Latest news with #Oppenheimer&Co.
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
One chart shows why the stock market could be headed for another period of intense volatility
The S&P 500 is nearing two key resistance levels that could give way to more volatility and selling. The index's rally faces challenges at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Potential market catalysts include Q1 GDP, the April jobs report, and first-quarter earnings. Breadth thrust buy signals? Check. A collapse in volatility? Check. To many chart readers, it seemed like the latest technical signals were pointing to a fresh and lasting upswing in the stock market — but not so fast. The S&P 500 is approaching key resistance levels that could unleash a wave of selling and increase volatility in the near term. Since the benchmark index rallied 14% from tariff-induced lows earlier this month, it is fast approaching its declining 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. This embedded content is not available in your region. When the stock market is in a downtrend, as it has been since it made a series of lower highs and lower lows in March and April, the declining moving averages typically represent a level where sellers can overwhelm buyers, driving stock prices lower and extending the downtrend. "We favor the 200-day average as a gauge of the market's primary trend," Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., told Business Insider on Tuesday. "It often serves as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends." As of Tuesday afternoon, the 50-day moving average of 5,613 represents 1.2% upside from current levels, while the 200-day moving average of 5,746 represents 3.6% upside. But from there, it will likely be a tougher hill to climb for the stock market. "The key question we're focused on is whether the first-quarter weakness was simply a sharp correction within an ongoing bull cycle, or the start of a more extended consolidation following a meaningful trend break," Wald said. "We lean toward the latter view, and believe the risk/reward profile becomes less attractive as the S&P 500 approaches its 200-day moving average," He added. Whats more, the S&P 500's 200-day moving average is around the same level where the market peaked in late March, representing yet another reason why selling could take place around 5,750. "The S&P 500 is reaching a 'confluence of resistance' formed by the 200-day moving average as well as the late March swing low around 5750," David Keller, chief strategist at Sierra Alpha Research, told BI. "Given the severity of the upswing, we would expect at least a tactical pullback from this resistance zone as the market digests recent gains," he said. For Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, the 50-day moving average is a key resistance level to watch in the coming trading days. And she thinks the stock market will be able to break above it. "Our market internals are supportive of a bigger rebound," Stockton told clients in a note on Monday. "Sentiment has recovered meaningfully per the Fear & Greed Index, which is back above 25% after becoming deeply oversold earlier this month." However, according to Stockton, a break above the S&P 500's 50-day moving average would likely be short-lived and ultimately give way to renewed weakness. "Both the SPX and Nasdaq-100 Index have room to initial resistance at their 50-day MAs, respectively 5625 and 19680, breakouts above which would likely foster additional momentum before the rally fails," she said. As to what could cause a new wave of selling in the stock market, it could be investors' reaction to a flurry of upcoming data. Investors will get a first glimpse at first-quarter GDP on Wednesday along with an update to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Those data points will by followed by the April jobs report on Friday. On May 7, investors will hear from Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, which could include a shift in the central bank's view of interest rates. In between all of the macroeconomic updates, first-quarter earnings season will be in full swing, with most mega-cap tech giants set to report results in the next few days. Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Insider
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
One chart shows why the stock market could be headed for another period of intense volatility
Breadth thrust buy signals? Check. A collapse in volatility? Check. To many chart readers, it seemed like the latest technical signals were pointing to a fresh and lasting upswing in the stock market — but not so fast. The S&P 500 is approaching key resistance levels that could unleash a wave of selling and increase volatility in the near term. Since the benchmark index rallied 14% from tariff-induced lows earlier this month, it is fast approaching its declining 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. When the stock market is in a downtrend, as it has been since it made a series of lower highs and lower lows in March and April, the declining moving averages typically represent a level where sellers can overwhelm buyers, driving stock prices lower and extending the downtrend. "We favor the 200-day average as a gauge of the market's primary trend," Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., told Business Insider on Tuesday. "It often serves as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends." As of Tuesday afternoon, the 50-day moving average of 5,613 represents 1.2% upside from current levels, while the 200-day moving average of 5,746 represents 3.6% upside. But from there, it will likely be a tougher hill to climb for the stock market. "The key question we're focused on is whether the first-quarter weakness was simply a sharp correction within an ongoing bull cycle, or the start of a more extended consolidation following a meaningful trend break," Wald said. "We lean toward the latter view, and believe the risk/reward profile becomes less attractive as the S&P 500 approaches its 200-day moving average," He added. Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, highlighted the 50-day moving average as a key resistance level to watch in the coming trading days. And she thinks the stock market will be able to break above it. "Our market internals are supportive of a bigger rebound," Stockton told clients in a note on Monday. "Sentiment has recovered meaningfully per the Fear & Greed Index, which is back above 25% after becoming deeply oversold earlier this month." However, according to Stockton, a break above the S&P 500's 50-day moving average would likely be short-lived and ultimately give way to renewed weakness. "Both the SPX and Nasdaq-100 Index have room to initial resistance at their 50-day MAs, respectively 5625 and 19680, breakouts above which would likely foster additional momentum before the rally fails," she said. Big stock market catalysts ahead As to what could cause a new wave of selling in the stock market, it could be investors' reaction to a flurry of upcoming data. Investors will get a first glimpse at first-quarter GDP on Wednesday along with an update to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Those data points will by followed by the April jobs report on Friday. On May 7, investors will hear from Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, which could include a shift in the central bank's view of interest rates. In between all of the macroeconomic updates, first-quarter earnings season will be in full swing, with most mega-cap tech giants set to report results in the next few days.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Tesla's struggling stock just saw a dreaded 'death cross' that could signal further losses
Tesla stock flashed a bearish "death cross" signal on Monday. The indicator was triggered by the stock's 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day. Shares have been volatile, down roughly 50% from December highs. Major stock indexes flashed so-called "death cross" signals this week. On Tuesday, it was Tesla's turn. Shares of the EV-maker met the definition of a death cross when their 50-day moving average ($288.76) crossed below the 200-day measure ($290.60). The formation has historically been a bearish indicator for the underlying asset. This embedded content is not available in your region. Tesla stock has experienced incredible whiplash in recent months. On the heels of President Trump's election, Tesla — which was seen as a beneficiary given CEO Elon Musk's close ties to the administration — soared nearly 100%. But since its mid-December peak at nearly $500 per share, the stock has plunged about 50% as investors worried have mounted around slowing EV sales and growing protests against the brand. This is the first time Tesla stock flashed a death cross since May 2022, the early days of a brutal bear market sell-off that was sparked by surging inflation and interest rates. Shares of Tesla went on to decline by as much as 54% before it found its bottom in January 2023. It's important to note that the moving-average crossover strategy is a lagging indicator. Therefore, it can flash head fake signals, which occur when a stock quickly rebounds after a "death cross" and triggers a "golden cross" buy signal. As Ari Wald, the head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., explained to BI last month: "While every major decline starts with a 'death cross' not every 'death cross' leads to a major decline." Tesla isn't the only stock flashing a bearish death cross. Other notable death crosses hit bitcoin earlier this month and Nvidia in late March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also flashed a death cross signal on Monday. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
A bearish 'death cross' just flashed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 just experienced a chart pattern known as a "death cross." It occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. The formation has historically signaled declines ahead, but not all have preceded major downturns. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both flashed the dreaded "death cross" formation on Monday. The technical sell signal occurs when an index's 200-day moving average rises above its 50-day moving average. It can signal a reversal in a prior trend — in this case, the two-year bull market in stocks. The development comes on the heels heightened volatility in recent days, which saw the S&P 500 fall 11% in just two days and flirt with bear-market territory before posting a historic 10% single-day gain the following week. Resulting price action saw the 50-day moving average fall to 5,747, just a few points below the 200-day moving average of 5,753, at a certain point on Monday. This embedded content is not available in your region. This is the first time the S&P 500 has flashed a death cross since March 2022, the early days of a bear market sell-off sparked by surging inflation and interest rates. The index went on to decline by as much as 16% before finding its bottom in October 2022. For the Nasdaq 100, the 50-day moving average fell to 20,214 on Monday, slightly below the 200-day moving average of 20,253. This embedded content is not available in your region. For the Nasdaq index, it's the first death cross since March 2022. The gauge went on to decline by as much as 27% before finding its bottom in October 2022. That's not to say that the stock market has to go lower since the death cross flashed, as there have been plenty of head fakes in the past for the signal. That happens when the S&P 500 rebounds and resumes its uptrend higher, quickly flipping back to a "golden cross" buy signal. The most recent death cross head fake occurred in March 2020. As Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., explained to BI last month: "While every major decline starts with a 'death cross' not every 'death cross' leads to a major decline." In the short term, the market could bounce higher amid the tariff uncertainty. That's according to technical analyst Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies, who said in a Monday note that downside selling has hit exhausted levels. "Short-term momentum has improved enough behind the S&P futures to generate a daily MACD 'buy' signal," Stockton said. "This supports a bigger relief rally that has the potential to stay with the market for a few weeks." Still, other notable death crosses have been flashing across markets in recent weeks. The bearish signal hit bitcoin earlier this month and Nvidia in late March. Since those signals flashed, bitcoin is up roughly 1% while Nvidia is down 7%. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
08-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Market Safe Havens
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney April 8th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Dr. Paul Krugman, economist and long time NY Times columnist, joins for an extended discussion about tariffs, trade wars, and DOGE. Investors remain on edge over tariff policy, inflation, and potential labor disruptions, as President Trump recently threatened to impose an additional 50% import tax on China if it doesn't pull back from its plan to impose retaliatory levies on American goods. 2) John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., joins to discuss lowering his highest-on-Wall Street S&P target and whether he believes equities will bounce back in 2025. Investors remain flummoxed after President Trump's recent remarks and those of his advisers have created confusion and volatility in markets, with investors struggling to understand his negotiating criteria and the lack of a streamlined process for considering exceptions to the tariffs. 3) Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow - Atlantic Council, discusses oil dropping below $60 a barrel, hitting a four-year-low, and outlook for global energy. Goldman Sachs analysts recently estimated that Brent oil could fall below $40 a barrel in late 2026 under "extreme" outcomes, including a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts. 4) Libby Cantrill, Managing Director: Public Policy at PIMCO, discusses the Trump administration's tariff policies and the components that are here to stay. Anxiety is growing on Wall Street that Donald Trump's actions might break the economy and key parts of the financial markets. Despite a slight easing of the US stock selloff, there are few signs of optimism, and investors are desperate for any sign of tariff relief. 5) James Steel, Chief Commodities Analyst at HSBC, joins for an extended discussion on gold's record rise and whether it will be the safe haven amid tariff uncertainty. With volatility surging as $10 trillion wiped off global equities after the US unveiled sweeping tariffs last week, gold pushed higher yesterday.
