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Business Recorder
15-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Chicago soybeans retreat from near 10-month highs as soyoil slumps; wheat rises
BEIJING: Chicago soybean futures slipped from near 10-month highs on Thursday, weighed down by a sharp drop in soyoil as falling crude oil prices and mounting uncertainty over the U.S. biofuel policy pressured the market. Soyoil futures dropped 5.18% to 49.61 cents per pound, the steepest daily decline since June 2023, partly due to weaker crude oil prices following a surprise U.S. inventory build and renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. Soybeans slipped 0.93% to $10.68 per bushel, snapping a five-session winning streak. The market had drawn support from a Monday proposal to extend the biofuel tax credit (45Z), which underpins demand for soyoil in renewable diesel production. Shifting expectations about U.S. biodiesel policy have disrupted the soyoil market, with rumours of lower-than-expected target for biomass diesel mandates and delays in biofuel tax credit rule-making adding to market uncertainty. Optimism over a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war lent some support to soybean prices, but traders and analystswarned of uncertainty ahead of the U.S. marketing season. On Wednesday, agribusiness consultancy AgResource warned U.S. soybean exports may drop 20% and that prices will plunge if the U.S. and China fail to resolve their trade dispute. Soybeans, corn up on US-China trade optimism; wheat flat Corn rose 0.34% to $4.47 per bushel, supported by concerns about potential unfavourable weather during the U.S. summer. In rival supplier Brazil, 2024-25 corn output is estimated to be about 125 million metric tons, according to the Brazilian Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers. Wheat rose 0.57% to $5.27-6/8 a bushel, stabilizing after hitting its lowest in nearly five years on Wednesday. 'Wheat is just stabilising after a big run-up overnight, said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney, adding that prices will likely strengthen further due to dryness concerns in hard red winter wheat growing areas. Traders are awaiting the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, due later in the day. Commodity funds were net buyers of corn, wheat, soybean and soyoil futures contracts on Wednesday, traders said. They were net sellers of soymeal futures, traders said.
Business Recorder
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Soybeans ease from three-month peak, wheat hits lowest since 2020 on supply pressure
BEIJING/PARIS: Chicago soybeans edged down on Tuesday after hitting a three-month high in the previous session following a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war and a bullish U.S. Department of Agriculture report. Wheat futures extended losses to their lowest since 2020 as higher than expected forecast of U.S. stocks and a sharp improvement in U.S. crop conditions added to supply pressure. Corn also fell. The most-active CBOT soybean contract was down 0.2% at $10.68-3/4 a bushel by 1206 GMT, consolidating below Monday's three-month peak of $10.74-3/4. Broader financial markets were also more subdued on Tuesday as investors assessed whether Monday's agreement announced by Washington and Beijing to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs would lead to a lasting improvement in trade relations. Monday's deal buoyed the soybean market, in which China dominates global imports, by boosting hopes for revived Chinese demand for U.S. farm goods. Later in the day, the USDA's supply and demand report estimated 2025-26 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 295 million bushels, lower than analysts' 362 million bushels estimate. Wheat steady-down 7 cents, corn steady-down 4, soybeans steady-down 5 For 2024-25, U.S. soy stocks were pegged at 350 million bushels, below April's forecast of 375 million bushels and analysts' expectations of 369 million bushels. CBOT wheat fell 1.5% to $5.07-1/2 a bushel, after earlier reaching the lowest on a continuation chart since August 2020 at $5.06-1/4. Individual delivery months for wheat set new contract lows. The USDA projected U.S. 2025-26 wheat ending stocks above analyst estimates, contributing to a slight expected increase in global stocks. 'In the most important exporting countries, there is likely to be an increase in stocks, for which the U.S. in particular is expected to be responsible,' Commerzbank analysts said. In a separate report issued after Monday's close, the USDA also estimated that the condition of U.S. winter wheat crops improved sharply last week. CBOT Corn dipped 0.8% to $4.44-1/4 per bushel. The USDA forecast U.S. corn stocks will increase next season on the back of a bumper crop, but its stocks projections for both 2024-25 and 2025-26 were lower than the market consensus. 'Corn is trying to react to a bullish global USDA report longer term versus an increase in the U.S. corn stocks and market doing very little as they balance each other out,' said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney.
Business Recorder
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Soybean futures stabilise on US-China trade war truce; wheat dips on USDA report
BEIJING: Chicago soybean futures eased on Tuesday, after hitting a three-month high in the previous session following a temporary truce in the US-China trade war and a bullish US Department of Agriculture report. The most-active CBOT soybean contract eased 0.3% to $10.68 a bushel, as of 0248 GMT, following three sessions of gains. On Monday, China and the US reached a deal to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs, boosting hopes for revived Chinese demand for US farm goods. The USDA's supply and demand report estimated 2025-26 US soybean ending stocks at 295 million bushels, lower than analysts' 362 million bushels estimate. For 2024-25, US soy stocks were pegged at 350 million bushels, below April's forecast of 375 million bushels and analysts' expectations of 369 million bushels. China's benchmark Dalian soymeal futures rose 0.21% on the bullish USDA report, shrugging off news of a temporary truce in the China-US trade war, as analysts cautioned that uncertainty could persist ahead of the US soybean marketing season. The Asian nation projected a decline in soybean imports for the 2025/26 crop year due to reduced soymeal use in its livestock sector. Wheat fell 0.58% to $5.12 a bushel, near lifetime lows, pressured by high US and global wheat stocks in the USDA report, weak exports, and favourable weather. The USDA estimated both US and global 2025-26 wheat ending stocks above analyst estimates. Soybeans, corn up on US-China trade optimism; wheat flat 'We think that wheat has overshot to the downside enough and US wheat is the cheapest in the world so it will find solid demand at these levels,' said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney. Corn dipped 0.06% to $4.48 per bushel. 'Corn is trying to react to a bullish global USDA report longer term versus an increase in the US corn stocks and market doing very little as they balance each other out,' Houe added. The USDA projects US corn ending stocks at 1.415 billion bushels for September 1, 2025, down from 1.465 billion bushels in April, and below analysts' 1.443 billion bushels estimate.
Reuters
14-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
China set for rapeseed meal shortage after 100% duty on top supplier Canada
BEIJING, March 14 (Reuters) - China is likely to face a supply shortage of rapeseed meal by the third quarter of this year as Beijing's tariffs on shipments from top exporter Canada disrupt trade and as alternative sources are unlikely to make up the deficit. Rapeseed meal futures traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have jumped more than 8% since Beijing announced on Saturday a 100% retaliatory tariff on imports of rapeseed meal and oil from Canada effective March 20. "The introduction of this tax increase policy instantly broke the original trade balance," consultancy Mysteel wrote in a note. Chinese tariffs on rapeseed meal and oil came as a surprise to the industry which had been expecting higher duties instead on the oilseed since Beijing started an anti-dumping investigation in September into shipments from Canada. "Everybody was expecting authorities to announce duties on rapeseed but we were all taken by surprise when this announcement came on oil and meal," said one trader in Singapore. "It is going to hit feed processors hard as they were looking at importing larger volumes of Canadian meal instead of the oilseed." Rapeseed is an oilseed crop which is processed into oil for cooking and a variety of other products, including renewable fuels, while the remaining rapeseed meal is used as high-protein animal feed and fertilizer. China relies on top grower Canada for more than 70% of its rapeseed meal imports and nearly all of the oilseed imports. Rapeseed is also known as canola. For now, China has ample supply of rapeseed, meal and oil after hefty imports in the fourth quarter last year, buffering against an immediate supply shock. But traders and analysts warned of an impending shortage by the third quarter of this year when the stockpile depletes. LIMITED INTERNATIONAL AVAILABILITY Chinese customs allows rapeseed meal imports from 11 countries, including Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Japan, Ethiopia, Australia, India and Belarus, providing options for alternative supplies. But availability of the product is limited in the international market. In 2024, China imported 2.02 million metric tons of the meal from Canada, followed by 504,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates and 135,000 tons from Russia, according to customs data. Some of China's demand could shift to Russia, Ukraine or India, but these countries are unlikely to be able to fully satisfy Chinese appetite, traders and analysts said. "No country really has the scale Canada has," Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney, said. Australia, the world's second-biggest rapeseed exporter, does not have much surplus or the crushing capacity to significantly raise its rapeseed meal exports, Houe said. India is the world's second-largest rapeseed meal exporter and ships around 2 million tons of meal annually, although higher prices capped 2024 shipments to China at only 13,100 tons. In order to make up for the supply gap, the market may rely more on domestic rapeseed meal or turn to soybean meal, Rosa Wang, analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, said. The majority of animal feed producers in China rely on soymeal as a key protein source. However, some industries, particularly aquaculture, prefer rapeseed meal. China in its policy documents said that it will increase the planting of rapeseed this year.
Al Arabiya
04-03-2025
- Business
- Al Arabiya
China to impose extra tariffs of 10 percent-15 percent on various US products
China will impose additional tariffs of 10 percent-15 percent on certain US imports from March 10, according to a statement from the Chinese finance ministry on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump's new 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20 percent, launching new trade conflicts with the top three US trading partners. Industry experts and analysts weigh in on the impact of China's tarrifs. Comments: Ole Houe, Director of advisory services, Ikon Commodities, Sydney 'It is broadly negative for US agricultural markets. It is going to have a bearish influence on prices. There are enough corn and soybean supplies in the world for China to make the switch, it is more of an issue for the US, 30 percent of US soybeans still go to China.' Even Pay, Agricultural analyst, Trivium China 'It's notable that Beijing's response is restrained. Trump has now imposed a total of 20 percent tariffs on all Chinese products. China's tariffs impact a limited number of US products, and remain below the 20 percent level. This is by design. China's government is signaling that they do not want to escalate, they want to deescalate.' Rosa Wang, analyst, Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI 'From the supply and demand perspective, the short-term impact on the domestic market won't be significant. The reasons are: 1. It is currently the South American soybean season, while the US soybean is in the off-season; 2. The amount of US soybeans purchased by China has decreased, and the proportion of US soybeans in China's soybean imports has dropped to 17 percent.' 'However, the large number of products involved this time will add further difficulties to China's aquatic product exports to the US, especially tilapia exports. With the additional 10 percent tariff, the tariff on tilapia exports to the US will reach 45 percent, making it basically impossible to export to the US.'
