Latest news with #PeterMcNally
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Travel industry outlook: Why United & Delta could come out on top
Airlines are dialing back expectations as macro concerns and safety incidents weigh on summer travel, with several major airlines revising and even pulling their full-year outlooks. In fact, international spending in the US is expected to decline $12.5 billion this year. Third Bridge global head of sector analysts Peter McNally joins Market Domination to break down what's ahead for major carriers and how they're adjusting capacity. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Airlines have been signaling caution with several pulling or revising their folio outlooks on macroeconomic uncertainty. International travel spending in the United States is expected to decline $12.5 billion in 2025. That's according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, adding on to demand worries. We know are these safety concerns, incidents in the past two weeks tied to air traffic control at Newark Airport has raised worries over the safety of flying. For more on what this all means for travel and major airlines, we have Third Bridge Global Head of Sector Analyst, Peter McNally here. Peter, it is good to see you as always. So start big picture, Peter, summer travel season, it's here. What's coming, Peter? What are your expectations? Well, I mean, the expectations across the board have been lowered, but they're still okay. You know, these safety issues have come up in the past and they've tended to be short-lived. Uh, I'm not really sure, you know, how long the uh, the issues in Newark are are going to go on, but United has been pretty emphatic that uh, it is safe to fly. Um, you know, that said, the the underlying demand for the industry is pretty healthy. I think airlines have been proactive in managing their capacity. Uh, so pricing just, you know, remains pretty good. Um, there's not like too many seats out there putting downward pressure at this point from from what we can see, and I think people are gearing up for a good summer. Well, talk to me about that because some of the sources I've talked to, Peter, have said the opposite. There are concerns about all of this trade war headlines hurting international travel, particularly to the United States, uh, which is obviously a potential headwind for some of these big airlines. Then you've also got the safety challenges and then if we can pull up our CPI numbers, you also have airline fairs coming down a touch. Which of those headwinds I just mentioned is the most concerning to you as we head into the summer? Well, I I think that the international travel is more impactful, let's say to a British Airways or a Lufthansa than it is for a Delta or United. Though those concerns more for Europeans coming here than it is for Americans going going to Europe where like that's 80% roughly of Delta's, you know, clients or the US traveler heading overseas. Um, and there really hasn't been a slowdown from anything we've seen out of the result on that yet. Um, but it is it is something that uh that that we're watching. Now, fairs, you know, coming off a bit, they're they're manageable, you know, at this point. Uh, I would also add that uh fuel prices coming down do offer a little margin relief for, you know, for these airlines that they they can offer a little bit of a discount um at this point, but they but they are taking some of the planned capacity out of the market.
Business Recorder
05-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil loses more than $1 a barrel as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms
NEW YORK/LONDON: Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Monday after OPEC+ decided to expedite its output hikes, causing concerns about more supply amid an uncertain demand outlook. Brent crude futures were down $1.06, or 1.7%, to $60.23 a barrel by 1:02 p.m. EDT (1702 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.11 a barrel, a drop of $1.20, or 2.02%. The contracts opened on Monday at their lowest levels since April 9. Those moves compounded losses after Brent shed 8.3% and WTI lost 7.5% last week on rising supply concerns after Saudi Arabia signaled it could cope with a prolonged lower price environment. That offset optimism on the demand side that US-China tariff talks could occur, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). The June increase by eight participants in the OPEC+ group, which includes non-OPEC member allies like Russia, will take the total combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations. 'For the producers outside of the OPEC+ group, which is now nearly 60% of global oil supply, the market share gains may have reached a peak if these new barrels are fed into the market and prices move lower,' said Peter McNally, a Third Bridge analyst. The group could fully unwind its voluntary cuts by the end of October if members do not improve compliance with their production quotas, OPEC+ sources told Reuters. OPEC+ sources have said Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to speed up the unwinding of earlier output cuts to punish fellow members Iraq and Kazakhstan for poor compliance with their production quotas. 'The production increase, instigated by Saudi Arabia, is as much about challenging US shale supply as it is to penalize members that have benefited from higher prices while flouting their production limits,' Saxo Bank's Hansen said. ING and Barclays have also lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC+ decision. Barclays reduced its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING expects Brent to average $65 this year, down from $70 previously. 'Expectations of mounting global oil inventories in the coming months given the demand deterioration expected off of the Trump tariffs is tending to accentuate bearish supply side news,' Jim Ritterbusch, of US energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. Widespread recession fears and weak refined fuel import demand are also weighing on oil prices, said David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa, adding that since mid-February the data analytics firm had noted an approximate 150 million-barrel build in global crude stocks in onshore tanks and on tankers at sea.
Business Times
05-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Oil ends at four-year lows as Opec+ accelerates output hikes
[NEW YORK] Oil fell by more than US$1 a barrel on Monday to settle at over four-year lows as an Opec+ decision to expedite its output hikes stoked fears about rising global supply at a time when the demand outlook is uncertain. Brent crude futures settled at US$60.23 a barrel, down US$1.06, or 1.7 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell US$1.16, or 2 per cent, to end at US$57.13 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled at their lowest since February 2021. Last week, Brent shed 8.3 per cent and WTI lost 7.5 per cent after Saudi Arabia signalled it could cope with a prolonged lower price environment. That offset optimism on the demand side that US-China tariff talks could occur, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. On Saturday, Opec+ agreed to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). The June increase by eight participants in the Opec+ group, which includes allies like Russia, will take the total combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd. That represents a 44 per cent unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations. 'For the producers outside of the Opec+ group, which is now nearly 60 per cent of global oil supply, the market share gains may have reached a peak if these new barrels are fed into the market and prices move lower,' said Peter McNally, a Third Bridge analyst. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The group could fully unwind its voluntary cuts by the end of October if members do not improve compliance with their production quotas, Opec+ sources told Reuters. Opec+ sources have said Saudi Arabia is pushing Opec+ to speed up the unwinding of earlier output cuts to punish fellow members Iraq and Kazakhstan for poor compliance with their production quotas. 'The production increase, instigated by Saudi Arabia, is as much about challenging US shale supply as it is to penalise members that have benefited from higher prices while flouting their production limits,' Saxo Bank's Hansen said. ING and Barclays have also lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the Opec+ decision. Barclays reduced its Brent forecast by US$4 to US$66 a barrel for 2025 and by US$2 to US$60 for 2026, while ING expects Brent to average US$65 this year, down from US$70 previously. 'Expectations of mounting global oil inventories in the coming months given the demand deterioration expected off of the Trump tariffs is tending to accentuate bearish supply-side news,' Jim Ritterbusch, of US energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. Widespread recession fears and weak refined fuel import demand are also weighing on oil prices, said David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa, adding that since mid-February the data analytics firm had noted an approximate 150 million-barrel build in global crude stocks in onshore tanks and on tankers at sea. Oil below US$50 a barrel could hurt final investment decisions for offshore projects, Girish Saligram, CEO of oilfield services company Weatherford International, said at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. 'If we see prices sustain below US$50 a barrel, I think it could create a little bit of a lull for some of the new final investment decisions,' Saligram said. REUTERS
