shifting its power system from one fueled primarily by coal to one powered primarily by a mix of clean energy technologies and storage. Currently, around 40 per cent of our electricity is generated from renewable projects like wind, solar and hydro. By 2028, the time the next federal election rolls around, this will be closer to 60 per cent. If government plans are successful, by the election after that this number will be above 80 per cent. That shift is happening because coal plants are reaching the end of their lives and becoming increasingly unreliable. Nexa Advisory has been analysing the performance and reliability of Australia's remaining coal-fired power stations. Their work shows that coal has now become the greatest threat to the reliability of our energy supply. Yallourn in Victoria had unplanned outages for 32 per cent of the time in 2024, Callide B in Queensland was offline for 42 per cent of 2024 due to unplanned outages and maintenance, and each of Eraring's units in NSW experience an average of about two months of downtime annually - all of which pushes our bills higher. Throw in extraordinarily high prices for gas stoked by international conflict and supply issues, and we have a growing problem. To maintain a reliable, affordable power supply for all Australians - across the bush and from the cities to the coast - we urgently need to build infrastructure that replaces the coal and gas plants that have served us well in the past, but no longer can in the future. This is the plan that the majority of Australians voted for at the recent federal election. So the burning question now is, how can we do this in a way that works for rural and regional Australia? READ MORE: RE-Alliance has been working with regional communities at the centre of the shift to renewables for more than a decade. Our work with leaders across country Australia has shown us there is a real appetite for a seat at the table in shaping legacy benefits like better roads, housing infrastructure and energy discounts for entire postcodes. They also want to share local knowledge on where projects should be situated to work best for farmers, nature and communities. There are hundreds of councillors, council staff, leaders of community organisations, farmers and passionate locals who want to come together to get the best outcomes for their communities - we need to listen to them and get on with the job of making this once-in-a-generation change work for rural and regional Australia.
The Advertiser
15-05-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
'Unsalvageable': power station suffering outages 32% of the time
Victoria's Yallourn coal-fired power station was grappling with unplanned outages for a third of 2024, a report has found. The study by clean energy consultants Nexa Advisory revealed at least one of Yallourn's four generators was unexpectedly offline 32 per cent of the time. The power station remains Victoria's second biggest source of power, providing nearly a quarter of the state's electricity. But safety and maintenance concerns since 2021 have raised questions over the plant's reliability, with owner EnergyAustralia forced to bring forward $400 million in repairs to keep the station operating until its planned closure in 2028. The report comes as the Victorian government plans to release its Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) - areas where wind and solar farms will be concentrated - which could be announced as soon as Friday, May 16. Nexa Advisory CEO Stephanie Bashir said the new report showed Yallourn was "unsalvageable" and the government had to be ready to replace its contribution to the grid within three years. "Right now, there is a one in three chance that there's an unplanned outage happening at Yallourn," Ms Bashir said. "Yallourn is beyond repair, and I wouldn't want to speak for the government, but I'd say that's not just our view. "Replacing that power by 2028 is in the government's hands, so the question is: are we progressing renewables quickly enough?" The Yallourn plant was originally supposed to close in 2032, but in 2021 the Victorian government and EnergyAustralia struck a deal to bring the closure forward to mid-2028. EnergyAustralia said the early closure was triggered by low wholesale energy prices and rising operational costs. The owner had to shut down and repair each of Yallourn's four generators in 2023 and 2024 at a cost of $400 million because the units kept crashing in 2022, causing costly energy shortfalls. But the Nexa Advisory report has revealed any benefits from this expensive repair were short lived, with unplanned outages hitting their highest ever point in 2024. Unplanned outages averaged 1400 hours since 2012, but in 2024 they tipped past 4000 hours. The power station has experienced increasing downtime - when generators are offline - over the past decade. Each unit has been offline for the equivalent of 12 weeks per year since 2020. "Yallourn is clearly limping to the end of its operational life," Ms Bashir said. "How much more taxpayer money should go towards these assets that are really too old to put further maintenance into?" The state government flatly denied reports in March 2025 it was considering keeping Yallourn open beyond 2025. Energy and Resources Minister Lily D'Ambrosio said the claims were "false" and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) had given no indication the plant would have to stay open to maintain the state grid. But AEMO has warned demand could outstrip supply in Victoria when Yallourn exits in 2028. Analysis by ACM - publisher of this masthead - also showed the government had a steep task to meet its 2035 emissions reduction target. Victoria has gone from 10 per cent renewables in 2014 to about 40 per cent in 2025 - so a 30 per cent increase over a decade. In order to get to 95 per cent it will have to jump a further 55 per cent in the next decade, which would mean adding renewables at double the rate it has so far. Ms Bashir said the renewables pipeline would have to accelerate. "That means streamlining planning and approvals, and ensuring projects don't get caught up in red tape," she said. "We don't have a lot of time to waste, we can't wait for the ideal plan on a map." The government's REZs will be the key to pushing through the backlog of renewable projects. ACM understands the zones - which have been in development since 2021 - will be announced within the week. The draft zones proposed in a February 2021 development plan covered large parts of regional Victoria, including: The zones will cover the areas surrounding Warrnambool, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga, Traralgon and Morwell. They will also include sweeping areas of high-intensity agricultural land, which has been a controversial part of the planning process. The government created a new entity, VicGrid, to oversee and manage the development of the REZs, and provided $540 million to invest in short term projects and pave the way for the new zones. "We established VicGrid to coordinate renewable energy planning, ensuring we build the right infrastructure in the right place, include local communities early in the planning process, and protect our energy, food and water security," a government spokesperson said. "We're also creating funds for communities that host Renewable Energy Zones so they can share in the benefits." Ms Bashir said there was no shortage of projects in the pipeline, but transmission was a looming issue. There has been huge community backlash to the major VNI West and Western Renewables Link transmission projects, with the cost of VNI West also jumping more than 20 per cent in the past couple of years. But even if they proceed, they won't be finished until long after Yallourn has closed. "That's why we are calling for increased large-scale batteries to bolster the capacity of the current transmission, as well as government support for private intra-regional transmission," Ms Bashir said. She said the government needed to pull every lever it had. "We really need a more radical approach if we are going to keep the lights on," she said. Victoria's Yallourn coal-fired power station was grappling with unplanned outages for a third of 2024, a report has found. The study by clean energy consultants Nexa Advisory revealed at least one of Yallourn's four generators was unexpectedly offline 32 per cent of the time. The power station remains Victoria's second biggest source of power, providing nearly a quarter of the state's electricity. But safety and maintenance concerns since 2021 have raised questions over the plant's reliability, with owner EnergyAustralia forced to bring forward $400 million in repairs to keep the station operating until its planned closure in 2028. The report comes as the Victorian government plans to release its Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) - areas where wind and solar farms will be concentrated - which could be announced as soon as Friday, May 16. Nexa Advisory CEO Stephanie Bashir said the new report showed Yallourn was "unsalvageable" and the government had to be ready to replace its contribution to the grid within three years. "Right now, there is a one in three chance that there's an unplanned outage happening at Yallourn," Ms Bashir said. "Yallourn is beyond repair, and I wouldn't want to speak for the government, but I'd say that's not just our view. "Replacing that power by 2028 is in the government's hands, so the question is: are we progressing renewables quickly enough?" The Yallourn plant was originally supposed to close in 2032, but in 2021 the Victorian government and EnergyAustralia struck a deal to bring the closure forward to mid-2028. EnergyAustralia said the early closure was triggered by low wholesale energy prices and rising operational costs. The owner had to shut down and repair each of Yallourn's four generators in 2023 and 2024 at a cost of $400 million because the units kept crashing in 2022, causing costly energy shortfalls. But the Nexa Advisory report has revealed any benefits from this expensive repair were short lived, with unplanned outages hitting their highest ever point in 2024. Unplanned outages averaged 1400 hours since 2012, but in 2024 they tipped past 4000 hours. The power station has experienced increasing downtime - when generators are offline - over the past decade. Each unit has been offline for the equivalent of 12 weeks per year since 2020. "Yallourn is clearly limping to the end of its operational life," Ms Bashir said. "How much more taxpayer money should go towards these assets that are really too old to put further maintenance into?" The state government flatly denied reports in March 2025 it was considering keeping Yallourn open beyond 2025. Energy and Resources Minister Lily D'Ambrosio said the claims were "false" and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) had given no indication the plant would have to stay open to maintain the state grid. But AEMO has warned demand could outstrip supply in Victoria when Yallourn exits in 2028. Analysis by ACM - publisher of this masthead - also showed the government had a steep task to meet its 2035 emissions reduction target. Victoria has gone from 10 per cent renewables in 2014 to about 40 per cent in 2025 - so a 30 per cent increase over a decade. In order to get to 95 per cent it will have to jump a further 55 per cent in the next decade, which would mean adding renewables at double the rate it has so far. Ms Bashir said the renewables pipeline would have to accelerate. "That means streamlining planning and approvals, and ensuring projects don't get caught up in red tape," she said. "We don't have a lot of time to waste, we can't wait for the ideal plan on a map." The government's REZs will be the key to pushing through the backlog of renewable projects. ACM understands the zones - which have been in development since 2021 - will be announced within the week. The draft zones proposed in a February 2021 development plan covered large parts of regional Victoria, including: The zones will cover the areas surrounding Warrnambool, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga, Traralgon and Morwell. They will also include sweeping areas of high-intensity agricultural land, which has been a controversial part of the planning process. The government created a new entity, VicGrid, to oversee and manage the development of the REZs, and provided $540 million to invest in short term projects and pave the way for the new zones. "We established VicGrid to coordinate renewable energy planning, ensuring we build the right infrastructure in the right place, include local communities early in the planning process, and protect our energy, food and water security," a government spokesperson said. "We're also creating funds for communities that host Renewable Energy Zones so they can share in the benefits." Ms Bashir said there was no shortage of projects in the pipeline, but transmission was a looming issue. There has been huge community backlash to the major VNI West and Western Renewables Link transmission projects, with the cost of VNI West also jumping more than 20 per cent in the past couple of years. But even if they proceed, they won't be finished until long after Yallourn has closed. "That's why we are calling for increased large-scale batteries to bolster the capacity of the current transmission, as well as government support for private intra-regional transmission," Ms Bashir said. She said the government needed to pull every lever it had. "We really need a more radical approach if we are going to keep the lights on," she said. Victoria's Yallourn coal-fired power station was grappling with unplanned outages for a third of 2024, a report has found. The study by clean energy consultants Nexa Advisory revealed at least one of Yallourn's four generators was unexpectedly offline 32 per cent of the time. The power station remains Victoria's second biggest source of power, providing nearly a quarter of the state's electricity. But safety and maintenance concerns since 2021 have raised questions over the plant's reliability, with owner EnergyAustralia forced to bring forward $400 million in repairs to keep the station operating until its planned closure in 2028. The report comes as the Victorian government plans to release its Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) - areas where wind and solar farms will be concentrated - which could be announced as soon as Friday, May 16. Nexa Advisory CEO Stephanie Bashir said the new report showed Yallourn was "unsalvageable" and the government had to be ready to replace its contribution to the grid within three years. "Right now, there is a one in three chance that there's an unplanned outage happening at Yallourn," Ms Bashir said. "Yallourn is beyond repair, and I wouldn't want to speak for the government, but I'd say that's not just our view. "Replacing that power by 2028 is in the government's hands, so the question is: are we progressing renewables quickly enough?" The Yallourn plant was originally supposed to close in 2032, but in 2021 the Victorian government and EnergyAustralia struck a deal to bring the closure forward to mid-2028. EnergyAustralia said the early closure was triggered by low wholesale energy prices and rising operational costs. The owner had to shut down and repair each of Yallourn's four generators in 2023 and 2024 at a cost of $400 million because the units kept crashing in 2022, causing costly energy shortfalls. But the Nexa Advisory report has revealed any benefits from this expensive repair were short lived, with unplanned outages hitting their highest ever point in 2024. Unplanned outages averaged 1400 hours since 2012, but in 2024 they tipped past 4000 hours. The power station has experienced increasing downtime - when generators are offline - over the past decade. Each unit has been offline for the equivalent of 12 weeks per year since 2020. "Yallourn is clearly limping to the end of its operational life," Ms Bashir said. "How much more taxpayer money should go towards these assets that are really too old to put further maintenance into?" The state government flatly denied reports in March 2025 it was considering keeping Yallourn open beyond 2025. Energy and Resources Minister Lily D'Ambrosio said the claims were "false" and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) had given no indication the plant would have to stay open to maintain the state grid. But AEMO has warned demand could outstrip supply in Victoria when Yallourn exits in 2028. Analysis by ACM - publisher of this masthead - also showed the government had a steep task to meet its 2035 emissions reduction target. Victoria has gone from 10 per cent renewables in 2014 to about 40 per cent in 2025 - so a 30 per cent increase over a decade. In order to get to 95 per cent it will have to jump a further 55 per cent in the next decade, which would mean adding renewables at double the rate it has so far. Ms Bashir said the renewables pipeline would have to accelerate. "That means streamlining planning and approvals, and ensuring projects don't get caught up in red tape," she said. "We don't have a lot of time to waste, we can't wait for the ideal plan on a map." The government's REZs will be the key to pushing through the backlog of renewable projects. ACM understands the zones - which have been in development since 2021 - will be announced within the week. The draft zones proposed in a February 2021 development plan covered large parts of regional Victoria, including: The zones will cover the areas surrounding Warrnambool, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga, Traralgon and Morwell. They will also include sweeping areas of high-intensity agricultural land, which has been a controversial part of the planning process. The government created a new entity, VicGrid, to oversee and manage the development of the REZs, and provided $540 million to invest in short term projects and pave the way for the new zones. "We established VicGrid to coordinate renewable energy planning, ensuring we build the right infrastructure in the right place, include local communities early in the planning process, and protect our energy, food and water security," a government spokesperson said. "We're also creating funds for communities that host Renewable Energy Zones so they can share in the benefits." Ms Bashir said there was no shortage of projects in the pipeline, but transmission was a looming issue. There has been huge community backlash to the major VNI West and Western Renewables Link transmission projects, with the cost of VNI West also jumping more than 20 per cent in the past couple of years. But even if they proceed, they won't be finished until long after Yallourn has closed. "That's why we are calling for increased large-scale batteries to bolster the capacity of the current transmission, as well as government support for private intra-regional transmission," Ms Bashir said. She said the government needed to pull every lever it had. "We really need a more radical approach if we are going to keep the lights on," she said. Victoria's Yallourn coal-fired power station was grappling with unplanned outages for a third of 2024, a report has found. The study by clean energy consultants Nexa Advisory revealed at least one of Yallourn's four generators was unexpectedly offline 32 per cent of the time. The power station remains Victoria's second biggest source of power, providing nearly a quarter of the state's electricity. But safety and maintenance concerns since 2021 have raised questions over the plant's reliability, with owner EnergyAustralia forced to bring forward $400 million in repairs to keep the station operating until its planned closure in 2028. The report comes as the Victorian government plans to release its Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) - areas where wind and solar farms will be concentrated - which could be announced as soon as Friday, May 16. Nexa Advisory CEO Stephanie Bashir said the new report showed Yallourn was "unsalvageable" and the government had to be ready to replace its contribution to the grid within three years. "Right now, there is a one in three chance that there's an unplanned outage happening at Yallourn," Ms Bashir said. "Yallourn is beyond repair, and I wouldn't want to speak for the government, but I'd say that's not just our view. "Replacing that power by 2028 is in the government's hands, so the question is: are we progressing renewables quickly enough?" The Yallourn plant was originally supposed to close in 2032, but in 2021 the Victorian government and EnergyAustralia struck a deal to bring the closure forward to mid-2028. EnergyAustralia said the early closure was triggered by low wholesale energy prices and rising operational costs. The owner had to shut down and repair each of Yallourn's four generators in 2023 and 2024 at a cost of $400 million because the units kept crashing in 2022, causing costly energy shortfalls. But the Nexa Advisory report has revealed any benefits from this expensive repair were short lived, with unplanned outages hitting their highest ever point in 2024. Unplanned outages averaged 1400 hours since 2012, but in 2024 they tipped past 4000 hours. The power station has experienced increasing downtime - when generators are offline - over the past decade. Each unit has been offline for the equivalent of 12 weeks per year since 2020. "Yallourn is clearly limping to the end of its operational life," Ms Bashir said. "How much more taxpayer money should go towards these assets that are really too old to put further maintenance into?" The state government flatly denied reports in March 2025 it was considering keeping Yallourn open beyond 2025. Energy and Resources Minister Lily D'Ambrosio said the claims were "false" and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) had given no indication the plant would have to stay open to maintain the state grid. But AEMO has warned demand could outstrip supply in Victoria when Yallourn exits in 2028. Analysis by ACM - publisher of this masthead - also showed the government had a steep task to meet its 2035 emissions reduction target. Victoria has gone from 10 per cent renewables in 2014 to about 40 per cent in 2025 - so a 30 per cent increase over a decade. In order to get to 95 per cent it will have to jump a further 55 per cent in the next decade, which would mean adding renewables at double the rate it has so far. Ms Bashir said the renewables pipeline would have to accelerate. "That means streamlining planning and approvals, and ensuring projects don't get caught up in red tape," she said. "We don't have a lot of time to waste, we can't wait for the ideal plan on a map." The government's REZs will be the key to pushing through the backlog of renewable projects. ACM understands the zones - which have been in development since 2021 - will be announced within the week. The draft zones proposed in a February 2021 development plan covered large parts of regional Victoria, including: The zones will cover the areas surrounding Warrnambool, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga, Traralgon and Morwell. They will also include sweeping areas of high-intensity agricultural land, which has been a controversial part of the planning process. The government created a new entity, VicGrid, to oversee and manage the development of the REZs, and provided $540 million to invest in short term projects and pave the way for the new zones. "We established VicGrid to coordinate renewable energy planning, ensuring we build the right infrastructure in the right place, include local communities early in the planning process, and protect our energy, food and water security," a government spokesperson said. "We're also creating funds for communities that host Renewable Energy Zones so they can share in the benefits." Ms Bashir said there was no shortage of projects in the pipeline, but transmission was a looming issue. There has been huge community backlash to the major VNI West and Western Renewables Link transmission projects, with the cost of VNI West also jumping more than 20 per cent in the past couple of years. But even if they proceed, they won't be finished until long after Yallourn has closed. "That's why we are calling for increased large-scale batteries to bolster the capacity of the current transmission, as well as government support for private intra-regional transmission," Ms Bashir said. She said the government needed to pull every lever it had. "We really need a more radical approach if we are going to keep the lights on," she said.
The Guardian
28-03-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Coalition's gas plan unlikely to lower prices and could push up greenhouse gas emissions, experts say
Energy experts have expressed doubts the Coalition's plans to force gas producers to sell more of the fossil fuel domestically could bring down prices or ease supply pressures, saying the move could also push up greenhouse gas emissions. In his budget-reply speech, delivered only 12 hours before Anthony Albanese announced a federal election for 3 May, the Coalition leader, Peter Dutton, said that, if elected, his government would deliver an 'east coast gas reservation'. Dutton said 'between 50-100 petajoules' of gas destined for export markets would instead be 'delivered to the domestic market' and this would bring prices down from $14 per gigajoule to $10. He later told the ABC this price drop could be achieved by the end of this year. But experts were frustrated at the lack of detail on how a Coalition government could implement such a plan. 'What was announced by the Coalition is not policy – it's lines in a speech,' said Stephanie Bashir, chief executive of energy analysts Nexa Advisory, who said a 'well-considered and permanent gas reservation policy' had long been needed. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email According to the Australian Energy Market Operator, seasonal shortfalls in gas supply for the southern states could occur by 2028 'with annual supply gaps emerging from 2029'. Australian Energy Producers, the body representing the gas industry, said Dutton's plan to 'artificially reduce prices' was a 'damaging market intervention that will drive away investment and exacerbate the supply challenges in the longer term'. Tony Wood, the director of the Grattan Institute's energy program, who has previously worked in the gas industry, said there was still very little detail on how the Coalition might simultaneously force more gas into the domestic market and push the price down. 'That's a huge intervention in the market,' he said, adding if the Coalition's proposals slowed the move to renewables, emissions would rise. The Guardian asked the Coalition for more detail on how it planned to divert gas to the domestic market and if it was planning to place restrictions on LNG exports, but did not get a reply before deadline. Currently, LNG companies can opportunistically sell gas not tied to long-term contracts in spot markets internationally or domestically. The Coalition has said that, if elected, it wants to increase the use of gas and keep coal plants running for longer while it builds taxpayer-funded nuclear reactors. Gas has been identified by the electricity industry as an important back-stop to cover times when renewable energy generation is low. But gas is one of the most expensive forms of electricity on the market. Tristan Edis, a director and analyst at Green Energy Markets, said even if gas prices did fall to $10 a gigajoule, 'it still leaves us with expensive electricity if we are going to significantly increase our reliance on gas'. 'Coal power plants typically have a fuel cost that is half that level, so if they are replaced with gas instead of renewables, then power prices will go up,' he said. He said a new gas-fired power plant would need to charge about $170 per MW-hour to recover its costs if gas cost $10 per gigajoule. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion 'By comparison CSIRO estimates that wind and solar generation costs will be between $40 to $80 per MW-hour,' said Edis. Joshua Runciman, lead analyst for Australian gas at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said diverting LNG exports to domestic markets was the quickest way to materially increase domestic supply. But he said exporters could respond by ramping down investments in production that could mean 'there might not be much spare gas'. The Coalition's plans to burn more coal and gas while it waits for taxpayer-funded nuclear reactors is likely to see less renewable energy enter the grid. If pro-gas moves slowed renewables even further, this would risk higher electricity costs, Runciman said. In his speech on Thursday, Dutton said a Coalition government would also scrap the $20bn Rewiring the Nation fund to finance electricity grid upgrades and major transmission projects such as new transmission lines and towers. Bashir said without a replacement, losing the fund would slow the transition away from fossil fuels to renewables. Nexa's own modelling had shown that delays in building new transmission infrastructure would push up power prices, reduce reliability and force higher use of more expensive gas for electricity. Bashir said: 'Gas is a transition and peaking fuel. It is unequivocally more expensive than renewables and batteries.'
