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Axios
20-03-2025
- Business
- Axios
How a FEMA transformation could impact North Carolina
North Carolina's reputation as one of the most disaster-prone states means it could face an outsized impact if the federal government transforms how it provides disaster relief assistance. Why it matters: In a visit to western North Carolina this year, President Trump floated"fundamentally overhauling or reforming" FEMA, or "maybe getting rid" of it — fueling concerns that U.S. disaster relief could be thrown into chaos just a few months before another hurricane season spins up. Changes to the program could burden a state already plagued by a painfully slow response to hurricanes that have ravaged it in recent years. Driving the news: Hurricane Helene is estimated to have left close to $60 billion in damages in its wake, per North Carolina's Office of State Budget and Management. The state failed to appoint a "disaster recovery coordinator" to work with the federal government, the Washington Post reported, and six months after the disaster, the state and federal government have funneled just a fraction of the cost of the damages into the region. It's unclear how the elimination or overhaul of FEMA could impact the speed or amount of federal dollars dispersed to disaster-ridden states, but with a long road to Helene recovery ahead, the state is still struggling to rebuild homes after hurricanes Matthew and Florence, which ripped through the state years ago. How it works: FEMA and other federal agencies, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), already funnel billions of dollars to individuals and communities. It's unclear how or whether Trump's vision might change that, or if it would result in fewer federal dollars for disaster-wracked states. Some FEMA reform advocates call for giving states "block grants" of relief money to spend as they see fit, rather than to meet specific needs — but others worry that would lead to fraud and abuse, or that many states lack the resources and expertise to rebuild without help. By the numbers: North Carolina is one of the states that would be hit especially hard if the feds change the state's federal relief funding infrastructure, per a new analysis from the Carnegie Disaster Dollar Database. The state received an average of $451.3 million per year in FEMA and HUD relief funding from 2015 to 2024 for 10 disasters—just 1.1% of the state's fiscal year 2023 spending. Zoom out: Louisiana, meanwhile, received an average of about $1.4 billion from 2015 to 2024, covering 14 disasters. That's equal to 6.3% of the state's spending in 2023. Florida got $2.1 billion a year on average during that time, equal to 2.8% of the state's 2023 spending. And Texas got $1.4 billion, equal to 1.8% of its 2023 spending. What they're saying: "Up to now, when there is a disaster, the government responds. They clean up the debris, they rebuild the schools, they run shelters, they clean the drinking water," says Sarah Labowitz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who led this analysis. "All of that is supported by a federal disaster relief ecosystem that spreads the risk around the country, spreads the costs around the country. And if we stop spreading the costs around the country, then it's going to fall on states, and it's going to fall on states really unevenly." "We as a disaster response sector, certainly we as an agency, need our federal partners," adds Katie Mears, senior technical specialist at Episcopal Relief and Development, the aid and relief wing of the Episcopal Church. "We understand the need for reform, but we can't do this without support from all the different federal players." Friction point: The Trump administration is already using disaster relief as leverage to extract political concessions. HUD Secretary Scott Turner recently blasted the city of Asheville's draft proposal for $225 million for Hurricane Helene relief, which included language about prioritizing assistance for minority- and women-owned businesses. "DEI is dead at HUD," Turner said in a statement. "We will not provide funding to any program or grantee that does not comply with President Trump's executive orders," referring to Trump's January move to dismantle federal diversity, equity and inclusion programs. The big picture: "I think we're all in agreement about [FEMA] reform, but let's do it smartly and be able at the same time to complete the mission," Pete Gaynor, who ran FEMA for about two years during Trump's first term, tells Axios. Part of FEMA's utility, Gaynor says, is directing not just money but people, including relief experts who can be dispatched to states as needed after disaster strikes. But he's concerned about an exodus of FEMA staffers, in part tied to Trump's broader purge of federal workers. More than 200 of FEMA's 20,000-plus staffers have been fired, NPR reports. "Where does this goal of reform stop before it's too late and you lose these capabilities that have been critical over time?" Gaynor says. "There has been and will continue to be a departure of [senior leaders] that have been at FEMA for 25-30 years, experts at everything — they leave, and you have a freeze on hiring, or you instill fear into the workforce, that's going to hurt." "And you know who it's going to hurt first? It's going to hurt the disaster survivor — that's where it hurts." What's next: "We really need to be proactive in making sure that we lay down some principles that reform should follow to make sure the result is positive," Gaynor says.
Axios
03-03-2025
- Business
- Axios
Report: North Carolina will be 7th most populous state by 2030
North Carolina is on pace to become the seventh largest state in the country in the next decade, as the state's population will reach 11.7 million by 2030, new projections show. Why it matters: That level of growth would gain North Carolina yet another congressional seat, and put it ahead of Georgia and Ohio in population size, state demographer Michael Cline said in an analysis released by the Office of State Budget and Management last month. Driving the news: Cline also projected that North Carolina's population would grow by some 4.3 million — the size of the Triangle and Triad's populations combined — in the next 35 years, reaching 15.4 million by 2060. The big picture: Most of North Carolina's growth within the last decade has come from the number of transplants moving into the state. Close to half — 47% — of the state's population was born outside North Carolina, according to the 2023 American Community Survey. That number will only grow in the coming years, as will the number of foreign born residents, which was 9% in the census' 2023 estimate. The state is also projected to become significantly more diverse as it grows. North Carolina's minorities could represent close to half of the state, at 48%, by 2060 — up from 39% in 2020. Zoom in: North Carolina is expected to become significantly more urban by 2030, with Wake County's population projected to grow by close to 10%. Johnston County is projected to grow by 13.4%, and Lee and Harnett are expected to grow so much that they will no longer be classified as rural, according to the analysis. Many rural counties are expected to see continuing population declines, however. Between the lines: North Carolina's growing urban areas and suburbs have long kept afloat Democrats' hopes that the state would someday turn from purple to blue, but the 2024 election, in which cities across the country shifted red, has poked a hole in that theory. The intrigue: Thanks in part to a decline in the state's birth rate, 1 in 5 North Carolinians will be 65 or older by 2030, according to the report. And soon enough, North Carolina will have more older adults (65 and up) than children.
Yahoo
25-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
NC Senate leader files bill requiring state law enforcement to cooperate with ICE
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The leader of the North Carolina Senate is moving forward with a new bill that will require state law enforcement officials to cooperate with federal immigration laws. Senate Bill 153, known as the 'North Carolina Border Protection Act', was filed by Senate Leader Phil Berger (R-Rockingham), state Sen. Warren Daniel (R-Burke), and state Sen. Buck Newton (R-Wilson) Monday. According to Berger's office, the bill will do the following: State law enforcement agencies, including the Department of Public Safety, Department of Adult Correction, State Highway Patrol, and State Bureau of Investigation, are required to enter into memorandums of agreement with the director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to fully cooperate with immigration laws. State law enforcement agencies are required to determine the immigration status of anyone under their custody or supervision. The Office of State Budget and Management is required to determine if state-funded public benefit programs are being provided to authorized immigrations and post its findings publicly. The Office of State Budget and Management is required to to ensure state-funded public benefits are only being provided to those who qualify for them. Any county or municipality that creates sanctuary cities will have its local immunity waived, allowing citizens harmed by illegal immigrants to sue them. University of North Carolina System campuses are prohibited from adopting policies that do not cooperate with federal immigration enforcement and/or adopting sanctuary school policies. 'North Carolinians are seeing the harmful impacts of open-border policies from dangerous drug trafficking to criminal, illegal immigrants being released from jail to roam our streets freely,' Berger said in a statement. 'North Carolinians made it clear that they will no longer tolerate sanctuary policies that put them at risk. We must send an equally strong message by requiring Gov. [Josh] Stein's administration to cooperate with immigration officials.' North Carolina legislators previously passed a bill requiring sheriffs to cooperate with ICE by detaining suspects believed to be in the country illegally. The bill became law last December. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
16-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NC's new governor: After state revenue forecast, Stein warns of ‘fiscal cliff'
North Carolina's consensus revenue forecast came out Friday afternoon, which sets the stage for how much money the state is expected to be able to spend this year. After years of sunny forecasts and healthy revenue surpluses, clouds have arrived. Welcome to the Sunday Under the Dome newsletter, which focuses on new Gov. Josh Stein. I'm Dawn Vaughan, The News & Observer's Capitol bureau chief. This joint revenue forecast is the consensus between the Office of State Budget and Management, which is a Stein Cabinet agency, and the Legislative Fiscal Research Division, which is comprised of nonpartisan staff at the General Assembly. The forecast covers the next two fiscal years, 2025-2027. The biggest work of the General Assembly's long session this year will be to pass a state budget and send it to Stein's desk to sign, veto or let become law without his signature. Stein already warned of 'less revenue, greater demands' looming, mainly because of how much money the state will likely need to spend on Hurricane Helene relief in Western North Carolina. The forecast does include a current surplus, with about half a billion dollars more expected before the new fiscal year starts July 1. The forecast anticipates an extra $544 million, which is 1.6% more than anticipated. That's because of 'more robust economic growth and financial conditions' than foreseen in the last forecast in May 2024, along with investment income, the corporate income tax and continued growth in wages and consumer spending. Now come the rain clouds, however: For 2025-2026, the forecast shows a year-over-year growth rate of just 0.5%, followed by a 2.4% drop in 2026-2027. 'Economic factors exerting upward pressure on the forecast are outweighed by downward pressure from reductions in the individual and corporate income tax rates, resulting in negligible growth in FY 2025-26 and a decline in FY 2026-27,' OSBM and Fiscal Research wrote. Here's what Stein said about it in a statement: 'While today's consensus revenue forecast for this year is positive, North Carolina is approaching a fiscal cliff that threatens our ability to invest in rebuilding western North Carolina, strong public schools, people's health, infrastructure, and other services we need to make North Carolina safer and stronger. 'With a growing economy and population, it doesn't have to be this way. I am committed to working with the legislature to develop solutions that allow us to continue to invest in our state's future.' The first round of Appropriations Committee meetings start Tuesday at the General Assembly, including a discussion of the revenue forecast on Wednesday. Budget season has begun. Lawmakers' goal, though they often don't reach it, is to send a budget bill to the governor's desk by the end of June. Stein has added more staff, including those who he worked with previously at the N.C. Department of Justice and those who worked for former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Here are the latest staff additions: ▪ Adam Chandler, policy director, previously worked at the U.S. Department of Justice as associate deputy attorney general and chief of staff to the deputy attorney general. ▪ Kindl Detar, senior policy adviser, who previously worked at N.C. DOJ. ▪ Sadie Weiner, senior adviser, who led communications for Cooper. ▪ Awo Eni, digital director, who worked on Cheri Beasley's 2022 Senate campaign. ▪ Liz Doherty, policy adviser, who was also policy adviser for Cooper when he was governor and communications director for Cooper's 2020 campaign. ▪ Rania Hassan, policy analyst, who had the same job for Cooper. ▪ Madhu Vulimiri, senior adviser for health and families policy, who previously worked at the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services. ▪ Elena Ashburn, senior adviser for education policy, who was an area superintendent for the Wake County Public School System. ▪ Jonathan Moch, senior adviser for climate and energy policy, who previously worked at the U.S. Department of State. ▪ P.J. Connelly, director of the Governor's Eastern North Carolina Office, who had the same job for Cooper. Coming up Monday on our Under the Dome podcast, I interview new Labor Commissioner Luke Farley, a Republican. We talk about elevators, raises he wants for elevator and safety inspectors, changes in diversity, equity and inclusion metrics, how he got Cherie Berry's endorsement and more. Not a subscriber? Sign up on our website to receive Under the Dome in your inbox daily.
Yahoo
15-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Economists predict modest North Carolina surplus, but warn more tax cuts will curb revenues
North Carolina officials on Friday projected a modest revenue surplus this fiscal year, the result of stronger than anticipated economic conditions, but warned soon-implemented tax cuts should mean lower collections ahead, which could require tougher spending choices. Gov. Stein proposes $1B budget for Helene recovery, rebuilding Economists working in new Democratic Gov. Josh Stein's administration and at the Republican-controlled General Assembly predict that state government collections will outpace revenue levels agreed upon last spring for the year ending June 30 by $544 million. That's a 1.6% increase above the $34.2 billion figure, according to Stein's Office of State Budget and Management. The General Fund overcollections are attributed largely to higher than expected income tax revenue based on growth in wages, profits and consumer spending, according to memos from the legislature's Fiscal Research Division and the state budget office. But the memos said additional income tax rate cuts enacted largely by GOP legislators and taking effect soon will curb revenue collections. Economists estimate it will result in only slight year-over-year revenue growth for the next fiscal year with a 2.4% — or $823 million — reduction for the year starting July 1, 2026. The consensus forecast, which will be reviewed in the spring to account for April 15 collections, serves as the initial baseline that Stein and GOP lawmakers will use in respective spending proposals in the months ahead. Combined with the major needs associated with Hurricane Helene, the forecast is likely to validate for Democrats arguments that the future tax reductions should be repealed for corporations and high wage earners and a new law greatly expanding taxpayer-funded grants for children to attend private school should be pulled back. State law has dropped the corporate income tax rate from 2.5% in 2024 to 2.25% this year, and it's poised to fall to 2% in 2026. And laws reducing the individual income tax rate from 4.5% in 2024 to 4.25% this year will decrease it to 3.99% in 2026 and potentially 3.49% in 2027. The General Assembly already has spent close to an additional $1 billion on the Helene recovery in western counties since October. While lawmakers are now considering a bill to spend $500 million more on such aid, Stein sought more than twice that amount. While the 'forecast for this year is positive, North Carolina is approaching a fiscal cliff that threatens our ability to invest in rebuilding western North Carolina, strong public schools, people's health, infrastructure, and other services we need to make North Carolina safer and stronger,' Stein said in a news release while committing to work with legislators to 'develop solutions.' After three consecutive years in which the state budget office said revenues exceeded budgeted amounts by at least 10%, revenue collections during the fiscal year that ended last June 30 actually fell slightly short of budgeted levels. GOP budget-writers may have to locate spending reductions in the next two-year budget to make up for anticipated lower revenues. State coffers still contain billions of dollars in reserves, however. Republicans have said that previous Democratic admontitions that lowered tax rates would result in budget crises haven't come to pass. The 'forecast confirms that North Carolina's economy continues to grow and that the General Assembly's fiscal policies and tax cuts are a success. The anticipated surplus reflects that,' Lauren Horsch, a spokesperson for Senate leader Phil Berger, wrote in an email. 'Gov. Stein's fearmongering is nothing more than an attempt to pull our state back to an era of reckless tax-and-spend policies.' North Carolina legislators are starting budget committee work next week. With Republicans no longer holding a veto-proof majority, Stein's veto could hold more sway in negotiating a spending plan more to his liking as long as all Democrats stay united behind him. VIDEO: Gov. Stein announces executive order over reproductive rights Sign in to access your portfolio
