14-05-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
‘The patriotism won't last long when Americans realise they are getting gouged on prices'
'But he's made so many exceptions and continues to do so… it's like smashing up the bar, and then realised you like drinking.'
The phrases 'own goal' and 'echo chamber' are part of our conversation into what impact the announced tariff war from US President Donald Trump is having – or could have – on our wider global economy, and what it means for us at home.
Mark heads up Belfast-based OCO Global – an advisory firm in the international trade, investment and economic development sector.
'The initial trigger happy Trump with these swathing tariffs has been tempered by the markets, and the bond markets in particular,' he tells Ulster Business.
'When you see the row back on smartphones, and chips, you'd think with advisers and heft, that someone sensible in the room would say it's an own goal.
'It tells you a lot about the echo chamber that he has created for himself. There is no scope for dissent.'
At the core of all of this is stability. It's something Northern Ireland struggled with for decades amid the worst of the Troubles, and to a lesser extent, continued to do amid periods of political instability and flux in the years since.
'The bottom line from a business point of view, is page one, paragraph one, of the playbook on investment – you need a stable and predictable regime to de-risk your investment,' Mark says.
'The US used to be the safest haven, now it's less so. Of course, I get it – he's trying to [discourage] exporting to the US, and incentive direct investment and become more self-sufficient.
'But the way he is going about it is the wrong way. The US is already an attractive market, with competitive businesses there – they don't need a stick to get them there.
'The skills and attitudes towards manual work have changed, and they aren't coming back.
'More immediately for Northern Ireland firms, the message is, for the time being – the US market, for exporting, is still attractive.
'It's consumer-driven demand. When you try to restrict competition, you are limiting consumer choices – it's been tried [in other countries unsuccessfully]. In the end, consumer demand forced them to open their markets.
'The US is a very competitive market. If the only option is American then the patriotism won't last long when they realise they are getting gouged on price or monopolised by one or two suppliers.'
He said while some of the US's big consumer retailers may source goods from dozens of countries, if restrictions and taxation comes in which forces them to buy from American suppliers, it may not have a happy ending.
'It's people power in the end that will disrupt his plan,' he says.
'There is way too much focus on [physical] products. But the biggest part of economy is services and digital – no one is talking about that.
'Trump has to have his victory, but at moment it looks like he's scoring own goals. With the pandemic, we released how dependent we are on China.
'Trump is doing the same with Europe as a wake up call. The dependence on foreign investment is a source of a lot of nervousness – rebooting, and seeing lots of [organisations] diversifying exports.'
He says we have historically had an overdependence on trade and business with the US market.
However, Mark says one of his clients, a manufacturer, has already set up a major base in the US – before the current Trump administration took over – and is seeing strong trade. He says the tariffs on nations such as China and Mexico have been something of a boon for firms operating in that space.
'They have never been busier,' Mark says. 'The US market is 10 times what Europe is.'
Being so close to one of its major customer bases allows assembly and a degree of customisation only possible, given the proximity.
But looking ahead, prices are likely to rise – regardless of whether the Trump tariffs are introduced, and how severe they may be for certain sectors in particular.
'A number of factors have forced price increases over last 12 months,' Mark says. 'Inflation and interest rates, the price of money and labour – it's already high. Clients are, to some degree, anticipating increases.'
He said rising prices, for some, can be locked in, whereas others have less flexibility.
'It's fast-moving stuff – prices have to be imposed immediately,' he says.
'For engineering firms, fabrication, advanced manufacturing, they can lock in prices, as they have bought raw materials – probably contracted some time ago.'
