Latest news with #OctaBroker
Zawya
3 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
June 2025 Market Outlook: Essential Economic and Geopolitical Events for Traders by Octa Broker
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 2 June 2025 - June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the surface. Beyond the usual inflation prints and interest rate decisions, markets will also have to digest key developments around global diplomacy: the NATO and G7 summits, peace negotiations in Eastern Europe, U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union, as well as debates around nuclear policy in the Middle East. Add to this the lingering fiscal tensions in Washington, and it's clear that June won't be business as usual. Octa Broker explains why the economic calendar is worth monitoring and what events to watch out for in June 2025. The Role of the Economic Calendar for Traders For traders, the economic calendar is more than a schedule—it's a risk map. It flags: central bank rate decisions inflation and employment reports Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and growth outlooks high-level summits with potential for market-moving headlines. These events affect not just macro sentiment but also short-term liquidity and intraday volatility. And when several collide—as they will in June—market reactions tend to be sharper, faster, and harder to fade. Anticipating such events in advance allows traders to capitalise on potential opportunities and adjust risk management—some even avoid trading during volatility. Key Economic Events in June 2025 Here are some major events to follow in June: June 4: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision June 5: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision June 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls June 11: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) June 15–17: Group-7 (G7) Summit June 17: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision June 18: Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision—includes Economic Projections and the Dot Plot June 19: Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision June 19: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision June 20: People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit June 26–27: European Council Summit June 27: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index June 30: German CPI Potential Impact of June Economic and Geopolitical Events For Traders Heightened Volatility Expected June is shaping up to be an eventful month for currencies and rate-sensitive assets, with seven major central bank meetings scheduled—the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, SNB, and PBoC. Traders can anticipate heightened volatility not only in the major USD-based pairs but also in equity indices, individual stocks, and commodities. June's Federal Reserve meeting is particularly important, accompanied by updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot—forward-looking instruments via which markets infer future rate trajectories. Surprises can unleash dramatic repricing in Treasury yields, gold, and risk assets. Macroeconomic Divergence as a Market Drive r Inflation paths remain divergent. In the U.S., core CPI slowed to 2.3% YoY, potentially softening the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, ECB officials appear divided: Klaas Knot said inflation risks remain uncertain, while Pierre Wunsch hinted that rates could fall below 2%. This split supports tactical positioning in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, particularly around central bank commentary. Geopolitical Events Could Disrupt Risk Sentimen t June's summits aren't ceremonial. The G7 Summit will cover trade security and energy cooperation, while the NATO meeting will focus on defence spending and alliance posture. Any hawkish statements or surprises around Ukraine, China, or the Middle East could move commodity markets—particularly, oil and gold—and affect defence-sector equities. Bond Market Tensions Could Spill Into FX and Equities Rising Treasury yields, recently breaching 5.0% on 20-year note, are fueling concern over U.S. fiscal policy. As Moody's warned, the sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming a market risk. Traders should watch for safe-haven rotation into gold, Bitcoin, Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY). Japan, however, is facing debt troubles of its own, as yields on 30-year bonds recently climbed to multi-decade highs, prompting calls to BoJ to either increase bond buying or halt its plans to gradually reduce such purchases. Either way, traders should keep a close eye on both the U.S. and the Japanese bond markets. Ongoing Trade Negotiations Remain a Wildcard The May U.S.-China joint statement hinted at easing tensions—but markets remain sceptical. There are still several critical obstacles to a comprehensive trade agreement between the parties. For example, on May 12th, China's Ministry of Commerce strengthened control over strategic mineral exports, on which the U.S. is highly dependent. Other critical sticking points include technology transfer issues and Artificial Intelligence (AI), as China's growing semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts are not particularly favoured in Washington. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty as to whether any meaningful progress in trade talks between the U.S. and EU can be achieved in June. Although the parties agreed to fast-track the negotiations, some business leaders are sceptical. June won't be a month for passive positioning. With central banks sending mixed signals, inflation data diverging, and global diplomacy back on the front pages, traders will have to juggle more than just charts. This is the kind of environment where preparation matters more than prediction. Knowing when the Fed drops its Dot Plot is as important as watching where oil prices go after a NATO statement. With overlapping narratives and rising volatility, it's not about calling the top or bottom—it's about managing risk around known catalysts and staying nimble when the unknowns hit. Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively. Octa
Associated Press
3 days ago
- Business
- Associated Press
June 2025 Market Outlook: Essential Economic and Geopolitical Events for Traders by Octa Broker
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 2 June 2025 - June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the surface. Octa Broker Beyond the usual inflation prints and interest rate decisions, markets will also have to digest key developments around global diplomacy: the NATO and G7 summits, peace negotiations in Eastern Europe, U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union, as well as debates around nuclear policy in the Middle East. Add to this the lingering fiscal tensions in Washington, and it's clear that June won't be business as usual. Octa Broker explains why the economic calendar is worth monitoring and what events to watch out for in June 2025. The Role of the Economic Calendar for Traders For traders, the economic calendar is more than a schedule—it's a risk map. It flags: These events affect not just macro sentiment but also short-term liquidity and intraday volatility. And when several collide—as they will in June—market reactions tend to be sharper, faster, and harder to fade. Anticipating such events in advance allows traders to capitalise on potential opportunities and adjust risk management—some even avoid trading during volatility. Key Economic Events in June 2025 Here are some major events to follow in June: Potential Impact of June Economic and Geopolitical Events For Traders Heightened Volatility Expected June is shaping up to be an eventful month for currencies and rate-sensitive assets, with seven major central bank meetings scheduled—the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, SNB, and PBoC. Traders can anticipate heightened volatility not only in the major USD-based pairs but also in equity indices, individual stocks, and commodities. June's Federal Reserve meeting is particularly important, accompanied by updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot—forward-looking instruments via which markets infer future rate trajectories. Surprises can unleash dramatic repricing in Treasury yields, gold, and risk assets. Macroeconomic Divergence as a Market Drive r Inflation paths remain divergent. In the U.S., core CPI slowed to 2.3% YoY, potentially softening the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, ECB officials appear divided: Klaas Knot said inflation risks remain uncertain, while Pierre Wunsch hinted that rates could fall below 2%. This split supports tactical positioning in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, particularly around central bank commentary. Geopolitical Events Could Disrupt Risk Sentimen t June's summits aren't ceremonial. The G7 Summit will cover trade security and energy cooperation, while the NATO meeting will focus on defence spending and alliance posture. Any hawkish statements or surprises around Ukraine, China, or the Middle East could move commodity markets—particularly, oil and gold—and affect defence-sector equities. Bond Market Tensions Could Spill Into FX and Equities Rising Treasury yields, recently breaching 5.0% on 20-year note, are fueling concern over U.S. fiscal policy. As Moody's warned, the sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming a market risk. Traders should watch for safe-haven rotation into gold, Bitcoin, Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY). Japan, however, is facing debt troubles of its own, as yields on 30-year bonds recently climbed to multi-decade highs, prompting calls to BoJ to either increase bond buying or halt its plans to gradually reduce such purchases. Either way, traders should keep a close eye on both the U.S. and the Japanese bond markets. Ongoing Trade Negotiations Remain a Wildcard The May U.S.-China joint statement hinted at easing tensions—but markets remain sceptical. There are still several critical obstacles to a comprehensive trade agreement between the parties. For example, on May 12th, China's Ministry of Commerce strengthened control over strategic mineral exports, on which the U.S. is highly dependent. Other critical sticking points include technology transfer issues and Artificial Intelligence (AI), as China's growing semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts are not particularly favoured in Washington. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty as to whether any meaningful progress in trade talks between the U.S. and EU can be achieved in June. Although the parties agreed to fast-track the negotiations, some business leaders are sceptical. June won't be a month for passive positioning. With central banks sending mixed signals, inflation data diverging, and global diplomacy back on the front pages, traders will have to juggle more than just charts. This is the kind of environment where preparation matters more than prediction. Knowing when the Fed drops its Dot Plot is as important as watching where oil prices go after a NATO statement. With overlapping narratives and rising volatility, it's not about calling the top or bottom—it's about managing risk around known catalysts and staying nimble when the unknowns hit. Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Malay Mail
26-05-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Octa Broker Insights: Navigating Cryptocurrency Markets with CFDs in 2025
there is no need to open or manage a digital wallet, private keys are not required, the risk of direct asset theft from exchanges or wallet breaches is eliminated. major fiat currency pairs (e.g., USDIDR, EURJPY), global indices like the S&P 500 or Nikkei 225, commodities such as gold and crude oil, and, of course, digital assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and more. KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 26 May 2025 - As global crypto markets show increased volatility, traders rethink their risk exposure. One vivid option is contracts for difference (CFDs). Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, shares three reasons crypto traders should adopt CFDs and migrate from traditional year began with a harsh reminder that even the biggest crypto platforms remain vulnerable. In February, the global exchange Bybit was hit by a cyberattack that drained roughly $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum, one of the largest crypto thefts ever recorded. Just a few months later, Coinbase disclosed a serious breach affecting customer data, with expected costs nearing $400 aren't isolated cases. According to Chainalysis, crypto hacks surged by over 60% in Q1 2025 alone, with nearly $2.3 billion in total value lost to protocol exploits, phishing scams and key mismanagement. Against this backdrop, crypto contracts for difference, or CFDs, are being increasingly seen as a safer, more flexible way to access digital assets.A CFD is a financial instrument that enables speculation on the price movement of an asset without owning it outright. When trading crypto via CFDs, there is no need to buy the coin itself. Instead, traders enter a contract to benefit from the price difference between entry and on-chain trades or exchange-based holdings, CFD traders do not need to worry about hot wallet attacks, faulty smart contracts, or failed withdrawals. Trades are protected by the broker's infrastructure, subject to financial regulations and operational transparency. Besides this, they are executed with full visibility on spreads, fees, and leverage, which contrasts the often opaque practices of smaller crypto exchanges. The absence of wallet management also reduces the risk of human error, such as misplacing private keys or falling victim to phishing compelling reason why crypto traders are moving to CFDs is crypto exchanges limit access to tokens and stablecoins, CFD platforms provide exposure to a broad spectrum of assets, including:For example, Octa, a global broker with a track record since 2011, offers crypto CFDs on more than 30 popular digital assets. This cross-asset access helps build more balanced portfolios and allows traders to hedge their crypto positions with traditional markets, all from one are leveraged instruments. This means that with a relatively small deposit (known as margin), traders can open larger positions — something not feasible on most spot exchanges where one must buy the full asset upfront. For retail investors in Southeast Asia who want to participate actively in global markets, this lowers the barrier to entering the crypto market significantly. Octa broker, for instance, provides flexible leverage and low spreads on crypto CFD pairs, offering 24/7 access with no need for an e-wallet or blockchain was once seen as a tool for forex traders has rapidly become mainstream among crypto investors, especially those looking for better security, multi-asset diversification, competitive costs, less operational risk, and 24/7 access to crypto markets, without being 'on-chain'.The shift is not ideological; it's rational. In a year defined by security lapses and operational uncertainty across global crypto exchanges, CFDs are emerging as the more professional, institution-grade route for digital asset exposure.___Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Malay Mail
23-05-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Southeast Asia Navigates U.S. Tariffs: An Octa Broker Analysis
Selected data for international trade in goods for some Asian countries (2024) Trade balance with the U.S. (million USD) Share of U.S. imports After reciprocal tariffs imposed Total until July Cambodia 9,652 <1% 49% 10% China 359,850 13.4% 34% negotiations still ongoing India 42,931 2.7% 26% 10% Indonesia 12,638 <1% 32% 10% Laos -109 <1% 48% 10% Malaysia 15,744 1.6% 24% 10% Myanmar 361 <1% 44% 10% Philippines 3,276 <1% 17% 10% Singapore -11,850 1.3% 10% 10% Thailand 35,045 1.9% 36% 10% Vietnam 103,392 4.2% 46% 10% China Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Indonesia KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 23 May 2025 - Asian countries are navigating uncertainty amidst the U.S. tariff pause. The region runs a large trade surplus with the U.S., and many countries' economies rely heavily on exports. Now, the Asian states have about seven weeks left to negotiate new trade deals with the U.S. Octa Broker looks at the progress made so far and weighs the chances for a final since Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States (U.S.), the markets have grown increasingly concerned about the health of the world economy. Specifically, the outlook for the international trade order became uncertain as Trump's 2024 election platform included expansive claims about new tariffs. Indeed, on 2 April, 2025, Trump unveiled his long-promised 'reciprocal' tariffs strategy, essentially imposing hefty import duties on more than a hundred of countries. However, less than a week after revealing his reciprocal tariffs, Trump adjusted his policy, declaring that countries that had not retaliated would receive a reprieve until July and would only face a blanket US tariff of 10%. At the same time, the tariffs on China were increased even principal idea behind Trump's aggressive trade policy is that higher import costs would encourage global manufacturers to re-locate production into the U.S., while also pressuring other nations to buy more U.S. goods, thereby correcting the U.S.'s massive trade deficit. Thus, counties that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. have most to fear and most to lose from these tariffs. Many of these countries are located in South and Southeast Asia (see the table below). For these countries, Trump's decision to pause the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days has offered a critical window for negotiations between the U.S. with China commenced and have already yielded some positive results. There is hope among other Asian states that similar productive discussions and agreements to mitigate the impact of the proposed tariffs can follow. The coming weeks are crucial as countries navigate the negotiation period before the 90-day pause expires, seeking to secure more favorable trade conditions with the is a central focus of the U.S. trade policy. In 2024, the total value of goods traded between two countries was approximately $582.4 billion. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports of electronic equipment and machinery, while China primarily imports U.S. mineral fuels, oil seeds, electrical machinery and mechanical appliances. However, the trade balance significantly favors China, which recorded a $360 billion surplus with the U.S. in 2024, according to IMF Monday, Donald Trump announced a broad trade deal with Beijing that lowered import taxes on all Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. China, in turn, lowered its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. The reductions will hold for the next 90 days, while the two countries negotiate a longer-term deal. A few days later, the U.S. cut the so-called 'de minimis' tariff for low-value shipments from China to as low as 30%. Meanwhile, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it had paused some non-tariff measures taken against 17 U.S. entities put on its unreliable entity list in April and 28 U.S. entities on its export control list.'A full-blown trade war between the world's two largest economies would have been disastrous for the global market. Thankfully, the officials agreed to de-escalate it quickly. However, we are still not out of the woods yet', says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, adding that a long-term trade agreement between China and the U.S. is yet to be finalized and that markets are being a bit too optimistic right now. 'Let's not forget that Trump tried to renegotiate a trade deal with China during his 1st term, but the talks failed in 2019 despite the fact that there was agreement in principle. And I personally believe that the markets are a bit too optimistic about the prospects for a grand deal this time'.Indeed, U.S. equity indices have recovered swiftly following the decision to de-escalate, but the rally may not last. 'It would not take much for the bearish sentiment to reemerge. Although tariffs have been lowered, the existing tariffs are still doing damage to the global economy. U.S. inflation is likely to pick up in the months ahead and that would prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from delivering on anticipated rate cuts, which may trigger a major selloff in equities', comments Kar Yong Ang. Either way, other Asian countries are monitoring the progress carefully and are also engaged in active discussions with the U.S. faces duties of 46% on its exports to the U.S. if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a global moratorium expires in July. As a major export-reliant industrial hub, to where numerous companies have relocated (not least in order to lower their exposure to China), Vietnam runs the second-largest trade surplus with the U.S. among Asian countries. It is, therefore, unsurprising, that the two countries began informal talks to avoid tariffs well before Trump announced global reciprocal duties on 2 April. Among the issues discussed are the reduction of Vietnam's big trade surplus, the fight against trade fraud such as illegal transshipments, the lowering of tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. businesses and enhanced protection of intellectual property, including the fight against counterfeits and digital piracy.'Vietnam stands to lose a lot should trade talks fail. Companies like Apple, Nike, and Samsung Electronics have large manufacturing operations in the country and may consider leaving altogether if a 46% duty is introduced. I think Vietnamese authorities will do their best to achieve a trade deal with the U.S.', commented Kar Yong just a few days ago, Vietnam News Agency reported that Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered a one-month intensive campaign to crack down on smuggling, trade fraud and counterfeit goods. Previously, the news surfaced that the Trump Organization was partnering with Vietnam on potential investments in hotel, real estate and golf course projects possibly worth billions of to the WorldBank , the U.S. is Vietnam's largest export market with a share of at least 30% and more than $110 billion worth of faces duties of 36% on its exports to the U.S. According to the Bangkok Post , Thai government had said that it would increase imports of U.S. goods, such as corn, soybean meal, crude, ethane, liquified natural gas, autos and electronics to reduce its bilateral trade surplus. In addition, the government submitted a separate trade proposal to the U.S., which included 5 to 6 key points. Last Monday, the head of Thailand Trade Representatives met with U.S. senators, congressional leaders, and major American companies, in a bid to reaffirm Thailand's role as a key investor in the country and explore joint Thai-U.S. manufacturing.'Thailand has clearly taken the trade matters quite seriously despite its relatively small trade surplus. There are good chances that a final agreement could be reached before global pause expires in July', commented Kar Yong to the WorldBank , the U.S. is Thailand's largest export market with a share of at least 16% and more than $50 billion worth of faces duties of 24% on its exports to the U.S. However, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia's Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, recently said that he was ' optimistic ' for a trade agreement with the U.S. within a 90-day period. He visited the U.S. at the end of April and was fully committed to resolving the differences. 'All communication lines remain open and we will continue to work towards an amicable solution to this reciprocal tariff matter', Tengku Zafrul Aziz said.'It seems like the Forex market shares the trade minister's optimism. The Malaysian ringgit has been strengthening lately. USDMYR may potentially drop below 4.240 if a trade deal is struck', commented Kar Yong to the WorldBank , United States is Malaysia's third largest export market with a share of at least 11% and more than $40 billion worth of plans to 'narrow' or even eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. by importing more agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans and corn from the U.S. Overall, Indonesia's reaction to Trump tariffs has been rather muted probably because exports to the U.S. account for just around 2% of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, Indonesia's exports are relatively well diversified and although the U. S. is an important export destination, its share is relatively to the WorldBank , the U.S. is Indonesia's second largest export market with a share of at least 10% and more than $30 billion worth of balance, Asian nations find themselves in a crucial period, actively negotiating with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs. While the progress achieved during the U.S.-China talks offers some hope, the diverse situations and negotiating stances of countries like Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia highlight the complexity of reaching widespread agreements. As Octa Broker analysts suggest, the optimism surrounding these trade discussions should be tempered with the understanding that lasting resolutions remain uncertain, and market reactions may be premature.___Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Arabian Post
23-05-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
Southeast Asia Navigates U.S. Tariffs: An Octa Broker Analysis
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach Newswire – 23 May 2025 – Asian countries are navigating uncertainty amidst the U.S. tariff pause. The region runs a large trade surplus with the U.S., and many countries' economies rely heavily on exports. Now, the Asian states have about seven weeks left to negotiate new trade deals with the U.S. Octa Broker looks at the progress made so far and weighs the chances for a final agreement. Ever since Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States (U.S.), the markets have grown increasingly concerned about the health of the world economy. Specifically, the outlook for the international trade order became uncertain as Trump's 2024 election platform included expansive claims about new tariffs. Indeed, on 2 April, 2025, Trump unveiled his long-promised 'reciprocal' tariffs strategy, essentially imposing hefty import duties on more than a hundred of countries. However, less than a week after revealing his reciprocal tariffs, Trump adjusted his policy, declaring that countries that had not retaliated would receive a reprieve until July and would only face a blanket US tariff of 10%. At the same time, the tariffs on China were increased even further. The principal idea behind Trump's aggressive trade policy is that higher import costs would encourage global manufacturers to re-locate production into the U.S., while also pressuring other nations to buy more U.S. goods, thereby correcting the U.S.'s massive trade deficit. Thus, counties that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. have most to fear and most to lose from these tariffs. Many of these countries are located in South and Southeast Asia (see the table below). For these countries, Trump's decision to pause the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days has offered a critical window for negotiation. ADVERTISEMENT Selected data for international trade in goods for some Asian countries (2024) Trade balance with the U.S. (million USD) Share of U.S. imports After reciprocal tariffs imposed Total until July Cambodia 9,652 <1% 49% 10% China 359,850 13.4% 34% negotiations still ongoing India 42,931 2.7% 26% 10% Indonesia 12,638 <1% 32% 10% Laos -109 <1% 48% 10% Malaysia 15,744 1.6% 24% 10% Myanmar 361 <1% 44% 10% Philippines 3,276 <1% 17% 10% Singapore -11,850 1.3% 10% 10% Thailand 35,045 1.9% 36% 10% Vietnam 103,392 4.2% 46% 10% Source: International Monetary Fund, White House The negotiations between the U.S. with China commenced and have already yielded some positive results. There is hope among other Asian states that similar productive discussions and agreements to mitigate the impact of the proposed tariffs can follow. The coming weeks are crucial as countries navigate the negotiation period before the 90-day pause expires, seeking to secure more favorable trade conditions with the U.S. China China is a central focus of the U.S. trade policy. In 2024, the total value of goods traded between two countries was approximately $582.4 billion. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports of electronic equipment and machinery, while China primarily imports U.S. mineral fuels, oil seeds, electrical machinery and mechanical appliances. However, the trade balance significantly favors China, which recorded a $360 billion surplus with the U.S. in 2024, according to IMF data. Last Monday, Donald Trump announced a broad trade deal with Beijing that lowered import taxes on all Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. China, in turn, lowered its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. The reductions will hold for the next 90 days, while the two countries negotiate a longer-term deal. A few days later, the U.S. cut the so-called 'de minimis' tariff for low-value shipments from China to as low as 30%. Meanwhile, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it had paused some non-tariff measures taken against 17 U.S. entities put on its unreliable entity list in April and 28 U.S. entities on its export control list. 'A full-blown trade war between the world's two largest economies would have been disastrous for the global market. Thankfully, the officials agreed to de-escalate it quickly. However, we are still not out of the woods yet', says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, adding that a long-term trade agreement between China and the U.S. is yet to be finalized and that markets are being a bit too optimistic right now. 'Let's not forget that Trump tried to renegotiate a trade deal with China during his 1st term, but the talks failed in 2019 despite the fact that there was agreement in principle. And I personally believe that the markets are a bit too optimistic about the prospects for a grand deal this time'. Indeed, U.S. equity indices have recovered swiftly following the decision to de-escalate, but the rally may not last. 'It would not take much for the bearish sentiment to reemerge. Although tariffs have been lowered, the existing tariffs are still doing damage to the global economy. U.S. inflation is likely to pick up in the months ahead and that would prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from delivering on anticipated rate cuts, which may trigger a major selloff in equities', comments Kar Yong Ang. Either way, other Asian countries are monitoring the progress carefully and are also engaged in active discussions with the U.S. officials. Vietnam Vietnam faces duties of 46% on its exports to the U.S. if a reduction cannot be negotiated before a global moratorium expires in July. As a major export-reliant industrial hub, to where numerous companies have relocated (not least in order to lower their exposure to China), Vietnam runs the second-largest trade surplus with the U.S. among Asian countries. It is, therefore, unsurprising, that the two countries began informal talks to avoid tariffs well before Trump announced global reciprocal duties on 2 April. Among the issues discussed are the reduction of Vietnam's big trade surplus, the fight against trade fraud such as illegal transshipments, the lowering of tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. businesses and enhanced protection of intellectual property, including the fight against counterfeits and digital piracy. 'Vietnam stands to lose a lot should trade talks fail. Companies like Apple, Nike, and Samsung Electronics have large manufacturing operations in the country and may consider leaving altogether if a 46% duty is introduced. I think Vietnamese authorities will do their best to achieve a trade deal with the U.S.', commented Kar Yong Ang. Indeed, just a few days ago, Vietnam News Agency reported that Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered a one-month intensive campaign to crack down on smuggling, trade fraud and counterfeit goods. Previously, the news surfaced that the Trump Organization was partnering with Vietnam on potential investments in hotel, real estate and golf course projects possibly worth billions of dollars. According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Vietnam's largest export market with a share of at least 30% and more than $110 billion worth of shipments. Thailand Thailand faces duties of 36% on its exports to the U.S. According to the Bangkok Post, Thai government had said that it would increase imports of U.S. goods, such as corn, soybean meal, crude, ethane, liquified natural gas, autos and electronics to reduce its bilateral trade surplus. In addition, the government submitted a separate trade proposal to the U.S., which included 5 to 6 key points. Last Monday, the head of Thailand Trade Representatives met with U.S. senators, congressional leaders, and major American companies, in a bid to reaffirm Thailand's role as a key investor in the country and explore joint Thai-U.S. manufacturing. 'Thailand has clearly taken the trade matters quite seriously despite its relatively small trade surplus. There are good chances that a final agreement could be reached before global pause expires in July', commented Kar Yong Ang. According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Thailand's largest export market with a share of at least 16% and more than $50 billion worth of shipments. Malaysia Malaysia faces duties of 24% on its exports to the U.S. However, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia's Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, recently said that he was 'optimistic' for a trade agreement with the U.S. within a 90-day period. He visited the U.S. at the end of April and was fully committed to resolving the differences. 'All communication lines remain open and we will continue to work towards an amicable solution to this reciprocal tariff matter', Tengku Zafrul Aziz said. 'It seems like the Forex market shares the trade minister's optimism. The Malaysian ringgit has been strengthening lately. USDMYR may potentially drop below 4.240 if a trade deal is struck', commented Kar Yong Ang. According to the WorldBank, United States is Malaysia's third largest export market with a share of at least 11% and more than $40 billion worth of shipments. Indonesia Indonesia plans to 'narrow' or even eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. by importing more agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans and corn from the U.S. Overall, Indonesia's reaction to Trump tariffs has been rather muted probably because exports to the U.S. account for just around 2% of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, Indonesia's exports are relatively well diversified and although the U. S. is an important export destination, its share is relatively minor. According to the WorldBank, the U.S. is Indonesia's second largest export market with a share of at least 10% and more than $30 billion worth of shipments. On balance, Asian nations find themselves in a crucial period, actively negotiating with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs. While the progress achieved during the U.S.-China talks offers some hope, the diverse situations and negotiating stances of countries like Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia highlight the complexity of reaching widespread agreements. As Octa Broker analysts suggest, the optimism surrounding these trade discussions should be tempered with the understanding that lasting resolutions remain uncertain, and market reactions may be premature. ___ Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
