21-04-2025
Unraveling The Unintended Consequences Of China's Disastrous One Child Policy
Reversing the unforeseen effects of China's One Child Policy has not been easy. (Photo by Forrest ...)
In 1979, China's leaders implemented the now-infamous 'One Child Policy.' Designed to curb population growth, the policy succeeded in reducing birth rates almost immediately. But it also unleashed a cascade of severe and unintended social consequences that the nation is still trying to untangle.
Because many Chinese couples favored boys over girls, the One Child policy began to skew the gender ratio. It gave rise to the so-called 'little emperor' syndrome among only children. Most significantly, a birth dearth gave rise to a rapidly aging population.
Today, that aging population poses a long-term crisis threatening to upend China's economic momentum. With a shrinking workforce and fewer young workers, productivity has declined as soaring healthcare and pension costs strain national resources.
Decades of restricting birth have created a demographic imbalance. Fewer caregivers are available to support a growing elderly population. Once a driver of China's growth, consumer spending is shifting away from housing, education, and discretionary goods. Industries across the board are feeling the squeeze, while the burden on younger generations grows ever heavier.
China is scrambling to undo the decision: raising the retirement age, pushing automation in fields and factories, and offering incentives for couples to have more children. But the results have been underwhelming. Reversing the unintended consequences of that single 1979 policy decision has been anything but easy.
Governmental responses include birth subsidies, stronger maternity and paternity leave, and numerous efforts to bolster workplace protections for women. No matter how creatively or emphatically the government promotes fertility, young Chinese couples are simply not making more babies.
Result: China stands to lose five to ten million working-age adults each year, while gaining an equal number of elderly people.
In researching a new book on decision-making in an uncertain world, I frequently encounter unintended consequences. The Trump administration's recent imposition of across-the-board tariffs is an example. The announcement of these controversially named "reciprocal tariffs" prompted retaliation from trade partners and immediately triggered a stock market crash. The aggressive U.S. tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50 percent, according to economists polled by Reuters.
At the time, China's One-Child Policy seemed like a no-brainer, a logical response to burgeoning, unsustainable population growth. But its long-term impacts on culture, economics, and national competitiveness were profoundly underestimated.
Key point: When making decisions of significant impact, consider what you want to happen and if your plan will bring this desired state into being. But consider also what might unfold if your plan doesn't work — and if your plan works all too well. The payoff from taking the extra time will be worth it. Just ask China.
