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Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
In Wall Street's Epic Comeback, Unsolved Market Mysteries Abound
(Bloomberg) — It was the week Wall Street got its swagger back. Stocks staged a gravity-defying rebound to wipe out all losses from April's tariff shock, Corporate America unleashed billions in pent-up bond sales and speculative assets from crypto to unprofitable tech companies surged. NYC Lost $9 Billion of Income to Miami, Palm Beach in Five Years NJ Transit Urges Commuters to Work Remotely If Union Strikes New York City Transit System Chips Away at Subway Fare Evasion NYC's MTA to Cut Costs Instead of Borrowing More to Fund Upgrades NYC's Congestion Toll Raised $159 Million in the First Quarter Yet beyond the relief rally — built on hopes that the White House will ink trade deals soon enough — the financial ecosystem is flashing warning signs for the likes of hedge funds and day traders plunging back into risk. Signals in the bond market show the Federal Reserve in a policy bind, imperiling hopes that Jerome Powell & Co. can soften the tariff blow fast. The world's reserve currency continues to lose its compass as it bucks moves in Treasury yields. And similar schisms are playing out in credit and equities as bulls defy elevated bankruptcies and falling earnings estimates. While cross-asset contradictions are a regular feature of the trading landscape, the dislocations right now are worth heeding, according to Phil Pecsok, chief investment officer of Anacapa Advisors. 'We really don't know if there's going to be tariffs, relief from tariffs, lower taxes or retaliation. So it's very hard to get the fundamental story straight,' he said. 'Nobody knows anything. We are in no man's land.' As fast as traders bailed amid President Donald Trump's tariff threats, they've stormed back, lifting US stocks in nine straight sessions, the most in two decades. Credit spreads have tightened amid a flurry of issuance while Bitcoin, which was trading as low as $77,053 three weeks ago, is again testing the six-figure mark. Behind the runup: Speculation that the worst of Trump's trade belligerence has been heard and signs that the US economy continues to hold up, with Friday data showing the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Yet in the underbelly of markets lingers skepticism that calls into question the $5 trillion equity recovery trade in less than two weeks. Measures of marketwide anxiety have eased but remain elevated. Even after falling for three weeks, Bank of America Corp.'s global financial stress indicator sits well above any level seen in the eight months prior to Trump's 'Liberation Day' warnings of April 2. A key concern is that traders are charging back into risk on the conviction that Fed easing will be imminent, even though market-based inflation expectations have shown only tentative signs of cooling. While derivatives traders pared bets for interest-rate cuts following Friday's jobs data, they still envision three reductions in 2025, up from one in February. At the same time, one-year inflation swaps in early April rose to the highest level since 2022 amid worries about the impact of tariffs on import prices. Despite a pullback, they're still more than 70 basis points higher than in January. To Henry Allen, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank AG, that's a recipe for disappointment given Powell's hawkish tone in his April speeches and the experience of 2022, when investors underestimated the Fed's resolve in extinguishing price pressures. 'Markets risk repeating a consistent error of recent years, in pricing a Fed that is much too dovish compared to what actually happens,' he wrote in a recent note. Allen also points to the uncomfortable fact that the dollar's link with fixed income continues to fray. In theory, the US currency would be expected to appreciate against the euro when 10-year Treasury yields rise relative to comparable German bonds, or vice versa. That's in part because higher-yielding assets attract money, bolstering the allure of the country's currency. Yet that relationship has remained fractured since early April. To Lawrence Creatura, a fund manager at PRSPCTV Capital LLC, the greenback's weakness is a tell-tale sign that the US is losing its clout with global trading partners, bringing flashbacks of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 that helped worsen the Great Depression. 'We are taking baby steps in that direction right now,' he said. 'We're going backwards in time and re-approaching that status where the dollar in the US is not a dependable, safe financial payment.' The big risk-on surge is also occurring at a time when key fundamentals are weakening. Economists have been slashing their growth forecasts in anticipation of a hit from the trade war, while analysts are downgrading their estimates for corporate earnings for this year and next, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In the credit market, risk premiums for high yield debt have tightened since early April, despite bankruptcy filings rising to a five-year high. Angst is also lingering in the options market. The Cboe Volatility Index, a measure of expected swings in the S&P 500, has seen its so-called spot prices stay above six-month futures contracts every session since late March. That's the longest inversion since 2020's pandemic crisis. It's a sign traders continue to worry more about here and now than risk down the road. All told, stubborn Wall Street frictions underscore the era of policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0, according to Maria Vassalou, head of the Pictet Research Institute. 'Since effectively the end of the Cold War, we had an environment of free trade, globalization and peace. And all these things are changing now,' she said. 'We are moving into a different equilibrium, which is yet to be defined.' 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Yahoo
12-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Anacapa Advisors' Quantum Fund Marks Five Years in the Market
Quantum is a long-biased, scalable hedge fund launched in 2020 designed to outperform the Nasdaq 100 PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif., March 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Anacapa Advisors, a market directional investment firm with two core funds, celebrates five full years of its Quantum fund: a long equity focused, extremely liquid, and adaptable hedge fund built to outperform the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) across a diverse range of market conditions. Quantum was the second fund launched by Anacapa Advisors, following the Alpha fund, which was launched in 2018. Quantum employs a three-part strategy to boost its scalability: replicating the Nasdaq 100 Index, utilizing a proprietary options overlay, and hedging to manage risk. Created in January 2020, Quantum now celebrates five years of live track record, ranking second in five-year performance among all US equity hedge funds (1,641 funds) as determined by Nasdaq eVestment in January 2025. Quantum also boasts an inception-to-date annualized return of 26.6%, outperforming the Nasdaq-100's 18.6% annualized return by 8% per annum, net of fees. Anacapa Advisors concluded last year with strong performances as well; in 2024, Anacapa Quantum posted a +22.17% return for the year, and its other fund, Anacapa Alpha achieved a +19.85% return. The firm was founded by investment industry veteran Phil Pecsok in 2018 and was partially designed in response to a famous bet offered by Warren Buffet: that no active manager could beat the markets over a ten-year period. Each has consistently generated outsized returns since inception and are both listed in the top 1% among all equity funds reporting on Bloomberg. "Reaching the five-year mark is a huge milestone for Quantum, and I could not be more proud of the growth we've achieved, as well as the team that made it possible," said Phil Pecsok, founder and CIO of Anacapa. "Its success is a testament to the vision of the firm, and we look to build on this momentum in the years ahead." Anacapa's management fee is one-quarter of the typical industry rate, and instead of charging one-fifth of total returns (as is common among many funds), the firm charges only a portion of profit generated above and beyond the NDX. This incentivizes performance in a way that previous fee structures do not. Since 2018, the firm has steadily expanded its team and assets under management and is poised for continued growth in the years ahead. For more information, visit About AnacapaAnacapa Advisors LLC, founded in 2018 by Phil Pecsok, manages two market-directional hedge funds (Alpha and Quantum) designed to outperform their respective benchmarks in most market environments. Unlike other hedge funds, it is guided by an investor friendly philosophy and fee structure – with a low, 0.50% management fee, and a performance fee earned only when outperforming the respective benchmark. Media ContactRyan WalkerR.J. Walker & View original content: SOURCE Anacapa Advisors
Associated Press
14-02-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Anacapa Advisors Named Best Asset Manager for Family Offices at 2025 Private Asset Management Awards
The California-based hedge fund is honored at the PAM awards for the third year in a row PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif., Feb. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Anacapa Advisors, a market-directional investment manager, announced today that the firm has been honored as Best Asset Manager for Family Offices at the 2025 Private Asset Management Awards, by With Intelligence. Previously, Phil was recognized as Manager of the Year in the 2024 awards, and the firm was recognized as the Best Private Wealth Manager for Performance in 2023. The Best Asset Manager for Family Offices category recognizes firms who made the biggest difference for their clients over the previous 12 months through research prowess, due diligence skills, and leadership. Some of the key factors that contributed to the recognition for Anacapa Advisors included the fund's consistent returns in a diversified strategy, exceptional overall growth, and expansion of the team in several key areas, which better serve family offices and other dedicated investors. 'This past year has been one of remarkable growth for Anacapa. We expanded our team, bolstered our compliance, and continued to outperform many market-neutral funds. Most notably, we doubled our AUM,' said Founder Phil Pecsok. 'This recognition is a testament to our strategy, our expertise, and the results we deliver. Thank you to Private Asset Management Awards team for this honor.' For over two decades, the PAM awards, which are offered by With Intelligence, carry a legacy of rewarding exceptional performance in the private wealth community. Each year, esteemed industry peers and leading innovators are brought together for an evening of celebration, which was held this year on February 5th in New York City. The full list of 2025 winners can be found on Anacapa Advisors LLC, founded in 2018 by Phil Pecsok, manages two market-directional hedge funds (Alpha and Quantum) designed to outperform their respective benchmarks in most market environments. Unlike other hedge funds, it is guided by an investor friendly philosophy and fee structure – with a low, 0.50% management fee, and a performance fee earned only when outperforming the respective benchmark. Media Contact R.J. Walker & Co.
