Latest news with #OliverPursche
CNA
01-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Wall Street jumps on tech boost, yen slides on BOJ gloom
NEW YORK : Wall Street stocks rallied and gold prices slid on Thursday as solid earnings from big tech bolstered investor risk appetite. All three major U.S. stock indexes began the month in positive territory, with upbeat quarterly results from Meta Platforms and Microsoft benefiting the Nasdaq most, sending the tech-laden index up 2.4 per cent. The bellwether S&P 500 is on track to extend its gains to an eighth consecutive session, its longest winning streak since August 2024. The dollar advanced as the yen took a hit after the Bank of Japan cut its growth forecasts due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policy. Trading was thin throughout Asia and Europe due to May Day holidays. There were no major announcements regarding trade negotiations following U.S. President Donald Trump's steep tariffs announced on April 2, which rattled world markets for much of last month. "I suspect that any news on tariff negotiations will be the same as we've heard in the last few days, which is lots of deals are done, but they're waiting for a sign off on the other party, which seems to spell out to me there is no deal done," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. "They might be working toward agreements, but until the ink is on paper, as they say, like there's no deal." First quarter earnings season is well past its halfway point, with 375 companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 74 per cent have beaten analyst expectations, according to LSEG. Apple Inc and are due to report after the closing bell, the fifth and sixth members of the so-called "magnificent seven" to post quarterly results, leaving chipmaker Nvidia, which is expected to release its first-quarter earnings on May 28. On the economic front, U.S. factory activity remained in contraction, while jobless claims increased more than analysts expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 311.33 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 40,981.02, the S&P 500 increased 76.53 points, or 1.37 per cent, to 5,645.25 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 413.81 points, or 2.36 per cent, to 17,860.15. MAY DAY HOLIDAY Many markets in Europe and the rest of the world were closed for the May Day holiday. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 5.63 points, or 0.68 per cent, to 839.17. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was flat, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 1.24 points, or 0.06 per cent. Emerging market stocks fell 2.91 points, or 0.26 per cent, to 1,109.93. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed lower by 0.19 per cent, to 579.92, while Japan's Nikkei rose 406.92 points, or 1.13 per cent, to 36,452.30. The greenback advanced after the BoJ's outlook downgrade, which reduced the prospect for future rate hikes. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.55 per cent to 100.22, with the euro down 0.41 per cent at $1.128. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 1.6 per cent to 145.36. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.3 basis points to 4.198 per cent, from 4.175 per cent late on 30-year bond yield increased 4.5 basis points to 4.7248 per cent from 4.68 per cent late on Wednesday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 1.8 basis points to 3.639 per cent, from 3.621 per cent late on Wednesday. Oil prices reversed their earlier slump on waning fears of softening demand. U.S. crude rose 0.93 per cent to $58.77 a barrel and Brent climbed to $61.52 per barrel, up 0.75 per cent on the day. Gold prices extended their decline, touching a two-week low as easing trade tensions drew investors away from the safe-haven metal. Spot gold fell 1.94 per cent to $3,224.06 an ounce. U.S. gold futures decreased 2.43 per cent to $3,224.70 an ounce.
Business Recorder
01-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Dollar gains after GDP contraction
NEW YORK: The US dollar rallied against major currencies on a data-packed Wednesday after a report showed the world's largest economy shrank in the first quarter, worse than market expectations, but better than the dire predictions touted by some of the biggest US banks. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.3% in the quarter, a Commerce Department report showed in its first estimate, undermined by a surge in imports trying to front-load purchases ahead of the Trump administration's implementation of tariffs on most goods. Data showed that pre-tariff imports surged 41.3% in the first three months of the year. The consensus forecast was for a 0.3% rise, according to economists polled by Reuters. Goldman Sachs, however, had forecasted a 0.8% contraction, while J.P. Morgan predicted a 1.75% fall. The first-quarter GDP drop followed a 2.4% rise in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, however, continued to grow, though at a moderate pace. Consumer spending on services - especially health care – grew 2.4% in the first quarter as households remained resilient. 'It's important to realize that a large chunk of the fall in GDP is due to the sharp increase in imports, which take away from GDP growth,' said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president, advisor, at Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. 'And that's probably due to the expectation of tariffs. So, if you were to normalize that, you end up with positive GDP growth for the quarter, but it certainly doesn't bode well for Q2.' Following the data, the dollar climbed versus the yen to trade 0.4% higher at 142.96 yen, while the euro slid 0.3% to $1.1351. The greenback was on pace for its biggest monthly decline against the yen since July 2024. Europe's shared currency, on the other hand, was on track to post its largest monthly gain since November 2022. Sterling fell 0.6% to $1.3332. For the month of April, the British pound rose 3.8%, its heftiest rise against the dollar in 2-1/2 years. A separate report showing a rise in US consumer spending and income and slowdown in annual inflation also boosted the dollar. Data showed US personal income increased 0.5% in March and spending climbed 0.7%, which were both above economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll. In the 12 months through March, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, increased 2.3%, down from 2.7% in February. Annual core inflation also eased from the prior month, rising 2.6% after advancing 3.0% in February. On a monthly level, both the headline and core PCE numbers were unchanged from the previous month. 'The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the coming months,' said Harry Chambers, assistant economist at Capital Economics.
CNA
30-04-2025
- Business
- CNA
US dollar advances after GDP declines; other reports point to still solid economy
NEW YORK :The U.S. dollar firmed against major currencies on a data-packed Wednesday after a report showed the world's largest economy shrank in the first quarter, worse than market expectations, but better than the dire predictions touted by some of the biggest U.S. banks. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.3 per cent in the quarter, a Commerce Department report showed in its first estimate, undermined by a surge in imports trying to front-load purchases ahead of the Trump administration's implementation of tariffs on most goods. Data showed that pre-tariff imports surged 41.3 per cent in the first three months of the year. The consensus forecast was for a 0.3 per cent rise, according to economists polled by Reuters. Goldman Sachs, however, had forecasted a 0.8 per cent contraction, while J.P. Morgan predicted a 1.75 per cent fall. The first-quarter GDP drop followed a 2.4 per cent rise in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, however, continued to grow, though at a moderate pace. Consumer spending on services - especially health care – grew 2.4 per cent in the first quarter as households remained resilient. "It's important to realize that a large chunk of the fall in GDP is due to the sharp increase in imports, which take away from GDP growth," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president, advisor, at Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. "And that's probably due to the expectation of tariffs. So, if you were to normalize that, you end up with positive GDP growth for the quarter, but it certainly doesn't bode well for Q2." Following the data, the dollar climbed versus the yen to trade 0.3 per cent higher at 142.77 yen , while the euro slid 0.4 per cent to $1.1343. The greenback was on pace for its biggest monthly decline against the yen since July 2024. Europe's shared currency, on the other hand, was on track to post its largest monthly gain since November 2022. Sterling fell 0.5 per cent to $1.3340 . For the month of April, the British pound rose 3.3 per cent, its heftiest rise against the dollar since November 2023. 'WELCOME NEWS' A separate report showing a rise in U.S. consumer spending and income as well as slowdown in annual inflation also boosted the dollar. Data showed U.S. personal income increased 0.5 per cent in March and spending climbed 0.7 per cent, which were both above economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll. In the 12 months through March, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, increased 2.3 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in February. Annual core inflation also eased from the prior month, rising 2.6 per cent after advancing 3.0 per cent in February. On a monthly level, both the headline and core PCE numbers were unchanged from the previous month. "The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the coming months," said Harry Chambers, assistant economist at Capital Economics. Following the PCE data, U.S. rate futures continued to point to a resumption of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in June, with a total of 100 basis points in cuts, or four quarter-percentage-point reductions likely in 2025. That brings the U.S. central bank's policy rate to the 3.25 per cent-3.50 per cent range by the end of this year. In other reports, the National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, jumped 6.1 per cent to 76.5 last month. The increase was the largest since December 2023. Earlier in the session, the ADP National Employment Report showed that U.S. private payrolls growth slowed more than expected in April. Private payrolls increased by only 62,000 jobs this month after a downwardly revised 147,000 gain in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would advance by 115,000. The dollar pared gains versus the yen after the ADP data. "The GDP data and the ADP number earlier are stagflationary, with consumption still higher. Stagflation is one of the worst things for the economy," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products, North America, at Moneycorp in New Jersey, referring to a scenario where growth is weak, while inflation is higher. "The dollar was slightly firmer after the data, but overall no big moves there. Currency bid prices at 30 April 07:06 p.m. GMT Descripti RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD Pct High Low on Close Change Bid Bid Previous Session Dollar 99.443 99.175 0.28 per cent -8.34 per cent 99.651 99.1 index 4 Euro/Doll 1.135 1.1385 -0.29 per cent 9.65 per cent $1.14 $1.1 ar 323 Dollar/Ye 142.75 142.285 0.38 per cent -9.23 per cent 143.155 142. n 2 Euro/Yen 161.96 162.04 -0.05 per cent -0.77 per cent 162.65 161. 71 Dollar/Sw 0.8228 0.8237 -0.08 per cent -9.32 per cent 0.8263 0.82 iss 14 Sterling/ 1.3342 1.3406 -0.48 per cent 6.68 per cent $1.3414 $1.3 Dollar 31 Dollar/Ca 1.378 1.3834 -0.38 per cent -4.17 per cent 1.3855 1.37 nadian 77 Aussie/Do 0.6407 0.6384 0.38 per cent 3.56 per cent $0.6418 $0.6 llar 357 Euro/Swis 0.934 0.9377 -0.39 per cent -0.56 per cent 0.9394 0.93 s 31 Euro/Ster 0.8505 0.8489 0.19 per cent 2.8 per cent 0.8538 0.84 ling 83 NZ 0.5943 0.5928 0.29 per cent 6.25 per cent $0.5948 0.59 Dollar/Do llar Dollar/No 10.3923 10.3491 0.42 per cent -8.56 per cent 10.4323 10.3 rway 469 Euro/Norw 11.7948 11.7976 -0.02 per cent 0.22 per cent 11.85 11.7 ay 66 Dollar/Sw 9.6445 9.6153 0.3 per cent -12.46 per cent 9.6864 9.60 eden 98 Euro/Swed 10.9536 10.9535 0 per cent -4.48 per cent 10.9957 10.9 en 398
CNA
30-04-2025
- Business
- CNA
US dollar gains after GDP contraction; other data point to solid economy
NEW YORK :The U.S. dollar rallied against major currencies on a data-packed Wednesday after a report showed the world's largest economy shrank in the first quarter, worse than market expectations, but better than the dire predictions touted by some of the biggest U.S. banks. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.3 per cent in the quarter, a Commerce Department report showed in its first estimate, undermined by a surge in imports trying to front-load purchases ahead of the Trump administration's implementation of tariffs on most goods. Data showed that pre-tariff imports surged 41.3 per cent in the first three months of the year. The consensus forecast was for a 0.3 per cent rise, according to economists polled by Reuters. Goldman Sachs, however, had forecasted a 0.8 per cent contraction, while J.P. Morgan predicted a 1.75 per cent fall. The first-quarter GDP drop followed a 2.4 per cent rise in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, however, continued to grow, though at a moderate pace. Consumer spending on services - especially health care – grew 2.4 per cent in the first quarter as households remained resilient. "It's important to realize that a large chunk of the fall in GDP is due to the sharp increase in imports, which take away from GDP growth," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president, advisor, at Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. "And that's probably due to the expectation of tariffs. So, if you were to normalize that, you end up with positive GDP growth for the quarter, but it certainly doesn't bode well for Q2." Following the data, the dollar climbed versus the yen to trade 0.4 per cent higher at 142.96 yen, while the euro slid 0.3 per cent to $1.1351. The greenback was on pace for its biggest monthly decline against the yen since July 2024. Europe's shared currency, on the other hand, was on track to post its largest monthly gain since November 2022. Sterling fell 0.6 per cent to $1.3332. For the month of April, the British pound rose 3.8 per cent, its heftiest rise against the dollar in 2-1/2 years. 'WELCOME NEWS' A separate report showing a rise in U.S. consumer spending and income and slowdown in annual inflation also boosted the dollar. Data showed U.S. personal income increased 0.5 per cent in March and spending climbed 0.7 per cent, which were both above economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll. In the 12 months through March, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, increased 2.3 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in February. Annual core inflation also eased from the prior month, rising 2.6 per cent after advancing 3.0 per cent in February. On a monthly level, both the headline and core PCE numbers were unchanged from the previous month. "The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the coming months," said Harry Chambers, assistant economist at Capital Economics. "Otherwise, the strong rise in real consumer spending last month should soothe fears that consumers are retrenching in the face of economic uncertainty." Following the PCE data, U.S. rate futures continued to point to a resumption of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in June, with a total of 100 basis points in cuts, or four quarter-percentage-point reductions likely, bringing the U.S. central bank's policy rate to the 3.25 per cent-3.50 per cent range by the end of this year. In other reports, the National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, jumped 6.1 per cent to 76.5 last month. The increase was the largest since December 2023. Earlier in the session, the ADP National Employment Report showed that U.S. private payrolls growth slowed more than expected in April. Private payrolls increased by only 62,000 jobs this month after a downwardly revised 147,000 gain in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would advance by 115,000 following a previously reported gain of 155,000 in March. The dollar pared gains versus the yen after the ADP data. Currency bid prices at 30 April 02:59 p.m. GMT Description RIC Las U.S. Close Pct YT Hig Lo t Previous Chan D h w Session ge Pc Bid Bi t d Dollar index 99. 99.175 0.2 per cent -8 99. 99 36 .4 561 .1 2 per cent 4 Euro/Dollar 1.1 1.1385 -0.1 9. $1. $1 365 7 per cent 77 14 .1 per cent 35 Dollar/Yen 142 142.285 0.26 -9 143 14 .62 per cent .3 .15 2. 4 per cent 5 2 Euro/Yen 162 162.04 0.01 -0 162 16 .05 per cent .7 .65 1. 2 per cent 72 Dollar/Swiss 0.8 0.8237 -0.2 -9 0.8 0. 214 7 per cent .4 263 82 9 per cent 14 Sterling/Dollar 1.3 1.3406 -0.3 6. $1. $1 355 6 per cent 8 per cent 341 .3 4 31 Dollar/Canadian 1.3 1.3834 -0.1 -3 1.3 1. 811 7 per cent .9 855 38 6 per cent 07 Aussie/Dollar 0.6 0.6384 0.24 3. $0. $0 397 per cent 42 641 .6 per cent 8 35 7 Euro/Swiss 0.9 0.9377 -0.4 -0 0.9 0. 336 4 per cent .6 394 93 1 per cent 37 Euro/Sterling 0.8 0.8489 0.22 2. 0.8 0. 508 per cent 84 538 84 per cent 83 NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.5 0.5928 0.11 6. $0. 0. 933 per cent 06 594 59 per cent 8 Dollar/Norway 10. 10.3491 0.16 -8 10. 10 366 per cent .7 432 .3 1 9 per cent 3 46 9 Euro/Norway 11. 11.7976 -0.0 0. 11. 11 788 8 per cent 17 85 .7 4 per cent 66 Dollar/Sweden 9.6 9.6153 0.27 -1 9.6 9. 408 per cent 2. 864 60 49 98 per cent Euro/Sweden 10. 10.9535 0.06 -4 10. 10 959 per cent .4 995 .9 8 2 per cent 7 39 8
