a day ago
A 'dangerous' July for the Shinawatras
The Hun Sen effect -- caused by a controversial private telephone call recording between Cambodia's de facto leader and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra -- has thrown Thai politics into disarray. Ms Paetongtarn is in treacherous waters as calls for her resignation grow. Her opponents are to gather today in a bid to throw her out of office.
The telephone conversation, believed to have been leaked by the Cambodian former prime minister Hun Sen, cast Ms Paetongtarn in a very bad light. Questions about her leadership, or lack thereof, are getting louder and louder, while public trust in her is rapidly eroding.
Due to her limited experience, she was not an ideal leader from the start. Although the 38-year-old prime minister is trying to fight back by switching into tough mode, public confidence in her continues to dip.
To flex her political muscles, PM Paetongtarn has instructed authorities to target call centre scams at the border town of Poipet that have for a long time harmed innocent people. The decision reportedly hit Cambodian leaders hard as it's believed that those behind the scam operation are supporters of the Hun family.
The fact is, Ms Paetongtarn could have declared a war against scammers along the Thai border long ago, but chose not to. Critics say she let family ties between her family and Hun Sen's affect the decision.
With the telephone recording controversy, it's clear that her leadership is in crisis. Pheu Thai's popularity had already nosedived after it dumped the then Move Forward Party (MFP) and chose to instead form a coalition with parties under the ex-junta's control.
Suffice it to say, July won't be summer time for Ms Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai, as they will be facing many challenges. There are quite a few scenarios that are likely to cripple Ms Paetongtarn, with slim chances of her continuing as government leader. Among them: lawfare, largely based on the Hun Sen effect, through independent agencies; a no-confidence censure pushed by friend-turned-foe Bhumjaithai, which remains uncertain as it requires consent from other opposition parties; rising calls for her to resign, which she is choosing to ignore, and calls for a house dissolution. A coup has been ruled out, at least for now.
Demonstrations against her by groups of opponents, ie, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), and even ex-red shirt leaders, who are united in this cause, may not directly result in her removal from office. But it could be fuel for lawfare against her. Ms Paetongtarn's fate hangs in the balance as petitions against her are filed with the National Anti-Corruption Commission and Constitutional Court. In particular, the Senate petitioned the charter court, as it regarded her call with Hun Sen as disrespectful to the rule of law and a breach of ethics.
The charter court is to convene on July 1 to consider the case. There is widespread speculation that the court will accept the petition. Yet, it remains to be seen if it will suspend her from duty at this stage. Most political pundits believe so.
Jaran Pakditanakul, a former charter court judge, is confident that Ms Paetongtarn has little chance of surviving politically. The clip saga speaks volumes about the conflicts of interest between the two families, and shows Ms Paetongtarn has no ability to handle national crises.
If the court accepts the petition and Ms Paetongtarn is suspended during the probe, it is likely that the government and public administration will be handled by Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, according to an analysis by Mr Jaran.
Even though the prospective charter court's action, mentioned by Mr Jaran, may be deemed contentious lawfare, it is preferable to a military coup, which would see the country regress politically.
The following is a likely scenario if the court accepts the case against Ms Paetongtarn and suspends her from duty. Mr Phumtham would become acting PM. This could happen in around 1-2 months when the court hands down a ruling. If the court does ditch Ms Paetongtarn, the House of Representatives will vote for a new PM and, under the present circumstances, Chaikasem Nitisiri -- Pheu Thai's third prime ministerial candidate -- stands a high chance of replacing her, but only if he is fit enough to take care of the country. Mr Chaikasem, 76, is reported to have health problems.
It could be said that lawfare -- considered by many as a kind of coup by independent agencies -- is the favourable option by the old guard to attack their enemies. Look at what happened to the FFP and MFP. Yet, there is a chance Ms Paetongtarn may survive the lawfare. If so, it would mean the Shinawatras have another deal with the old guard, which may be pleased with the "civilian-cum-military government" now that Pheu Thai is allowing the men in green to have a mandate in handling border issues.
At the same time, it's understandable that Pheu Thai will never accept a House dissolution as an option, as it is now in a disadvantaged position, with declining popularity as a result of its poor performance in running the country over the past two years. The party is experiencing a big headache in forming a new coalition as prospective partners are optimising their cabinet seat demands, and Pheu Thai has to accommodate them as a paper-thin majority is too risky.
All in all, July is set to be a dangerous month for both Ms Paetongtarn and Thaksin. For Thaksin, the court is expected to hand down its ruling on the 14th floor saga -- his extended hospitalisation to avoid imprisonment. Given all the circumstances, this could be a turning point for Thai politics as the Shinawatra family is politically vulnerable.
