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Mint
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Mint
Pakistan's diplomatic victory conceals its weakness
Nothing boosts a Pakistani general's flagging domestic popularity like being able to claim he won a confrontation with his country's archenemy, India. Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief, has been on a victory lap since President Trump announced an abrupt end to a four-day subcontinental conflict May 10. On Tuesday the Pakistani government promoted Mr. Munir to field marshal, a self-promotion for the country's most powerful man. Mr. Munir has emerged stronger from his confrontation with India, but the same can't be said of his country. Though Pakistan may have scored diplomatic points, beneath its breathless claim of victory lie inconvenient facts. By striking terrorist infrastructure and air bases deep in Pakistan's heartland, and by suspending a 65-year-old bilateral river water-sharing treaty, India has weakened Pakistan's strategic position. For the U.S., the simmering conflict presents challenges and opportunities. A successful U.S. strategy in the region would achieve two interconnected goals: curbing the Pakistani army's support for transnational jihadist groups and ensuring that any subcontinental conflict doesn't go nuclear. America must also recognize that China's military and diplomatic support for Pakistan has made the subcontinent a site of U.S.-China competition. Nearly three years ago, when Mr. Munir became army chief—the most powerful position in a country where generals call the shots—he was widely seen as an outsider with a shaky grip on power. Unlike many of his predecessors, Mr. Munir entered the army through the Officers Training School rather than the more prestigious Pakistan Military Academy. The son of a schoolteacher who doubled as an imam, Mr. Munir advertises his piety. He uses the honorific hafiz, given to those who have memorized the Quran. Unlike many predecessors, Mr. Munir wasn't trained in the U.S. or U.K. His foreign exposure was mostly limited to serving in Saudi Arabia when that country was still synonymous with hard-line Islam. Mr. Munir became chief after a feud between the army and former Prime Minister Imran Khan, a 72-year-old charismatic populist who became prime minister with the army's help in 2018 but later fell out with Mr. Munir's predecessor, Qamar Javed Bajwa. Mr. Bajwa reportedly helped oust Mr. Khan in 2022. Mr. Bajwa and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif saw Mr. Munir as a safe pick because Mr. Khan and Mr. Munir had clashed during the latter's brief tenure as head of the country's military spy agency in 2018-19. Mr. Munir had reportedly angered the prime minister by investigating alleged corruption by his wife. Despite Mr. Khan's popularity, the army outmaneuvered him. Since August 2023, Mr. Khan has been imprisoned on a raft of charges, most of them widely seen by independent observers as politically motivated. In an interview last week, Mr. Khan's sons, who live in England, alleged that their father has been kept in solitary confinement and denied basic rights such as medical care and regular phone calls with family. The persecution of Mr. Khan made Mr. Munir arguably the most unpopular Pakistani army chief in living memory—that is, until India bombed nine 'terrorist infrastructure" sites on May 7 in retaliation for a terrorist attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir. The conflict has allowed Mr. Munir to reinvent himself as a hero. The version of events publicized in Pakistan goes like this: First, India lost at least five fighter jets in its initial attack on May 7, including three French-made Rafales, the most advanced jet in India's air force. Second, Mr. Trump's Truth Social post announcing the cease-fire and his subsequent remarks about the conflict handed Pakistan a clear diplomatic victory. This account contains some truth. India has admitted to losing fighter jets, though it hasn't said how many. Reporting by the Washington Post suggests India likely lost at least two jets. And Mr. Trump has indeed set back Indian diplomacy by casting India and Pakistan as peers and offering to mediate their dispute over Kashmir. But if you look past Indian embarrassment, the balance clearly tilts in New Delhi's favor. India has shown that it can hit targets across Pakistan at will, raising questions about the effectiveness of Pakistan's Chinese-made air defenses. Indian air defenses largely neutralized hundreds of Pakistani drones and missiles. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12 announced a new doctrine according to which India 'will not differentiate between the government sponsoring terrorism and the masterminds of terrorism." India says the current lull in fighting isn't a permanent cease-fire but a temporary 'suspension of military operations." In the coming months and years, India will almost certainly seek to increase its capacity to pressure Pakistan by building dams on shared rivers. For now, the Pakistani army's skilled public-relations machinery may have turned the once-unpopular army chief into a hero at home. But looked at dispassionately, it's hard to see how Field Marshal Asim Munir has made Pakistan any safer.
Daily Tribune
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Tribune
General Asim Munir: The Man Behind Pakistan's Military Voice Amid Rising Kashmir Tensions
Pakistan's Army Chief, General Asim Munir, known for his quiet authority and aversion to public attention, has recently found himself at the center of regional and diplomatic discourse. His strong statements on Kashmir, delivered shortly before a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, have drawn fresh scrutiny to the military's posture and its growing role in regional tensions. The disputed territory of Kashmir has long remained a volatile flashpoint between India and Pakistan since their partition in 1947. Though not directly linked to the April 22 attack in Pahalgam that left 26 civilians dead, Gen Munir's remarks just days earlier are being interpreted as a shift toward a more hardline stance by Pakistan's military leadership. On April 17, addressing a gathering of Pakistani expatriates in Islamabad, Gen Munir reiterated Pakistan's historic narrative on Kashmir, calling it the country's 'jugular vein' and pledging unwavering support for Kashmiris 'in their heroic struggle against Indian occupation.' While consistent with past rhetoric, analysts argue the tone of his address was more confrontational than customary and especially inflammatory when viewed against the backdrop of the subsequent violence. A Career Built on Strategy and Secrecy Gen Munir, a hafiz of the Qur'an and son of a school principal, rose through the military ranks with distinction. He earned the Sword of Honour as the top cadet at Pakistan's Officers Training School in Mangla and later served in strategic roles including commanding forces in northern areas near Kashmir, leading the ISI intelligence agency, and working in Saudi Arabia to bolster bilateral defense ties. He holds a master's degree in public policy and strategic security and has studied at military institutions in Japan and Malaysia. Appointed army chief in November 2022 during a politically turbulent period, Gen Munir replaced Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. Unlike his predecessor, who was known for promoting backchannel diplomacy with India, Gen Munir appears less inclined toward extended engagement and more focused on reasserting military authority at home and abroad. His appointment was also notable for following a fallout with former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who had removed him as ISI chief after just eight months. Now, with Khan imprisoned and Munir firmly at the helm, observers say the general is taking decisive steps to consolidate power and restore the military's central influence. Hardening Stance and Strategic Messaging While Gen Bajwa's 'Bajwa Doctrine' emphasized regional stability and economic diplomacy, Gen Munir is believed to face more immediate pressure — from domestic unrest, resurging terrorism, and economic instability — prompting him to adopt a firmer, swifter approach. His February 5 speech in Muzaffarabad on Kashmir Solidarity Day underscored this tone: 'Pakistan has already fought three wars for Kashmir, and if 10 more wars are required, Pakistan will fight them.' Though dramatic, it was his April comments that have been deemed more provocative due to their timing and perceived implications in the wake of the Pahalgam attack. Experts warn that the speech has undermined Pakistan's claims of restraint and made diplomatic engagement with India more difficult. 'The substance may align with traditional policy, but the rhetoric came across as overtly aggressive,' said Joshua T. White, a South Asia expert at Johns Hopkins University. A Power Play or Political Misstep? Some analysts see Gen Munir's remarks as a carefully calculated move to assert dominance — both domestically and regionally. 'It felt like a declaration that Pakistan's direction is back in the hands of the military,' noted security analyst Abdul Basit. Since assuming command, Gen Munir has overseen a crackdown on political unrest, especially following the May 9, 2023 riots after Khan's arrest. His response included trying civilians under military law, retiring a top general, and arresting former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed. Critics view it as a purge of Khan loyalists; others see it as re-establishing discipline in an institution that had come under public criticism. With India accusing Pakistan of aiding the Pahalgam attackers — a charge Islamabad denies — tensions are once again simmering in the nuclear-armed region. In this climate, Gen Munir's words carry far beyond Islamabad. His rhetoric, his silence, and his actions are now shaping not only Pakistan's internal trajectory but also its increasingly complex relationship with its neighbors.
Saudi Gazette
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Saudi Gazette
Pakistan army chief's Kashmir remarks cause anger in India
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, is not known for seeking the spotlight. Yet in recent weeks, it has found him — not only in Pakistan, but across the border in India and in diplomatic capitals far beyond. His remarks on Kashmir — made just days before a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir which killed 26 people — have reignited a debate over Pakistan's military stance and its role in rising regional tensions. Kashmir, which India and Pakistan claim in full but administer only in part, has been a flashpoint between the countries since they were partitioned in 1947. Though not directly linked to the violence, Gen Munir's words have been dissected and interpreted as a shift towards a more confrontational tone, both from him and the institution he leads. He is viewed as the most powerful man in Pakistan, where the military has long been blamed for interfering in politics, installing and removing governments. As tensions with India rise again, he is being watched as the central figure in a volatile nuclear-armed rivalry. Gen. Munir, who is in his late 50s, is the son of a school principal and religious scholar. He joined the army through the Officers Training School in Mangla in 1986, earning the prestigious Sword of Honour given to the best-performing cadet. He was then commissioned into the 23 Frontier Force Regiment. Over nearly four decades, Gen. Munir has commanded troops along Pakistan's sensitive northern borders near Kashmir, led its intelligence services and served in Saudi Arabia to bolster defense ties. He holds a master's degree in public policy and strategic security management from the National Defense University in Islamabad and is also an alumnus of military institutions in Japan and Malaysia. This writer first saw Gen Munir in Islamabad in 2023, at a packed hotel hall filled with ministers, diplomats, generals and journalists. Dressed in civilian clothes, he moved with calm authority, scanning the room as he approached the podium. He opened his speech with a recitation from the Qur'an, reflecting his rare status as a hafiz — someone who has memorized Islam's holy book in its entirety — among Pakistan's military elite. In person, Gen Munir seemed soft-spoken and polite. On stage, he was stern, with the sharp gaze of a former spymaster. A man trained to watch, listen and wait. Now, his words are echoing beyond Pakistan. Gen Munir became Pakistan's chief of army staff in November 2022, stepping into the role amid a perfect storm of political upheaval, an economic crisis and public disillusionment with the military's role in governance. His appointment followed months of speculation, largely because of his fallout with the then-prime minister Imran Khan. Gen Munir had served just eight months as the chief of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency before being removed by Khan in what many believe was a deeply personal and political move — though both sides deny this. That moment remains a turning point in their relationship. Today, Khan is serving a sentence in jail and Gen Munir is the most powerful man in the country. Gen Munir is regarded by many commentators as differing in temperament and approach from his immediate predecessor, Qamar Javed Bajwa. Gen Bajwa was more public-facing, supported backchannel diplomacy with India and handled a major escalation of tensions between the countries in 2019 with caution. Under what came to be known as the "Bajwa Doctrine", he increasingly emphasised regional stability and geo-economics alongside traditional security priorities. After a suicide bomb attack on troops in Indian-administered Kashmir at Pulwama in 2019, Gen Bajwa oversaw Pakistan's military response to Indian air raids but refrained from escalation, returning Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman and helping avert a full-blown war. "Bajwa was clear," says Abdul Basit, senior fellow at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. "He had diplomatic channels open and was managing multiple fronts like Kashmir, Afghanistan and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with pragmatism," he said, adding that Gen Munir "is under immediate, intense pressure to act". "He has come in with unfinished business to stabilize the country's security situation internally... The problems he faces (rising terrorism, political instability, an economic crisis, regional tensions) are urgent and worsening. He cannot afford long, drawn-out strategies like his predecessor Bajwa could. He needs quicker, firmer responses - both at home and abroad." The dispute over Kashmir is an issue that no Pakistani military leader can appear weak on, observers say. "Kashmir is Pakistan's national security interest — every child in Pakistani schools is taught this," political and defense analyst Amir Zia told the BBC, adding: "It's a basic understanding here that we cannot give India any leverage." Last week's attack was the deadliest on civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir in two decades and led to India accusing Pakistan of supporting the attackers, charges Islamabad denies. There are fears India will respond with military action. Since he took over, Gen Munir has mostly not spoken in public, but one pivotal speech has gained widespread attention. On 17 April, he told a meeting of expatriates in Islamabad he doubled down on Kashmir, calling it Pakistan's "jugular vein", and vowed Pakistan would "never abandon Kashmiris in their heroic struggle against Indian occupation". The speech might have remained one of many ideological statements made by Pakistani leaders over the years except for what happened next. Just five days later, on 22 April, militants opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. "This was not standard rhetoric," says Joshua T White, a South Asia expert at Johns Hopkins University. "While the substance aligns with Pakistan's ideological narrative, the tone - especially its direct invocation of Hindu-Muslim differences — made it particularly inflammatory." "Coming just before the Pahalgam attack, it has badly complicated any effort by Pakistan to claim restraint or pursue backchannel diplomacy," he adds. Basit agrees the optics were damaging: "He [Munir] may have been caught up in the moment. He said things that, in a private setting, may not have raised eyebrows but on that public platform, as army chief, they came across as overtly confrontational." "Some saw it as a power move," says Basit. "It felt like his arrival moment. A declaration that he's now firmly in control, that Pakistan's direction is once again in the army's hands," he adds. Gen Munir made another speech earlier in the year, which some think may signal he is adopting a harder line than his predecessor. Speaking in Muzaffarabad on Kashmir Solidarity Day on 5 February, he declared: "Pakistan has already fought three wars for Kashmir, and if 10 more wars are required, Pakistan will fight them." But given the timing, it's his latest speech that has fuelled speculation after the Pahalgam attack, with Indian officials hinting at a link. Though no evidence has been presented so far, the rhetoric has deepened mistrust. At home, Gen Munir's actions are being seen by many as those of a leader who is calculated, uncompromising and determined to reassert military authority. After the 9 May 2023 riots sparked by Khan's arrest, Gen Munir launched an unprecedented crackdown on his supporters. Civilians were tried under military laws, a top general was forced into early retirement, and former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (retired), once close to Khan, was arrested. Critics called it a purge of Khan loyalists; supporters saw it as restoring discipline to Pakistan's powerful military whose authority – and that of Bajwa and Munir – had been challenged. The two men were being heavily criticized in public. Gen Munir is just over two years into his five-year term, but the contours of his legacy are already taking shape. Whether the simmering crisis with India escalates into a larger military stand-off or is tackled through diplomacy, the future of Pakistan's relationship with its neighbor may well hinge on which direction Gen Munir steers it in. Basit warns the next few weeks "will determine how things unfold". "How Gen Munir navigates this crisis will define him as a soldier, as a power broker, and what kind of regional actor Pakistan wants to be. And right now, that choice sits largely with him." — BBC
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Pakistan army chief's Kashmir remarks cause anger in India
Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, is not known for seeking the spotlight. Yet in recent weeks, it has found him - not only in Pakistan, but across the border in India and in diplomatic capitals far beyond. His remarks on Kashmir - made just days before a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir which killed 26 people - have reignited a debate over Pakistan's military stance and its role in rising regional tensions. Kashmir, which India and Pakistan claim in full but administer only in part, has been a flashpoint between the countries since they were partitioned in 1947. Though not directly linked to the violence, Gen Munir's words have been dissected and interpreted as a shift towards a more confrontational tone, both from him and the institution he leads. He is viewed as the most powerful man in Pakistan, where the military has long been blamed for interfering in politics, installing and removing governments. As tensions with India rise again, he is being watched as the central figure in a volatile nuclear-armed rivalry. So who is Gen Munir? And what drives him? Gen Munir, who is in his late 50s, is the son of a school principal and religious scholar. He joined the army through the Officers Training School in Mangla in 1986, earning the prestigious Sword of Honour given to the best-performing cadet. He was then commissioned into the 23 Frontier Force Regiment. Over nearly four decades, Gen Munir has commanded troops along Pakistan's sensitive northern borders near Kashmir, led its intelligence services and served in Saudi Arabia to bolster defence ties. He holds a masters degree in public policy and strategic security management from the National Defence University in Islamabad and is also an alumnus of military institutions in Japan and Malaysia. I first saw Gen Munir in Islamabad in 2023, at a packed hotel hall filled with ministers, diplomats, generals and journalists. Dressed in civilian clothes, he moved with calm authority, scanning the room as he approached the podium. He opened his speech with a recitation from the Quran, reflecting his rare status as a hafiz - someone who has memorised Islam's holy book in its entirety - among Pakistan's military elite. In person, Gen Munir seemed soft-spoken and polite. On stage, he was stern, with the sharp gaze of a former spymaster. A man trained to watch, listen and wait. Now, his words are echoing beyond Pakistan. Gen Munir became Pakistan's chief of army staff in November 2022, stepping into the role amid a perfect storm of political upheaval, an economic crisis and public disillusionment with the military's role in governance. His appointment followed months of speculation, largely because of his fallout with the then-prime minister Imran Khan. Gen Munir had served just eight months as the chief of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency before being removed by Khan in what many believe was a deeply personal and political move - though both sides deny this. That moment remains a turning point in their relationship. Today, Khan is serving a sentence in jail and Gen Munir is the most powerful man in the country. Gen Munir is regarded by many commentators as differing in temperament and approach from his immediate predecessor, Qamar Javed Bajwa. Gen Bajwa was more public-facing, supported backchannel diplomacy with India and handled a major escalation of tensions between the countries in 2019 with caution. Under what came to be known as the "Bajwa Doctrine", he increasingly emphasised regional stability and geo-economics alongside traditional security priorities. After a suicide bomb attack on troops in Indian-administered Kashmir at Pulwama in 2019, Gen Bajwa oversaw Pakistan's military response to Indian air raids but refrained from escalation, returning Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman and helping avert a full-blown war. "Bajwa was clear," says Abdul Basit, senior fellow at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. "He had diplomatic channels open and was managing multiple fronts like Kashmir, Afghanistan and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with pragmatism," he said, adding that Gen Munir "is under immediate, intense pressure to act". "He has come in with unfinished business to stabilise the country's security situation internally… The problems he faces (rising terrorism, political instability, an economic crisis, regional tensions) are urgent and worsening. He cannot afford long, drawn-out strategies like his predecessor Bajwa could. He needs quicker, firmer responses - both at home and abroad." The dispute over Kashmir is an issue that no Pakistani military leader can appear weak on, observers say. "Kashmir is Pakistan's national security interest - every child in Pakistani schools is taught this," political and defence analyst Amir Zia told the BBC, adding: "It's a basic understanding here that we cannot give India any leverage." Last week's attack was the deadliest on civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir in two decades and led to India accusing Pakistan of supporting the attackers, charges Islamabad denies. There are fears India will respond with military action. Since he took over, Gen Munir has mostly not spoken in public, but one pivotal speech has gained widespread attention. On 17 April, he told a meeting of expatriates in Islamabad "we are different from Hindus" in every possible way. He doubled down on Kashmir, calling it Pakistan's "jugular vein", and vowed Pakistan would "never abandon Kashmiris in their heroic struggle against Indian occupation". The speech might have remained one of many ideological statements made by Pakistani leaders over the years except for what happened next. Just five days later, on 22 April, militants opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. "This was not standard rhetoric," says Joshua T White, a South Asia expert at Johns Hopkins University. "While the substance aligns with Pakistan's ideological narrative, the tone - especially its direct invocation of Hindu-Muslim differences - made it particularly inflammatory." "Coming just before the Pahalgam attack, it has badly complicated any effort by Pakistan to claim restraint or pursue backchannel diplomacy," he adds. Mr Basit agrees the optics were damaging: "He [Munir] may have been caught up in the moment. He said things that, in a private setting, may not have raised eyebrows but on that public platform, as army chief, they came across as overtly confrontational." "Some saw it as a power move," says Mr Basit. "It felt like his arrival moment. A declaration that he's now firmly in control, that Pakistan's direction is once again in the army's hands," he adds. Gen Munir made another speech earlier in the year, which some think may signal he is adopting a harder line than his predecessor. Speaking in Muzaffarabad on Kashmir Solidarity Day on 5 February, he declared: "Pakistan has already fought three wars for Kashmir, and if 10 more wars are required, Pakistan will fight them." But given the timing, it's his latest speech that has fuelled speculation after the Pahalgam attack, with Indian officials hinting at a link. Though no evidence has been presented so far, the rhetoric has deepened mistrust. At home, Gen Munir's actions are being seen by many as those of a leader who is calculated, uncompromising and determined to reassert military authority. After the 9 May 2023 riots sparked by Khan's arrest, Gen Munir launched an unprecedented crackdown on his supporters. Civilians were tried under military laws, a top general was forced into early retirement, and former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (retired), once close to Khan, was arrested. Critics called it a purge of Khan loyalists; supporters saw it as restoring discipline to Pakistan's powerful military whose authority – and that of Bajwa and Munir – had been challenged. The two men were being heavily criticised in public. Gen Munir is just over two years into his five-year term, but the contours of his legacy are already taking shape. Whether the simmering crisis with India escalates into a larger military stand-off or is tackled through diplomacy, the future of Pakistan's relationship with its neighbour may well hinge on which direction Gen Munir steers it in. Mr Basit warns the next few weeks "will determine how things unfold". "How Gen Munir navigates this crisis will define him as a soldier, as a power broker, and what kind of regional actor Pakistan wants to be. And right now, that choice sits largely with him." Follow BBC News India on Instagram, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook.
BBC News
30-04-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Asim Munir: Pakistan army chief's Kashmir remarks cause anger in India
Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, is not known for seeking the in recent weeks, it has found him - not only in Pakistan, but across the border in India and in diplomatic capitals far remarks on Kashmir - made just days before a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir which killed 26 people - have reignited a debate over Pakistan's military stance and its role in rising regional which India and Pakistan claim in full but administer only in part, has been a flashpoint between the countries since they were partitioned in not directly linked to the violence, Gen Munir's words have been dissected and interpreted as a shift towards a more confrontational tone, both from him and the institution he is viewed as the most powerful man in Pakistan, where the military has long been blamed for interfering in politics, installing and removing governments. As tensions with India rise again, he is being watched as the central figure in a volatile nuclear-armed who is Gen Munir? And what drives him? Gen Munir, who is in his late 50s, is the son of a school principal and religious scholar. He joined the army through the Officers Training School in Mangla in 1986, earning the prestigious Sword of Honour given to the best-performing cadet. He was then commissioned into the 23 Frontier Force nearly four decades, Gen Munir has commanded troops along Pakistan's sensitive northern borders near Kashmir, led its intelligence services and served in Saudi Arabia to bolster defence holds a masters degree in public policy and strategic security management from the National Defence University in Islamabad and is also an alumnus of military institutions in Japan and Malaysia.I first saw Gen Munir in Islamabad in 2023, at a packed hotel hall filled with ministers, diplomats, generals and journalists. Dressed in civilian clothes, he moved with calm authority, scanning the room as he approached the opened his speech with a recitation from the Quran, reflecting his rare status as a hafiz - someone who has memorised Islam's holy book in its entirety - among Pakistan's military person, Gen Munir seemed soft-spoken and polite. On stage, he was stern, with the sharp gaze of a former spymaster. A man trained to watch, listen and wait. Now, his words are echoing beyond Munir became Pakistan's chief of army staff in November 2022, stepping into the role amid a perfect storm of political upheaval, an economic crisis and public disillusionment with the military's role in appointment followed months of speculation, largely because of his fallout with the then-prime minister Imran Munir had served just eight months as the chief of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency before being removed by Khan in what many believe was a deeply personal and political move - though both sides deny this. That moment remains a turning point in their Khan is serving a sentence in jail and Gen Munir is the most powerful man in the Munir is regarded by many commentators as differing in temperament and approach from his immediate predecessor, Qamar Javed Bajwa was more public-facing, supported backchannel diplomacy with India and handled a major escalation of tensions between the countries in 2019 with what came to be known as the "Bajwa Doctrine", he increasingly emphasised regional stability and geo-economics alongside traditional security a suicide bomb attack on troops in Indian-administered Kashmir at Pulwama in 2019, Gen Bajwa oversaw Pakistan's military response to Indian air raids but refrained from escalation, returning Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman and helping avert a full-blown war."Bajwa was clear," says Abdul Basit, senior fellow at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies."He had diplomatic channels open and was managing multiple fronts like Kashmir, Afghanistan and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with pragmatism," he said, adding that Gen Munir "is under immediate, intense pressure to act"."He has come in with unfinished business to stabilise the country's security situation internally… The problems he faces (rising terrorism, political instability, an economic crisis, regional tensions) are urgent and worsening. He cannot afford long, drawn-out strategies like his predecessor Bajwa could. He needs quicker, firmer responses - both at home and abroad." The dispute over Kashmir is an issue that no Pakistani military leader can appear weak on, observers say."Kashmir is Pakistan's national security interest - every child in Pakistani schools is taught this," political and defence analyst Amir Zia told the BBC, adding: "It's a basic understanding here that we cannot give India any leverage."Last week's attack was the deadliest on civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir in two decades and led to India accusing Pakistan of supporting the attackers, charges Islamabad denies. There are fears India will respond with military he took over, Gen Munir has mostly not spoken in public, but one pivotal speech has gained widespread 17 April, he told a meeting of expatriates in Islamabad "we are different from Hindus" in every possible doubled down on Kashmir, calling it Pakistan's "jugular vein", and vowed Pakistan would "never abandon Kashmiris in their heroic struggle against Indian occupation". The speech might have remained one of many ideological statements made by Pakistani leaders over the years except for what happened five days later, on 22 April, militants opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir."This was not standard rhetoric," says Joshua T White, a South Asia expert at Johns Hopkins University."While the substance aligns with Pakistan's ideological narrative, the tone - especially its direct invocation of Hindu-Muslim differences - made it particularly inflammatory.""Coming just before the Pahalgam attack, it has badly complicated any effort by Pakistan to claim restraint or pursue backchannel diplomacy," he Basit agrees the optics were damaging: "He [Munir] may have been caught up in the moment. He said things that, in a private setting, may not have raised eyebrows but on that public platform, as army chief, they came across as overtly confrontational.""Some saw it as a power move," says Mr Basit."It felt like his arrival moment. A declaration that he's now firmly in control, that Pakistan's direction is once again in the army's hands," he Munir made another speech earlier in the year, which some think may signal he is adopting a harder line than his predecessor. Speaking in Muzaffarabad on Kashmir Solidarity Day on 5 February, he declared: "Pakistan has already fought three wars for Kashmir, and if 10 more wars are required, Pakistan will fight them."But given the timing, it's his latest speech that has fuelled speculation after the Pahalgam attack, with Indian officials hinting at a link. Though no evidence has been presented so far, the rhetoric has deepened mistrust. At home, Gen Munir's actions are being seen by many as those of a leader who is calculated, uncompromising and determined to reassert military the 9 May 2023 riots sparked by Khan's arrest, Gen Munir launched an unprecedented crackdown on his were tried under military laws, a top general was forced into early retirement, and former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (retired), once close to Khan, was called it a purge of Khan loyalists; supporters saw it as restoring discipline to Pakistan's powerful military whose authority – and that of Bajwa and Munir – had been challenged. The two men were being heavily criticised in Munir is just over two years into his five-year term, but the contours of his legacy are already taking the simmering crisis with India escalates into a larger military stand-off or is tackled through diplomacy, the future of Pakistan's relationship with its neighbour may well hinge on which direction Gen Munir steers it Basit warns the next few weeks "will determine how things unfold"."How Gen Munir navigates this crisis will define him as a soldier, as a power broker, and what kind of regional actor Pakistan wants to be. And right now, that choice sits largely with him."Follow BBC News India on Instagram, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook.
