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Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Thailand and Indonesia could be growth laggards in Asean: Nomura
[SINGAPORE] Thailand and Indonesia are expected to be growth laggards within Asean, noted Euben Paracuelles, chief Asean economist at Nomura at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia press conference held at The Ritz-Carlton, Millenia Singapore on Tuesday (Jun 3). In the case of Thailand, he pointed to the 36 per cent tariff threat it faces from the US, unless it is able to negotiate for a reduction by the end of July. 'Thailand is among the countries with the highest exposure to the tariffs.' Another reason is the tight lending policy of the banks in Thailand, Paracuelles added, citing the negative loan-growth figures in the country over the past few months. Comparing the country's economy against those of Singapore and Malaysia from a domestic demand perspective, he noted that Thailand has a relatively weak 'starting point'. 'You also have structural issues in Thailand, such as ageing and high household debts,' he elaborated. Currently, Thailand has one of the highest household debt levels in Asia, standing at 88.4 per cent of gross domestic product. In addition, the proportion of its population aged 65 and above is set to reach 22.8 per cent by 2035. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up 'I'll emphasise that Thailand is going to be running negative inflation. We think the risk in Thailand could become a bit more entrenched.' In April, Moody's Ratings changed its outlook for the country's economy from 'stable' to 'negative'. Paracuelles added: 'We think it would be very difficult for Thailand to avoid an actual downgrade in the rating within the next six to 12 months again, because of the need to provide fiscal stimulus and borrow, which will result in debt levels going up even more.' Another country singled out by Paracuelles was Indonesia. 'In the growth spectrum, Indonesia is amongst the underperformers for us,' he said, citing Nomura's growth forecast of 4.7 per cent for the country this year. He said that Indonesia is challenged by poor consumer sentiment, weak labour markets, and factory closures because of competition with imports from China. 'You've got the central bank that's not been able to cut rates as much as it likes because of currency constraints in the past several months,' he added. 'I don't think these things will reverse very quickly if (the economy) drags. It will require the government to step in a bit more, and we're starting to see that.' He noted that the Indonesian government has announced stimulus packages, as well as other initiatives such as the free meals programme. 'There are no corresponding revenues to pay for these programmes,' he said. He emphasised that unless the government finds the revenue elsewhere, it risks growing the country's deficit. 'It is a tough balancing act.' More resilient On the other hand, Paracuelles was optimistic about the economic outlook for Singapore and Malaysia. 'Singapore could do well in this environment because we think it has a lot of fiscal firepower after the election.' He elaborated that Nomura expects the city-state to provide support measures to the job markets if the external condition deteriorates. 'We think unemployment rates in Singapore will not rise as sharply as you would expect in this kind of environment.' Paracuelles also believes that central banks around Asean will decouple from the US Federal Reserve's interest rates. 'They will keep cutting rates, either because inflation is very low or below target, or to provide their currency with some flexibility to provide some accommodation,' he said. Paracuelles singled out Malaysia as an exception, and expects Bank Negaru Malaysia to keep the policy rate stable. 'Malaysia's domestic economy is actually quite resilient. There is a lot of investment growth that is happening, and that is providing the offset to weakness in exports.'
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's Dealmaking Style Won't Sway Xi, Ex-White House Aide Says
(Bloomberg) -- A potential trade deal between the world's top two economies hinges on Donald Trump and Xi Jinping overcoming core differences in their negotiation styles, former acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said. Where the Wild Children's Museums Are Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move At London's New Design Museum, Visitors Get Hands-On Access LA City Council Passes Budget That Trims Police, Fire Spending 'There's a fundamental disconnect here,' Mulvaney told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. 'Trump wants to talk at the very highest levels. That's not always how the Chinese want to do business.' Mulvaney's comments highlight a potential hurdle to a call between the leaders that the White House said is likely this week. Such direct contact could potentially ease tensions that have surged over access to chips and rare earths after earlier talks secured a 90-day reprieve for drastic tariffs. Mulvaney, who also served as Trump's budget director during his first term, said his former boss favors direct communications with the principal in business or politics alike. That approach, however, contrasts with the usual practice of the Chinese leader, who prefers that advisers iron out key issues beforehand. 'I do not see them being able to pull off a deal the old-fashioned way, which is going through the back channels,' Mulvaney said, speaking on the sidelines of the Nomura Investment Forum Asia in Singapore. 'And I think it'd be very difficult to do a deal going the Trump way, which is only Xi to Trump man-to-man.' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Monday the presidents are likely to speak this week, without giving a date for the 'potential' call. China's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on a possible call. Hua Chunying, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, said on Tuesday at an event at the Italian embassy in Beijing that China is always open to talks, but reiterated that Washington needs to show sincerity. Mulvaney replaced John Kelly as chief of staff during the first Trump administration but was never formally named to the role, serving over a year in an acting capacity. The former South Carolina congressman was also in charge of the Office of Management and Budget from 2017 to 2020. He said he believes that the US and China can find a way to co-exist, provided that Beijing takes steps to become what he called a 'leading nation of the world.' 'They can't steal people's intellectual property. They can't force you into bad deals in order to do business in your country. They can't hide information when they deal with pandemics, like they did with Covid-19,' he said. 'First-tier nations of the world don't do that. China's going to be become a first-tier nation. They need to step up their game.' --With assistance from Naman Tandon. (Updates with Hua's comments in seventh paragraph) YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's Dealmaking Style Won't Sway Xi, Ex-White House Aide Says
(Bloomberg) -- A potential trade deal between the world's top two economies hinges on Donald Trump and Xi Jinping overcoming core differences in their negotiation styles, former acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said. Where the Wild Children's Museums Are Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move At London's New Design Museum, Visitors Get Hands-On Access LA City Council Passes Budget That Trims Police, Fire Spending 'There's a fundamental disconnect here,' Mulvaney told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. 'Trump wants to talk at the very highest levels. That's not always how the Chinese want to do business.' Mulvaney's comments highlight a potential hurdle to a call between the leaders that the White House said is likely this week. Such direct contact could potentially ease tensions that have surged over access to chips and rare earths after earlier talks secured a 90-day reprieve for drastic tariffs. Mulvaney, who also served as Trump's budget director during his first term, said his former boss favors direct communications with the principal in business or politics alike. That approach, however, contrasts with the usual practice of the Chinese leader, who prefers that advisers iron out key issues beforehand. 'I do not see them being able to pull off a deal the old-fashioned way, which is going through the back channels,' Mulvaney said, speaking on the sidelines of the Nomura Investment Forum Asia in Singapore. 'And I think it'd be very difficult to do a deal going the Trump way, which is only Xi to Trump man-to-man.' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Monday the presidents are likely to speak this week, without giving a date for the 'potential' call. China's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on a possible call. Mulvaney replaced John Kelly as chief of staff during the first Trump administration but was never formally named to the role, serving over a year in an acting capacity. The former South Carolina congressman was also in charge of the Office of Management and Budget from 2017 to 2020. He said he believes that the US and China can find a way to co-exist, provided that Beijing takes steps to become what he called a 'leading nation of the world.' 'They can't steal people's intellectual property. They can't force you into bad deals in order to do business in your country. They can't hide information when they deal with pandemics, like they did with Covid-19,' he said. 'First-tier nations of the world don't do that. China's going to be become a first-tier nation. They need to step up their game.' --With assistance from Naman Tandon. YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Straits Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Trump's ‘man-to-man' style won't work on Xi, former aide says
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak this week. PHOTO: REUTERS SINGAPORE – A potential trade deal between the world's top two economies hinges on US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping overcoming core differences in their negotiation styles, former acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said. 'There's a fundamental disconnect here,' Mr Mulvaney told Bloomberg TV on June 3. 'Trump wants to talk at the very highest levels. That's not always how the Chinese want to do business.' Mr Mulvaney's comments highlight a potential hurdle to a call between the leaders that the White House said is likely this week. Such direct contact could potentially ease tensions that have surged over access to chips and rare earths after earlier talks secured a 90-day reprieve for drastic tariffs. Mr Mulvaney, who also served as Mr Trump's budget director during his first term, said his former boss favours direct communications with the principal in business or politics alike. That approach, however, contrasts with the usual practice of the Chinese leader, who prefers that advisers iron out key issues beforehand. 'I do not see them being able to pull off a deal the old-fashioned way, which is going through the back channels,' Mr Mulvaney said, speaking on the sidelines of the Nomura Investment Forum Asia in Singapore. 'And I think it'd be very difficult to do a deal going the Trump way, which is only Xi to Trump man-to-man.' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on June 2 the presidents are likely to speak this week, without giving a date for the 'potential' call. China's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on a possible call. Mr Mulvaney replaced Mr John Kelly as chief of staff during the first Trump administration, but was never formally named to the role, serving over a year in an acting capacity. The former South Carolina congressman was also in charge of the Office of Management and Budget from 2017 to 2020. He said he believes that the US and China can find a way to co-exist, provided that Beijing takes steps to become what he called a 'leading nation of the world.' 'They can't steal people's intellectual property. They can't force you into bad deals in order to do business in your country. They can't hide information when they deal with pandemics, like they did with Covid-19,' he said. 'First-tier nations of the world don't do that. China's going to be become a first-tier nation. They need to step up their game.' BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US Dollar Will Go Lower But Not in Disorderly Fashion, Nomura's Koo Says
Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, shares his outlook for the US dollar, trade relations and bond yields. He speaks to Bloomberg's Haslinda Amin at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia in Singapore. Melden Sie sich an, um Ihr Portfolio aufzurufen.
