Latest news with #Oxley
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The UK defense industry's biggest problem isn't just cash — it's also companies like Amazon
Like much of the world, the UK is ramping up its defense spending. But defense companies are now competing with an expanding talent-hungry tech sector for scarce skills. "We need a sea of talent," a defense sector insider told BI. "At the moment, it's a puddle." When Calvin Bailey — a member of the UK parliament — was a squadron commander in the country's Royal Air Force, he saw a shift in how his engineering-heavy workforce changed careers. In the early 2010s, people would leave the service "like for like," he told Business Insider — meaning they were leaving the military for complementary roles in the defense and aerospace industry. However, by around 2017, he said, a new sprawl of high-tech companies and major infrastructure projects created a demand for skills that the military had nurtured, such as robotics, advanced engineering, and logistics. Bailey wrote in a recent piece for War on the Rocks that he watched as the military "hemorrhaged" certified aircraft engineers. "I found myself competing with unlikely adversaries: Amazon logistics hubs," he wrote. As the UK attempts to redress the effects of decades of reduced military spending, it's not just a steep price tag that has experts worried. It's a shrunken — and highly competitive — skills pipeline. Bailey still doesn't think the UK is spending enough, he told BI. But even if the country throws money at it, "you haven't got the skills base with which to go and do the work that's required." Paul Oxley, a spokesperson for UK defense trade association ADS Group, told BI that demand for skilled workers now presents the defense industry's "largest barrier for growth." This covers everything from traditional skills like welding and high-end engineering, to growing fields like cybersecurity, digital, and AI capabilities. Oxley said that surveys of ADS members have seen the issue of talent leapfrog energy prices to become the top worry for many companies. These concerns come amid an increased commitment by the UK to defense spending — to 2.5% of GDP — that has defense-related industries looking out for new orders. Big projects are already in the works. Dreadnought-class submarines, the Tempest fighter jet, and Type 26 and 31 frigates are due to come into service in the next decade or so. Yet in March, Kevin Craven, the head of ADS Group, warned lawmakers that skills shortages are "combining to a point where both the defence and aerospace industry cannot fulfil the demand that they have." These warnings also come as the government prepares to publish its latest Defence Industrial Strategy, which a Ministry of Defence spokesperson said will help the UK have the "capability, skills and industrial resilience" for warfighting. Multiple skills initiatives are already underway, they added. The UK's defense sector pays an average of £39,900, Oxley said, which is about $53,000 and around 14% higher than the national average. But even that can't always compete with other sectors, Bailey, the MP, said. Meanwhile, many companies, like Amazon, actively recruit UK veterans as part of a government program pledging to support post-service careers. Amazon declined to comment when approached by BI. Bailey shared that other competing industries include infrastructure projects, such as the recent nationwide rollout of electric smart meters. He told BI those leaving the RAF for such companies "would find an easier job — because it's less regulated and controlled and demanding on their skills — paying equal or more than they would expect on the general market." In addition, security clearances make it hard to hire from abroad — and in any case, the UK's nearest European defense industry neighbors are themselves in a scramble for talent. The expansion of a talent-hungry tech sector compounds a much longer-running skills issue. Andrew Kinniburgh, a spokesperson for manufacturing industry trade body Make UK, told the Defence Select Committee in March that the country is in an "arms race" for engineers. Campaigners say STEM has been neglected from the earliest schooldays up, causing a shortage that has seen all sectors — not just military — competing for talent. That situation wasn't helped by the Apprenticeship Levy, a 2016 attempt to invigorate private sector investment in training. It was so cumbersome that schemes fell by 172,000 across all sectors in its first year, according to HR industry body CIPD. The government now says it's streamlining the process. Industry experts told BI that another reason defense sector workforce skills have atrophied is a long-term lack of investment in the military that began in the 1990s. The defense ministry spokesperson told BI that the current government is addressing the country's security "after years of hollowing out." People like naval architects and high-level engineers take decades to nurture, and when orders dry up, "you have skill fade in these areas quite quickly," said Sam Cranny-Evans, a freelance defense analyst and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. "Once they're gone, they're gone," he told BI. "Standing them up again is really hard." COVID-19 lockdowns haven't helped. Suddenly, people with 10 to 15 years left in their careers decided to accelerate their retirement plans, leaving what Oxley called a "handover cliff edge" and a decadelong knowledge gap. The problem has come to a head before. In the early 2000s, BAE Systems took over a contract to produce the Astute-class submarine, following a 10-year gap since the development of the earlier Vanguard-class sub. Dated skills — among other factors — became a major problem, forcing the UK to bring in General Dynamics Electric Boat, a US company, to help at an eventual cost of about $145 million. The project ran years late, exceeded its budget by hundreds of millions of pounds, and spurred multiple reckonings that still reverberate today. Janet Garner, BAE Systems' future workforce director for submarines, told BI the company is focused on ensuring it has a strong submarine workforce. She highlighted its $33.5-million training center and said early careers programs are "up to record levels." An analysis by Navy Lookout highlighted lessons learned, saying that the next-generation Dreadnought went into production with a much more experienced workforce. But across the industry, there's a long road ahead. Oxley and Bailey say there's a lot more to be done, and that skills need to be addressed at the level of education. Both are calling for schools and colleges to develop applied STEM curricula showcasing the appeal of working in defense. Encouraging a much more flexible career structure, allowing people to "zig-zag" between the military and civilian sectors and making the relationship complementary rather than competitive, is also among the suggestions being made. Tan Dhesi, a lawmaker heading up the UK parliament's Defence Select Committee, declined to comment in detail while the inquiries continue, but said that he had seen "clear and consistent" evidence that the issue needs addressing. "We need a sea of talent," Oxley said. "At the moment, it's a puddle." Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Insider
27-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
The UK defense industry's biggest problem isn't just cash — it's also companies like Amazon
Like much of the world, the UK is ramping up its defense spending. But defense companies are now competing with an expanding talent-hungry tech sector for scarce skills. "We need a sea of talent," a defense sector insider told BI. "At the moment, it's a puddle." When Calvin Bailey — a member of the UK parliament — was a squadron commander in the country's Royal Air Force, he saw a shift in how his engineering-heavy workforce changed careers. In the early 2010s, people would leave the service "like for like," he told Business Insider — meaning they were leaving the military for complementary roles in the defense and aerospace industry. However, by around 2017, he said, a new sprawl of high-tech companies and major infrastructure projects created a demand for skills that the military had nurtured, such as robotics, advanced engineering, and logistics. Bailey wrote in a recent piece for War on the Rocks that he watched as the military "hemorrhaged" certified aircraft engineers. "I found myself competing with unlikely adversaries: Amazon logistics hubs," he wrote. As the UK attempts to redress the effects of decades of reduced military spending, it's not just a steep price tag that has experts worried. It's a shrunken — and highly competitive — skills pipeline. Bailey still doesn't think the UK is spending enough, he told BI. But even if the country throws money at it, "you haven't got the skills base with which to go and do the work that's required." A skills shortage in the defense industry Paul Oxley, a spokesperson for UK defense trade association ADS Group, told BI that demand for skilled workers now presents the defense industry's "largest barrier for growth." This covers everything from traditional skills like welding and high-end engineering, to growing fields like cybersecurity, digital, and AI capabilities. Oxley said that surveys of ADS members have seen the issue of talent leapfrog energy prices to become the top worry for many companies. These concerns come amid an increased commitment by the UK to defense spending — to 2.5% of GDP — that has defense-related industries looking out for new orders. Big projects are already in the works. Dreadnought-class submarines, the Tempest fighter jet, and Type 26 and 31 frigates are due to come into service in the next decade or so. Yet in March, Kevin Craven, the head of ADS Group, warned lawmakers that skills shortages are "combining to a point where both the defence and aerospace industry cannot fulfil the demand that they have." These warnings also come as the government prepares to publish its latest Defence Industrial Strategy, which a Ministry of Defence spokesperson said will help the UK have the "capability, skills and industrial resilience" for warfighting. Multiple skills initiatives are already underway, they added. An 'arms race' for skills The UK's defense sector pays an average of £39,900, Oxley said, which is about $53,000 and around 14% higher than the national average. But even that can't always compete with other sectors, Bailey, the MP, said. Meanwhile, many companies, like Amazon, actively recruit UK veterans as part of a government program pledging to support post-service careers. Amazon declined to comment when approached by BI. Bailey shared that other competing industries include infrastructure projects, such as the recent nationwide rollout of electric smart meters. He told BI those leaving the RAF for such companies "would find an easier job — because it's less regulated and controlled and demanding on their skills — paying equal or more than they would expect on the general market." In addition, security clearances make it hard to hire from abroad — and in any case, the UK's nearest European defense industry neighbors are themselves in a scramble for talent. A shortage decades in the making The expansion of a talent-hungry tech sector compounds a much longer-running skills issue. Andrew Kinniburgh, a spokesperson for manufacturing industry trade body Make UK, told the Defence Select Committee in March that the country is in an "arms race" for engineers. Campaigners say STEM has been neglected from the earliest schooldays up, causing a shortage that has seen all sectors — not just military — competing for talent. That situation wasn't helped by the Apprenticeship Levy, a 2016 attempt to invigorate private sector investment in training. It was so cumbersome that schemes fell by 172,000 across all sectors in its first year, according to HR industry body CIPD. The government now says it's streamlining the process. The looming threat of 'skill fade' Industry experts told BI that another reason defense sector workforce skills have atrophied is a long-term lack of investment in the military that began in the 1990s. The defense ministry spokesperson told BI that the current government is addressing the country's security "after years of hollowing out." People like naval architects and high-level engineers take decades to nurture, and when orders dry up, "you have skill fade in these areas quite quickly," said Sam Cranny-Evans, a freelance defense analyst and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. "Once they're gone, they're gone," he told BI. "Standing them up again is really hard." COVID-19 lockdowns haven't helped. Suddenly, people with 10 to 15 years left in their careers decided to accelerate their retirement plans, leaving what Oxley called a "handover cliff edge" and a decadelong knowledge gap. The problem has come to a head before. In the early 2000s, BAE Systems took over a contract to produce the Astute-class submarine, following a 10-year gap since the development of the earlier Vanguard-class sub. Dated skills — among other factors — became a major problem, forcing the UK to bring in General Dynamics Electric Boat, a US company, to help at an eventual cost of about $145 million. The project ran years late, exceeded its budget by hundreds of millions of pounds, and spurred multiple reckonings that still reverberate today. Janet Garner, BAE Systems' future workforce director for submarines, told BI the company is focused on ensuring it has a strong submarine workforce. She highlighted its $33.5-million training center and said early careers programs are "up to record levels." An analysis by Navy Lookout highlighted lessons learned, saying that the next-generation Dreadnought went into production with a much more experienced workforce. But across the industry, there's a long road ahead. A 'puddle' of talent Oxley and Bailey say there's a lot more to be done, and that skills need to be addressed at the level of education. Both are calling for schools and colleges to develop applied STEM curricula showcasing the appeal of working in defense. Encouraging a much more flexible career structure, allowing people to "zig-zag" between the military and civilian sectors and making the relationship complementary rather than competitive, is also among the suggestions being made. Tan Dhesi, a lawmaker heading up the UK parliament's Defence Select Committee, declined to comment in detail while the inquiries continue, but said that he had seen "clear and consistent" evidence that the issue needs addressing. "We need a sea of talent," Oxley said. "At the moment, it's a puddle."
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Yahoo
Scam victims can't get back cash they put in Bitcoin ATM, Iowa Supreme Court rules
Two cybercrime victims won't be able to recover their money, seized from a third-party cryptocurrency company, the Iowa Supreme Court has ruled. The decisions, issued Friday, May 1, involve two Iowans who were targeted in nearly identical scams. In July 2023 and February 2024, the two were contacted by an unknown person online and told to purchase cryptocurrency at a Bitcoin ATM in Linn County, and to send the bitcoin to a digital wallet controlled by the scammers. One scammer claimed to be from the "Geek Squad" and said the victim's accounts had been "compromised," while the other claimed the victim had child pornography on their computer and demanded money not to turn the victim in, according to court filings. Both individuals did as they were told, purchasing and sending more than $14,000 apiece in bitcoins. Both then contacted law enforcement officials, who, in the ensuing investigations, seized the cash deposited from the Bitcoin ATM. The purchased bitcoin, however, has not been recovered. From 2023: Clive resident falls victim to cryptocurrency scam; police warn to be on the lookout The question before the Iowa Supreme Court was, once investigators no longer need the money as part of their case, who gets it? In separate opinions on the cases, one by Justice Dana Oxley and the other unsigned, the justices reversed a lower court and ruled that ATM operator Bitcoin Depot should get to keep the cash. Key to the decision is that the crypto ATM requires users to confirm they owned the wallets they were sending bitcoin to, and prominently warned users against scams. "There is no evidence in the record before us that Bitcoin Depot had reason to know that a scammer had contacted (the victim) and told her that she needed to purchase bitcoins from the Bitcoin ATM and transfer them into a specified wallet to avoid her accounts being impacted," Oxley wrote, holding that Bitcoin ATM had done nothing wrong and was entitled to keep the money. USA Today: How crooks convinced her to put $17,500 into a bitcoin ATM to 'secure' her money An attorney for the victims and attorneys for Bitcoin Depot declined to comment. Friday's decisions are a win for Bitcoin Depot, but the company is embroiled in a larger struggle with the Iowa Attorney General's Office, which sued it and another crypto ATM company in March. The state claims Iowans have lost more than $20 million in scams facilitated through the company's ATMs and accused Bitcoin Depot and competitor CoinFlip of failing to protect users against scammers. William Morris covers courts for the Des Moines Register. He can be contacted at wrmorris2@ or 715-573-8166. This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Supreme Court says Bitcoin Depot can keep cash deposited in scams
BBC News
04-05-2025
- General
- BBC News
Unravelling the tale of York's gladiator bitten by a lion
While brand new research into a mutilated skeleton exhumed in York has revealed the first-ever proof of gladiators fighting lions, it was a decision by an archaeologist more than 20 years ago that enabled this buried secret to be discovered in the first story began in 2004 with a planning application for a development on a street about half a mile (1km) outside the city city archaeologist for York Council, John Oxley's job was to assess the potential archaeological impact of allowing flats to be built on a green space on Driffield York's importance in the Roman world as a provincial capital and major military base, it was already known the street lay within an area where burials from that time were Oxley had to ponder whether to object to the plans on the basis that it could potentially disturb any archaeology in the he instead opted for approval - as long as the developer agreed to pay for underground exploratory work in the hope of uncovering something with research potential. That vital decision eventually saw the unearthing of a truly remarkable find: a mass graveyard believed to contain the bodies of Roman gladiators who had lived and died in the city. Mr Oxley reflects: "At the time, it had been 16 or so years since any previous excavation of any Roman burials in York."And here we were at Driffield Terrace, with what turned out to be information that was truly astounding."Roman burial sites in British cities are not unusual, but there were certain features that made this one in York stand with more remains found during excavation of a patio at a second site also on Driffield Terrace, some 80 skeletons were excavated - the majority of which were of young, well-built the evidence of their bones, these men had lived and died of the 1,800-year-old remains showed healed injuries on their heads, faces, fingers and vertebrae, suggesting they had seen a lot of had much stronger muscles in the right arm, a condition noted by Roman writers in slaves trained to fight in the Mr Oxley recalls what was most striking was that at least 46 of the skeletons had been decapitated. In ancient Rome, decapitation, particularly after gladiatorial combat, was a common practice, often used as a final act of Oxley explains: "In other Roman cemeteries, you would expect about 5% of inhumations to be decapitated, but this percentage was much, much higher."So these decapitations were very, very unusual."Back in 2004, Mr Oxley would regularly visit the site during the excavation work, which was overseen by York Archaeological reflects: "You were looking at these skeletons, some whose heads had been placed between their knees, or others whose heads had been placed back on their shoulders but facing the wrong way, and you would get this very strong feeling something really unpleasant had happened to them."He describes the memory of seeing one individual buried with huge iron rings around his shackles, Mr Oxley says, would have been "red hot" when they were likely fixed on him when alive. It was a process which had caused the man injury, given the healed wounds evident on his ankle bones."There was this overwhelming sense of horror that not only had this individual undergone this brutal process of having these rings put on, but then he's somehow in a situation where he's either fought to his death or been executed." Among all the skeletons uncovered, there was one which had preserved signs of an especially gruesome decapitated man, aged between 26 and 35, had various bite marks on his hip, and initial analysis concluded they had been caused by a large fictional depictions of gladiatorial combat with big cats have featured in historical texts and images, as well as in modern films, the nature and scale of such combat in Roman Britain has been was no published evidence to provide direct testimony of such events taking place in the province until the new research based on the find in York emerged last month confirming physical evidence of these beastly battles. While that gives a new glimpse into life in Roman York, there still remains, tantalisingly, a missing piece in the city's gladiatorial jigsaw - an as a symbol of power, and to host a variety of public spectacles - most famously gladiatoral fights and public executions - York was large and important enough to have this kind of so far, no trace of one has ever been Oxley says: "It's unthinkable that York did not have an amphitheatre."Although we haven't yet found any evidence, the view of most experts is it's likely to be in the area of the Museum Gardens and Kings Manor."That theory is based on the placement of amphitheatres found in Chester and Caerleon in south Wales, which, along with York, were major bases for Roman legionaries. But digging to find that evidence is not easy, Mr Oxley explains. "Because of its continued importance over 2,000 years, York has always been this centre of power and occupation."So, you get these incredibly deep deposits in the city, the Romans being the first ones who are right at the bottom."It makes it very difficult to get to the bottom and you'd have to go two to three metres down to find anything."He adds: "I've been stood in that area so many times and thought, 'oh, if only we can dig and see what's down there'."It's incredibly frustrating but, unfortunately, that's archaeology."Meanwhile, Mr Oxley is modest about the role he played in 2004 which led to the unravelling of new evidence."I like to think of it as a relay race," he says."Someone in my position is able to set up the opportunity, but you pass the baton on to the archaeologists on site, who then pass it on to other experts down the line."The result is that here we are, 20 years later, talking about a site that keeps on giving and feeding our imaginations." Listen to highlights from North Yorkshire on BBC Sounds, catch up with the latest episode of Look North.
News.com.au
24-04-2025
- Politics
- News.com.au
‘We've never been asked': Uncomfortable truth about immigration debate
In October 1996, Prime Minister John Howard sat down in the Sydney studio of 2UE talkback host John Laws for a lengthy discussion about the one subject on everyone's mind — immigration. A month earlier, Pauline Hanson set off a national firestorm when the newly elected Member for Oxley declared in her maiden speech to parliament that the country was 'in danger of being swamped by Asians' who 'have their own culture and religion, form ghettos and do not assimilate'. While her remark is shocking by today's standards, at the time, polls suggested many Australians agreed with her. Mr Howard insisted it was 'inaccurate to say that we are being swamped'. 'We will never go back in this country to having a discriminatory immigration policy based on race,' he told Laws. 'That is gone and I think it is morally, politically and economically in this country's interest that it be gone.' But the then-PM stressed he agreed 'with the reality that we need to have a debate about things like immigration', warning of the danger if 'people feel shut out of the immigration debate'. 'The greatest complaint I have from people, and it's been going on for some years, is, 'Look, we don't feel that we've ever, sort of, been consulted about the level of immigration, we don't feel that we've ever been asked, we don't feel that you lot down there have ever listened, we have this idea that you've all sort of got together and decided it's too hard for us to handle,'' he said. 'People have felt as though it's a bottled-up thing.' A few years later, Mr Howard would oversee the start of Australia's 21st century 'Big Australia' boom, culminating in record post-Covid immigration of more than one million people under Labor — and now an election fight over which party will bring the numbers back under control. For many Australians in 2025, Mr Howard's words ring even truer nearly three decades later, 'We don't feel we've ever been asked.' But as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese faces far-right hecklers on the campaign trail, and migrant communities report rising racist rhetoric, there are echoes of Mr Howard's other warning to Laws. 'In the process of taking the cork out of the bottle we've got to be absolutely certain that the ratbags and the bigots … that they get treated as they deserve to be treated, and that is with contempt,' he said. Changing face of Australia Today nearly one in three people in Australia was born overseas, the highest proportion since before Federation. More than half of the population now was either born overseas or has a parent born overseas. 'In 1901, four of Australia's top five countries of birth were in Europe and one was in Asia,' the ABS states. 'By 2021, one was in Europe and three were in Asia. China was in the top five at Federation due to the attraction of the Gold Rush and a series of internal crises in China from 1849 and 1887. The proportion of people born in China started to decline as the Gold Rush ended and the White Australia policy was enacted.' The growth of the Indian diaspora, in particular, has been explosive. Between 2013 and 2023, Australia's Indian-born population more than doubled from 378,480 to 845,800, overtaking Chinese-born residents — who went from 432,400 to 644,760 — to become the second-largest migrant community making up 3.2 per cent of the total population. 'Since 2001, the main sources of Australia's overseas born population growth have been from those born in India and China,' the ABS states. 'The growth in migrants from these countries is likely due to Australia's strong labour market and university sector as well as Australia's geographic proximity.' In the same 10-year period, the number of residents born in England fell from more than one million to 961,570, while those born in Italy — the only other country in the top 10 to decline — fell from 200,670 to 158,990 — reflecting the ageing of the post-World War II migration wave. 'Key reasons for the fall in European-born populations include moving away from a discriminatory immigration system and assisted migration programs in the 1970s and the European Union's freedom of movement laws, which have made it relatively easier and cheaper for Europeans to access the labour market across Europe,' according to the ABS. 'In addition, Europe's ageing population will lower the number of people who are likely to migrate. An ageing European-born population in Australia has also contributed to the decline in these overseas born populations. For an overseas born population to remain large, constant high levels of migrants from the home country are needed to replace deaths — this is because the children of overseas born people are counted as Australian born.' In 2023-24, the top countries for migrant arrivals were India and China, driven by record numbers of international students on temporary visas. Under the permanent migration program — which only accounts for about 40 per cent of the net overseas migration figure as most granted visas are already in the country — citizens from India, Afghanistan and Pakistan saw the strongest growth last year. Between 2021-22 and 2023-24, 115,317 Indian nationals were granted permanent visas, nearly double the 63,982 permanent migrants from China. 'White extinction anxiety' Public concerns about housing affordability and cost-of-living pressures mask a more uncomfortable reality. The rapid shift in the ethnic makeup of Australia's new arrivals means any opposition to immigration is, unavoidably, tied up in questions of race, religion and culture. 'Anti-immigration discourse has become entrenched in mainstream politics across many Western countries,' Deakin University's Samantha Schneider writes for 'We see it in the United States, since the 2024 election of Donald Trump, and in European countries where political parties such as Alternative for Germany (AfD) and France's National Rally (RN) have platformed anti-immigration policies and sentiments as central to their electoral appeals. Contemporary mainstream conservative anti-immigrant rhetoric includes the scapegoating of immigrants for high rates of youth gang crime, terrorism, and the current housing crises facing various Western countries.' These debates in Australia are 'nothing new' and have 'periodically characterised previous election cycles'. 'Many ordinary Australians are able simultaneously to feel positive about multiculturalism and migrant communities while expressing fears around the perceived impact of population growth resources, for example, in relation to housing, health care and urban amenity,' Ms Schneider writes. 'But for some extreme and radical right social movements in Australia, as elsewhere in the world, concerns around immigration are linked to resource distribution and scarcity. 'These ideas have long been weaponised to support fantasies of racial homogeneity and purity and rigid hierarchies of social value and power in society. Extreme and radical right social movements deploy anti-immigration sentiment as a central plank of their efforts to drive social polarisation, create fear and anxiety about social change, and accelerate the collapse of Australian society to usher in an exclusivist ethno-nationalist state of white Australians.' Ms Schneider said these extreme elements 'elevate the concept of an ultranationalist 'white nation' while simultaneously claiming this imagined 'nation' is under constant siege and attack from ethnic, religious and racial others, producing 'white extinction anxiety''. 'Screaming out for less' One of the most prominent voices among the new online Australian right is Jordan Knight, a former One Nation staffer turned anti-immigration influencer. Mr Knight has amassed tens of thousands of young followers across his Migration Watch social media channels. He first began speaking out on the issue for 'selfish' reasons, after seeing rents fall during Covid border closures and the subsequent resurgence of migration. 'The major concerns for me obviously are housing, homelessness is rising,' he said. 'But it's not even just homelessness, it's quality of life. If your rent is going up faster than you can afford it, you're forced into worse living situations. This is a standards-of-living issue. This brings with it all sorts of second-order consequences [for infrastructure]. If we're growing our population by 500,000 people, 700,000 people a year, but we're not growing our roads, our hospital services, we're not growing out housing market, then they're all going to be under immense strain. What we're seeing is a rapid deterioration of living standards in Australia.' Mr Knight believes immigration is a 'civilisational and existential question'. 'Why are the elites doubling down on mass immigration when most Australians, most westerners, are screaming out for less and less?' he said. 'Partly I believe it's ideological. I think the people who want more immigration are those who are so wealthy that they're typically removed from the effects of immigration. They might not see the impacts on roads, hospitals. Another part of it is people simply make money from it.' And then there's the other elephant in the room — are governments simply importing voters? A Brookings Institute study in the US last year found immigrant voters, even those who identified as socially conservative, leaned heavily Democratic. 'Labor hasn't admitted that they're bringing in migrants because migrants will vote for Labor,' Mr Knight said. 'But if you're in the Labor Party, and you're seeing that your political power will grow on the back of a high migration scheme, you're probably not going to be incentivised to stop it. [Electorates with large migrant voting blocs represent] a Balkanisation of our politics and it just shows that mass immigration really does impact democracy in Australia.' According to Mr Knight, Australians deserve a proper national debate on the role of immigration 'but our leaders aren't listening, they don't want to have that conversation'. 'Australians should [decide], but we've never had a proper discussion or debate or a referendum on its role in Australia,' he said. 'People want cultural compatibility when it comes to immigration, but that's just never discussed. The worst thing that we've ever done as a country is these technocratic leaders have treated immigration as nothing more than a spreadsheet, nothing more than just numbers and words on a page, and losing a certain selectiveness.' He sees rising tensions 'because people feel hard done by'. 'Especially if you see, for example, ongoing protests in Australian cities,' he said. 'If we see clashes between different groups on our streets [from] two countries that we actually have no idea or care about really, then Australians are going to stop and question, like, OK how is this benefiting me? My rent has gone up, my wage hasn't moved in 20 years, my town where I grew up is changing rapidly and I may have to move because it's so expensive, and I can't even take my kids into the city because there's a massive protest now. I was told immigration, multiculturalism was good for me, and actually I'm poorer, my country is less cohesive and my living standards are getting destroyed. So what in this is good for me?' What do Aussies want? Public opinion polls, when they have been conducted, have generally found Australians favour lower immigration. A 2023 survey for Nine Newspapers found 62 per cent of voters felt the intake was too high, and successive polls by The Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI) have put the figure at 60-80 per cent. The Scanlon Foundation's long-running Mapping Social Cohesion study last year found the share of people who think immigration is too high had increased to 49 per cent, up from 41 per cent pre-Covid. But the findings suggested this was largely linked to concerns economic concerns like housing and cost-of-living, with 85 per cent agreeing 'multiculturalism has been good for Australia'. And of those who said immigration was too high, only 7 per cent said immigration was the most important problem facing Australia, compared with 48 per cent who cited economic issues and 15 per cent pointing to housing shortages and affordability. Overall just 4 per cent thought immigration was the biggest problem facing Australia. Monash University Emeritus Professor Andrew Markus, who pioneered the Scanlon Index of Social Cohesion in 2007, said it was clear from the numbers that immigration was not the 'major issue' for most Australians. 'Now the economy is tied in with immigration as well, but, top-of-mind issue? The Scanlon survey is not finding that,' he said. 'You also need to get a broader perspective, if you look at the long term … it's not unusual to get 40-45 per cent, that would probably be the normal benchmark for immigration being too high.' Prof Markus argued that whatever their views, 'for a lot of people' immigration amounted to 'so, what?' — having little real impact on their day-to-day life. 'So it's the sort of question where you're never going to get 80 per cent of people saying it's wonderful,' he said. Notably, the Scanlon Foundation survey found concerns about more than four in five (83 per cent) people were opposed to Australia rejecting migrants on the basis of their ethnicity or race, while a similar proportion (79 per cent) were opposed to rejecting on the basis of religion. '[In the 1980s there was] a majority negative view towards immigration,' said Prof Markus. 'There were a number of polls then, and that got caught up with the Asian issue, which was highly politicised, because Australia came out of the White Australia policy not much earlier than '88. Probably in real terms we didn't really move away from that policy until the late '70s with Vietnamese migration. That was probably the first major break within that. We've really moved away from that now. It's not so much about ethnicity or religion, it's much more about the economic impact.' TAPRI founder Bob Birrell has been researching public attitudes on immigration since the 1980s. His most recent poll found just 11 per cent wanted the current high numbers to continue, while overall only 27 per cent said Australia needs more people. More than three quarters believed adding more people pushes up the cost of housing. Like Prof Markus, Mr Birrell says it's unclear whether immigration is a vote changer, despite the increasing noise on the campaign trail. 'Immigration [in Australia] has not become a telling political issue as is recently the case in Britain and much of western Europe because our migration flow, though much higher than people would like, has not been accompanied by high levels of illegal migration, open community conflict or terrorism,' he said. 'In other words, people don't like the Australian migration outcomes but it's not high enough on the political attention scale to change votes.' 'They don't like diversity' In direct contrast to the Scanlon Foundation findings, TAPRI's poll uncovered significant pushback to the core tenets of Australia's non-discriminatory migration policies — a shift which Mr Birrell attributes to rising community tensions in the wake of the Israel-Gaza war. Fifty-nine per cent of respondents said selection policy 'should include a migrant's ability to fit into the Australian community', while only 28 per cent said 'religion, values and way of life should not affect selection decisions'. 'The big change is the effect of community-based opposition to Israel representing the Palestinian community and expressing their concerns in anti-Semitic language,' Mr Birrell said. 'That's frightening to people who regard themselves as one Australia. That is the priority, that we should stick together as one nation and not be breaking down into [ethnic factions]. That's very strongly held in the majority of the electorate, and the same attitudes are held by a big majority of European and English-speaking migrants as well. They're just as critical of multiculturalism as the Australian-born. They simply don't like diversity, even though they're a part of the diversity. Multiculturalism in a sense for them is dead. They aspire primarily to be Australians.' Mr Birrell said it was striking that voters were now comfortable speaking about migration in these terms. 'The upsurge in community-based agitation in relation to the Palestinian issue does seem to have created a new sense of concern,' he said. 'The majority of people were quite willing to say that they didn't agree with the fundamental core of multiculturalism, which is above all we must accept diversity regardless of people's origins.' Prof Markus disagreed. 'One of the things I look for is that indication of heightened hostility, and there isn't much evidence of that,' he said. 'It's not like the 1980s when there was a big debate about Asian immigration, and there were times when [there was a debate] about immigrations from Africa, in the 1990s and early 2000s, again we don't have that.' But he warned 'Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, those sort of issues are important'. 'Conflicts in the university environment I think are very significant,' he said. 'The level of fear that we have in sections of our Australian community, that's certainly not normative. Obviously, if you talk to people in the Jewish community, they would say that it's pretty much unprecedented.' Dr Abul Rizvi, former deputy secretary of the Immigration Department, warned any change to Australia's non-discriminatory migration program would only further threaten social cohesion. 'I guess the question would be, how would you do that?' he said. 'Trump wanted a Muslim ban, for example — is that what we're talking about? He's now said, well we're going to ban migrants from certain countries — is that what we're talking about? The definition of what you would do remains vague to me. Unless someone could sit down and say this is what I mean, it's all just wafting in the wind. I hate to use the phrase dog-whistling but that's what it seems like to me.' Dr Rizvi said America and Europe, with their low fertility rates, faced a bleak future if they 'move down that path'. 'The fact is over the next 20, 30, 40 years, the competition for young skilled migrants of any colour will keep intensifying,' he said. 'People are kidding themselves if they think it will go away. China will enter the immigration market, they'll have to. They're not going to sit back and say we're going to halve our population.'
