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The retail buy-the-dip move paid off. What that crowd of investors is doing now, according to JPMorgan.
The retail buy-the-dip move paid off. What that crowd of investors is doing now, according to JPMorgan.

Yahoo

time16-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

The retail buy-the-dip move paid off. What that crowd of investors is doing now, according to JPMorgan.

A pullback is shaping up, as investors hunt fresh rationale to keep buying and excitement fades over the U.S.-China tariff pause. Retail will be in focus with data and Walmart earnings ahead. Timing stock market ups-and-downs is a tricky feat, but congratulations are in order for retail investors, who appear to have done well in recent weeks by tearing a page out of Warren Buffett's 'be-greedy-when-others-are-fearful' playbook. 'My wife says no': I'm 57 and ready to retire next year on $7,500 a month. Who's right? My wife and I paid off my stepdaughter's $415K mortgage in exchange for her house, but it's now worth $310K. Should we sue? My second wife says her 2 kids should inherit our estate, but I also have 2 kids. Is that fair? My husband and I spend more money on our daughter and her family than on my single son. Do we compensate him? 'We're not wealthy': My niece is marrying out of state and she has a honeymoon fund. Is that cheeky? 'The buy-the-dip strategy in early April has clearly paid off,' said a team of JPMorgan strategists led by Emma Wu. 'We estimate retail investors' portfolio is up 15.1% since April 8, closely aligning with the market performance of +15.8%.' Investors bought $50 billion in stocks as the market bounced from the S&P 500's SPX 52-week low of 4982.77 reached April 8, said the JPMorgan team. 'Notably, their buy-the-dip strategy and gradual buying during the subsequent rally (with a reduced pace) has historically been profitable,' said the strategists. That was the situation in 2020: retail buyers made some 31% from the March low to the June high, basically doubling the market performance, the JPMorgan said. Retail investors were the main driver behind the market rally in the last week of April, with institutional activity subdued and low positioning by momentum-trading commodity trading advisers. Their market share reached 36% in late April, versus a year-to-date average of 21% and long-term share of 12%. As for what that savvy bunch of traders has been up to lately, JPMorgan says a shift may be under way. Wu and her colleagues noted that Monday marked the first time they've seen profit-taking flow — $555 million — since the market recovery, with $2 billion profits taken on options and the 'largest outflow in history' for Nvidia NVDA, to the tune of $894 million. After Tuesday's softer-than-forecast inflation numbers, retail investors came back in, though at a slower pace. Inflows in the latest week were entirely driven by exchange-traded funds, chiefly broad market ones such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, said Wu and colleagues. They also saw a sector rotation: value to growth, small cap to large cap, healthcare to industrials, gold and silver to base metals, while demand for international equities remained a theme. Over the past week, investors took profits on Nvidia, Palantir PLTR and Tesla TSLA, with continued heavily selling of Apple AAPL since last July, though buying for other Magnificent 7 group names. U.S. stocks SPX DJIA COMP have opened lower, with Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD30Y BX:TMUBMUSD10Y dropping. Oil prices CL00 NQ00 are down nearly 3% on rising bets of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. . Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 5892.58 4.64% 11.69% 0.19% 11.01% Nasdaq Composite 19,146.81 7.94% 17.41% -0.85% 14.36% 10-year Treasury 4.536 15.50 20.60 -4.00 15.50 Gold 3131.9 -7.14% -6.72% 18.66% 30.94% Oil 61.5 6.13% -0.71% -14.43% -22.02% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has warned that inflation could be more volatile in future. He spoke just ahead of a big data drop that showed producer prices falling a bigger-than-forecast 0.5% and the most since the pandemic, though that won't last. April retail sales rose a scant 0.1% as expected, after a revised up 1.7% gain in May, while the latest weekly jobless claims held steady at 229,000. Due later, industrial production is scheduled for 9:15 a.m., followed by business inventories and a home builders confidence index at 10 a.m. Consumer bellwether Walmart WMT reported forecast-beating results and maintained its full-year outlook, but warned tariffs are pressuring prices. Shares have turned lower. China e-commerce group Alibaba BABA reported weaker-than-forecast results and shares are down. Deere DE reported an earnings beat and share are up, but it also trimmed guidance. UnitedHealth shares UNH are off 6% after a report of a DOJ probe. Foot Locker FL shares are up 80% after Dick's Sporting Goods DKS said it will buy the sneaker chain in a $2.4 billion deal, confirming a Wednesday report. Coinbase stock COIN is slipping after suffering a cyber attack after overseas workers were bribed to steal customer data. Cisco Systems CSCO posted an earnings beat on growing AI demand for networking products. CoreWeave CRWV is falling on disappointing guidance. At a news conference, President Donald Trump gave the kiss of death to the idea of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. He also said India offered to drop tariffs on the U.S. to zero. Bags of cash from drug cartels flood teller windows at U.S. banks. Microsoft layoffs hit coders hardest with AI costs on the rise. As investors pile into private assets, this storied firm expects slowdown. Gold could be setting up for a 'spectacular fall,' as the U.S.-China tariff pause and talks planned between Russia and Ukraine take war risk out of commodity prices, said Ben Emons, founder of Fed Watch Advisors, in a Substack post. His chart shows gold and the Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE both pointing lower. 'Gold has 'crashed' before, such as in 2012-13 when the Euro crisis ended, and after 2020, resulting in a drawdown of 30 to 40 percent in each case. Secondly, there is energy, with XLE and WTI stopping short of the 50-day moving average, while the broader market remains in a risk-on momentum,' he said. These were the most active tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.: Ticker Security name NVDA Nvidia TSLA Tesla UNH UnitedHealth GME GameStop PLTR Palantir Technologies SMCI Super Micro Computer AAPL Apple AMD Advanced Micro Devices AMZN TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing The real deal. Harvard Law School's $27.50 Magna Carta copy. Meet Buster and Geno, America's favorite pets. The Eurovision song contest won't let the European Union flag on stage. The retail buy-the-dip move paid off. What that crowd of investors is doing now, according to JPMorgan. These $5,000 bonds can help you fix a stock-heavy portfolio How Europe's best investor picks stocks including GE Aerospace and Microsoft I have $50,000 in credit-card debt after my divorce, but received $30,000 after a car wreck. Do I buy a used Lexus? 'I am scared to death that I'll run out of money': My wife and I are in our 50s and have $4.4 million. Can we retire early?

What Is an AI Supercomputer and Why Is Trump Talking About It?
What Is an AI Supercomputer and Why Is Trump Talking About It?

Wall Street Journal

time17-04-2025

  • Business
  • Wall Street Journal

What Is an AI Supercomputer and Why Is Trump Talking About It?

President Trump enthused on social media this week that chip maker Nvidia NVDA -6.87%decrease; red down pointing triangle would build 'A.I. SUPERCOMPUTERS' in the U.S. The company hopes to boost its operations in the U.S. while its business with China has just taken a hit from Trump administration export curbs. What machines is Trump talking about, and why will they be American-made? Here is a guide:

Nvidia Says U.S. Implements Chip Export Restrictions to China, Warns of $5.5 Billion Charge
Nvidia Says U.S. Implements Chip Export Restrictions to China, Warns of $5.5 Billion Charge

Wall Street Journal

time15-04-2025

  • Business
  • Wall Street Journal

Nvidia Says U.S. Implements Chip Export Restrictions to China, Warns of $5.5 Billion Charge

Nvidia NVDA 1.35%increase; green up pointing triangle said it is anticipating a charge of up to $5.5 billion tied to exporting its artificial-intelligence chips to China, according to a regulatory filing from the semiconductor company. The graphic chip maker said Tuesday its first-quarter results for the three months ending April 27 are expected to include the charge associated with its AI H20 chips for inventory, purchase commitments and related reserves.

AI CEO issues grave warning about the future of Nvidia
AI CEO issues grave warning about the future of Nvidia

Miami Herald

time26-03-2025

  • Business
  • Miami Herald

AI CEO issues grave warning about the future of Nvidia

Despite some recent momentum over the past few days, Nvidia NVDA is still battling negative market conditions. Halfway through this week, the artificial intelligence (AI) leader is back to struggling and isn't showing signs of a rebound. Right now, Nvidia is facing new complications, as new environmental curbs from the Chinese government threaten its sales in a booming AI chip market. But even after the company unveiled multiple new innovations at Nvidia GTC (Global Technology Conference) 2025 last week, shares remain in the red for the month. Get expert insights and actionable trade alerts from veteran investing experts and hedge fund managers. Join TheStreet Pro today and get the first month FREE Granted, the market is highly volatile right now, as high economic uncertainty, spurred by recent tariffs, continues to fuel talk of a bear market. Wall Street optimism towards Nvidia remains generally high. However, one expert predicts that things are about to get worse. Even in a period of high volatility, it's typically hard to find too many experts who aren't optimistic about Nvidia's future. After all, the company has ridden the AI boom to unprecedented heights, helping usher in a new era for the tech sector. In addition to its broad share of the AI chip market, Nvidia is expanding into quantum computing at a time when the technology is making notable strides. IonQ (IONQ) chairman Peter Chapman recently stated that he believes Nvidia's quantum exposure is a reason not to bet against it, given the potential for a profitable intersection of quantum and AI. Related: Quantum computing leader has blunt 9-word take on Nvidia stock Another tech leader isn't so convinced, though. Tory Green is CEO of GPU (graphics processing unit)- power aggregator and he has some strong concerns about Nvidia's future, as he illustrates in an unflattering analogy. Green shared his contrarian take on Nvidia with TheStreet, noting that while Nvidia's "flashy" performance at last week's conference might have reassured some investors, the company is still facing much bigger challenges and is likely to become the (IBM) of this market cycle, a highly negative aspect in the tech world. At first glance, this analogy may be confusing, as IBM stock currently trades at a higher price than Nvidia. It's also outperformed it over the past six months, rising 13%, while Nvidia has fallen 7%. From Green's perspective, though, becoming the next IBM is something tech companies should strive to avoid. An early giant in the computing industry, IBM quickly rose to the top of its field but failed to keep pace with newer companies such as Apple AAPL and Microsoft MSFT, which quickly outmaneuvered it to monopolize the changing tech market. Now, Green sees Nvidia as in danger of falling into the same trap despite its reputation as the seemingly invincible AI leader. New AI bet from tech upstart could be a major blow to NvidiaAnthropic CEO issues frightening warning on Chinese AI rivalDisney, Nvidia join forces for a surprising collaboration "It's not a critique of IBM's performance, it's a warning of inertia," he says of his thesis. "In this analogy, this would mean that while NVIDIA today is dominant in centralized AI infrastructure, there's a risk that it becomes too tied to one model of distribution-data centers, hyperscalers, long-term contracts-while the world shifts to more distributed, permissionless infrastructure." There's no doubt that Nvidia is facing a complicated industry landscape, even as the AI market boom continues. Demand for AI chips is rising, but so is competition from other companies. The rise of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's R1 model in January 2025 led to speculation that AI models didn't need to be trained on Nvidia's most recent, highly-priced GPUs. Related: Jensen Huang shocks the world with Nvidia Quantum Day surprise NVDA still hasn't fully recovered from the selloff that DeepSeek's release triggered and economic uncertainty has only increased since then. Green sees the high cost of Nvidia's chips working against it shortly, which may compromise its growth prospects. "As former Intel INTC CEO Pat Gelsinger highlights, we are also overusing high-end GPUs for tasks that do not need them," he notes. "Most AI inference workloads don't require H100s, for example – they can run on far cheaper and more available hardware. And this highlights a huge inefficiency in the current AI stack. It's massive overkill on AI hardware for lightweight jobs." As Green sees it, the future of AI will come down to cost-effective solutions that will enable more companies to scale their operations. "If we want scalable, affordable AI, we can't run it on these $30,000 GPUs. We have to find cheaper and more efficient alternatives," he summarizes. Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.

I invested $4,000 in 2020 when the market crashed. It's now worth $55,000 with 65% in Nvidia. Am I now in trouble?
I invested $4,000 in 2020 when the market crashed. It's now worth $55,000 with 65% in Nvidia. Am I now in trouble?

Yahoo

time17-03-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

I invested $4,000 in 2020 when the market crashed. It's now worth $55,000 with 65% in Nvidia. Am I now in trouble?

I have a unique economic situation and would like advice. I've been disabled from anorexia and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome for the past five years. I started those five years homeless, but I was given a $5,000 gift to stay afloat from the same lady who paid for my college scholarship. Apple now faces a problem far bigger than tariffs or weak iPhone sales Stock futures fall as Bessent dismisses market worries: 'Corrections are healthy' 'They hate our generation': My son and daughter-in-law want us to sell our house — and move to Oregon to start a commune 'In their last days, our parents changed their will': They left me $250,000, but gave my sister $1 million. What should I do? Nvidia's stock nears a 'death cross.' Should investors be worried? I had $3,000 when the stock market crashed in 2020. I immediately invested that in stocks, letting myself become homeless (sleeping in the local park by a gym where I could shower) again in order to save up money for almost a year. I'm not homeless anymore. Now, that account is worth $55,000, with a 65% concentration in Nvidia NVDA, which was my first stock buy, then a 20% concentration in Novo Nordisk NVO and Eli Lilly LLY stock, with 15% diversified into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SSSPF , Invesco IVZ, Taiwan Semiconductor TW:2330 and a handful of other stocks. Now, I want to know: What should I do with this? I've been thinking about long-term goals and short-term goals. My hope is that this account keeps generating returns to cover my monthly expenses, which are about $1,200. I've thought about selling stock and putting it into a CD instead, or the possibility of transferring this stock into a retirement account for myself, but I don't want to lock up too much of the money in case of an emergency. Pandemic Investor Related: 'God works in mysterious ways': I became a Nvidia millionaire playing 'World of Warcraft.' Am I smart — or just lucky? Your mental and emotional health should be your No. 1 priority. Anorexia, as you know, is a mental-health condition that has the second-highest fatality rate, second only to opioid addiction, so I hope that you are getting the help and support that you need every day. You have had an astonishing return in just five years. I'm not an investment columnist, so I'm not going to tell you what you should do with your money. But if you're happy with your current allocation and have enough money to live on, stay the course. Your strategy, while successful given your modest initial capital investment, is also risky, in that you are heavily weighted in a few stocks, particularly Nvidia. There's a long road ahead for AI and that stock, but the last couple of days have been an eye-opener. Arguably, investors did not learn anything new from President Donald Trump's comments last week on Fox News. When asked about the potential of his tariffs to trigger a recession, he said he could not guarantee avoiding one. But they appear to have spooked the market. Nvidia's stock, along with the rest of the 'Magnificent Seven,' stocks have been 'brutalized' by the stock market in recent days, according to a note published late Monday by Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. He did, however, say Nvidia shares still trade at an attractive valuation. The other Magnificent Seven stocks include Alphabet GOOGL, Amazon AMZN, Apple AAPL, Meta META, Microsoft MSFT and Tesla TSLA. They bounced back (somewhat) on Friday after a dismal week. When investors get rattled, each one causes an equal, but not opposite, reaction. Monday, for what it's worth, was the worst day on Wall Street this year and, no doubt, you were experiencing the kind of anxiety that others who are similarly tech-heavy in their portfolios. But you've also had a good run these past five years on the stock market, with a few bumps along the way. 'Focus on your long-term financial goals,' says Brian Thorkelson, chief market strategist at Prosperity. 'Market volatility is often temporary, and reacting to short-term market movements can derail your progress towards achieving your financial objectives.' One thing you're missing in your long-term plan, as you invest more in your future: diversity. 'Diversification helps mitigate risk by spreading investments across various asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate,' Thorkelson adds. 'This approach can help cushion the impact of market fluctuations on your overall portfolio,' he adds. But, given the last few days and the drop in Nvidia's stock alone, you probably know that already. Hold tight: Many analysts remain optimistic on the company's long-term AI business. Related: Nvidia's stock is cheap by this metric. Can next week's GTC get it going again? Back to your question: CDs are still getting an OK return with interest rates now around 4%. High-yield savings accounts will also give you liquidity, as you can take your money out whenever you need it, but the interest rate can change based on the Federal Reserve's decisions. Your returns are a great start. But they won't get you far with $1,200 a month, but this success and your long-term goal to provide passive income in the years ahead are commendable. Keep at it. Steady nerves win the race when you are investing for the long term. It's important to have goals, whether it's buying a house, finding a nice place to rent, going to sleep at night knowing that you have investments that will grow over the next 5 or 10 years, or looking forward to reading a book by your favorite author. It's all part of the same game. We get through every day by — in theory, at least — doing something that gives us emotional and spiritual nourishment, and hope. It could be calling a friend and hearing a kind word or being that friend who picks up the phone to ask how someone else is doing. You don't mention having any debt and, despite your financial struggles, that is something to celebrate each day. Americans carried an average personal debt of $21,800 last year, lower than the $29,800 in 2019, according to a survey from Northwestern Mutual. Looking ahead, health savings accounts (HSA) allow you to save money in a tax-advantaged account and withdraw it tax-free for qualified medical expenses. You can also use that cash to reduce your out-of-pocket medical expenses in retirement and help build a nest egg. An emergency fund of at least six months of expenses is important, especially with recession fears increasing. You now have the time to put in place a support network of friends and family and, I hope, finances that will help prevent you from becoming homeless again. 'There's no one magic number for how much you need to start investing, or how much you should add each month, because the right number varies depending on your income, budget, and what other financial priorities you're juggling,' Fidelity Investments says. 'Investing a little bit every month and gradually increasing that amount over time, as you get more comfortable, is a fine way to go,' Fidelity adds. It suggests aiming to save an amount equal to 15% of your income toward retirement each year (including any employer match). There's no magic formula to the stock market or life: maintaining as much diversification as possible; adding a little bit every month, if you can; keeping your eye on the horizon so you can sleep well at night and know that each day, things will get even a little bit better. Related: 'This money has been a life changer' — a woman living on the poverty line inherited $150K and shares her financial plan More columns from Quentin Fottrell: 'It's awkward to give advice to wealthy people': My wife, 50, has terminal cancer. Our estate is worth $18 million. How do we prepare? My second wife is younger than me. If I die first, how do I make sure she doesn't cut off my children? It was obvious I wasn't in Kansas anymore': My local bank has no cashiers — and declined to accept my money. What's going on? 'This woman destroyed my heart and soul': After my wife died, her mother turned on me — and presented me with a secret will This sector may be the 'accidental beneficiary' of a U.S. growth scare, says JPMorgan 'I'll retire when I'm dead': My 401(k) lost $50,000 in the market turmoil. I'm in my early 40s. What should I do now? I'm carpooling with a friend for a conference. His expenses are covered. Should I offer to pay him for gas? 'Is it finally time to freak out?' I'm in my 50s and worried about the $650K in my 401(k). Sign in to access your portfolio

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