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Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk - Auto, QSR, and defence among top picks in current market cycle: PL Capital's Sandip Raichura
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Sandip Raichura, Executive Director and CEO – Retail and Distribution at PL Capital Group, shares his market outlook amidst global uncertainties and domestic the broader indices may face near-term pressure, Raichura believes momentum in Indian equities remains intact, driven by a combination of structural and cyclical factors. In an insightful conversation, he outlines why Auto, QSR (Quick Service Restaurants), and Defence sectors are emerging as strong investment themes in the current market cycle, and how investors—both retail and HNIs—can position their portfolios for the long haul. Edited Excerpts - ADVERTISEMENT Q) Thanks for taking the time out. The month of May started on a volatile note with benchmark indices witnessing wild swings on either side. How are you reading into markets?A) We had earlier forecast a recovery from 22k levels to 25k levels currently. We now expect the indices to face some near-term downward pressure as a lot of global developments are keeping markets on tenterhooks. However, a good and timely monsoon coupled which could spur rural demand, tax breaks for the middle classes in the Union Budget and globally, positive developments on tariff wars could keep the markets positively biased. We expect Nifty to have reached its fair value around current levels, but momentum could carry these higher especially if the US dollar corrects from 99 levels towards 92 or so. Any rate cuts by RBI beyond expectations could of course have a much stronger positive impact Q) What is the sense you are making from the March quarter results? Are downgrades more than upgrades this time around? A) While the overall earnings season has shown resilience in certain sectors, the prevalence of downgrades suggests caution among investors. ADVERTISEMENT March 2025 Quarter has presented a mixed picture, with a notable trend of earnings downgrades surpassing upgrades. The Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio stood at 0.3x, the lowest since Q1FY21. Q) We have seen IndusInd bank results, and more skeletons could come out of the closet in near future. What should investors do who are invested in these type of companies with corporate governance issues? ADVERTISEMENT A) Our sense is that most of the lapses have been corrected, and no significant deviations are expected. For FY26/27E we trim loan growth by 5%/2% to 8%/11% and subsequently due to cascading effect cut NII by 15%/13%.This would result in an earnings cut of 31%/26% and ABV reduction of avg. 8.6%. RBI has requested proposals for new CEO appointment by 30th Jun'25; near to medium term performance would hinge on the pedigree of the prospective CEO and the respective strategy to improve governance, credibility and fundamentals. ADVERTISEMENT Stock is trading at 0.8x on Mar'27 ABV; we maintain multiple at 0.9x but cut TP to Rs780 from Rs860. Retain HOLD. Q) What is the long-term outlook for Indian equities over the next few years?A) Markets seem to have digested the uncertainty related to global tariff wars on hopes of lesser disruption and trade agreements by major an end to global turmoil is not in sight as Chinese growth is slowing down, US interest rates are holding steady and interest rates in Japan are moving up. ADVERTISEMENT Overall, the scenario is ripe for another 50bps rate cut by RBI over the next 6 months, however the declining rate differential with US and other large economies is a key factor to watch out for. Q) Which sectors are expected to deliver strong returns going forward? Any safe bets which investors can consider? A) We expect benefits for Auto, Hotels, Airlines, Durables/ electronics, QSR, Apparel, Footwear, Building Material, Household Goods, Paints and addition, Capital Goods, Defence, Hospitals, Pharma, EMS, Travel and Telecom continue to have positive added Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Rainbow Children's Medicare and Hindustan Aeronautics in conviction picks. Q) How can high-net-worth individuals effectively build wealth in the current market environment? A) We believe larger investors should have a slightly large cap biased portfolio – from the NSE 100 index typically, apart from some exposure to quality stocks like Hinduja Finance, NSE etc in the unlisted are not very confident that the evolving situation is ideal for weak balance sheets or internationally exposed companies and for that reason, we recommend staying invested in well-known also believe longer tenor bond funds could be looked at as we possibly are headed towards a decline in long duration interest rates especially if GDP growth doesn't pick up speed and inflation remain under conservative investors may want to look at dynamic bond funds and gold in their portfolios from a 2-year perspective Q) What is your take on Gold? Recently, it crossed Rs 1 lakh in the physical market. Right time to increase allocation or investors should wait for some cool off? A) Gold is on a structural bull run and continuous buying by central banks right from USD 2200 levels continues believe that we are in for major changes in the way the world trades with each other and of course, the Ukraine Russia conflict will keep gold buoyant as well. Declines in USD may also support positive moves. We believe gold has to be at least 5% of client portfolios even at current levels. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk - Auto, QSR, and defence among top picks in current market cycle: PL Capital's Sandip Raichura
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Sandip Raichura, Executive Director and CEO – Retail and Distribution at PL Capital Group, shares his market outlook amidst global uncertainties and domestic the broader indices may face near-term pressure, Raichura believes momentum in Indian equities remains intact, driven by a combination of structural and cyclical an insightful conversation, he outlines why Auto, QSR (Quick Service Restaurants), and Defence sectors are emerging as strong investment themes in the current market cycle, and how investors—both retail and HNIs—can position their portfolios for the long haul. Edited Excerpts -A) We had earlier forecast a recovery from 22k levels to 25k levels currently. We now expect the indices to face some near-term downward pressure as a lot of global developments are keeping markets on a good and timely monsoon coupled which could spur rural demand, tax breaks for the middle classes in the Union Budget and globally, positive developments on tariff wars could keep the markets positively expect Nifty to have reached its fair value around current levels, but momentum could carry these higher especially if the US dollar corrects from 99 levels towards 92 or so. Any rate cuts by RBI beyond expectations could of course have a much stronger positive impactA) While the overall earnings season has shown resilience in certain sectors, the prevalence of downgrades suggests caution among 2025 Quarter has presented a mixed picture, with a notable trend of earnings downgrades surpassing upgrades. The Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio stood at 0.3x, the lowest since Q1FY21.A) Our sense is that most of the lapses have been corrected, and no significant deviations are expected. For FY26/27E we trim loan growth by 5%/2% to 8%/11% and subsequently due to cascading effect cut NII by 15%/13%.This would result in an earnings cut of 31%/26% and ABV reduction of avg. 8.6%. RBI has requested proposals for new CEO appointment by 30th Jun'25; near to medium term performance would hinge on the pedigree of the prospective CEO and the respective strategy to improve governance, credibility and is trading at 0.8x on Mar'27 ABV; we maintain multiple at 0.9x but cut TP to Rs780 from Rs860. Retain HOLD.A) Markets seem to have digested the uncertainty related to global tariff wars on hopes of lesser disruption and trade agreements by major an end to global turmoil is not in sight as Chinese growth is slowing down, US interest rates are holding steady and interest rates in Japan are moving the scenario is ripe for another 50bps rate cut by RBI over the next 6 months, however the declining rate differential with US and other large economies is a key factor to watch out for.A) We expect benefits for Auto, Hotels, Airlines, Durables/ electronics, QSR, Apparel, Footwear, Building Material, Household Goods, Paints and addition, Capital Goods, Defence, Hospitals, Pharma, EMS, Travel and Telecom continue to have positive added Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Rainbow Children's Medicare and Hindustan Aeronautics in conviction picks.A) We believe larger investors should have a slightly large cap biased portfolio – from the NSE 100 index typically, apart from some exposure to quality stocks like Hinduja Finance, NSE etc in the unlisted are not very confident that the evolving situation is ideal for weak balance sheets or internationally exposed companies and for that reason, we recommend staying invested in well-known also believe longer tenor bond funds could be looked at as we possibly are headed towards a decline in long duration interest rates especially if GDP growth doesn't pick up speed and inflation remain under conservative investors may want to look at dynamic bond funds and gold in their portfolios from a 2-year perspectiveA) Gold is on a structural bull run and continuous buying by central banks right from USD 2200 levels continues believe that we are in for major changes in the way the world trades with each other and of course, the Ukraine Russia conflict will keep gold buoyant as in USD may also support positive moves. We believe gold has to be at least 5% of client portfolios even at current levels.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
NDTV
28-04-2025
- Business
- NDTV
Sensex Opens Over 400 Points, Nifty Rises Over 88 Points In Early Trade
Mumbai: The Indian equity benchmark indices opened higher on Monday amid mixed global cues, as buying was seen in the PSU bank and financial service sectors in the early trade. At around 9.30 am, Sensex was trading 400.7 points or 0.51 per cent up at 79,613.28 while the Nifty climbed 88.65 points or 0.37 per cent at 24,128.00. Nifty Bank was up 347.85 points or 0.64 per cent at 55,011.90. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 53,801.00 after increasing 230.80 points or 0.43 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 16,518.65 after declining 28.55 points or 0.17 per cent. According to analysts, markets were poised to open on a strong note, as indicated by GIFT Nifty trends, which show a gap-up of around 110 points for the Nifty. This positive setup came after a volatile session on Friday, where the Indian benchmark indices ended over 0.5 per cent lower. Nifty, after finding a tough resistance near the 24,350 zone, witnessed profit booking with high fluctuations during the session to end near the important 200 period SMA at 24,050 level with bias shaken to some extent but having the overall trend still maintained positive. "As mentioned earlier, we maintain our stance, with the index having the near-term significant support positioned near the 23,800 zone which if sustained, can regain with the positive move for further rise in the coming days," said Vaishali Parekh, Vice President-Technical Research, PL Capital Group. "The support for the day is seen at 23,800 levels while the resistance is seen at 24,300 levels," Parekh added. Meanwhile, in the Sensex pack, M&M, Eternal, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, SBI, Hindustan Unilever Limited and L&T were the top gainers. Whereas, HCL Tech, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Nestle India, ITC and UltraTech Cement were the top losers. In the last trading session on Friday, Dow Jones in the US added 0.05 per cent to close at 40,113.50. The S&P 500 climbed 0.74 per cent to 5,525.21 and the Nasdaq added 1.26 per cent to close at 17,382.94. In the Asian markets (except China), Jakarta, Bangkok, Seoul, Hong Kong, and Japan were trading in green. On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained consistent net buyers, marking their eighth straight session of inflows with Rs 2,952.33 crore on April 25. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), after three sessions of net selling, turned net buyers with inflows of Rs 3,539.85 crore.
