Latest news with #Patman
Otago Daily Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
Global Insight: US headed for authoritarian rule?
The next couple of days could reveal whether the United States is headed for authoritarian rule under President Donald Trump. Across the United States, hundreds of ''No Kings Day'' protests are planned in response to Saturday's US Army 250th anniversary military parade, in Washington DC, which also coincides with the 79th birthday of the increasingly autocratic US commander-in-chief. International relations specialist Prof Robert Patman says the fact Trump has already mobilised 4000 National Guards and 700 Marines in response to unrest over his crackdown on undocumented migrants in Los Angeles, and has promised a tough response to any parade-day protests, makes it a critical moment in America's political evolution. ''It's a fork-in-the-road moment for the United States,'' Prof Patman tells Global Insight. ''I don't think one should underestimate his ambitions to concentrate ever-greater power.'' Prof Patman says Trump's view of the world is starkly different to New Zealand's. ''He believes in a world where great powers run the world . . . a world which reflects America's interests above all.'' Liberal democracies have not responded quickly enough to ''disturbing trends . . . down the autocratic road'' since Trump's re-election late last year, he says. ''We are seeing domestic policies that mirror, to some extent, authoritarian trends, both in the domestic sphere and also in the foreign policy sphere. So, yes, I think we should be concerned. Police and members of the California National Guard stand next to demonstrators during a protest in downtown Los Angeles against federal immigration sweeps. Photo: Reuters ''Let's hope cooler heads prevail at the weekend on both sides of the argument.'' On this Global Insight episode, Prof Patman also outlines arguments about the validity of Trump's mobilisation of National Guards and Marines in Los Angeles, details the President's slide towards autocracy, and discusses factors contributing to US citizen concerns about Saturday's $90 million military parade.
Otago Daily Times
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
Global Insight: Stiff sanctions needed to stop Gaza deaths
Stiff sanctions will be needed before Israel stops its deadly military campaign in Gaza, a downbeat international relations specialist says. After an 11-week blockade, some aid is now being allowed into Gaza but Israel's military offensive to take total control of the Palestinian territory continues. University of Otago's Prof Robert Patman believes the only realistic lever likely to stop the death toll climbing above 55,000 will be international sanctions on Israel. ''To put it bluntly, what would change his [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's] mind is if the cost of his current trajectory of policy began to outweigh what he saw as the benefits of it,'' Prof Patman tells Global Insight. ''Until there is more concerted international pressure, and it might be sanctions... I don't think we're going to see a change.'' It is 19 months since a Hamas attack on Israel killed 1200 people and resulted in a further 251 people being taken hostage. The Israeli government response has been an ongoing assault on Gaza, briefly relieved by a two-month ceasefire early this year but followed by an 11-week humanitarian blockade and renewed attacks. Hungry Palestinians wait to receive meals distributed by a charity organisation in Jabalia Refugee Camp, Gaza City. The goal, Netanyahu says, is ''total victory'' against Hamas. Prof Patman says there is considerable criticism of Netanyahu's approach within Israel. But so far, the international response has been ''pretty weak''. With a few exceptions, most liberal democracies have failed to live up to their values and ideals about the international rule of law. ''So, it's difficult to be optimistic. ''Those who actually disagree with Mr Netanyahu's approach... are still not doing much to back up their talk.'' In this episode of Global Insight, Prof Patman also details Mr Netanyahu's illegal land-grab goals, the complicity of countries providing weapons to Israel, the toll on the civilian population of Gaza and the failure of the United Nations Security Council to bring about a ceasefire.
NZ Herald
05-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Why Trump 2.0‘s first 100 days in office are drawing global concern
The previous low for a US President at or near 100 days in office in polls dating back to 1945 was Trump at 42% in 2017. University of Otago professor of international relations Robert Patman told The Front Page it's been 'a rocky ride' and 'chaotic and shambolic' – and that's not really surprising. 'Trump has put so much emphasis with his senior appointments on loyalty rather than competence. 'There's this perception that some people like Elon Musk and his team of youngish software engineers who are overseeing taking a chainsaw to the public service – they're not particularly competent or experienced in the running of governance,' he said. More than 120,000 federal workers have been fired in an attempt to cut 'at least $2 trillion'. This target has since halved, and last month Musk spoke about savings of about $150 billion. 'We've seen important facets of American soft power, like US Aid disestablished, with the loss of 10,000 jobs. That's going to have a long-term effect on how the world perceives America to some degree,' Patman said. " Trump and his supporters seem to have got it in their heads that the American economy was in an appalling state, when in fact it was the best economy in the world by every objective or impartial economic measure," Patman said. Trump's handling of international relations has also caught the ire of some foreign leaders, especially after his tariff announcement affected global markets. Just yesterday, Trump announced a '100% tariff' on all movies not made in the United States, which has sparked confusion here and internationally over a lack of detail and how it would be implemented. Patman said his back-and-forth on the Ukraine-Russia conflict is a danger not just for the US, but for New Zealand too. 'The outcome of the conflict is crucial and has big implications for the Indo-Pacific. Two of the biggest backers of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are China and India. 'Here we have the most powerful country in the world led by Trump, who sees himself as a strong leader, and what does he do? He cosies up to the aggressor that has illegally invaded a liberal democracy and sides with the aggressor against the victim of aggression. 'Through Chinese non-sentimental eyes, that looks like weakness. Yes, he has added belatedly some criticisms of Putin, but the peace settlement deal that he's pushing is basically solving all of Putin's problems – it could've been written in the Kremlin. " He's upended 80 years of American foreign policy. He's effectively dismantling what's called the rules-based international order, which most liberal democracies, including our own, depend on. 'But, Trump's vision of international relations is very different from New Zealand's. He sees the world in top-down terms, a world that's run by great powers with America, the greatest power of all, sitting at the top table and negotiating deals with the likes of Putin and China. 'I think New Zealand will have to speak out at some point because what America is doing in its foreign policy is actually directly undermining our national interests. New Zealand, like many small and middle powers, needs rules. It needs institutions because they provide a level playing field for small countries to operate in,' he said. The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
Otago Daily Times
01-05-2025
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Global Insight: Trump causing tension for NZ govt
Donald Trump's aggressive protectionism could threaten the unity of New Zealand's coalition government, warns Prof Robert Patman. The University of Otago international relations specialist says divergent opinions about the United States president's global tariffs are already causing tension between New Zealand's governing parties. That friction might be exacerbated by the coalition parties' different long-term goals, he says. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters at Parliament. File photo: RNZ "They may well have an interest in papering this over. But I don't think Mr Luxon is going to back down on this," Prof Patman predicts. Recently, different views held by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, of the National Party, and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, of New Zealand First, were aired publicly when the PM described Trump's tariffs as unleashing a "trade war" and Peters then criticised such language as "hysterical". The issue is unlikely to go away, and could in fact get worse, because the smaller coalition parties — NZ First and Act Party — are looking to attract a narrower group of voters than centre-right National. "Their major concern is to get over 5% [of voters]. Whereas, as a major party, National, backed by the farming community, which depends on free trade, will be expecting their leader to do everything possible to preserve the free trade system," Prof Patman says. "[Luxon] will do everything possible . . . to make sure New Zealand's national interests are not disadvantaged by this new aggressive protectionism being pursued by Mr Trump." In today's episode of Global Insight, Prof Patman also discusses the tough stance Canada, under newly elected PM Mark Carney, is likely to take with Trump; signs of a growing international push against Trump's war on the global rules-based order; and the role China is likely to play.
