5 days ago
What ‘Russia's Pearl Harbor' Says About Trump's Golden Dome
Almost like it was a premonition, military analyst Max Boot warned in a Saturday Washington Post op-ed that the future of warfare wouldn't be fought with massive space-based missile shields, but with swarms of cheap, expendable drones.
Less than 24 hours later, Ukraine delivered the proof.
In the early hours of Sunday morning, Ukraine's intelligence service launched Operation Spiderweb-a coordinated drone strike on five Russian air bases, including two located deep in Siberia, thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border. The drones, smuggled inside wooden cabins on tractor-trailers and deployed remotely, reportedly disabled or destroyed up to a third of Russia's long-range bomber fleet.
Some military commentators compared it to another infamous Sunday surprise-Japan's 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. Russian officials rejected the analogy, insisting the damage was far less severe than Ukraine claimed. Also unlike the Japanese surprise attack on the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Ukraine was already in a defensive war with Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky oversaw the operation perdsonally and said it cost only tens of thousands of dollars, but may have caused at least $7 billion in damage. Reports said and videos confirmed the drones flew toward their targets, hitting Russia's nuclear-capable bombers and at least one A-50 spy plane.
It also served as a prime example-a stark demonstration of how asymmetrical warfare can upend traditional power dynamics.
Ukraine's display of drone warfare came just days after President Donald Trump championed his "Golden Dome"-a $175 billion proposed space-based missile defense system his administration says will shield the U.S. from hypersonic and intercontinental threats by 2029.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the project could cost as much as $830 billion over 20 years to complete, assuming it is even physically possible.
Standing alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the White House, Trump declared, "An architecture has officially been selected... It will be the most advanced missile defense system ever devised."
The plan envisions a web of satellites equipped with sensors and interceptors, including space-based lasers. Modeled partly on Ronald Reagan's failed Strategic Defense Initiative - known then as "Star Wars" - the Golden Dome echoes Cold War-era visions of layered missile defense from orbit. But critics argue it's no more realistic today than it was four decades ago.
Chatham House, a London-based independent policy institute, warned that the Golden Dome "risks exacerbating global instability and accelerating strategic competition." Julia Cournoyer, a research associate with Chatham's International Security Programme, wrote that "a system that aspires to make the U.S. invulnerable to missile attack would almost certainly be seen by its adversaries as an attempt to undermine the logic of nuclear deterrence."
With drone swarms now capable of crippling billion-dollar military infrastructure for a fraction of the cost, military analysts who spoke to Newsweek say the United States must reevaluate whether its missile defense priorities are geared for the future-or stuck defending a past that no longer exists.
Defense experts also say the Golden Dome fails the most basic test: relevance.
"Forget Trump's hugely expensive, impractical Golden Dome shield. Drones are the future of warfare," Boot wrote in a separate Washington Post opinion piece. He pointed to Ukraine's goal of producing 4.5 million drones this year at an average cost of $580 each-a scale that dwarfs the Pentagon's current output. For the same $25 billion earmarked for the Golden Dome's first phase, the U.S. could theoretically build more than 43 million drones.
"If the Ukrainians could sneak drones so close to major air bases in a police state such as Russia, what is to prevent the Chinese from doing the same with U.S. air bases?" Boot asked.
Zachary Kallenborn, a UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] warfare specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Newsweek the Ukrainian attack is "definitely plausible" in other theaters. "They used small drones, probably capable of only carrying a few pounds of explosive," he said.
"A similar Chinese drone attack is worth worrying about."
National security analysts Benjamin Giltner and Justin Logan of the Cato Institute warned that the program is "costly and unlikely to pull off." Writing in The Spectator, the pair argued and that "modeling U.S. missile defense on Israel's Iron Dome is a mistake."
They argue the plan's scale is unworkable and technologically mismatched to the advanced threats it's meant to counter-such as ICBMs flying at five times the speed of sound, armed with multiple warheads and decoys.
Trump has also explicitly said the Golden Dome will be modeled on Israel's Iron Dome, though Israel is roughly the size of New Jersey and its missile shield mostly protects against slow moving, unguided rockets and other projectiles.
Some in the president's orbit see the Golden Dome as a necessary evolution in national defense. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik called the program a vital step forward. "President Trump's announcement of the Golden Dome represents decisive action and fearless vision to ensure America's defense future," she said in a May 20 press release.
"The Golden Dome, incorporating new technologies across land, sea, and space, is critical for countering evolving threats from rogue nations and adversaries."
Yet even supporters face questions about practicality and risk. Cournoyer warned that adversaries could respond by escalating their own arsenals, pushing the U.S. and its rivals into a destabilizing arms race.
"This arms race could also incentivize the deployment of space-based weapons at a time when space remains dangerously under-regulated," she wrote. "Beijing and Moscow could respond with a range of countermeasures, including expanding their offensive arsenals or developing new delivery systems."
The announcement has already made headlines overseas, with rivals like China and Russia reacting sharply. "The United States, in pursuing a 'U.S.-first' policy, is obsessed with seeking absolute security for itself," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning during a May press briefing.
Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, urged Washington to abandon the deployment of weapons in space and said the Golden Dome would undermine strategic stability.
As global threats evolve in line with rapid advancements in technology, the debate continues over whether high-cost missile shields like the Golden Dome can keep pace with the low-cost, high-impact tactics reshaping modern warfare.
On Sunday, Ukraine showed the world what the future of warfare might very well look like. And it's not a future that can be easily countered with traditional defense practices.
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