20-05-2025
7 Energy Winners in a Market Going Nowhere
Oil prices are stuck in a rut, with Brent hovering near $65 and WTI not far behind. The White House has dialed tariffs back—for now—but Washington's 150-country trade warning last week has traders and executives bracing for more volatility. But still, a handful of oil and gas stocks are proving they can still deliver, regardless of the current macro whiplash.
While the S&P Energy sector remains down slightly for the year, some names are either outperforming or building strong forward momentum.
Here's our latest Oil Stock Report Card, highlighting companies that continue to defend their cash flows, invest smartly, and keep shareholders happy with dividends and buybacks:
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
Exxon remains the benchmark. In Q1, the company averaged 4.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, beat EPS expectations at $1.76, and returned $9.1 billion to shareholders. Capital spending remains locked in at $28 to $33 billion annually through 2030. Exxon projects its breakeven Brent price to drop to $30 by the decade's end. That's a fortress balance sheet and a low-cost barrel in one package.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Chevron is pushing forward, too. It recently received a Buy upgrade from Argus with a $169 price target, citing undervaluation and long-term free cash flow growth. Q1 EPS came in at $2.18, topping forecasts. Shareholder returns were strong—$6.9 billion in the quarter—and the Hess acquisition is set to close soon. Chevron's break-even cost, around $30 per barrel, remains one of the best in Big Oil.
TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE)
France's oil giant is pivoting hard into LNG, renewables, and hydrogen, while still pumping out steady returns from upstream. Q1 revenue dropped, but EPS came in at $1.83 and LNG operations posted solid cash flow. The company's break-even point post-dividend is under $50, and it raised its interim dividend by 7.6%.EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT)
EQT is a U.S. natural gas powerhouse. The company posted a 44% year-on-year increase in per-share earnings and is projected to grow earnings over 100% in 2025. With strong operational discipline and strategic hedging, EQT is the top gas play in a market short on good ones.
Shell (NYSE: SHEL)
Shell has quietly become a turnaround story. The stock has trailed the pack, but it's underpinned by global LNG strength and a cleaned-up balance sheet. If oil prices rise or Europe leans harder into LNG imports, Shell is well-positioned to benefit.
Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG)
Diamondback has built a reputation for operating discipline and capital efficiency. Focused on the Permian, it's maintaining profitability even at $60 oil. A 12% return so far in 2025 reflects confidence in the model.
Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST)
This Latin American player is small-cap but fast-moving. Despite volatility in Argentina, Vista's U.S. listing and tight operations in Argentina and Mexico have drawn investor interest. It's up 18% YTD and gaining ground as a stealth growth name.
Analyst Outlook: Navigating a Complex Energy Landscape
While these companies demonstrate resilience, the broader oil market faces significant headwinds.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990,000 barrels per day in Q1 2025 to 650,000 barrels per day for the remainder of the year, influenced by economic challenges and record electric vehicle sales.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline in global oil prices through the end of 2026, citing increased supply from OPEC+ and heightened recession risks stemming from a global trade war, particularly between the U.S. and China. The investment bank projects Brent crude will average $63 per barrel in 2025 and fall to $58 in 2026. On Monday, Goldman upgraded its global oil demand forecast, upping it by 600,000 bpd for this year, and by 400,000 bpd in 2026, though price prediction remained unchanged, and the move may have contributed some to easing the oil sell-off.
Morgan Stanley anticipates that global oil inventories will start to increase in 2025, growing 0.5 million barrels per day on average in the second quarter before increasing by 0.7 million barrels per day in Q4. This accumulation is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude oil prices forecasted to fall from an average of $76 per barrel in Q1 2025 to an average of $61 per barrel by Q4 2025.
In this environment, companies with low breakeven costs, diversified portfolios, and disciplined capital allocation are better positioned to weather the storm. Investors should remain vigilant, focusing on firms that demonstrate operational efficiency and adaptability in the face of market volatility.
By Alex Kimani for
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