02-06-2025
Rain and thunderstorms likely in Tampa Bay this week. What to know.
The first week of June in the Tampa Bay area is shaping up to be gray and dreary, though it will give us a nice dose of rain to help quench a drought.
Over the weekend, a late season cold front stalled south of Tampa Bay, said Paul Close, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Tampa Bay office. As of Monday, showers and thunderstorms were forming along the halted boundary. Over the next few days, the boundary is likely to dissipate, but a second system nearby will keep rain chances high through the work week.
The weather service said much of Florida's west coast, including Tampa Bay, had a low chance of severe weather Monday, but lightning and locally heavy rain is possible. The minor threat of severe weather will continue through Wednesday, according to the weather service's Storm Prediction Center.
Rainfall amounts south of Interstate 4 on Monday are likely to be up to a half inch, according to the weather service. However, strong pockets of showers and thunderstorms could drop far more rain, even up to 4 inches, according to the weather service.
Early Monday, many of the showers were concentrated south of Tampa Bay, where areas like Venice had already received more than 2 inches, Close said.
Just before noon, storms began to roll into Tampa Bay. Portions of Tampa were under a severe thunderstorm warning. A gust of more than 30 mph was measured at Tampa Executive Airport.
An outlook from the weather service anticipates parts of Tampa Bay will see up to an inch of rain over the next two days.
The weather service is expecting at least a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Friday in Tampa. On Wednesday, rain chances peak at 90%.
'By late in the week, it'll be back to more typical, more mainly afternoon, evening stuff,' Close said. 'But through mid-week, at least, there could be stuff, especially near the coast, almost any time.'
Close said while these all-day storms don't fit the criteria of typical rainy season weather, the area has begun its transition to the wet season.
'Usually you don't get fronts this far south,' Close said. 'It's early June now, this is about the time they stop.'
The rainy season, when Tampa Bay receives the majority of its rain, officially began in southwest Florida on May 15 and on May 25 in west central Florida. The season runs until around mid-October.
The weather service said the wet season can begin abruptly or take weeks to take hold. Several meteorological ingredients need to come together for the area's typical thunderstorms to pop up, like the location of a high pressure and increased dew points.
As of late May, the Tampa Bay area was under a severe drought, (D2 on a scale that runs from D0 to D4) according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. More southern areas of the Florida's west coast were under an extreme drought (D3).
A U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released on May 31, looking forward to June 1 through August 31, shows drought relief is likely in Tampa Bay.
'We need the rain, but it's a slow transition,' Close said.
