Latest news with #PauldeLeeuw
Scotsman
5 days ago
- Business
- Scotsman
North Sea sector faces Grangemouth-scale redundancies every fortnight without action
Research by Robert Gordon University found the UK risks losing tens of thousands of jobs Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... The North Sea oil and gas workforce could shrink by 400 jobs – the same number lost as a result of the closure of the Grangemouth refinery – every two weeks for the next five years unless urgent action is taken, a new report has warned. Research by Robert Gordon University (RGU) found the UK risks losing tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs by 2030. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the energy transition institute at RGU, warned the 'window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing'. An oil rig in the North Sea | PA The new report suggests a 2030 UK offshore energy workforce requirement (oil, gas and renewables) of between 125,000 and 163,000 jobs, compared to today's figure of approximately 154,000. However, the specific UK oil and gas workforce is forecast to fall from 115,000 in 2024 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s. In the lower case scenario, the North Sea oil and gas workforce could shrink by approximately 400 jobs every two weeks for the next five years. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Under the high-case scenario, workforce demand levels across the UK could hit more than 210,000, but this would require the delivery of an additional 35 GW - or close to 6 GW per year - of offshore wind and sustaining UK oil and gas activities for an extended period, similar to policies applied in Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands. The report warned the potential risks for Scotland's supply chain and workforce are substantial. If Scotland fails to capture the full range of offshore energy opportunities and the oil and gas decline continues to accelerate, the Scottish-based offshore energy workforce could decrease from approximately 75,000 in 2024 to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s. Prof de Leeuw said: 'With investment at risk and renewables projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20 per cent to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate. 'The analysis shows that there is a workforce 'goldilocks zone' between 2025 and 2030 during which the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in, so that the transferability of the offshore energy workforce is optimised. 'However, key to the effective delivery of the goldilocks zone is rapid investment in UK capabilities to deliver a fast-growing programme of green capital projects, which in turn will help to realise ambitious goals for domestic execution of these projects.' He added: 'The UK possesses all the attributes and resources to realise the ambitions set out in government strategies and forward-looking industry programmes. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'The report shows that with the right interventions at the right time, the UK can achieve its strategic energy goals and reach its net zero objectives, all while protecting and significantly enhancing workforce numbers in the offshore energy sector. 'Countries such as Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands are already successfully balancing traditional energy production with rapid expansion of renewables, a model the UK could and should emulate. 'The review recognises the constraints to accelerate the deployment of offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewable energies over the remainder of this decade. 'However, the analysis highlights that Governments can rapidly put in place policies to better manage the decline in the oil and gas sector, so that offshore energy jobs and the UK's world-class supply chain can be sustained and retained.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said the just transition was 'being put in jeopardy'. 'The independent expert advice is clear, we will see a Grangemouth scale of job losses each and every fortnight if the UK Government does not shift from its misguided position and protect the energy industry of today so that the workforce can use their skills and expertise to develop the net zero industries of tomorrow,' he said. 'The opportunities of net zero are enormous but they will not be realised if the Labour Government continues with its current fiscal regime that deters stability, confidence and investment in existing industries and we therefore lose our best people, and world-class supply chain, to nations elsewhere. 'Whether it is the impact of the energy profits levy or the failure to fund the Acorn [carbon capture] project, we run the real risk of being in a 'worst of all worlds' type scenario and that would be unforgivable. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad
Press and Journal
5 days ago
- Business
- Press and Journal
Warning 400 North Sea jobs could go every two weeks in the next five years
Up to 400 North Sea oil and gas jobs could vanish every two weeks over the next five years. That's the stark warning from a new Robert Gordon University report, which has compared it to losing the entire Grangemouth refinery workforce over and over again. It says the UK is teetering in a fragile 'goldilocks zone'- a narrow window where action now could protect and even grow energy jobs. But the window is closing fast. The study, Striking the Balance, urges the government to act now to prevent a steep decline in skilled roles. With the right investment, policies and delivery, UK offshore energy jobs could grow to 210,000 by 2023. However, without that, job numbers could fall to 125,000 – with Scotland expected to lose up to around 30,000 roles. Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of RGU's Energy Transition Institute, said action is urgently needed. 'The analysis shows that there is a workforce 'goldilocks zone' between 2025 and 2030 during which the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in, so that the transferability of the offshore energy workforce is optimised,' he said. 'Key to the effective delivery of the goldilocks zone is rapid investment in UK capabilities to deliver a fast-growing programme of green capital projects, which in turn will help to realise ambitious goals for domestic execution of these projects.' Prof de Leeuw said we need to 'follow the money' and pointed to 'massive investor uncertainty' in the negative sentiment for oil and gas in the UK and a slowdown in the wind industry. 'Where's the activity?' he asked. 'That Goldilocks zone is getting more urgent. 'There's just nowhere for the supply chain jobs to go other than overseas.' He said government intervention was needed to get confidence back in the industry. 'The UK's lack of joined up action means that the window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing,' he said. 'Countries such as Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands are already successfully balancing traditional energy production with rapid expansion of renewables, a model the UK could and should emulate. 'Analysis highlights the governments can rapidly put in place policies to better manage the decline in the oil and gas sector, so that offshore energy jobs and the UK's world-class supply chain can be sustained and retained.' Prof de Leeuw said the stakes were particularly high for Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, where one in four jobs are linked to offshore energy – through direct employment or the wider supply chain. 'With investment at risk and renewables projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders,' he said. 'The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. 'Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20% to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.'
