Latest news with #OAJ
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Fortress Minerals Full Year 2025 Earnings: Revenues Beat Expectations, EPS Lags
Revenue: US$56.3m (up 4.3% from FY 2024). Net income: US$6.32m (down 37% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 11% (down from 19% in FY 2024). EPS: US$0.012 (down from US$0.019 in FY 2024). This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. Gold Number of mines: 1 (1 in FY 2024) All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 56%. The primary driver behind last 12 months revenue was the Malaysia segment contributing a total revenue of US$52.1m (93% of total revenue). Explore how OAJ's revenue and expenses shape its earnings. The company's shares are down 2.2% from a week ago. You still need to take note of risks, for example - Fortress Minerals has 5 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
24-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Fair Value Of Fortress Minerals Limited (Catalist:OAJ)
Fortress Minerals' estimated fair value is S$0.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Fortress Minerals' S$0.23 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate The average premium for Fortress Minerals' competitorsis currently 826% Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Fortress Minerals Limited (Catalist:OAJ) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$7.07m US$6.71m US$6.52m US$6.44m US$6.43m US$6.47m US$6.54m US$6.64m US$6.76m US$6.89m Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -8.19% Est @ -5.02% Est @ -2.81% Est @ -1.26% Est @ -0.17% Est @ 0.59% Est @ 1.12% Est @ 1.49% Est @ 1.75% Est @ 1.93% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0% US$6.5 US$5.8 US$5.2 US$4.7 US$4.4 US$4.1 US$3.8 US$3.6 US$3.4 US$3.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$45m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.0%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$6.9m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.4%) = US$124m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$124m÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)10= US$57m The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$102m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$0.2, the company appears about fair value at a 8.1% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fortress Minerals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.958. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Fortress Minerals Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat No apparent threats visible for OAJ. Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Fortress Minerals, there are three pertinent items you should consider: Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Fortress Minerals , and understanding these should be part of your investment process. Future Earnings: How does OAJ's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the CATALIST every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Fair Value Of Fortress Minerals Limited (Catalist:OAJ)
Fortress Minerals' estimated fair value is S$0.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Fortress Minerals' S$0.23 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate The average premium for Fortress Minerals' competitorsis currently 826% Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Fortress Minerals Limited (Catalist:OAJ) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$7.07m US$6.71m US$6.52m US$6.44m US$6.43m US$6.47m US$6.54m US$6.64m US$6.76m US$6.89m Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -8.19% Est @ -5.02% Est @ -2.81% Est @ -1.26% Est @ -0.17% Est @ 0.59% Est @ 1.12% Est @ 1.49% Est @ 1.75% Est @ 1.93% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0% US$6.5 US$5.8 US$5.2 US$4.7 US$4.4 US$4.1 US$3.8 US$3.6 US$3.4 US$3.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$45m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.0%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$6.9m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.4%) = US$124m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$124m÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)10= US$57m The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$102m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$0.2, the company appears about fair value at a 8.1% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fortress Minerals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.958. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Fortress Minerals Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat No apparent threats visible for OAJ. Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Fortress Minerals, there are three pertinent items you should consider: Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Fortress Minerals , and understanding these should be part of your investment process. Future Earnings: How does OAJ's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the CATALIST every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Fair Value Of Fortress Minerals Limited (Catalist:OAJ)
Fortress Minerals' estimated fair value is S$0.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Fortress Minerals' S$0.23 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate The average premium for Fortress Minerals' competitorsis currently 826% Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Fortress Minerals Limited (Catalist:OAJ) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$7.07m US$6.71m US$6.52m US$6.44m US$6.43m US$6.47m US$6.54m US$6.64m US$6.76m US$6.89m Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -8.19% Est @ -5.02% Est @ -2.81% Est @ -1.26% Est @ -0.17% Est @ 0.59% Est @ 1.12% Est @ 1.49% Est @ 1.75% Est @ 1.93% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0% US$6.5 US$5.8 US$5.2 US$4.7 US$4.4 US$4.1 US$3.8 US$3.6 US$3.4 US$3.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$45m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.0%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$6.9m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.4%) = US$124m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$124m÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)10= US$57m The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$102m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$0.2, the company appears about fair value at a 8.1% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fortress Minerals as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.958. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Fortress Minerals Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat No apparent threats visible for OAJ. Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Fortress Minerals, there are three pertinent items you should consider: Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Fortress Minerals , and understanding these should be part of your investment process. Future Earnings: How does OAJ's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the CATALIST every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
