2 days ago
A short history of long ballots in Virginia
Voters in suburban Henrico's Short Pump precinct cast their ballots in 2018. (Photo by Ned Oliver/Virginia Mercury)
With six candidates on the ballot, the June 17 Democratic contest for lieutenant governor is the second most-crowded statewide primary in modern Virginia history.
If history is any guide, a congested primary can generate uncertainty and makes it possible that someone can claim the nomination with considerably less than a majority of votes cast.
Here's a quick review of five statewide primaries since 1997 where the nominee won less than 40%. The races are listed in chronological order.
Political newcomer Gil Davis made a splash by representing a former Arkansas state employee who filed a sexual harassment claim against then-President Bill Clinton. A week before the primary, state Sen. Ken Stolle released a TV ad attacking Davis, who was shown, drink in hand, talking to a client about her desire to pose naked in Playboy magazine. As it turned out, Stolle should have saved his fire for his Senate colleague, Mark Earley of Chesapeake. The party's ascendent anti-abortion base carried Earley to victory in a four-way race. Davis finished last.
Mark Earley 35.8%
Jerry Kilgore 24.6%
Ken Stolle 20.8%
Gilbert Davis 18.8%
Source: Virginia Department of Elections Database
In the 1997 general election, Republicans rode gubernatorial candidate Jim Gilmore's 'No Car Tax!' slogan to their first-ever trifecta of statewide offices. In the attorney general race, Earley captured 57.5% of the vote to defeat Democrat Bill Dolan.
With a quiet second place finish in the GOP primary, Jerry Kilgore of Scott County in far Southwest Virginia put himself in line to become the party's consensus attorney general choice in 2001. Gil Davis never ran for office again, but one of his law associates, Bill Stanley, won a special election to the state Senate in January 2011.
In the second year after the millennium, the candidates with the best name ID were two members of the House of Delegates. Alan Diamonstein, at 69, was part of the party's old guard that had just lost its majority in the House of Delegates. Jerrauld Jones was a skilled lawmaker who headed the Legislative Black Caucus. Richmond Mayor Tim Kaine, with his yard signs an unusual green and yellow, was only one year younger than Jones, but presented himself as a new generation of Democratic leadership. Kaine, the son-in-law of former Republican Gov. Linwood Holton, rang up big majorities in the Richmond area.
Tim Kaine 39.7%
Alan Diamonstein 31.4%
Jerrauld Jones 28.9%
Source: Virginia Department of Elections Database
In the general election, Kaine landed just north of a majority (50.3%) in a three-way race against little-known Republican legislator Jay Katzen (48.1%) and Libertarian Party candidate Gary Reams (1.6%). Many Democrats had expected Charlottesville state Sen. Emily Couric to be their nominee. But Couric — a rising star who was as telegenic as her sister, Katie, the Today Show host — withdrew in July 2020 after a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Emily Couric died three weeks before Election Day.
It's hard to imagine a statewide Democratic primary where the populous suburbs of Northern Virginia do not play the kingmaker. But that is essentially what happened in June 2001, when Democrats went to the polls to select nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general. Without a single candidate from Northern Virginia, turnout was driven by candidates from Richmond and Tidewater. In the lieutenant governor's race, twice as many votes were cast in Henrico County (7,528) than in Loudoun and Prince William combined (3,012).
Downstate candidates — state Del. Whitt Clement of Danville and state Sen. John Edwards of Roanoke — put up dazzling favorite-son margins in their respective home bases, but the turnout worked to the advantage of Donald McEachin, a state legislator from Henrico who won majorities in core urban cities like Richmond, Hampton and Newport News.
Donald McEachin 33.6%
John Edwards 29.5%
Whitt Clement 26.9%
Sylvia Clute 10.0%
Source: Virginia Department of Elections Database
In the general election, McEachin lost his bid to become the first Black attorney general in Virginia history. McEachin's social justice agenda was ignored by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Warner, who ran a centrist campaign with crossover appeal to gun-loving, NASCAR-crazy rural Virginia. McEachin managed only 39.9% of the vote, falling below Mary Sue Terry's previous record for the all-time worst performance by a Democrat in a statewide general election.
From the standpoint of geography and ideology, the four candidates who sought the lieutenant governor nomination in 2005 seemed handpicked to splinter the state's Democratic coalition. Leslie Byrne and Chap Petersen were from Northern Virginia, Viola Baskerville was from Richmond and Philip Puckett was from Southwest Virginia.
They ran the gamut from unabashed liberal (Byrne), diligent policy wonk (Baskerville), contrarian (Petersen) and conservative (Puckett). None were slouches; all were legislators who could point to achievements. In the end, party loyalists opted for Byrne, a familiar name who had served in both chambers of the state legislature and one term in the U.S. House, making her the first woman from Virginia to serve in Congress.
Leslie Byrne 32.9%
Viola Baskerville 26.1%
Chap Petersen 21.7%
Philip Puckett 19.4%
Source: Virginia Department of Elections Database
In the general election, Republicans nominated state Sen. Bill Bolling of Hanover County and figured they would make quick work of Byrne, arguably the most left-leaning statewide Democrat nominated since populist Henry Howell in the 1970s. Even though Bolling held a 2-to-1 ratio fundraising advantage, Byrne made it a close race. The final tally was Bolling 50.1%, Byrne 49.3%.
This wide-open race with eight candidates — a record number for a statewide primary — narrowed in late April when then-Gov. Ralph Northam endorsed Hala Ayala. She was a little-known state legislator from Prince William County who had been swept into the House of Delegates as part of a massive anti-Trump backlash in 2017. Her story of financial struggle as a woman of color who lacked health care when her first child was born resonated with party faithful still celebrating Medicaid expansion in Virginia. Her multiethnic lineage (a father with Northern African roots who emigrated from El Salvador and a mother who was Irish and Lebanese) offered something for an increasingly diverse Virginia electorate.
Hala Ayala 37.6%
Sam Rasoul 24.3%
Mark Levine 11.2%
Andria McClellan 10.6%
Sean Perryman 8.1%
Xavier Warren 4.1%
Elizabeth Guzman* 4.1%
*Withdrew from race, but her name appeared on the ballot
Source: Virginia Department of Elections Database
The general election was a historic one in which Virginia would elect its first female lieutenant governor – and the first woman of color. The GOP nominated Winsome Sears, a native of Jamaica who emigrated as a child to the United States with her family. Sears won 50.7% of the vote as part of a GOP sweep of the three statewide offices. Also of note: Democratic Del. Mark Levine took the risky path of running in two primaries on the same day – one for lieutenant governor and the other to retain the party's nomination for his legislative seat in Alexandria. He lost both.
