Latest news with #PCEPriceIndex
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the Market's Long-Term Outlook is Bullish
Despite the recent flurry of tariff news and economic uncertainty portrayed by pundits, several key indicators are flashing bullish signals, including: The 'GDPNow Model' is a model created by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to provide a real-time estimate of the current quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Through its 'Nowcasting' model, the GDPNow Model leverages a purely data-driven model that interprets current data to predict the future instead of simply predicting future economic conditions. Between the first negative GDP reading in several quarters, an escalating trade war, and negative sentiment, the GDP picture looked quite bleak. However, the current market environment illustrates why savvy investors rely on data-driven predictive models to eliminate bias and find the hard truth. In the latest reading, the GDPNow Model for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 2025 is a robust 3.8%, up from 2.2% in the last reading. Image Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta The PCE Price Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures) number was released Friday. The reading came in at a 2.1% gain year-over-yea,r which was softer than Wall Street expected. The key inflation rate hit a 4-year low. Image Source: FRED Meanwhile, 'Supercore PCE,' which measures the price of 'core services,' saw its first negative reading since COVID. The latest inflation reading shows that President Trump's tariff policy has not negatively impacted prices (at least yet.) With PCE near the Fed's 2% target, investors should expect rate cuts in 2025 – a bullish development for stocks. Bull markets are driven by high-growth industries, and currently, the industry with the most innovation and the highest growth potential is the artificial intelligence (AI) space. Within the AI industry, Nvidia (NVDA), thesemiconductor leader, is the most important stock. In fact, without Nvidia's GPUs, it's impossible to be an AI leader. The company's earnings report in late May showed that there is plenty of room for the industry left to grow. Revenue bolted 69% year-over-year to $44 billion despite a $4.45 billion charge attributed to H20 product export restrictions to China. Despite the uncertainty in the macro trade environment, Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates suggest that top and bottom-line growth will continue to grow at a healthy clip in the mid-double-digits. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Meanwhile, other AI industry leaders echo Nvidia's significant growth. For instance, fellow AI leader and recent IPO CoreWeave (CRWV) reported Q1 revenue of $982 million, a fourfold year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, the Amazon (AMZN) AWS Chief reported Friday that AI cloud sales have reached multiple billions. Bitcoin and bitcoin proxies like iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) have been valuable tools for investors to leverage as a leading indicator. For instance, IBIT topped on December 17th, 2024, well before the S&P 500 Index topped in February 2025. Now, IBIT is breaking out to new highs well before the major US equity indices. Could they follow next? Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Meanwhile, other risk-on areas of the market are showing that the 'animal spirits' are alive and well. For example, quantum computing leader D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is up nearly 70% year-to-date. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The general market exhibits a massive change of character over just the past month or two. For instance, Friday, President Trump said on social media that 'China's has totally violated its agreement with the US.' Earlier in the year, stocks would have plunged on this news. However, this time, the market opened lower by around 1%, only to quickly find buyers and finish the session green. Brushing off bad news is a hallmark of a bull market and is a subtle clue for savvy investors that the market is resilient. Now, the S&P 500 is setting up a picture-perfect daily bull flag pattern. Image Source: TradingView Bottom Line The confluence of strong economic indicators, the AI revolution, and the market's resilient behavior point to a market where bulls are in control. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Inc. (AMZN) : Free Stock Analysis Report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) : Free Stock Analysis Report CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for June 2, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Geo-political tensions are once again on the rise and comments from Trump administration on EU and China are also keeping market participants on edge. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Investors face uncertainty regarding their gold investment decisions due to multiple factors affecting market sentiment. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, coupled with evolving US-China trade negotiations, have created ambiguity in the precious metals market. What is the gold rate prediction for this week and what should investors do? Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices: Gold prices slipped from a two-week high after US President Donald Trump postponed the implementation of 50% tariffs on EU imports to July 9, easing immediate trade tensions and reducing safe-haven demand. This delay came after the EU requested more time for negotiations, leading to a temporary pullback in bullion prices. However, geopolitical risks continued to support underlying demand, with Russia launching the largest aerial assault of the war on Ukraine and Israel intensifying military strikes in Gaza. Meanwhile, gold remained under pressure from a stronger US dollar, as the dollar index hovered near the 100 mark amid rising US bond yields and mixed economic data. A US trade court initially blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, only for a federal appeals court to reinstate them a day later, injecting uncertainty into markets. On the economic front, US consumer confidence came in stronger than expected at just under 100, compared to a forecast of 87.1, while core durable goods orders rose 0.2% against expectations of a 0.1% decline. However, preliminary US GDP remained in negative territory, reinforcing concerns about slowing growth. The April PCE Price Index rose 2.1% year-on-year, slightly below the 2.2% estimate, suggesting softening inflation pressures. Weekly jobless claims exceeded expectations, adding to mixed economic signals. Minutes from the Fed's May meeting revealed growing concern about the dual risk of rising inflation and unemployment, with policymakers indicating that rate cuts remain possible later this year but are not imminent. Geo-political tensions are once again on the rise and comments from President Trump's administration on EU and China are also keeping market participants on edge. Focus this week will be on US Jobs market data, manufacturing and Services PMI from major economies and Governor Powell's speech. RBI and ECB monetary policy statements will also be in radar this week. Gold Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips; Support: 94500-93500; Resistance 96500-97500 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Economic Times
29-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold price today in the U.S. dips sharply—Is this an economic earthquake, which Trump tariff ruling triggered it, and what should investors watch out for next?
Why are gold prices falling despite inflation concerns? How much is gold worth right now in different units? Per Ounce: Around $3,268.50, down from $3,271.17 the previous day. Around $3,268.50, down from $3,271.17 the previous day. Per Gram: Roughly $106.50. Roughly $106.50. Per Kilogram: Close to $106,500. Are gold etfs showing the same trend? SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 0.5%, trading at $305.45. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has risen 0.5% to $62.50. abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) is up 0.4%, now at $31.61. Live Events What's the impact of the court ruling on the dollar and gold? Where are gold prices headed next? What are investors watching now for gold direction? U.S. core PCE Price Index (due Friday) – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could influence interest rate expectations and gold pricing. Weekly jobless claims and revised GDP numbers – Any surprises here may swing market sentiment quickly. Fed policymakers' speeches – Their tone could give hints about the next policy moves. U.S.-China trade headlines – With talks of new tech restrictions on China surfacing from the New York Times, geopolitical tensions could add further volatility. Is this a buying opportunity for gold investors? FAQs: (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Gold prices in the U.S. have slipped as of May 29, 2025, driven by renewed economic concerns and shifting investor sentiment. Spot gold is now hovering around $3,268.50 per ounce, reflecting a 0.6% decline from the previous day, with the market reacting to a mix of legal, economic, and geopolitical often seen as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, has taken a step back recently. The immediate trigger? The U.S. economy shrank by 0.2% in Q1 2025, raising questions about growth prospects and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, according to the same time, a U.S. federal court ruling on May 28, 2025, struck down a series of Trump-era tariffs, strengthening the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold, making it more expensive for foreign buyers and reducing overall gold ETFs haven't followed the same path as spot prices. As of today:This slight uptick may suggest that long-term investors still see gold as a valuable asset, especially during market U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that several tariffs introduced under President Trump were unlawful, claiming they exceeded presidential authority, according to Reuters. This legal decision boosted the U.S. dollar, which has been recovering steadily, putting pressure on have shifted attention toward riskier assets, as this ruling is viewed by some as a positive step for global trade. The dollar's climb has made gold less attractive, especially as inflation pressures appear to ease futures for June 2025 are currently priced around $3,283.70 per ounce, per Yahoo Finance, and MarketWatch. Analysts believe that $3,250 could act as a strong support level, while resistance sits near $3, the gold market is in a short-term downtrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slipping below midline (near 49.50), and buyers recently failed to hold the $3,295 level, which was key prices fall further, watch for potential support around $3,230 and $3,168 — both crucial levels tied to previous Fibonacci retracement patterns. On the upside, a clear break above $3,350 would be needed to revive the bullish with short-term weakness, some analysts say this dip could be a buying opportunity for long-term holders. With gold still trading above key support zones, and market uncertainty far from over, many see gold as a smart always, market timing is tricky—but for those betting on inflation risks, global conflict, or dollar volatility, gold's current levels might offer prices are falling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and weak GDP see support near $3,250 and resistance close to $3,300 in 2025.
Time of India
29-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price today in the U.S. dips sharply—Is this an economic earthquake, which Trump tariff ruling triggered it, and what should investors watch out for next?
Why are gold prices falling despite inflation concerns? How much is gold worth right now in different units? Per Ounce: Around $3,268.50, down from $3,271.17 the previous day. Around $3,268.50, down from $3,271.17 the previous day. Per Gram: Roughly $106.50. Roughly $106.50. Per Kilogram: Close to $106,500. Are gold etfs showing the same trend? SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 0.5%, trading at $305.45. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has risen 0.5% to $62.50. abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) is up 0.4%, now at $31.61. Live Events What's the impact of the court ruling on the dollar and gold? Where are gold prices headed next? What are investors watching now for gold direction? U.S. core PCE Price Index (due Friday) – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could influence interest rate expectations and gold pricing. Weekly jobless claims and revised GDP numbers – Any surprises here may swing market sentiment quickly. Fed policymakers' speeches – Their tone could give hints about the next policy moves. U.S.-China trade headlines – With talks of new tech restrictions on China surfacing from the New York Times, geopolitical tensions could add further volatility. Is this a buying opportunity for gold investors? FAQs: (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Gold prices in the U.S. have slipped as of May 29, 2025, driven by renewed economic concerns and shifting investor sentiment. Spot gold is now hovering around $3,268.50 per ounce, reflecting a 0.6% decline from the previous day, with the market reacting to a mix of legal, economic, and geopolitical often seen as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, has taken a step back recently. The immediate trigger? The U.S. economy shrank by 0.2% in Q1 2025, raising questions about growth prospects and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, according to the same time, a U.S. federal court ruling on May 28, 2025, struck down a series of Trump-era tariffs, strengthening the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold, making it more expensive for foreign buyers and reducing overall gold ETFs haven't followed the same path as spot prices. As of today:This slight uptick may suggest that long-term investors still see gold as a valuable asset, especially during market U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that several tariffs introduced under President Trump were unlawful, claiming they exceeded presidential authority, according to Reuters. This legal decision boosted the U.S. dollar, which has been recovering steadily, putting pressure on have shifted attention toward riskier assets, as this ruling is viewed by some as a positive step for global trade. The dollar's climb has made gold less attractive, especially as inflation pressures appear to ease futures for June 2025 are currently priced around $3,283.70 per ounce, per Yahoo Finance, and MarketWatch. Analysts believe that $3,250 could act as a strong support level, while resistance sits near $3, the gold market is in a short-term downtrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slipping below midline (near 49.50), and buyers recently failed to hold the $3,295 level, which was key prices fall further, watch for potential support around $3,230 and $3,168 — both crucial levels tied to previous Fibonacci retracement patterns. On the upside, a clear break above $3,350 would be needed to revive the bullish with short-term weakness, some analysts say this dip could be a buying opportunity for long-term holders. With gold still trading above key support zones, and market uncertainty far from over, many see gold as a smart always, market timing is tricky—but for those betting on inflation risks, global conflict, or dollar volatility, gold's current levels might offer prices are falling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and weak GDP see support near $3,250 and resistance close to $3,300 in 2025.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Consumer-price inflation slows in April, but tariff impact on prices will linger
U.S. consumer price inflation eased again last month, suggesting little impact from President Donald Trump's tariff regime heading into the second quarter. The Commerce Department pegged its headline Consumer Price Index for April at an annual rate of 2.3%, down from the 2.4% pace recorded in March and the consensus forecast from analysts on Wall Street. On a monthly basis, price pressures rose 0.2%, quickening from the 0.1% decline recorded in March, as domestic gasoline prices rose 2.36% to an average of $3.30 per gallon, according to Energy Department data. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and energy, held at an annual rate of 2.8%, matching both the Wall Street forecast and March's 2.8% pace. The monthly core reading of 0.2% was also inside Wall Street's 0.3% forecast and the final March reading of 0.1%. "It's still early to fully gauge the impact of tariffs on both inflation and growth," said Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist at BOK Financial. "However, this morning's report indicated a smaller-than-expected 0.2% increase in both headline and core inflation." This data is unlikely to change the Fed's outlook but suggests that inflation trends were declining before tariffs were implemented," he added. "More trade agreements and reduced tariffs could benefit both inflation and growth, easing the pressure on the Fed to act.' U.S. stocks pared declines following the data release, with futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 indicating an opening-bell gain of around 10 points and the Nasdaq priced for a 90-point gain. The Dow was called 90 points lower, thanks in part to the 9% slump for index heavyweight UnitedHealth Group () . Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields were modestly lower at 4.445% following the data release, while 2-year notes were pegged 2 basis points lower at 3.977%.The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 1.2% lower at 101.674. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, showed a modest tick higher in March price pressures. That benchmark followed a weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP reading that could stoke stagflation concerns in the world's biggest economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's PCE Price Index report for March, which the Federal Reserve closely tracks for a clearer indication of inflation pressures, on Wednesday showed core prices rising at an annual rate of 2.6%, with the headline figure easing to 2.3%. More Economic Analysis: Fed inflation gauge sets up stagflation risks as tariff policies bite U.S. recession risk leaps as GDP shrinks Like it or not, the bond market rules all However, the broader impact of Trump's complicated tariff schedule is only partly evident in the April inflation readings, given the myriad exemptions, pauses and rollbacks his administration has announced. A global baseline duty of 10% on all U.S. trading partners went into effect April 5, with 25% levies on some goods from Canada and Mexico kicking in at the start of the month. "There is also a 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, and foreign-made vehicles," said Louis Navellier of Navellier Calculated Investing. "These will show up in inflation data, though it is hard to say how much. More carveouts will be agreed to, as we saw in the UK agreement." Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
