Latest news with #PaulTudorJones
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Paul Tudor Jones ‘smart money' is written all over Bitcoin's bull run
Bitcoin's rapid surge past $109,000 this week shows telltale signs of "smart money" whale behaviour—precisely what hedge-fund mogul Paul Tudor Jones describes as early-mover signalling at market turning points. Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and the trader who infamously "called" the 1987 crash, argues that "smart money" (i.e., the significant, widely informed capital supplied by institutions and whales) serves to market turning points. On-chain data indicates transaction sizes above $1 million spiked to multi-month highs in mid-May, several days before the surge. This uptick in whale activity mirrors past situations where institutional capitulation quietly laid the groundwork for a profound rally. The Playbook was spotlighted in August–September 2020 after MicroStrategy committed $425 million to Bitcoin. Square and Tesla soon followed, sparking a bull run from around $10,000 to over $60,000 by April 2021. However, as Coinbase listed on the Nasdaq in April, on-chain trackers noticed a 15% fall in wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC—the first profit-taking stage that would precede a 55% price crash by mid-2022. Data from Chainalysis states that during Bitcoin's 2018 bear market, big holders were net buyers by the time Bagholders capitulated, which in turn helped stabilize the prices. Something similar happened in November 2022: during five short minutes, the collapse of FTX threw Bitcoin under $16,000, the "super whales" (people who hold 10,000+ BTC) were buying more, gambling on a rebound that took place in 2023. Jones, who famously allocated to Bitcoin in 2020, calling it the ''fastest horse'' in a world full of monetary stimulus, believes that moving with deep pockets provides the clearest macro signal. "The best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse. If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin." Given Bitcoin's history, he has some grounds to believe that every major rally has seen big institutions load up on Bitcoin, while every major top has seen silent distribution. Paul Tudor Jones 'smart money' is written all over Bitcoin's bull run first appeared on TheStreet on May 26, 2025
Business Times
16-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Protecting capital in a market downturn
ONE of the most common mistakes made by retail investors is the failure to protect their capital in a market downturn. They tend to hold on to their stocks in a market downturn, thinking that it is just a correction and hence that the market will rebound. Many financial advisers have also advised investors to stay invested during a market slump as volatility is usually just noise. They point out that investors tend to sell out during market lows and fail to get back to the market just when it recovers. Retail investors also tend to buy on dips, especially blue chips, as their stock prices have taken a tumble in a market downturn. Investors reckon that the so-called fundamentals remain intact and stock valuation has since become cheaper. It is the time for bargain hunting as there is potentially a huge upside. Cheap stock valuation is an important consideration in investment decisions. However, it can also be a value trap. It won't help investors much on market timing such as when to buy and sell stocks. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Admittedly, it is unclear though if an initial market downturn is just a temporary selloff or the start of a prolonged and severe bear market. More often than not, investors only recognise it belatedly when a downturn turns out to be a bear market. By then, it would be too late as they get caught in deep losses. In my opinion, investors need to know when to be on the offensive and when to be defensive. One way of doing so is by using the 'trend following' approach. Great investors or traders such as Paul Tudor Jones and George Soros are trend followers. They use the 'trend following' approach to profit from a rising market and to protect their capital in a falling one. Jones has, for instance, advocated a 200-day moving average as a trend following indicator. The American hedge fund billionaire was interviewed by motivational speaker and coach Tony Robbins, for his book, Money: Master the Game (2014), where Jones shared his investing strategies. Said Jones in the book: 'I teach an undergrad class at the University of Virginia, and I tell my students: 'I'm going to save you from going to business school. Here, you're getting a hundred-grand class, and I'm going to give it to you in two thoughts, okay? You don't need to go to business school; you've only got to remember two things. The first is, you always want to be with whatever the predominant trend is.'' Jones continued: 'My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices. I've seen too many things go to zero – stocks and commodities. The whole trick of investing is: How do I keep from losing everything? If you use the 200-day moving average rule, then you get out. You play defence, and you get out.' He then offered a set of principles to guide retail investors : 'I get very nervous about the retail investors, the average investor, because it's really, really hard. If this was easy, if there was one formula, one way to do it, we'd all be zillionaires. One principle for sure would be to get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average. Investing with five-to-one focus (asymmetric risk/reward) and discipline would be another.' For those who are inclined towards numbers, here are the hard figures on 200-day moving averages. According to Ritholtz Capital Management, the average one-year return is 10.6 per cent when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average, and 6.9 per cent when it is below its 200-day moving average, based on data from 1990 to 2022. As for market volatility, the annualised standard deviation for the S&P 500 is 12.6 per cent when the S&P 500 index is above the 200-day moving average, and 24.5 per cent when it is below that benchmark. Standard deviation here measures how much a set of data deviates from the standard or average. In short, historical evidence shows that a market which is above its 200-day moving average tends to see higher returns and lower volatility, and a market that is below its 200-day moving average tends to see lower returns and higher volatility. Experts and analysts like to point out, however, that if investors miss the 10 best days in stocks, their returns can be severely affected. Thus, market timing, such as the 'trend following' approach with 200-day moving averages, will not work well. Studies, however, show that a majority of both best and worst days happen when the market is below the 200-day moving average. As such, returns from 'trend following' can be superior to returns from buy-and-hold in the long term as investors tend to miss both the ten best and worst days. What about some false signals? Sometimes, a stock or index falls below its 200-day moving but a few days later, it then rises above its 200-day moving average. Investors then find themselves caught in whipsaws, which in turn would affect their stock performance. Here are some thoughts on ways to mitigate whipsaws. One way is to use a monthly closing price. If by the end of the month, a stock's or index's monthly closing price is still below its 10-month moving average, investors should probably be the defensive. Though a 10-month moving average helps to cancel out noise if compared to a 200-day moving average, it is less sensitive in a volatile market. Another way is based on the notion that an index – say, Nasdaq 100 or NDX Index – tends to deliver subpar returns after a phenomenal run. The NDX Index was above its 200-day moving average from Mar 13, 2023, to Mar 5, 2025 – a total of 497 trading days. This is the second-longest stretch of time above the moving average since 1990. The return for the current stretch is about 70 per cent – the third-highest return since 1990. The best return was 179 per cent from October 1998 to May 2000, and the second-best was 83 per cent from April 2020 to January 2022. All ended badly subsequently. How will the current stretch turn out? It should be noted that 'trend following' approach does not purport to help investors sell at the market top or buy at the market bottom. This is because when an uptrend or a downtrend is confirmed, it could already be quite lagging. As a result, investors might miss some significant gains at the major turning points. George Soros has come up with some tricks to tackle this challenge. As he put it: 'Most of the time I am a trend follower, but all the time I am aware that I am a member of the herd, and I am on the lookout for inflection points… I watch out for tell-tale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it.' The writer is a private investor. He was previously a researcher at an international business school in Europe and an Asia-Pacific director at multinational corporations.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Paul Tudor Jones Makes Bold Move with iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) recently submitted the 13F filing for the first quarter of 2025, providing insights into his investment moves during this period. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) II, founder and chief investment officer of Boston-based Tudor Investment Group, is one of the pioneers of the modern-day hedge fund industry. Jones began his career in the cotton pits before forming the firm in 1980. The guru was eager to create a firm differentiated by a steadfast dedication to client objectives and guided by strong ethics and values. While Tudor Investment is best known for its rich history in discretionary macro trading, the firm also has significant experience and capabilities in model-driven and systematic investment approaches. Management believes that firms must continually innovate in order to compete in rapidly evolving markets and thus, commits significant resources to research and development across a variety of strategies in order to expand the firm's edge. Ultimately, Tudor seeks to generate consistent returns for both client and proprietary capital through the use of best-in-class research, trading, and investment techniques. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Signs with NTRA. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) added a total of 519 stocks, among them: The most significant addition was Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc (ITCI), with 621,815 shares, accounting for 0.27% of the portfolio and a total value of $82.03 million. The second largest addition to the portfolio was SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), consisting of 1,261,407 shares, representing approximately 0.24% of the portfolio, with a total value of $71.71 million. The third largest addition was Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM), with 199,331 shares, accounting for 0.18% of the portfolio and a total value of $52.74 million. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) also increased stakes in a total of 509 stocks, among them: The most notable increase was iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), with an additional 3,051,619 shares, bringing the total to 3,736,913 shares. This adjustment represents a significant 445.3% increase in share count, a 2.03% impact on the current portfolio, and a total value of $745.48 million. The second largest increase was INVESCO QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), with an additional 228,753 shares, bringing the total to 248,961. This adjustment represents a significant 1,131.99% increase in share count, with a total value of $116.74 million. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) completely exited 521 holdings in the first quarter of 2025, as detailed below: Infinera Corp (INFN): Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) sold all 15,915,186 shares, resulting in a -0.41% impact on the portfolio. CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS): Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) liquidated all 977,703 shares, causing a -0.17% impact on the portfolio. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) also reduced positions in 403 stocks. The most significant changes include: Reduced ISHARES BITCOIN TR (NASDAQ:IBIT) by 3,303,026 shares, resulting in a -41.04% decrease in shares and a -0.67% impact on the portfolio. The stock traded at an average price of $52.94 during the quarter and has returned 6.04% over the past 3 months and 10.59% year-to-date. Reduced iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) by 252,989 shares, resulting in a -96.74% reduction in shares and a -0.57% impact on the portfolio. The stock traded at an average price of $590.51 during the quarter and has returned -2.88% over the past 3 months and 1.08% year-to-date. At the first quarter of 2025, Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio)'s portfolio included 2,971 stocks, with top holdings including 2.48% in iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), 0.74% in ISHARES BITCOIN TR (NASDAQ:IBIT), 0.53% in Kellanova (NYSE:K), 0.5% in Frontier Communications Parent Inc (NASDAQ:FYBR), and 0.45% in Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (NYSE:SPR). The holdings are mainly concentrated in all 11 industries: Technology, Financial Services, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Energy, Real Estate, Utilities, and Basic Materials. This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Paul Tudor Jones Makes Bold Move with iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) recently submitted the 13F filing for the first quarter of 2025, providing insights into his investment moves during this period. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) II, founder and chief investment officer of Boston-based Tudor Investment Group, is one of the pioneers of the modern-day hedge fund industry. Jones began his career in the cotton pits before forming the firm in 1980. The guru was eager to create a firm differentiated by a steadfast dedication to client objectives and guided by strong ethics and values. While Tudor Investment is best known for its rich history in discretionary macro trading, the firm also has significant experience and capabilities in model-driven and systematic investment approaches. Management believes that firms must continually innovate in order to compete in rapidly evolving markets and thus, commits significant resources to research and development across a variety of strategies in order to expand the firm's edge. Ultimately, Tudor seeks to generate consistent returns for both client and proprietary capital through the use of best-in-class research, trading, and investment techniques. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Signs with NTRA. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) added a total of 519 stocks, among them: The most significant addition was Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc (ITCI), with 621,815 shares, accounting for 0.27% of the portfolio and a total value of $82.03 million. The second largest addition to the portfolio was SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), consisting of 1,261,407 shares, representing approximately 0.24% of the portfolio, with a total value of $71.71 million. The third largest addition was Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM), with 199,331 shares, accounting for 0.18% of the portfolio and a total value of $52.74 million. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) also increased stakes in a total of 509 stocks, among them: The most notable increase was iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), with an additional 3,051,619 shares, bringing the total to 3,736,913 shares. This adjustment represents a significant 445.3% increase in share count, a 2.03% impact on the current portfolio, and a total value of $745.48 million. The second largest increase was INVESCO QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), with an additional 228,753 shares, bringing the total to 248,961. This adjustment represents a significant 1,131.99% increase in share count, with a total value of $116.74 million. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) completely exited 521 holdings in the first quarter of 2025, as detailed below: Infinera Corp (INFN): Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) sold all 15,915,186 shares, resulting in a -0.41% impact on the portfolio. CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS): Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) liquidated all 977,703 shares, causing a -0.17% impact on the portfolio. Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) also reduced positions in 403 stocks. The most significant changes include: Reduced ISHARES BITCOIN TR (NASDAQ:IBIT) by 3,303,026 shares, resulting in a -41.04% decrease in shares and a -0.67% impact on the portfolio. The stock traded at an average price of $52.94 during the quarter and has returned 6.04% over the past 3 months and 10.59% year-to-date. Reduced iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) by 252,989 shares, resulting in a -96.74% reduction in shares and a -0.57% impact on the portfolio. The stock traded at an average price of $590.51 during the quarter and has returned -2.88% over the past 3 months and 1.08% year-to-date. At the first quarter of 2025, Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio)'s portfolio included 2,971 stocks, with top holdings including 2.48% in iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), 0.74% in ISHARES BITCOIN TR (NASDAQ:IBIT), 0.53% in Kellanova (NYSE:K), 0.5% in Frontier Communications Parent Inc (NASDAQ:FYBR), and 0.45% in Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (NYSE:SPR). The holdings are mainly concentrated in all 11 industries: Technology, Financial Services, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Energy, Real Estate, Utilities, and Basic Materials. This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
12-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Bloomberg
Wall Street's Favorite Charity Is Preparing for a Future Without Its Founder
For years, Ken Tropin would watch Paul Tudor Jones yuck it up at the Robin Hood benefit and worry what would happen when his pal was no longer leading the charge. Monday night, he'll watch knowing there's a plan for that eventuality.
