23-05-2025
Scientists grow concerned over devastating phenomenon impacting world's largest landlocked body of water: 'It is advisable to start action as soon as possible'
Coastal ports on the Caspian Sea could be left high and dry — and crucial habitats could be strongly affected — if the sea's level continues to drop with increasing global temperatures, a recent study reported. The research warned of risks to humans as well as protected species.
Researchers led by University of Leeds faculty explored the possible impacts of projected declines in the sea's level by as much as 21 meters (about 70 feet) by the end of the century. They published their findings in April in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
The water level of the Caspian Sea — the world's largest landlocked water body — is declining as global temperatures increase, because more water is evaporating than flowing in, a university report about the study explained.
The researchers concluded that, even if global temperature changes are limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, the Caspian Sea will likely drop 16 to 32 feet.
This 2-degree mark is considered by many scientists to be a key threshold for efforts to limit the most severe effects on Earth's climate. Recent assessments consider it likely that the world will exceed this temperature increase.
The new findings estimate that more than 27 million acres of the Caspian Sea — an area larger than Iceland — would dry up under even this more optimistic climate scenario.
According to the new study, the sea level change under this scenario will "critically disrupt key ecosystems" as well as "reduce existing marine protected area coverage by up to 94%, and render billions of dollars of civil and industrial infrastructure obsolete."
Per the report, the Caspian coast is home to more than 15 million people — in Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. They rely on it for fishing, shipping, and trade.
The research indicated that, depending on the scenario, Northern Caspian communities and port equipment could end up anywhere from six to 60 miles from the shoreline of a dried-up sea.
Dropping water levels will also reduce the breeding habitat of endangered Caspian seals and will limit access to rivers where several species of sturgeon spawn, per the research. A drying sea will also cause the loss of lagoons and other shallow-water habitats crucial to other fish and migratory birds.
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The researchers noted that their findings come at a key juncture.
"Some Caspian Sea level decline appears unavoidable," Simon Goodman, who supervised the research, said in the University of Leeds report. "It should be possible to find ways to protect biodiversity while safeguarding human interests and well-being ... [but] it is advisable to start action as soon as possible to give the best chance of success."
Included on the researchers' list of recommendations are investments in biodiversity monitoring, conservation, and sustainable development. They advocated for helping coastal communities diversify their economies. They also argued for creating protected areas with flexible borders, to accommodate shifting habitats.
The recommendations also included cuts to heat-trapping pollution on a global scale — to limit the warming that carries with it risks to the Caspian and the world. These cuts require work for companies and countries — and individuals can also contribute, through efforts ranging from reconsidering what we eat to limiting the carbon pollution of our homes.
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