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New York Post
09-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Post
Yankees vs. Athletics pick: Fade the starting pitchers on Friday night
Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information. Not all results during the 162-game baseball season are created equal, and you have to think that Wednesday's 4-3 victory for the Yankees over the Padres was a bigger boost than just the plus-1 in the win column. Not only did the Yanks get another splendid start from Max Fried, but the much maligned Devin Williams got the win by wriggling out of a bases-loaded jam in the 10th inning. The Yankees now head to Sacramento for a three-game set with the Athletics over the weekend. The Pinstripes are a -146 favorite on the road. Yankees vs. Athletics betting preview Will Warren will get the start for the Yankees at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, and that seems like a recipe for disaster. Sutter Health Park has been a happy hunting ground for hitters this season, ranking second overall in Park Factors behind Camden Yards. Warren has struggled to keep bats quiet this season, ranking in the bottom one percent of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity in 2025. The 25-year-old has matched that with a poor walk rate, which has led to a 5.65 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 28 ⅔ innings of work. Warren is able to get strikeouts and groundballs, but he's far too prone to walks and dingers, which is bad news in this ballpark and against an Athletics offense that is performing admirably. Osvaldo Bido of the Athletics pitching at Sutter Health Park. Getty Images The good news for the Yankees is that Warren's counterpart, Osvaldo Bido, has also struggled to get going this season. Bido, like Warren at Yankee Stadium, doesn't have an easy job pitching half of his starts in a band box, but his statistical profile is underwhelming. Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting Yankees vs. Athletics pick Given the hitting conditions, the pitching matchup, and the offenses on display, it's no surprise to see a juiced-up 10.5 as the total for Friday's contest in Sacramento. Instead of going in that direction, I'll isolate this starting pitching matchup by playing the Over 5.5 runs in the first five innings, as it's hard to imagine neither of these offenses posting some crooked numbers against Warren and/or Bido. The Play: F5 innings – Over 5.5 runs
Yahoo
10-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Baseball: Top infield sleepers (1st base, 2nd base, 3rd base & shortstop)
Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don rounds the bases to identify his favorite sleepers at each infield position. If you want even more sleepers, click here for his options from every MLB team. Gelof's ADP has sunk compared to last year thanks to a down 2024, but he's one season removed from posting a 132 wRC+ as a 23-year-old. Gelof has averaged 16 homers and 20 steals over just 104 games during his two years in the majors. He's a clear batting average risk, but last season's .201 BABIP against left-handers is sure to regress. Gelof has clubbed 20 of his career 31 homers on the road, so he'll benefit from Oakland's move to Sacramento. The Oakland Coliseum ranked as the fifth-worst for RHB over the past three years, according to Park Factors. The Athletics will be moving to Sutter Health Park, which has played mostly neutral in Triple-A, but A's hitters should benefit from their new climate and significantly smaller foul territory. The park also had a new batter's eye installed to improve visibility. OOPSY projects Gelof to be one of only two second basemen to go 20/20 this year. He's a sleeper available late in fantasy drafts. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2025 MLB season] Mountcastle has lost 11 homers to Baltimore's left-field wall over 2022-24, so he gets a boost in fantasy drafts thanks to dimension changes at Camden Yards. The Orioles are moving in their left-field wall to fix an overcorrection after moving it back before the 2022 season. The dimension changes could have a real impact, as the moved-back wall prevented 196 home runs over the last three years. Oriole Park has decreased HR for RHB by 21% (the third-most in MLB) over that span, and it's produced the second-lowest HR/FB rate for righties since 2023. Mountcastle should return to 20+ homers in 2025. Story's draft standing has become a discount after three straight injury-filled seasons. He remains a batting average risk, but Story could return plenty of value while hitting in Boston's lineup. Fenway isn't Coors Field, but it's been MLB's second-best hitter's park for right-handed batters over the last three seasons. Story has been aggressive on the base paths since joining the Red Sox, and OOPSY projects 19 home runs and 27 steals while missing 20+ games. Story is a cheap way to fill middle infield late in drafts. Shaw has been slowed by an oblique injury to open spring, but he made his Cactus League debut on Sunday. Shaw enters 2025 as the favorite to start at third base in Chicago. Shaw was a top-15 pick in the 2023 draft, and he posted a 146 wRC+ across the minors last year. He also added 21 homers and 31 stolen bases over just 443 at-bats. Shaw is eligible at three positions in Yahoo, and he's capable of going 20/20 as a rookie if playing time cooperates. Manzardo put up big numbers in the minors and should get an opportunity as Cleveland's full-time DH in 2025 with Josh Naylor gone. He's eligible at 1B in Yahoo leagues, and Manzardo recorded a 147 wRC+ with five home runs over 63 ABs in September. He could hit second against RHP, right in front of José Ramírez. Moreover, Cleveland suddenly became incredibly HR-friendly for left-handed batters last year after Progressive Field removed some shipping containers and created a 'wind tunnel.' Progressive Field had suppressed HR for LHB by 15% over 2022-23, but it boosted them by 16% last season. It's best to use three-year samples in Park Factors, but Manzardo would get an additional boost if Cleveland continues to be a much different hitting environment. Vaughn isn't an overly exciting pick, but he's one of the cheaper sources for 20 homers and 75 RBI. Vaughn is slated to hit cleanup in Chicago's lineup, and Luis Robert Jr. should bounce back hitting in front of him. Steamer projects similar stat lines for Vaughn and Michael Toglia, who goes multiple rounds higher in fantasy drafts. India has disappointed since winning Rookie of the Year in 2021, and leaving Great American Ballpark will cost him some homers. But India finally proved he can stay healthy over a full season last year, and he's set to bat leadoff in Kansas City. He's also moving to one of the few parks in baseball that isn't a downgrade from Cincinnati. Kauffman Stadium unquestionably limits homers, but it's tied with Great American Ballpark (and Fenway) as baseball's second-best hitter's park for right-handed batters over the last three seasons. Kauffman Stadium has decreased strikeouts for RHB an MLB-high 14% over that span, and it's increased Hard-Hit% the second-most. India should make up for lost homers with a better batting average in 2025, and realize that second base can become tricky to fill in leagues with stricter position rules. Rengifo has seen a weird career trajectory, but last year's version flashed 40-steal upside. Rengifo doesn't possess great Sprint Speed, but he recorded 24 stolen bases over just 78 games last season and plays on an Angels team that likes to run. Rengifo's counting stats were limited thanks to missing half of 2024, but he's set to bat second in Los Angeles' lineup this year, in front of Mike Trout. Rengifo is also 3B-eligible and is available more than 200 picks into Yahoo drafts. Correa continues to miss games, and his plantar fasciitis could return, but that's why his ADP is so depressed. He hit .310 with 14 homers, 55 runs scored and 54 RBI over just 319 ABs last season. Correa's 155 wRC+ would've ranked eighth among qualified hitters. He won't contribute any steals, but Correa remains an elite hitter at a premium position. OOPSY projects Correa to post the fifth-best wRC+ (134) among shortstops in 2025, ahead of Mookie Betts. Correa had played 135+ games in each of the previous three seasons before last year, and he says his foot is good to go. Few, if any, players offer Correa's upside when he's going in drafts. Crawford was a bust last year while suffering through an injury-riddled campaign, but he's just one season removed from posting the second-highest wRC+ (136) among all qualified shortstops. He also added 19 homers and 94 runs scored over 145 games played in 2023. A possible lower spot in Seattle's lineup and the extremely pitcher-friendly Safeco Field are hurdles, but Crawford is free at drafts tables for those searching for SS help. He was legitimately one of baseball's best hitters in 2023 and could easily bounce back in 2025. Lowe has dealt with numerous injuries since going 39-97-99-7 in 2021, but he's continued to hit well. Missed playing time has hurt his counting stats, also lowering his ADP. OOPSY projects Lowe to slug the most homers (26) and have the highest wRC+ (131) among all second basemen this season, and that's factoring in him missing nearly 40 games. Lowe is an absolute steal with an ADP outside 210. Giménez was one of 17 players to reach 30 steals last year, but he sports an ADP past Pick 200 in Yahoo drafts. He's coming off a down year at the plate, but Giménez has a career 103 wRC+ and is still just 26 years old. His elite defense will keep him regularly in the Blue Jays' likely improved lineup. Giménez's K% has dropped three straight seasons, and his Sprint Speed is in the 89th percentile. Moreover, Giménez should also benefit from leaving Cleveland, as he's hit better on the road than at Progressive Field throughout his career; his OPS (.588) was 100 points lower at home last season (when many of his teammates had massive splits the other way). Giménez is an affordable way to draft a 15/30 player. Lowe was traded to Washington during the offseason, where he's slated to bat cleanup. Nationals Park has been the fourth-best hitter's park for lefties over the last three seasons, when it's decreased strikeouts an MLB-high 18%. Lowe clubbed 27 homers with a 143 wRC+ two seasons ago, and he owned a top-35 wRC+ (121) last year. Lowe can help in batting average, and he'll rack up RBI hitting behind James Wood. Lowe's a solid sleeper.
Yahoo
03-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
30 MLB teams, 30 fantasy baseball sleepers for 2025 drafts
Thirty teams in major league baseball; thirty sources for sleeper potential in fantasy baseball. That's Dalton Del Don's mission here — to identify one fantasy draft sleeper from every squad. Justin Martínez enters the favorite to close in Arizona, but Puk is Arizona's best reliever who's available later in fantasy drafts. Puk recorded a microscopic 1.72 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP over 57.2 innings after moving to relief last season. His SIERA (2.16) and CSW (33.9%) both ranked top five among relievers. Puk's K-BB% (30.0) was behind only Mason Miller. Puk has an extensive injury history, but he's a former top pitching prospect who looks perfectly suited to a full-time move to the bullpen. Meanwhile, Martínez owns a career 5.12 BB/9 rate. Puk is going undrafted in 30% of Yahoo leagues, but his range of outcomes includes finishing as a top five fantasy closer in 2025. Gelof's ADP has sunk compared to last year thanks to a down 2024, but he's one season removed from posting a 132 wRC+ as a 23-year-old. Gelof has averaged 16 homers and 20 steals over just 104 games during his two years in the majors. He's a clear batting average risk, but last season's .201 BABIP against left-handers is sure to regress. Gelof has clubbed 20 of his career 31 homers on the road, so he'll benefit from Oakland's move to Sacramento. The Oakland Coliseum ranked as the fifth-worst for RHB over the past three years, according to Park Factors. The Athletics will be moving to Sutter Health Park, which has played mostly neutral in Triple-A, but A's hitters should benefit from their new climate and significantly smaller foul territory. The park also had a new batter's eye installed to improve visibility. OOPSY projects Gelof to be one of only two second basemen to go 20/20 this year. He's a sleeper available late in fantasy drafts. Holmes made his MLB debut last season after being a first-round pick 10 years ago, and he'll enter 2025 part of Atlanta's starting rotation. Holmes' K-BB% (21.8) while starting last season would've ranked eighth among qualified SPs, just behind Zack Wheeler. Here's the list of pitchers who recorded a better CSW than Holmes last year: Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale. That's it. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2025 MLB season] Holmes' Chase% is in the 97th percentile, while his BB% is in the 90th. He owns the third-highest SwStr% on sliders over the last two seasons. Holmes will benefit from pitching for a Braves team primed to produce more run support in 2025, so he's a steal while going undrafted in 55% of Yahoo leagues. Mountcastle has lost 11 homers to Baltimore's left-field wall over 2022-24, so he gets a boost in fantasy drafts thanks to dimension changes at Camden Yards. The Orioles are moving in their left-field wall to fix an overcorrection after moving it back before the 2022 season. The dimension changes could have a real impact, as the moved-back wall prevented 196 home runs over the last three years. Oriole Park has decreased HR for RHB by 21% (the third-most in MLB) over that span, and it's produced the second-lowest HR/FB rate for righties since 2023. Mountcastle should return to 20+ homers in 2025. Story's draft standing has become a discount after three straight injury-filled seasons. He remains a batting average risk, but Story could return plenty of value while hitting in Boston's lineup. Fenway isn't Coors Field, but it's been MLB's second-best hitter's park for right-handed batters over the last three seasons. Story has been aggressive on the base paths since joining the Red Sox, and OOPSY projects 19 home runs and 27 steals while missing 20+ games. Story is a cheap way to fill middle infield late in drafts. Shaw has been slowed by an oblique injury to open spring, but he's expected to play in games soon without restrictions. Shaw enters 2025 as the favorite to start at third base in Chicago. Shaw was a top-15 pick in the 2023 draft, and he posted a 146 wRC+ across the minors last year. He also added 21 homers and 31 stolen bases over just 443 at-bats. Shaw is eligible at three positions in Yahoo, and he's capable of going 20/20 as a rookie if playing time cooperates. Lodolo was 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 20.5 K-BB% that ranked top 20 among starters before suffering a finger injury during his 12th start of the season last year. He posted a 7.38 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over his final 50.0 innings after returning, when the injury still affected his ability to grip his curveball (even after the blister healed). Lodolo's curveball suffered a dramatic decrease in vertical break as a result. Lodolo hasn't proven he can stay healthy, but none of his injuries have involved his arm and his finger should be back to 100%. Great American Ballpark is without question a hurdle, but Lodolo's LOB% should regress, and this is a former top-10 pick with elite stuff (especially when he can properly grip the baseball). Lodolo's career 4.52 ERA comes with a 3.53 SIERA. He matched Paul Skenes' CSW last year while pitching injured. Lodolo is the SP69 in Yahoo ADP, but he has top-20 starter upside. Go get him. Manzardo put up big numbers in the minors and should get an opportunity as Cleveland's full-time DH in 2025 with Josh Naylor gone. He's eligible at 1B in Yahoo leagues, and Manzardo recorded a 147 wRC+ with five home runs over 63 ABs in September. He could hit second against RHP, right in front of José Ramírez. Moreover, Cleveland suddenly became incredibly HR-friendly for left-handed batters last year after Progressive Field removed some shipping containers and created a 'wind tunnel.' Progressive Field had suppressed HR for LHB by 15% over 2022-23, but it boosted them by 16% last season. It's best to use three-year samples in Park Factors, but Manzardo would get an additional boost if Cleveland continues to be a much different hitting environment. Jones was a fantasy bust last season, but a lingering back injury was a major reason why. He's one season removed from posting a 132 wRC+ while going 20/20 over just 367 at-bats. A healthy Jones could hit cleanup in the Rockies' lineup, and Coors Field remains the best hitter's park in baseball (for both lefties and righties). Coors Field has increased run scoring an MLB-high 25% over the past three seasons while decreasing strikeouts by 11%. Rockies' hitters had a collective .332 BABIP last year, which was 10 points higher than the next best. Jones' 2023 also included monster numbers in Triple-A, and his legit combination of power/speed offers major fantasy upside at a depressed ADP. Vaughn isn't an overly exciting pick, but he's one of the cheaper sources for 20 homers and 75 RBI. Vaughn is slated to hit cleanup in Chicago's lineup, and Luis Robert Jr. should bounce back hitting in front of him. Steamer projects similar stat lines for Vaughn and Michael Toglia, who goes multiple rounds higher in fantasy drafts. Meadows' ADP may take a dip while being shut down with a nerve issue, but there's no structural damage and he hopefully shouldn't miss too much time. Meadows posted a 137 wRC+ with six homers and five steals over the final two months (186 ABs) after returning from injury last year. The improved performance came with a mechanical swing change, so Meadows looks like a prime breakout candidate while hitting leadoff in 2025. Arrighetti's 4.53 ERA was accompanied by a 3.93 SIERA as a rookie last season. He suffered a few blowup outings, but Arrighetti also struck out 11 or more batters three times over a five-start stretch in August. He posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and the seventh-best CSW (just behind Tarik Skubal) after the All-Star break. Helped by elite extension, Arrighetti had four different pitches induce a 10%+ SwStr%. He's a major sleeper. India has disappointed since winning Rookie of the Year in 2021, and leaving Great American Ballpark will cost him some homers. But India finally proved he can stay healthy over a full season last year, and he's set to bat leadoff in Kansas City. He's also moving to one of the few parks in baseball that isn't a downgrade from Cincinnati. Kauffman Stadium unquestionably limits homers, but it's tied with GAB (and Fenway) as baseball's second-best hitter's park for right-handed batters over the last three seasons. Kauffman Stadium has decreased strikeouts for RHB an MLB-high 14% over that span, and it's increased Hard-Hit% the second-most. India should make up for lost homers with a better batting average in 2025, and realize that second base can become tricky to fill in leagues with stricter position rules. Rengifo has seen a weird career trajectory, but last year's version flashed 40-steal upside. Rengifo doesn't possess great Sprint Speed, but he recorded 24 stolen bases over just 78 games last season and plays on an Angels team that likes to run. Rengifo's counting stats were limited thanks to missing half of 2024, but he's set to bat second in Los Angeles' lineup this year, in front of Mike Trout. Rengifo is also 3B-eligible and is available 215 picks into Yahoo drafts. Conforto hit a modest 20 homers last season, but it's worth noting 85% of them came on the road. He had just three home runs and 15 RBI with an 83 wRC+ at home, but Conforto hit 17 homers and recorded 51 RBI with a 133 wRC+ on the road. San Francisco's Oracle Park decreased HR for LHB a whopping 27% last season. Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium has increased HR for LHB by 16% over the past three years. In other words, Conforto went from a bottom-three home park for left-handed power to a borderline top-five park with the move to Los Angeles. Last year's .237 batting average was accompanied by a .257 expected BA, and Conforto's upgraded environment can't be understated. Conforto might hit lower in L.A.'s lineup, but that's for an offense that scored 149 more runs than the Giants last season. And while he could lose some at-bats via getting replaced defensively later in games, his ability to hit lefties should keep him out of a platoon. Conforto is going undrafted in 80% of Yahoo leagues. Calvin Faucher enters 2025 as the favorite to close in Miami, but Tinoco looks like the better pitcher who's also available much later in fantasy drafts. Tinoco posted a 2.03 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP over 26.2 innings after joining Miami last year thanks to increased slider usage. His overall K-BB% (18.5), CSW (29.0%) and SIERA (3.29) were all superior to Faucher's (15.7%, 26.6%, 3.61). Tinoco is going undrafted in more than 80% of Yahoo leagues. Mitchell is a former first-round pick who could go 20/25 this year if health cooperates. He's slated to hit cleanup in Milwaukee's lineup, and American Family Field has boosted homers for lefties by 19% over the last three seasons (the third-most in MLB). Mitchell was one of just three players to record a bat speed > 75 mph and a Sprint Speed in at least the 90th percentile, along with Elly De La Cruz and Julio Rodríguez. Mitchell is primed to breakout in 2025. Correa continues to miss games, and his plantar fasciitis could return, but that's why his ADP is so depressed. He hit .310 with 14 homers, 55 runs scored and 54 RBI over just 319 ABs last season. Correa's 155 wRC+ would've ranked eighth among qualified hitters. He won't contribute any steals, but Correa remains an elite hitter at a premium position. OOPSY projects Correa to post the fifth-best wRC+ (134) among shortstops in 2025, ahead of Mookie Betts. Correa had played 135+ games in each of the previous three seasons before last year, and he says his foot is good to go. Few, if any, players offer Correa's upside when he's going in drafts. Holmes is attempting to become the newest success story of reliever moving to starter. His numbers have been elite out of the pen since joining New York, including the 11th best CSW (32.4%) among 169 qualified RPs last year. The Mets offer a full opportunity to start with a depleted rotation, and Holmes will benefit from moving across New York. While Yankee Stadium is one of the three best parks in boosting homers, Citi Field is one of baseball's more favorable pitcher's parks. Holmes has introduced a new pitch mix during spring, and he's a steal in fantasy drafts. Schmidt is being drafted as the SP66 in Yahoo leagues despite posting a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP during his second year as a starter last season. Injuries limited his workload, but he finished the year healthy. Schmidt recorded a 26.3 K% that would've ranked top 15 had he qualified, and only five starters — Blake Snell, Cole Ragans, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease — had a higher ZoneSwing% and at least a 44% ground ball rate. Schmidt's CSW would've also ranked top 15 among qualified starters, just behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yankee Stadium boosts home runs (and walks), but it plays neutral overall. New York's SPs led baseball in wins last season, recording 60% more than the White Sox's starting staff. Schmidt's ERA will likely rise this season, but he's still someone to target at an incredible discount. Jasson Domínguez is also undervalued in fantasy drafts. Jordan Romano enters as the Phillies' new closer after signing in Philadelphia during the offseason, but he's coming off a down season and elbow surgery. Romano says he's feeling great and the early results have been positive, but it may be worth noting the Blue Jays non-tendered him with no replacement to close in Toronto. Kerkering, meanwhile, looks like one of baseball's best relievers who's ready to step into the closer's role. He had a better K-BB% than Jhoan Duran and Andrés Muñoz last season, and his SIERA (2.60) was the 12th best among 169 qualified relievers. Kerkering possesses the league's best sweeper and huge fantasy upside should he secure Philadelphia's ninth-inning role. Bart looked like a bust as San Francisco's No. 2 overall pick in 2018, but he resurrected his career after joining Pittsburgh last season. Bart hit .265 with 13 homers and 45 RBI over half a season, and his 121 wRC+ would've been second behind only William Contreras among qualified catchers. Bart will find some at-bats at DH when not catching, and he's slated to hit in the middle of the Pirates' lineup. The former top prospect appeared to figure it out last season (catchers often take longer), so Bart has top-five fantasy catcher upside. He's going undrafted in 98% of Yahoo leagues. Pivetta has the fifth-best K-BB% since 2023, so he looks like a top 40 fantasy SP after his dramatic change in scenery. Petco Park has actually boosted homers (+4%) over the last three seasons, but it remains a tough place to hit overall. Pivetta's propensity to give up home runs should remain an issue with his move from Fenway Park (-2%); he allowed 20 of his 28 homers on the road last year. But Pivetta moves from the second-best hitter's park to the third-best pitcher's park according to Park Factors, so he's an SP to target. Harrison was a fantasy disappointment as a rookie, but there were encouraging signs. His K-BB% (18.5) after the All-Star break would've ranked top 20 on the season. He also admitted to wearing down during his first full year in the majors, and his ERA jumped from 4.00 to 4.54 over his final two starts. Harrison possessed dramatically higher strikeout rates throughout the minors, and his velocity is reportedly back up this spring after correcting issues with last year's delivery caused by injuries. He'll benefit greatly from throwing to baseball's best framing catcher and in one of MLB's most extreme pitcher's parks. Harrison is a real sleeper. Crawford was a bust last year while suffering through an injury-riddled campaign, but he's just one season removed from posting the second-highest wRC+ (136) among all qualified shortstops. He also added 19 homers and 94 runs scored over 145 games played in 2023. A possible lower spot in Seattle's lineup and the extremely pitcher-friendly Safeco Field are hurdles, but Crawford is free at drafts tables for those searching for SS help. He was legitimately one of baseball's best hitters in 2023 and could easily bounce back in 2025. Walker is a former top prospect who flopped in 2024, but he clubbed five homers in September. Walker worked all offseason with St. Louis' new hitting coach trying to rediscover his swing. Walker will get every opportunity with the Cardinals this season, and OOPSY projects .264-70-19-72-8 over just 131 games (with a 113 wRC+). Walker has a low floor, but he could also end up drafted 10 rounds higher in 2026. Lowe has dealt with numerous injuries since going 39-97-99-7 in 2021, but he's continued to hit well. Missed playing time has hurt his counting stats, also lowering his ADP. OOPSY projects Lowe to slug the most homers (26) and have the highest wRC+ (131) among all second basemen this season, and that's factoring in him missing nearly 40 games. Lowe is slated to bat second in Tampa Bay's lineup, sandwiched between OBP-machine Yandy Díaz and breakout candidate Junior Caminero. Moreover, Lowe no longer plays half his games in baseball's second-best pitcher's park against lefties. Lowe's slugging% dropped 89 points at home last season, and the Rays will be playing in Steinbrenner Field in 2025 (due to hurricane damage to Tropicana Field). It's the spring training home to the Yankees, and the field's dimensions mimic Yankee Stadium. Tropicana Field has decreased HR for LHB by 12% over the last three seasons, while Yankee Stadium has increased them by 19% over that span. An improved batter's eye as well as climate could also be boosts for Lowe. Lowe is an absolute steal with an ADP outside 210. Rocker is no guarantee to open the season in Texas' rotation, and he'll have some sort of innings limit, but he's a sleeper to target in fantasy drafts. Rocker flat-out dominated at Vanderbilt, and he continued to last season after making a quicker than expected return from Tommy John surgery. Rocker recorded a 1.96 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP with a 55:5 K:BB ratio over 36.2 innings across the minors before posting a 25.5 K% over three starts with the Rangers to end the year. And his arm should be healthier in 2025. Rocker is an elite prospect whom THE BAT projects to post a 1.15 WHIP this season. Even if he requires some patience, Rocker will be well worth his ADP. Giménez was one of 17 players to reach 30 steals last year, but he sports a 207.9 ADP in Yahoo drafts. He's coming off a down year at the plate, but Giménez has a career 103 wRC+ and is still just 26 years old. His elite defense will keep him regularly in the Blue Jays' likely improved lineup. Giménez's K% has dropped three straight seasons, and his Sprint Speed is in the 89th percentile. Moreover, Giménez should also benefit from leaving Cleveland, as he's hit better on the road than at Progressive Field throughout his career; his OPS (.588) was 100 points lower at home last season (when many of his teammates had massive splits the other way). Giménez is an affordable way to draft a 15/30 player. Lowe was traded to Washington during the offseason, where he's slated to bat cleanup. Nationals Park has been the fourth-best hitter's park for lefties over the last three seasons, when it's decreased strikeouts an MLB-high 18%. Lowe clubbed 27 homers with a 143 wRC+ two seasons ago, and he owned a top-35 wRC+ (121) last year. Lowe can help in batting average, and he'll rack up RBI hitting behind James Wood. Lowe's a solid sleeper.
Yahoo
27-02-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
MLB Park Factors: Pitcher's parks that will affect your fantasy baseball teams in 2025
Park Factors can dramatically influence a player's fantasy baseball value. Left-handed batters have seen a 42% increase in home runs when hitting in Cincinnati over the last three seasons, but they've experienced a 23% decrease in San Francisco. Parks can also affect strikeouts and walks — not just power. And many other factors outside of just dimensions go into whether a venue benefits hitters or pitchers, including mound height, climate, wind and even umpire accuracy due to visibility. Getting ahead of changes for 2025 — whether they be in park structure or players changing teams — will help win your fantasy league. We'll now examine the best pitching parks for the season. Most stats are courtesy of Savant, using a three-year sample. The following parks are listed with the most extreme at the top, with +/- % being the difference compared to league average: Seattle was baseball's most extreme park last season, as T-Mobile decreased run scoring (-21%) as much as Coors Field increased it. Visibility looks like one issue, as no park boosts Whiff Rate more. Temperature and wind are also among many contributing factors to Seattle being an extreme pitcher's park. Andrés Muñoz had the third-biggest home/road split of any pitcher since World War II last season. Here are Seattle's starting pitchers' eye-opening home/road splits from last year Logan Gilbert (2.49 vs. 3.94) Luis Castillo (3.15 vs. 4.25) George Kirby (3.06 vs. 3.89) Bryce Miller (1.96 vs. 4.07!) Bryan Woo (2.47 vs. 3.29) Mariners' pitchers will continue to get a huge boost from their home park, but it's a hurdle for Julio Rodríguez. Tropicana Field has also decreased walks by 5% and increased strikeouts by 8% over the last three seasons, so the Rays' move to a new home with Yankee Stadium's dimensions will have major fantasy ramifications. Petco Park has actually boosted homers (+4%) over the last three seasons, but it remains a tough place to hit overall. Nick Pivetta's propensity to give up home runs should remain an issue with his move from Fenway Park (-2%); Pivetta allowed 20 of his 28 homers on the road last year. Still, Pivetta moves from the second-best hitter's park to the third-best pitcher's park according to Park Factors. Pivetta has the fifth-best K-BB% since 2023, so he looks like a top-40 fantasy SP after his dramatic change in scenery. Cleveland suddenly became incredibly HR-friendly for left-handed batters last year after Progressive Field removed some shipping containers and created a 'wind tunnel.' Progressive Field had suppressed HR for LHB by 15% over 2022-23, but it boosted them by 16% last season. Progressive Field had decreased HR (both sides of the plate) an MLB-high 23% over 2022-23, but it was more favorable for homers than Coors Field in 2024. It's best to use three-year samples in Park Factors, but the physical changes could continue to lead to a much different hitting environment in Cleveland. San Francisco remains an extreme pitcher's park even after moving in its outfield fences in 2020. That's likely because climate is the biggest culprit, as Oracle Park is cold and filled with dense air right next to the ocean. Balls simply don't travel as far there (h/t Barry Bonds the GOAT). Willy Adames gets a downgrade moving to the Giants. Milwaukee has increased HR for RHB by 11% over the last three seasons, whereas San Francisco has decreased them by 21%. Graphics may show all of Adames' 150 career home runs theoretically leaving Oracle Park, but the main issue in San Francisco is air density, not park dimensions. Those fly balls simply won't travel as far in the Bay Area. The Giants haven't had a 30-homer hitter since 2004 for a reason; every other team has at least one since 2019. Adames also never had more than eight steals in a season before last year, and he now joins a San Francisco organization that was the least likely to attempt a stolen base last season. Michael Conforto gets a major fantasy boost leaving the Giants. San Francisco has been a bottom-three park for left-handed power (-23%) over the last three seasons, but Dodger Stadium has been the sixth-best (+16%). Kyle Tucker might lose a few homers with his move from Houston to Chicago. Minute Maid Park has boosted HR for LHB by 10% over the last three seasons, but Wrigley Field has suppressed them by 10%. But it's only a slight downgrade overall, and the Cubs ran more than the Astros last season. Still, Tucker will be dealing with the windiest conditions in baseball now. Meanwhile, pull-happy Isaac Paredes should see a bump moving from Wrigley Field (and Tropicana) to Houston's short left-field porch. Paredes had twice as many expected homers (26) at Minute Maid Park last season compared to Wrigley Field (13).
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
MLB Park Factors that will affect your fantasy baseball pitchers in 2025
Park Factors can dramatically influence a player's fantasy baseball value. Left-handed batters have seen a 42% increase in home runs when hitting in Cincinnati over the last three seasons, but they've experienced a 23% decrease in San Francisco. Parks can also affect strikeouts and walks — not just power. And many other factors outside of just dimensions go into whether a venue benefits hitters or pitchers, including mound height, climate, wind and even umpire accuracy due to visibility. Getting ahead of changes for 2025 — whether they be in park structure or players changing teams — will help win your fantasy league. We'll now examine the best pitching parks for the season. Go here for a full breakdown of the best hitters parks. Most stats are courtesy of Savant, using a three-year sample. The following parks are listed with the most extreme at the top, with +/- % being the difference compared to league average: Seattle was baseball's most extreme park last season, as T-Mobile decreased run scoring (-21%) as much as Coors Field increased it. Visibility looks like one issue, as no park boosts Whiff Rate more. Temperature and wind are also among many contributing factors to Seattle being an extreme pitcher's park. Andrés Muñoz had the third-biggest home/road split of any pitcher since World War II last season. Here are Seattle's starting pitchers' eye-opening home/road splits from last year Logan Gilbert (2.49 vs. 3.94) Luis Castillo (3.15 vs. 4.25) George Kirby (3.06 vs. 3.89) Bryce Miller (1.96 vs. 4.07!) Bryan Woo (2.47 vs. 3.29) Mariners' pitchers will continue to get a huge boost from their home park, but it's a hurdle for Julio Rodríguez. Tropicana Field has also decreased walks by 5% and increased strikeouts by 8% over the last three seasons, so the Rays' move to a new home with Yankee Stadium's dimensions will have major fantasy ramifications. Petco Park has actually boosted homers (+4%) over the last three seasons, but it remains a tough place to hit overall. Nick Pivetta's propensity to give up home runs should remain an issue with his move from Fenway Park (-2%); Pivetta allowed 20 of his 28 homers on the road last year. Still, Pivetta moves from the second-best hitter's park to the third-best pitcher's park according to Park Factors. Pivetta has the fifth-best K-BB% since 2023, so he looks like a top-40 fantasy SP after his dramatic change in scenery. Cleveland suddenly became incredibly HR-friendly for left-handed batters last year after Progressive Field removed some shipping containers and created a 'wind tunnel.' Progressive Field had suppressed HR for LHB by 15% over 2022-23, but it boosted them by 16% last season. Progressive Field had decreased HR (both sides of the plate) an MLB-high 23% over 2022-23, but it was more favorable for homers than Coors Field in 2024. It's best to use three-year samples in Park Factors, but the physical changes could continue to lead to a much different hitting environment in Cleveland. San Francisco remains an extreme pitcher's park even after moving in its outfield fences in 2020. That's likely because climate is the biggest culprit, as Oracle Park is cold and filled with dense air right next to the ocean. Balls simply don't travel as far there (h/t Barry Bonds the GOAT). Willy Adames gets a downgrade moving to the Giants. Milwaukee has increased HR for RHB by 11% over the last three seasons, whereas San Francisco has decreased them by 21%. Graphics may show all of Adames' 150 career home runs theoretically leaving Oracle Park, but the main issue in San Francisco is air density, not park dimensions. Those fly balls simply won't travel as far in the Bay Area. The Giants haven't had a 30-homer hitter since 2004 for a reason; every other team has at least one since 2019. Adames also never had more than eight steals in a season before last year, and he now joins a San Francisco organization that was the least likely to attempt a stolen base last season. Michael Conforto gets a major fantasy boost leaving the Giants. San Francisco has been a bottom-three park for left-handed power (-23%) over the last three seasons, but Dodger Stadium has been the sixth-best (+16%). Kyle Tucker might lose a few homers with his move from Houston to Chicago. Minute Maid Park has boosted HR for LHB by 10% over the last three seasons, but Wrigley Field has suppressed them by 10%. But it's only a slight downgrade overall, and the Cubs ran more than the Astros last season. Still, Tucker will be dealing with the windiest conditions in baseball now. Meanwhile, pull-happy Isaac Paredes should see a bump moving from Wrigley Field (and Tropicana) to Houston's short left-field porch. Paredes had twice as many expected homers (26) at Minute Maid Park last season compared to Wrigley Field (13).
