Latest news with #OxfordEconomicsAustralia
Fashion Network
3 days ago
- Business
- Fashion Network
Australia's retail sales fall as clothing demand weakens
Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell in April after three months of gains, led by a decline in clothing purchases and prompting traders to bring forward expectations for a third interest rate cut this year. Sales dropped 0.1% in April from a month earlier, compared with a forecast 0.3% increase, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Friday. The decline caps a week of dour economic data including private capital investment, which fell in the first quarter against economist expectations for a gain, and construction work done, which was flat, again confounding estimates for a rise. The data added to expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue cutting rates, especially with US President Donald Trump making it clear that he wants tariffs to stay in place. Swaps traders are fully pricing in three more cuts for the year, with yields on three- and 10-year government bonds down about 10 basis points. Prior to Friday's report, markets were fully pricing in two cuts this year. The weakness in Friday's data 'is one indication that households are being a little cautious in the face of rising global uncertainty,' said Ben Udy, lead economist for Oxford Economics Australia. 'Unless consumption picks up a little more strongly in the coming months, the RBA may cut rates even sooner than we currently expect.' Retail sales can be an important consideration for monetary policy, as consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product. The Reserve Bank has repeatedly highlighted the outlook for household spending as a key uncertainty as it considers cutting interest rates further. Friday's data also showed: Annual retail sales climbed 3.8% in April. There were mixed results across industries, with the largest falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing, and department stores — both down 2.5%. Food-related spending continued to rise, with growth in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services up 1.1%. This was partially offset by a fall in food retailing, which declined 0.3%. The ABS intends to cease the publication of retail sales data from July. It is switching to a more comprehensive monthly report on household consumption that will be released Thursday.
Fashion Network
3 days ago
- Business
- Fashion Network
Australia's retail sales fall as clothing demand weakens
Australian retail sales unexpectedly fell in April after three months of gains, led by a decline in clothing purchases and prompting traders to bring forward expectations for a third interest rate cut this year. Sales dropped 0.1% in April from a month earlier, compared with a forecast 0.3% increase, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Friday. The decline caps a week of dour economic data including private capital investment, which fell in the first quarter against economist expectations for a gain, and construction work done, which was flat, again confounding estimates for a rise. The data added to expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue cutting rates, especially with US President Donald Trump making it clear that he wants tariffs to stay in place. Swaps traders are fully pricing in three more cuts for the year, with yields on three- and 10-year government bonds down about 10 basis points. Prior to Friday's report, markets were fully pricing in two cuts this year. The weakness in Friday's data 'is one indication that households are being a little cautious in the face of rising global uncertainty,' said Ben Udy, lead economist for Oxford Economics Australia. 'Unless consumption picks up a little more strongly in the coming months, the RBA may cut rates even sooner than we currently expect.' Retail sales can be an important consideration for monetary policy, as consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product. The Reserve Bank has repeatedly highlighted the outlook for household spending as a key uncertainty as it considers cutting interest rates further. Friday's data also showed: Annual retail sales climbed 3.8% in April. There were mixed results across industries, with the largest falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing, and department stores — both down 2.5%. Food-related spending continued to rise, with growth in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services up 1.1%. This was partially offset by a fall in food retailing, which declined 0.3%. The ABS intends to cease the publication of retail sales data from July. It is switching to a more comprehensive monthly report on household consumption that will be released Thursday.
West Australian
3 days ago
- Business
- West Australian
Apartment approvals slide depresses total number of houses signed off in April, ABS data shows
A steep fall in demand for apartments depressed the total number of dwellings approved in April, with industry warning the numbers will need to pick up to meet housing targets. Fresh data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed private attached dwellings fell 19 per cent to 4999 — the weakest result since September 2024 — on the back of a 'normalisation' in apartment approvals. The total number of new dwellings approved fell 5.7 per cent to 14,633, according to the seasonally adjusted data released on Friday. NSW (-7.8 per cent) and Victoria (-6.5 per cent) had the steepest falls for total dwelling approvals, while Tasmania (12.7 per cent), WA (9.6 per cent) and South Australia (9.5 per cent) continued to gain. Oxford Economics Australia lead economist Maree Kilroy said the fallback in apartments was not a shock. 'We have been expecting a normalisation from the strong start to the year,' she said. But the Property Council of Australia warned apartment approval numbers needed to pick up. 'While apartment approval numbers are volatile, this is two months in a row of significant falls,' said Matthew Kandelaars, the group's executive of policy and advocacy, said. 'Just 5612 apartments were approved in March and April. This is a far cry from the 15,029 green-lit during March and April in the apartment boom of 2016. 'We will not meet our housing targets without the heavy lifting that needs to come from apartments that can deliver homes at scale close to transport, existing infrastructure and amenities. Australia must build more than 20,000 homes each month to reach the Federal Government's National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. The ABS showed a different story for national private house approvals, which gained 3.1 per cent to 9349 off the soft result in March. NSW and Queensland drove the gains, while other major States held relatively flat. Ms Kilroy said a number of policy supports for housing — including social housing stimulus and low deposit loans — were in place and would help to boost supply. However, she said it would take time to reflect in dwelling approvals figures. 'Additional support is likely from the RBA,' she said. 'Two more cash rate cuts are forecast before the end of the year that will further support mortgage affordability and project feasibilities. However, it usually takes about year for lower mortgage interest rates to support approval volumes.'
The Advertiser
18-05-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Interest rate cut tipped despite Trump tariff backdown
A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains. A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains. A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains. A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next meeting, but developments abroad mean it's no longer a sure thing. US President Donald Trump recently slashed tariffs on China to 35 per cent from a whopping 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to lower its own tariff wall and triggering a rebound in values for riskier assets such as shares. Following strong labour market data released on Thursday, the market now predicts three rate cuts by year's end, down from four priced in at the start of the week. But traders are still nearly fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut to the cash rate, which sits at 4.1 per cent, on Tuesday. Almost nine in 10 economists agreed in a survey by comparison website Finder. Oxford Economics Australia's Sean Langcake is among the vast majority of the 41 economists surveyed who predict a cash rate reduction. Despite better news on the tariff front, the economy would still be negatively impacted by the "uncertainty shock", he said. "With upside inflation risks dissipating, the RBA can afford to lend the economy some more support," Mr Langcake added. Economists at all four big banks also expect a cut, with NAB still holding onto its prediction of a turbocharged 50 basis point cut. Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif said the case for an "aggressive" 50-point cut was relatively weak, given the detente in the Sino-American trade war. "We expect the RBA to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting both further welcome progress in returning core inflation back towards target and the continuing highly uncertain global backdrop," the pair said. The central bank will also update its quarterly economic predictions on Tuesday in an otherwise quiet week on the data front. The Victorian government will unveil its budget on the same day, with ratings agency S&P Global warning the nation's most indebted state to rein in spending or risk seeing its AA credit rating downgraded further. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by the tariff reprieve, rising for their fifth day in a row by the end of the week. Australian shares reached a three-month high on Friday after eight straight sessions of gains.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Shock jump in Australia's employment rate
More Australians are in the workforce for the second straight month, correcting a soft start to the year, new figures show. Employment rose by 89,000 in the month of April beating expectations of a 20,000 person lift in Aussies finding a job. Overall, the unemployment came in line with experts predictions, holding steady at 4.1 per cent. Despite the spike in the number of Aussies working, the unemployment rate did not change as the participation rates or those who are either in or want a job also rose by 3 percentage points to 67.1 per cent. Oxford Economics Australia Sean Langcake said Thursday's spike in activity will likely be short-lived. 'While the market had not slackened materially, employment growth had slowed and participation came back from its peak, which was partly attributed to older workers' employment decisions,' he said. 'These trends reversed in April, with stellar jobs growth taking the market more or less back to where it was in January. 'The surge in activity is likely to be partly related to the Federal election campaign, which means this strength will be short lived.' ABS head of labour statistics Sean Click said 'with employment increasing by 89,000 people and the number of unemployed increasing by 6,000 people, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent for April.' The rise in employment is the last piece of economic data the Reserve Bank of Australia will get ahead of next week's rate decision. The strong job figures followed data released on Wednesday which showed wages are also on the rise, up 3.4 per cent. This was 1 per cent above headline inflation of 2.4 per cent, showing workers on aggregate are going forward. But most of the pay rises were due to awards and a boost in public service jobs. A stronger than expected labour market, while good for Aussies looking for a job, is a key component of inflation. The rise in employment was largely led by female participation, up 65,000 compared with last month, while 24,000 males found a new job. Over the last 12-months employment has grown by 390,000 people, or 2.7. This annual growth rate is higher than the population growth rate for people aged 15 years and over, which was 2.1 per cent over the same period. The strong growth in employment led to a rise in the employment-to-population ratio of 0.3 percentage points to 64.4 per cent in April, just below the record high of 64.5 per cent seen in January.
