Latest news with #OriginEnergyLimited
Business Insider
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Citi Sticks to Their Buy Rating for Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)
Citi analyst Tom Wallington maintained a Buy rating on Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF – Research Report) today and set a price target of A$11.50. The company's shares closed last Wednesday at $7.10. Confident Investing Starts Here: Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Origin Energy Limited has an analyst consensus of Hold, with a price target consensus of $6.92. The company has a one-year high of $8.79 and a one-year low of $5.63. Currently, Origin Energy Limited has an average volume of 1,592.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Origin Energy Limited's (ASX:ORG) largest shareholders are individual investors with 54% ownership, institutions own 45%
Origin Energy's significant individual investors ownership suggests that the key decisions are influenced by shareholders from the larger public 43% of the business is held by the top 25 shareholders Institutional ownership in Origin Energy is 45% We've discovered 2 warning signs about Origin Energy. View them for free. If you want to know who really controls Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. With 54% stake, individual investors possess the maximum shares in the company. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk). Institutions, on the other hand, account for 45% of the company's stockholders. Insiders often own a large chunk of younger, smaller, companies while huge companies tend to have institutions as shareholders. Let's delve deeper into each type of owner of Origin Energy, beginning with the chart below. Check out our latest analysis for Origin Energy Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing. We can see that Origin Energy does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This suggests some credibility amongst professional investors. But we can't rely on that fact alone since institutions make bad investments sometimes, just like everyone does. If multiple institutions change their view on a stock at the same time, you could see the share price drop fast. It's therefore worth looking at Origin Energy's earnings history below. Of course, the future is what really matters. Hedge funds don't have many shares in Origin Energy. Looking at our data, we can see that the largest shareholder is Australian Super Pty Ltd with 17% of shares outstanding. State Street Global Advisors, Inc. is the second largest shareholder owning 6.1% of common stock, and The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds about 6.0% of the company stock. A deeper look at our ownership data shows that the top 25 shareholders collectively hold less than half of the register, suggesting a large group of small holders where no single shareholder has a majority. While studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. There are a reasonable number of analysts covering the stock, so it might be useful to find out their aggregate view on the future. The definition of an insider can differ slightly between different countries, but members of the board of directors always count. Management ultimately answers to the board. However, it is not uncommon for managers to be executive board members, especially if they are a founder or the CEO. I generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions. Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of Origin Energy Limited in their own names. As it is a large company, we'd only expect insiders to own a small percentage of it. But it's worth noting that they own AU$37m worth of shares. In this sort of situation, it can be more interesting to see if those insiders have been buying or selling. The general public, mostly comprising of individual investors, collectively holds 54% of Origin Energy shares. With this amount of ownership, retail investors can collectively play a role in decisions that affect shareholder returns, such as dividend policies and the appointment of directors. They can also exercise the power to vote on acquisitions or mergers that may not improve profitability. While it is well worth considering the different groups that own a company, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Origin Energy (including 1 which is a bit concerning) . But ultimately it is the future, not the past, that will determine how well the owners of this business will do. Therefore we think it advisable to take a look at this free report showing whether analysts are predicting a brighter future. NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) Trading At A 49% Discount?
The projected fair value for Origin Energy is AU$21.43 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of AU$10.86 suggests Origin Energy is potentially 49% undervalued Our fair value estimate is 104% higher than Origin Energy's analyst price target of AU$10.50 How far off is Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$176.0m AU$1.02b AU$1.17b AU$1.28b AU$1.37b AU$1.45b AU$1.53b AU$1.59b AU$1.65b AU$1.71b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 9.35% Est @ 7.37% Est @ 5.98% Est @ 5.01% Est @ 4.33% Est @ 3.85% Est @ 3.52% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2% AU$166 AU$907 AU$975 AU$1.0k AU$1.0k AU$1.0k AU$1.0k AU$984 AU$962 AU$938 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$9.0b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.2%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$1.7b× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (6.2%– 2.7%) = AU$51b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$51b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)10= AU$28b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$37b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$10.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Origin Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Origin Energy Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electric Utilities market. Opportunity Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows. Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years. Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Origin Energy, there are three important items you should look at: Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Origin Energy you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning. Future Earnings: How does ORG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Insider
01-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
UBS Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)
In a report released today, Tom Allen from UBS maintained a Buy rating on Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF – Research Report), with a price target of A$11.70. Protect Your Portfolio Against Market Uncertainty Discover companies with rock-solid fundamentals in TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter. Receive undervalued stocks, resilient to market uncertainty, delivered straight to your inbox. According to TipRanks, Allen is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 4.8% and a 51.70% success rate. Allen covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as Origin Energy Limited, Santos Limited, and Beach Energy . Currently, the analyst consensus on Origin Energy Limited is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $6.81.
Business Insider
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) Receives a Buy from Citi
Citi analyst James Byrne CFA maintained a Buy rating on Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF – Research Report) today and set a price target of A$11.50. The company's shares closed last Thursday at $6.46. Protect Your Portfolio Against Market Uncertainty Discover companies with rock-solid fundamentals in TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter. Receive undervalued stocks, resilient to market uncertainty, delivered straight to your inbox. According to TipRanks, Byrne CFA is a 2-star analyst with an average return of -0.6% and a 44.00% success rate. Byrne CFA covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as Karoon Energy Ltd, Origin Energy Limited, and Santos Limited. Origin Energy Limited has an analyst consensus of Moderate Buy, with a price target consensus of $6.78. OGFGF market cap is currently $11.31B and has a P/E ratio of 12.09.
